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English: The IPCC estimates of the first three reports (FAR, SAR, TAR) did not give a formal definition of uncertainty, whereas the fourth (AR4) and the fifth (AR5) report denoted a 66% likelihood range for values between 2-4.5 degrees and 1.5 degrees respectively.
  • The first IPCC report states that for a doubling of carbon dioxide: "near the Earth's surface, the global average wanning lies between +1.5°C and +4.5°C, with a "best guess" of 2.5°C". In terms of certainty they assigned three stars to this statement, which one meaning low confidence and five meaning virtually certain.[1]
  • The second IPCC report stated that: "No strong reasons have emerged to change these estimates of the climate sensitivity" [2]
  • The third IPCC report states that: "Climate sensitivity is likely to be in the range of 1.5 to 4.5°C. This estimate is unchanged from the first IPCC AssessmentReport in 1990 and the SAR" [3]. This report was the first to give an estimate of the transient climate reponse (TCR).
  • From AR4: "It is likely to be in the range 2°C to 4.5°C with a best estimate of about 3°C, and is very unlikely to be less than 1.5°C. Values substantially higher than 4.5°C cannot be excluded, but agreement of models with observations is not as good for those values." In this report likely is formally defined as being more than 66% likely. Very unlikely <10%.[4]
  • From AR5: "The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is likely in the range 1.5°C to 4.5°C, extremely unlikely less than 1°C, and very unlikely greater than 6°C." Extremely unlikely is defined as less than 5% probable.[5]
  • From AR6: "Based on multiple lines of evidence21, the very likely range of equilibrium climate sensitivity is between 2°C (high confidence) and 5°C (medium confidence). The AR6 assessed best estimate is 3°C with a likely range of 2.5°C to 4°C (high confidence), compared to 1.5°C to 4.5°C in AR5, which did not provide a best estimate."[6]
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  1. ↑ IPCC FAR WG1, 1990, p. 135
  2. ↑ IPCC AR2 WG1, 1995, p 34
  3. ↑ IPCC TAR WG1, 2001 p. 67
  4. ↑ IPCC AR4 WG1 SPM, 2007 p.12
  5. ↑ IPCC AR5 SYN, 2014, p62
  6. ↑ IPCC AR6 WG1 SPM, p14

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Estimates of climate sensitivity by different assessments reports of the IPCC.

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30 March 2019

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