2024 Bulgarian parliamentary election
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All 240 seats in the National Assembly 121 seats needed for a majority | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Early parliamentary elections will be held in Bulgaria on 9 June 2024,[1][2] to elect members of the National Assembly. The election coincides with the European Parliament election on the same day.[1][2] This Bulgarian parliamentary election was initially scheduled to be held before 12 June 2027; however, as formation and approval of the rotation government scheduled to replace the Denkov Government failed on 20 March 2024, the Bulgarian President, Rumen Radev, announced after having concluded a further second and third failed attempt to form a government among the elected parties, that he would now appoint a new caretaker prime minister and caretaker government tasked to organize a new snap election. The election campaign has been scheduled to run from 10 May until 7 June.[3] The current 49th Parliament will stay in session at least until the election campaign begins. The snap elections will be the country's sixth since 2021.
Background[edit]
Following several snap elections, the Bulgarian National Assembly had failed to put together a long-lasting government since 'anti-corruption' parties made a breakthrough in the April 2021 election.[4][5] The 2023 election saw little change from 2022, with Boyko Borisov's centre-right GERB—SDS narrowly winning over the centrist PP–DB alliance. The far right Revival (VAZ) and the populist There is Such a People (ITN) made gains, with the latter re-entering the Assembly after it failed to reach the electoral threshold in the 2022 election.[6][7]
On 22 May 2023, the PP- and GERB-led alliances agreed to form a government with a rotational premiership. Nikolai Denkov, PP's candidate, would be the Prime Minister for the first nine months of the government and Mariya Gabriel, the GERB candidate, would serve as deputy prime minister and foreign affairs minister. After nine months, the two would switch positions.[8]
Denkov resigned in accordance with the rotation agreement on 5 March, to allow Gabriel to become the new Prime Minister.[9] On 20 March 2024, the planned government rotation and signing of a renewed government failed[why?].[10][11][12] Negotiations within the first negotiation mandate ensued across the end of March,[13][14][15][16] but failed to produce any workable governments[why?].[17][18][19]
Two further rounds of negotiations will follow. The constitution declares that after a first failed attempt of government formation, the President must then ask the second-largest party in parliament (PP–DB) to try and form a government; and if this also fails he shall then give a final third attempt to any remaining party of his choosing.[20] If all three stages of negotiations fail, it is likely that elections would be held on 9 June 2024, coinciding with the European Parliament election on the same day.[21]
PP–DB declared on 26 March, that they would accept giving a second negotiation mandate a try, but it would be limited to a negotiation attempt to form a government together with GERB–SDS that fully respected their original rotation agreement of 2023. The proposed negotiation framework would be for GERB–SDS to sign the reform agreement negotiated with PP–DB, while GERB–SDS nominates a mutually acceptable next Prime Minister, and the current structure of the cabinet has to be preserved. If GERB–SDS by a written letter refused this PP–DB proposal, the second negotiation mandate would immediately be returned unfulfilled to the President.[22] A few hours later, GERB–SDS refused this proposal and called for early elections.[23]
On 27 March, PP–DB officially returned the second negotiation mandate incomplete to the President, requesting that the President schedule early legislative elections on the same day as the 2024 European Parliament election.[24][25] President Radev decided the following day to give the third mandate for an attempted government formation to ITN, the smallest party in the 49th National Assembly.[26] The third mandate was immediately returned incomplete by ITN, without wasting any time on fruitless negotiation attempts.[27]
Under Article 99 of the Constitution, when no agreement on formation of a government has been reached after all three attempted negotiation mandates have been tried, the President, in consultation with the parliamentary groups and on the proposal of the candidate for caretaker prime minister, appoints a caretaker government and schedules new early elections within two months from its inauguration.[28] On 29 March, the President appointed the Chairman of the National Audit Office, Dimitar Glavchev, as a candidate for caretaker prime minister;[29] and he was granted a one week deadline of until 6 April to propose the composition of the caretaker government.[30]
On 5 April, Dimitar Glavchev presented his proposal for the caretaker government,[31] and after consultations being held the same day on whether it could be approved by the representatives of all political parties from the 49th National Assembly,[32] the President announced he would sign a decree on 9 April 2024 approving the caretaker PM and his caretaker government, and at the same time he would sign a decree setting the date for new parliamentary elections to 9 June 2024.[33] On 9 April, caretaker prime minister Glavchev and his cabinet was confirmed and inaugurated by the National Assembly,[34] and the election date was set by presidential decree to 9 June 2024.[1]
The Central Election Commission subsequently adopted a schedule for the elections, regulating that the election campaign will begin at 12 am on 10 May and will end at midnight on 7 June.[3]
The current 49th Parliament will stay in session at least until the election campaign begins, where a decision of election recess is expected to be adopted by Parliament. According to MP Ivaylo Vulchev, some of his colleagues even considered — to his dismay — that Parliament should not go on election recess, but continue meeting during the election campaign while however only allowing discussed topics within the realm of "such that it does not look as if someone has started his election campaign from the rostrum."[35]
Parties[edit]
Parliamentary parties[edit]
The table below lists the political party groups represented in the 49th National Assembly.
| Name | Ideology | Position | Leader(s) | 2023 result | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes (%) | Seats | ||||||
| GERB—SDS | GERB—Union of Democratic Forces | Conservatism | Centre-right | Boyko Borisov | 25.39% | 69 / 240 [a]
| |
| PP–DB | We Continue the Change–Democratic Bulgaria | Liberalism | Centre to centre-right |
Kiril Petkov Asen Vasilev Hristo Ivanov Atanas Atanasov |
23.54% | 64 / 240 [b]
| |
| Revival | Revival | Ultranationalism | Far-right | Kostadin Kostadinov | 13.58% | 37 / 240
| |
| DPS | Movement for Rights and Freedoms | Turkish minority interests | Centre | Delyan Peevski Dzhevdet Chakarov |
13.18% | 36 / 240
| |
| BSPzB | BSP for Bulgaria | Social democracy | Centre-left | Korneliya Ninova | 8.56% | 23 / 240
| |
| ITN | There is Such a People | Populism | Right-wing | Slavi Trifonov | 3.94% | 11 / 240
| |
Opinion polls[edit]
The opinion poll results below were recalculated from the original data and exclude polls that chose "I will not vote" or "I am uncertain" options.
121 seats are needed for a parliamentary majority.
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample | GERB—SDS | PP–DB | Revival | DPS | BSPzB | ITN | BV | The Left! | Others | NOTA | Lead | Govt. | Opp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TREND | 12 Apr–19 Apr 2024 | 1002 | 24.9 73 |
15.5 45 |
14.2 41 |
14.4 42 |
9.1 26 |
4.8 13 |
1.7 0 |
1.8 0 |
6.6 | 6.9 | 9.4 | — | — |
| Market Links | 30 Mar–7 Apr 2024 | 1046 | 25.5 | 17.1 | 10.3 |
11.8 |
8.7 |
3.9 |
— | — | 22.7[c] | 8.4 | — | — | |
| Gallup International | 28 Mar–5 Apr 2024 | 805 | 27.4 73 |
17.9 47 |
14.9 39 |
15.2 40 |
10.5 28 |
5.2 13 |
— | — | 8.9 | — | 9.5 | — | — |
| Mar 2024 | The Denkov Government resigns. A snap election is scheduled for 9 June | ||||||||||||||
| Gallup International | 29 Feb–8 Mar 2024 | 810 | 26.4 69 |
19.6 52 |
14.8 39 |
14.7 39 |
10.6 28 |
5.1 13 |
— | — | 8.8 | — | 6.8 | 46.0 | 54.0 |
| Alpha Research | 27 Feb–3 Mar 2024 | 1000 | 27.0 71 |
21.9 58 |
14.6 38 |
11.0 29 |
10.9 29 |
5.8 15 |
— | — | 8.8 | — | 5.1 | 48.9 | 51.1 |
| Market Links | 24 Feb–3 Mar 2024 | 1058 | 27.9 77 |
21.2 58 |
10.8 29 |
15.0 41 |
8.8 24 |
3.9 11[d] |
— | — | 8.2 | 3.7 | 6.7 | 49.1 | 46.6 |
| 24 Feb 2024 | Delyan Peevski and Dzhevdet Chakarov are elected as co-chairmen of DPS | ||||||||||||||
| Market Links | 26 Jan–4 Feb 2024 | 1016 | 27.7 76 |
20.0 55 |
11.5 31 |
14.1 39 |
9.9 27 |
4.4 12 |
— | — | 7.7 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 47.7 | 47.6 |
| Trend | 17–24 Jan 2024 | 1016 | 24.8 70 |
17.8 50 |
14.6 41 |
13.8 39 |
9.6 27 |
4.8 13 |
1.8 0 |
1.9 0 |
3.9 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 42.6 | 50.4 |
| Mediana | 7–13 Dec 2023 | 978 | 22.9 68 |
15.6 46 |
13.5 40 |
12.2 36 |
11.3 33 |
5.9 17 |
1.5 0 |
3.5 0 |
3.6 | 10.0 | 7.3 | 38.5 | 51.5 |
| Alpha Research | 22–30 Nov 2023 | 1000 | 25.9 68 |
21.1 55 |
14.4 38 |
12.8 34 |
11.4 30 |
5.8 15 |
— | — | 8.6 | — | 4.8 | 47.0 | 53.0 |
| Market Links | 10–19 Nov 2023 | 1014 | 26.3 71 |
20.1 54 |
12.8 35 |
14.4 39 |
10.5 29 |
4.5 12 |
— | — | 7.0 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 46.4 | 49.4 |
| Trend | 11–18 Nov 2023 | 1006 | 24.7 70 |
17.9 50 |
15.4 43 |
13.3 38 |
9.4 27 |
4.4 12 |
2.0 0 |
1.9 0 |
3.6 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 42.6 | 50.0 |
| Market Links | 26 Sept–8 Oct 2023 | 1032 | 27.1 78 |
20.1 58 |
12.7 37 |
14.2 41 |
9.1 26 |
3.2 0 |
— | — | 7.0 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 47.2 | 46.0 |
| Trend | 2–8 Sept 2023 | 1002 | 24.9 70 |
18.3 51 |
16.1 45 |
13.4 38 |
8.7 24 |
4.2 12 |
2.1 0 |
1.9 0 |
3.9 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 43.2 | 50.3 |
| Market Links | 11–18 Aug 2023 | 1012 | 26.2 70 |
21.7 58 |
12.8 34 |
15.1 41 |
8.3 22 |
5.4 15 |
— | — | 7.2 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 47.9 | 48.8 |
| Mediana | 18–24 Jul 2023 | 976 | 23.3 67 |
18.0 51 |
15.4 44 |
12.9 37 |
9.0 26 |
5.4 15 |
2.5 0 |
2.1 0 |
2.0[e] | 9.3 | 5.3 | 41.3 | 49.3 |
| Trend | 4–11 Jul 2023 | 1001 | 24.8 70 |
19.1 54 |
15.5 43 |
13.7 38 |
8.6 24 |
4.0 11 |
1.8 0 |
1.9 0 |
4.3 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 43.9 | 49.8 |
| Gallup International | 29 Jun–9 Jul 2023 | 809 | 26.4 69 |
21.8 57 |
14.9 39 |
14.5 38 |
9.7 26 |
4.3 11 |
2.0 0 |
— | 6.4 | — | 4.6 | 48.2 | 51.8 |
| CAM | 3–7 Jul 2023 | 1021 | 26.2 74 |
21.4 61 |
14.5 41 |
13.4 38 |
9.0 26 |
3.7 0 |
1.8 0 |
1.8 0 |
3.7 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 47.6 | 47.9 |
| Market Links | 22 Jun–2 Jul 2023 | 1011 | 27.5 75 |
20.9 57 |
13.8 38 |
17.0 46 |
8.9 24 |
3.8 0 |
— | — | 3.6 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 48.4 | 47.0 |
| Alpha Research | 20–26 Jun 2023 | 1000 | 25.1 70 |
20.2 56 |
15.4 43 |
12.6 35 |
8.8 25 |
4.1 11 |
— | 2.7 0 |
7.5 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 45.3 | 51.1 |
| Exacta | 12–20 Jun 2023 | 1040 | 24.4 67 |
20.1 56 |
14.8 41 |
13.2 37 |
9.5 26 |
4.8 13 |
1.9 0 |
1.8 0 |
3.6 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 44.5 | 49.6 |
| Trend | 10–16 Jun 2023 | 1008 | 24.9 69 |
19.4 54 |
15.3 43 |
13.5 37 |
8.9 25 |
4.3 12 |
2.2 0 |
1.9 0 |
3.8 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 44.3 | 49.9 |
| 6 June 2023 | The Denkov Government is sworn in | ||||||||||||||
| Gallup International | 27 Apr–5 May 2023 | 803 | 26.8 69 |
24.1 62 |
14.7 38 |
13.9 36 |
9.1 24 |
4.1 11 |
3.2 0 |
1.5 0 |
2.6 | 4.3[f] | 2.7 | 50.9 | 49.1 |
| 2023 election | 2 Apr 2023 | — | 26.5 69 |
24.6 64 |
14.2 37 |
13.8 36 |
8.9 23 |
4.1 11 |
3.1 0 |
2.2 0 |
2.6 | 1.9 | 51.1 | 48.9% | |
Notes[edit]
- ^ GERB 66, SDS 2, DG 1
- ^ PP 36, DaB! 13, DSB 10, ZD 3, Volt 1, SEK 1
- ^ As the full data for this poll was not released, it is possible that it includes undecided and uncertain voters. Recalculating the data to only include the numbers for the listed parties may be advised. Market Links often include undecided voters in their final results
- ^ ITN are given seats in the Assembly despite being seemingly below the threshold as None of the above votes do not count towards the threshold.
- ^ Justice for Bulgaria with 1.0%, "Other" with 1.0%
- ^ This poll reported the percentage respondents do not support any party, however the rest of the data was recalculated to exclude these percentages
References[edit]
- ^ a b c d Matey Todorov (9 April 2024). "UPDATED: President Radev Schedules Elections for June 9". Bulgarian News Agency. Retrieved 9 April 2024.
- ^ a b "Bulgaria to Hold Simultaneous Elections on June 9: President Radev's Decree". radiomoldova.md. 5 April 2024. Retrieved 5 April 2024.
- ^ a b Desislava Toncheva (9 April 2024). "Central Election Commission Adopts Schedule for Upcoming June 2-in-1 Elections". Bulgarian News Agency. Retrieved 9 April 2024.
- ^ "Bulgaria's Petkov points finger at mafia and Russia as government collapses". POLITICO. 22 June 2022. Retrieved 10 April 2023.
- ^ "Bulgaria gears for its fifth election in two years on April 2". Reuters. 24 January 2023. Retrieved 10 April 2023.
- ^ Network, EURACTIV (3 April 2023). "Bulgarian elections: Pro-Russia party may 'force' a pro-EU coalition". www.euractiv.com. Retrieved 3 April 2023.
- ^ "Ex-PM Borissov's GERB nudges ahead in Bulgarian election, partial results show". Reuters. 3 April 2023. Retrieved 3 April 2023.
- ^ Христова, Анна (13 April 2023). "102-ото правителство академично до февруари - Денков пръв, после 9 месеца Габриел премиер (Обзор)". 24chasa.com (in Bulgarian). Retrieved 22 May 2023.
- ^ "Bulgaria's PM resigns, as agreed, amid some coalition confusion". Reuters. 5 March 2024.
- ^ Denitsa Koseva (20 March 2024). "Bulgaria thrown into new political crisis, snap general election likely". BNE Intellinews. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
- ^ "Mariya Gabriel's Proposed Cabinet Sparks Controversy: WCC-DB Disagrees with Composition". Novinite. 20 March 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
- ^ Krassen Nikolov (20 March 2024). "Bulgarian cabinet rotation falls, snap election looms". Euractiv. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
- ^ Desislava Toncheva (20 March 2024). "Outgoing PM Denkov: We Can Sit at the Negotiation Table and Finish Them in a Reasonable Way". Bulgarian News Agency. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
- ^ Yoanna Vodenova (21 March 2024). "Wrap-up: CC-DB Ask GERB to Offer Exit from Crisis "They Created", GERB Expects "Political Apology" from CC-DB". Bulgarian News Agency. Retrieved 21 March 2024.
- ^ Petya Petrova (22 March 2024). "Outgoing PM: "Mariya Gabriel Made Huge Political Mistake, We Should All Look for Way Out"". Bulgarian News Agency. Retrieved 22 March 2024.
- ^ Metodi Yordanov (22 March 2024). "UPDATED: GERB-UDF's PM-designate: New Early Elections Must Be Prevented". Bulgarian News Agency. Retrieved 22 March 2024.
- ^ Lyubomir Gigov (24 March 2024). "Movement for Rights and Freedoms Will Decline Third Cabinet-Forming Mandate, Wants Early Elections Pronto". Bulgarian News Agency. Retrieved 24 March 2024.
- ^ Nikolay Zabov (24 March 2024). "UPDATED: Gabriel Won't Run for PM, Clears Way for Early Elections". Bulgarian News Agency. Retrieved 24 March 2024.
- ^ Roumen Yanovski (26 March 2024). "Parliament Ends First Mandate for Government Formation". Bulgarian News Agency. Retrieved 26 March 2024.
- ^ "A Failed Government Mandate: What's Next". Bulgarian News Agency. 25 March 2024. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
- ^ "Bulgarian FM Gabriel abandons attempt to form cabinet as negotiations break down". Television Poland (TVP). 24 March 2024. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
- ^ Dimitrina Solakova (26 March 2024). "UPDATED: CC-DB Proposes to GERB-UDF that Second Cabinet-forming Mandate Be National, Common". Bulgarian News Agency. Retrieved 26 March 2024.
- ^ "UPDATED: GERB Turns Down CC-DB Last Offer for Government". Bulgarian News Agency. 26 March 2024. Retrieved 26 March 2024.
- ^ "Bulgaria's Political Crisis: WCC-DB Returned Second Mandate Unfulfilled - President To Convene The Parties In 10 Days". Novinite. 27 March 2024.
- ^ "CC-DB Declines Cabinet-forming Mandate, President Suggests 2-in-1 Elections for National and European Parliament Is Unrealistic Option". Bulgarian News Agency. 27 March 2024. Retrieved 27 March 2024.
- ^ "Румен Радев дава третия мандат на Тошко Йорданов". News.bg. 28 March 2024.
- ^ "Bulgaria's populists reject mandate to form government, set stage for snap vote". Reuters. 28 March 2024.
- ^ "After All Three Government-Forming Mandates Fail, President Has to Find a Caretaker PM but that May Be an Uphill Task". Bulgarian News Agency. 28 March 2024. Retrieved 28 March 2024.
- ^ "President Picks National Audit Office Head for Caretaker PM-Designate". Bulgarian News Agency. 29 March 2024. Retrieved 29 March 2024.
- ^ Yoana Vodenicharova (30 March 2024). "President Radev Assigns PM-designate Glavchev to Propose Caretaker Cabinet Lineup". Bulgarian News Agency. Retrieved 30 March 2024.
- ^ "UPDATED: PM-Designate Proposes Caretaker Cabinet". Bulgarian News Agency. 5 April 2024. Retrieved 5 April 2024.
- ^ "UPDATED: PM-Designate, President, Parliamentary Parties Hold Talks on Caretaker Cabinet". Bulgarian News Agency. 5 April 2024. Retrieved 5 April 2024.
- ^ Yoanna Vodenova (5 April 2024). "UPDATED: European and Snap Parliamentary Elections in Bulgaria to be Held Simultaneously on June 9". Bulgarian News Agency. Retrieved 5 April 2024.
- ^ "Bulgarian parliament formally approves caretaker government to run country until June 9 elections". Associated Press. 9 April 2024.
- ^ Petya Petrova (11 April 2024). "MP Ivaylo Valchev: Parliament Should Not Work During Election Campaign". Bulgarian News Agency. Retrieved 11 April 2024.
