2024 Tasmanian state election

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2024 Tasmanian state election

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All 35 seats in the House of Assembly
18 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Votes counted
90.8%
as of 29 March, 09:45 AM AEDT
  First party Second party
 
Jeremy-Rockliff.jpg
Rebecca White in Hobart (April 2021) (cropped) 2.jpg
Leader Jeremy Rockliff Rebecca White
Party Liberal Labor
Leader since 8 April 2022 7 July 2021
Leader's seat Braddon Lyons
Last election 13 seats, 48.7% 9 seats, 28.2%
Seats before 11[a] 8[b]
Seats won 13 10
Seat change Increase 2 Increase 2
Popular vote 128,231 101,426
Percentage 36.7% 29.0%
Swing Decrease 12.1 Increase 0.8

  Third party Fourth party
 
Rosalie Woodruff in 2020.jpg
Lambie 2017
Leader Rosalie Woodruff Jacqui Lambie
Party Greens Lambie Network
Leader since 13 July 2023 14 May 2015
Leader's seat Franklin Did not stand[c]
Last election 2 seats, 12.4% Did not contest
Seats before 2 0
Seats won 4 2
Seat change Increase 2 Increase 2
Popular vote 48,371 23,460
Percentage 13.8% 6.7%
Swing Increase 1.5 Increase 6.7

Election results and largest party by first preference by division

Premier before election

Jeremy Rockliff
Liberal

Elected Premier

Jeremy Rockliff (presumptive) Liberal

The 2024 Tasmanian state election was held on 23 March 2024 to elect all 35 members to the House of Assembly.

The House of Assembly uses the proportional Hare-Clark system of voting, with the 35 members elected from five seven-member constituencies. The Assembly's size was increased from 25 to 35 seats at this election, under the provisions of the Expansion of House of Assembly Act 2022, assented to in December 2022.[2][3] The election was conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission.

The Liberal government, led by Premier Jeremy Rockliff, and the Labor opposition, led by Rebecca White, both attempted to win majority government. The Greens and the Jacqui Lambie Network also contested the election, as well as several independents and other minor parties.

The election resulted in a hung parliament, with the Liberal Party remaining the largest party by both vote share and seat total. While there was a large swing against the Liberal Party, both Labor and the Greens only had a small increase in their respective vote percentages, with the majority of the swing going to independents and the Jacqui Lambie Network.

The day after the election, Labor conceded and its leader Rebecca White stated the party was not in a position to form a minority government, causing a leadership election to be held under the party's constitution.[4] Rockliff reportedly began discussions with elected independents and Jacqui Lambie Network candidates to form a Liberal minority government.[4]

Elections for the 15-seat single-member district upper house, known as the Legislative Council, which use full-preference instant-runoff voting, are staggered each year and conducted separately from lower house state elections.

Results[edit]

2024 Tasmanian state election: House of Assembly[5][6]
Party Votes % Swing Seats Change
  Liberal 118,511 36.83 −11.89 13 Steady
  Labor 93,831 29.16 +0.96 10 Increase 1
  Greens 43,249 13.44 +1.06 4 Increase 2
  Jacqui Lambie Network 21,652 6.73 +6.73 2 Increase 2
  Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 7,268 2.26 −0.78 0 Steady
  Animal Justice 4,836 1.50 +0.10 0 Steady
  Local Network 924 0.29 +0.29 0 Steady
  Independents 26,247 8.16 +4.26 2 Increase 1
  Ungrouped independents 5,243 1.63 −0.69 0 Steady
 Seats yet to be called 4
 Formal votes 321,761 94.40 −0.47
 Informal votes 19,085 5.60 +0.47
 Total 340,846 100.0 35 Increase 10
 Registered voters / turnout 408,197 83.50

Results are not final. Last updated at 17:00 on 24 March 2024.

Primary vote percentages by division[edit]

Bass Braddon Clark Franklin Lyons
Liberal Party 38.0% 45.8% 27.0% 34.1% 37.6%
Labor Party 30.0% 24.9% 31.1% 27.5% 33.1%
Greens 11.8% 6.3% 20.1% 19.3% 10.4%
Lambie 8.1% 11.4% N/A 4.9% 8.3%
Other 12.1% 11.6% 21.8% 14.2% 10.6%

Distribution of seats[edit]

Date[edit]

Under section 23 of the Constitution Act 1934, the House of Assembly was to expire four years from the return of the writs for its election, which took place on 1 May 2021.[7] The Governor must issue writs of election between five and ten days thereafter.[8] Nominations must close on a date seven to twenty-one days after the issuance of the writ,[9] and polling day must be a Saturday between 22 and 30 days after nominations close.[10]

In May 2023, Premier Jeremy Rockliff ruled out holding an early election, in contrast to his predecessor (Peter Gutwein), who called the last state election a year early.[11] However on 14 February 2024, Rockliff visited with Governor Barbara Baker to request that an election be called a year early after the Liberal government was forced into a minority, a request which was accepted. It was the second consecutive occasion the Premier of Tasmania called a snap election after Gutwein called the previous state election a year early for a similar reason.

Key dates[edit]

Important dates in relation to the election are:[12]

  • Wednesday 21 February: Issue of the writs, close of rolls and opening of candidate nominations
  • Thursday 29 February: Candidate nominations close
  • Friday 1 March: Announcement of nominations in ballot paper order
  • Monday 4 March: Early voting opens
  • Friday 15 March: Postal voting applications close
  • Wednesday 20 March: The People's Forum (Rockliff v White) broadcast on Sky News Australia
  • Saturday 23 March: Polling day

Background[edit]

Previous election[edit]

After the snap 2021 election, the Liberal Party successfully won a majority of seats in the Tasmanian House of Assembly.[13] A Liberal MP for Braddon, Adam Brooks, resigned on 14 May 2021 after being charged with firearms offences by Queensland law enforcement. These offences were unauthorised possession of a Category H weapon, unauthorised possession of explosives, and dealing with identity documents. Premier Peter Gutwein said that "I made the decision that under the circumstances of both his mental health and in terms of the fact that he's now facing these new charges, that he won't take his seat in parliament." Greens leader Cassy O'Connor said that "there are now very serious questions to answer about whether or not he was ever considered a legitimate candidate by the Liberal Party", given he resigned "the day the polls [were] declared". Prior claims from women were made before the 2021 election, saying they were catfished by Brooks under the alias "Terry Brooks".[14] Despite the resignation, the Liberal Party's numbers in the House of Assembly were unchanged, due to the replacing member being a member of the party.

David O'Byrne (left) served as Labor leader for 22 days, resigning over sexual harassment allegations. His predecessor as leader, Rebecca White (right) returned to the leadership role after O'Byrne's resignation.

Rebecca White resigned as Labor leader on 15 May 2021, endorsing shadow treasurer David O'Byrne to replace her.[15][16] On 15 June 2021, it was announced that O'Byrne had been elected as leader of the Tasmanian Labor Party against opponent Shane Broad, winning 72% of the members' vote and 75% of party delegates.[17] After allegations of him sexting and kissing a woman without her consent were revealed, David O'Byrne stood aside from his role as leader of the Labor Party for the length of an investigation on 30 June 2021, with Anita Dow acting as leader during the interim.[18] This was followed by O'Byrne announcing he would resign as leader on 4 July 2021.[19] On 7 July 2021, Rebecca White was elected as leader after a meeting of the Labor parliamentary caucus.[20]

Resignation of Peter Gutwein[edit]

On 4 April 2022, Premier Peter Gutwein announced he would quit politics, resigning as Premier and as a member for Bass following the appointment of a new Premier.[21] Jeremy Rockliff, who had been the deputy Liberal leader for 16 years, officially replaced Gutwein as Premier on 8 April 2022, with Bass MP Michael Ferguson as his deputy.[22]

Restoration of 35 seats in Assembly[edit]

On 25 May 2022, Premier Rockliff announced his intention to table a bill in State Parliament to restore the state's House of Assembly to 35 seats before the end of 2022.[23][24] The bill restored the size of parliament to its original number before the reductions to 25 seats was implemented at the 1998 election. The change will come into effect at this election. The legislation was supported by the Liberals, Labor, Greens and independent Kristie Johnston.[25] It became law upon its assent by the Governor in December 2022.[2]

Minority government and a snap election[edit]

On 11 May 2023, MPs Lara Alexander and John Tucker resigned as members of the Tasmanian Liberal Party and from all parliamentary committees, and served the remainder of their terms as independents on the crossbench. This left the Liberal party in minority government and requiring 7 seats to reach a majority in the next state election.[26] Tucker and Alexander both agreed to provide the government with confidence and supply.[1]

On 4 January 2024, Tucker threatened to withdraw his support for the government if it failed to act on his demands for mandatory CCTV in all abattoirs in the state and the cessation of planning for a professional sports training facility at Rosny Parklands and a 25,000-seat stadium at Macquarie Point for an Australian Football League (AFL) team in 2028.[27] In response Rockliff stated in an interview on 2 February, that he would ask the Governor for a snap election if Tucker and Alexander failed to agree on a new governing deal that required the two MPs to not support support proposals or changes to legislation raised by Labor, Green or other independent MPs in parliament without the permission of the government.[28] On 13 February, Rockliff announced that the Liberal party room had endorsed a snap election due to there being no agreement reached between the government and the independent MPs.[29] The following day Rockliff visited Governor Barbara Baker at Government House, who accepted his request for an election to be held on 23 March 2024.[30]

Changes in parliamentary composition[edit]

Since the 2021 election, there were a number of changes within the Tasmanian Parliament which affected the balance of power in the chamber.

Seat Before Change After
Member Party Type Date Date Member Party
Braddon Adam Brooks Liberal Resignation 14 March 2021 3 June 2021 Felix Ellis Liberal
Franklin David O'Byrne Labor Defection 23 August 2021 David O'Byrne Independent Labor
Bass Sarah Courtney Liberal Resignation 10 February 2022 25 March 2022 Lara Alexander Liberal
Bass Peter Gutwein Liberal Resignation 8 April 2022 25 April 2022 Simon Wood Liberal
Franklin Jacquie Petrusma Liberal Resignation 25 July 2022 16 August 2022 Dean Young Liberal
Bass Lara Alexander Liberal Defection 11 May 2023 Lara Alexander Independent
Lyons John Tucker Liberal Defection 11 May 2023 John Tucker Independent
Clark Cassy O'Connor Greens Resignation 13 July 2023 1 August 2023 Vica Bayley Greens
Clark Elise Archer Liberal Defection 29 September 2023 Elise Archer Independent
Clark Elise Archer Independent Resignation 4 October 2023 24 October 2023 Simon Behrakis Liberal
Franklin David O'Byrne Independent Labor Defection 4 February 2024 David O'Byrne Independent

Candidates[edit]

A record 167 candidates nominated.[31]

Parties[edit]

Seven parties are registered with the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (TEC).[32] The list of parties registered are:

Status[edit]

Parties Leader(s) Ideology Position Seats Status
Last election Before election
Liberal Jeremy Rockliff Liberalism
Liberal conservatism
Centre-right
13 / 25
11 / 25
Minority government
Labor Rebecca White Social democracy Centre-left
9 / 25
8 / 25
Opposition
Greens Rosalie Woodruff Green politics
Progressivism
Left-wing
2 / 25
2 / 25
Crossbench
Independents Various
1 / 25
4 / 25
Crossbench
Jacqui Lambie Network Jacqui Lambie Populism Centre
0 / 25
0 / 25
Extra-parliamentary

Campaign[edit]

On 29 February 2024, Rockliff stated that if re-elected, his government would remove the protections from 40,000 hectares of protected native forest, allowing them to be logged.[33]

On 10 March 2024, Rockliff committed A$12 million to support building a "chocolate experience" centre near the Hobart Cadbury factory, which would include the "world's largest chocolate fountain".[34]

On 11 March 2024, White put forth plans for a shared-equity housing scheme that would allow couples earning under $200,000 and singles earning under $150,000 to partake in a deal with the government, allowing them to buy a property without a deposit, and the government retaining a 20% share of the property.[35]

On 14 March 2024, social media erupted after a mock website of the Jacqui Lambie Network was discovered online.[36] The URL (lambienetwork.com) is said by various media outlets to be shockingly similar to Lambie's true website, (lambienetwork.com.au).[37] The page is owned by the Liberals as is evident by authorisation details on the page.[38] The page itself is a mock-up of the style of the valid page, instead criticising Senator Lambie and her candidates for a lack of policies in the upcoming election.[39] Lambie described herself as "absolutely ropable" when she became aware of the page.[37] When Premier Rockliff was asked about the page, he stated, "We have every right to point out the policy failings of all political parties."[40]The Tasmanian Electoral Commission has been contacted about the page.[37]

On 17 March 2024, Rockliff announced an intention to amend the Tasmanian Consitution to add a clause that would legislate that if an MP left the party on which they were elected, they would vacate their seat of parliament.[41] The proposed amendment has been criticised by various officials, including former-Liberal turned independent MP, John Tucker. Tucker designated the legislation as "Rocky's rule or else." Among other criticisms.[42] Rockliff describes it as the only way to ensure a stable government continues throughout the term.[41] Labor candidate for Franklin, Dean Winter, speculates the legislation may be in attempt to prevent candidate Eric Abetz from diverging from the Liberals in event of disagreement on same-sex conversion laws, of which Abetz has countering views to his party.[43]

On 20 March 2024, during the Sky News Australia Peoples Forum debate between White and Rockliff, White pledged that if a Labor government was elected in this election, they will construct a public elective surgery hospital in New Town, Tasmania. The hospital is proposed to have 24 overnight beds, along with 8 theatres. The budget is expected to be $160m, and would be completed by 2027.[44]

Opinion polling[edit]

Polling is regularly conducted for Tasmanian state politics by Enterprise Marketing and Research Services (EMRS). The sample size for each EMRS poll is 1,000 Tasmanian voters.[45]

Voting intention[edit]

The latest polling by uComms on behalf The Australia Institute indicates that the Liberals will win 13 seats, Labor would win 8, The Greens would win 5, Lambie Network 3, and there would be 6 Independents. This would indicate that neither of the major parties could win a majority, and instead would need to form a minority government with Lambie, Greens or Independent MPs. Although both major parties have expressed a dislike in forming coalition,[46][47] with Labor outright denying a Greens-Labor coalition,[48] and the Liberals refusing to trade policies.[49] The Greens are holding out hope for a coalition, stating they prefer Labor over Liberals in terms of forming a minority government.[50]

House of Assembly (lower house) polling
Date Firm Political parties
Liberal Labor Greens JLN Ind/Other
4–5 March 2024 uComms[51] 37% 23% 14% 8% 18%
16–28 February 2024 Redbridge[52] 33% 29% 14% 10% 14%
15–21 February 2024 EMRS[53] 39% 26% 12% 9% 15%
21 December 2023 – 4 January 2024 YouGov[54] 31% 27% 15% 20% 7%
30 November 2023 EMRS[55] 39% 29% 12% 19%
15–19 August 2023 EMRS[56] 38% 32% 14% 15%
15–19 May 2023 EMRS[57] 36% 31% 15% 18%
14–19 February 2023 EMRS[58] 42% 30% 13% 15%
8–15 November 2022 EMRS[59] 42% 29% 14% 16%
8–11 August 2022 EMRS[60] 41% 31% 13% 15%
27 May – 2 June 2022 EMRS[61] 39% 30% 13% 18%
28 February – 1 March 2022 EMRS[62] 41% 31% 12% 16%
28 November – 5 December 2021 EMRS[63] 49% 26% 13% 12%
7–9 August 2021 EMRS[64] 49% 28% 13% 10%
1 May 2021 2021 election 48.72% 28.20% 12.38% 10.71%

Preferred Premier[edit]

Preferred Premier polling
Date Firm Party leaders
Rockliff White Unsure
15–21 August 2023 EMRS[56] 42% 39% 18%
15–19 May 2023 EMRS[57] 38% 40% 18%
14–19 February 2023 EMRS[58] 44% 36% 17%
8–15 November 2022 EMRS[59] 46% 34% 18%
8–11 August 2022 EMRS 47% 35% 16%
27 May – 2 June 2022 EMRS 47% 34% 18%
Jeremy Rockliff replaces Peter Gutwein as Premier and Liberal leader
Date Firm Party leaders
Gutwein White Unsure
28 February – 1 March 2022 EMRS 52% 33% 14%
28 November – 5 December 2021 EMRS 59% 29% 12%
7–9 August 2021 EMRS 59% 28% 11%

Aftermath[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ In May 2023 Liberal MHAs Lara Alexander (Bass) and John Tucker (Lyons) resigned from the party and left the government to sit on the crossbench as independents. They agreed to provide the government with confidence and supply.[1]
  2. ^
  3. ^ Jacqui Lambie sits in the Senate as a senator from Tasmania.

References[edit]

  1. ^ a b Adam Holmes (20 May 2023). "Rogue MPs Alexander and Tucker stand with Tasmanian premier to guarantee supply ahead of state budget". ABC News.
  2. ^ a b "Expansion of House of Assembly Act 2022". legislation.tas.gov.au.
  3. ^ Rockliff, Jeremy (9 August 2022). "Restoring the size of Parliament". The Department of Premier and Cabinet. Archived from the original on 29 April 2023. Retrieved 29 April 2023.
  4. ^ a b Holmes, Adam (24 March 2024). "Tasmanian Labor concedes it has lost the state election, party leadership position becomes vacant". ABC News. Retrieved 24 March 2024.
  5. ^ "2024 State Election Tasmania". Tasmanian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 24 March 2024.
  6. ^ Green, Antony. "Tasmania Election 2024 Results". ABC Elections. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 24 March 2024.
  7. ^ "Parliamentary Elections, 2007–2010" (PDF). Tasmanian Electoral Commission. Archived (PDF) from the original on 20 March 2012. Retrieved 1 May 2021.
  8. ^ Electoral Act 2004, section 63 Archived 4 March 2016 at the Wayback Machine.
  9. ^ Electoral Act 2004, section 69 Archived 4 March 2016 at the Wayback Machine.
  10. ^ Electoral Act 2004, section 70 .
  11. ^ "Soldiering on: Premier rules out early election". Mercury.
  12. ^ "Election calendar 2024". tec.tas.gov.au. Archived from the original on 14 February 2024.
  13. ^ Humphries, Alexandra (13 May 2021). "Peter Gutwein welcomes third consecutive election win for Tasmanian Liberals". ABC News. Archived from the original on 13 May 2021. Retrieved 14 May 2021.
  14. ^ Humphries, Alexandra; Fisher, Rachel; Dunlevie, James (14 May 2021). "Tasmanian Liberal Adam Brooks charged by police over firearms offences, resigns from Parliament". ABC News. Archived from the original on 14 May 2021. Retrieved 14 May 2021.
  15. ^ Langenberg, Adam (15 May 2021). "Rebecca White stands down as Tasmanian Labor leader, endorses David O'Byrne as successor". ABC News. Archived from the original on 15 May 2021. Retrieved 15 May 2021.
  16. ^ "Rebecca White stands aside as Tasmania's Labor leader". Sky News Australia. 15 May 2021. Archived from the original on 15 May 2021. Retrieved 15 May 2021.
  17. ^ Langenberg, Adam (15 June 2021). "David O'Byrne elected leader of Labor Party in Tasmania". ABC News. Archived from the original on 16 June 2021. Retrieved 16 June 2021.
  18. ^ Mobbs, Melissa (30 June 2021). "David O'Byrne stands aside as Tasmanian Labor leader, issues statement after sexual harassment allegations". The Examiner. Archived from the original on 13 July 2021. Retrieved 13 July 2021.
  19. ^ Abblitt, Ebony (4 July 2021). "David O'Byrne to resign as Labor leader". The Examiner . Archived from the original on 13 July 2021. Retrieved 13 July 2021.
  20. ^ "Rebecca White returned as Tasmanian Labor leader after David O'Byrne's resignation". ABC News. 7 July 2021. Archived from the original on 12 July 2021. Retrieved 13 July 2021.
  21. ^ "Tasmanian Premier Peter Gutwein quits politics". ABC. 4 April 2022. Archived from the original on 4 April 2022. Retrieved 4 April 2022.
  22. ^ Humphries, Alexandra (8 April 2022). "Jeremy Rockliff, Michael Ferguson announced as Tasmania's leadership team". ABC. Archived from the original on 8 April 2022. Retrieved 8 April 2022.
  23. ^ Humphries, Alexandra (25 May 2022). "Premier Jeremy Rockliff to introduce bill to restore Tasmania's Lower House to 35 seats". Archived from the original on 25 May 2022. Retrieved 25 May 2022.
  24. ^ "Restoring the size of the Tasmanian Parliament". Premier's Department. 25 May 2022. Archived from the original on 25 May 2022. Retrieved 25 May 2022.
  25. ^ Morton, Adam (25 May 2022). "Tasmanian parliament to expand to 35 lower house seats amid concerns about ministerial burnout". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 26 May 2022. Retrieved 26 May 2022.
  26. ^ "Live: Anger over Hobart AFL stadium sinks Tasmania's government into minority as MPs quit party". ABC News. 11 May 2023. Archived from the original on 23 May 2023. Retrieved 12 May 2023.
  27. ^ Evan Wallace (4 January 2024). "Tasmanian MP John Tucker threatens to 'bring down' minority Liberal government over animal welfare, AFL deal". ABC News.
  28. ^ Adam Langenberg (4 February 2024). "Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff calls for independents to be a little less independent or we have an early election". ABC News.
  29. ^ "Tasmania premier Jeremy Rockliff pulls trigger on early state election". The Guardian. 13 February 2024.
  30. ^ "IN FULL: Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff announces early election". ABC News. YouTube. 14 February 2024.
  31. ^ "Record 167 Nominations Received for 2024 State Election". Tasmanian Times.
  32. ^ "TEC Party Register". www.tec.tas.gov.au. Archived from the original on 22 April 2023. Retrieved 29 August 2022.
  33. ^ Morton, Adam (29 February 2024). "Tasmanian premier Jeremy Rockliff pledges to open protected native forests to logging". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 11 March 2024.
  34. ^ Kurmelovs, Royce (10 March 2024). "Pure imagination: Tasmanian premier vows to build world's largest chocolate fountain if re-elected". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 11 March 2024.
  35. ^ Lohberger, Loretta (11 March 2024). "No deposit, no worries: Is Tasmanian Labor's housing promise all it's cracked up to be?". ABC News. Retrieved 11 March 2024.
  36. ^ James, Ethan (14 March 2024). "Tas premier defends 'grubby' Lambie campaign website". The Canberra Times. Retrieved 14 March 2024.
  37. ^ a b c "'Absolutely ropeable': Lambie slams Liberals for using domain name almost identical to her official party site". ABC News. 13 March 2024. Retrieved 14 March 2024.
  38. ^ "Lambie lashes 'fake' website set up by Liberal Party". The Mercury. 14 March 2024.
  39. ^ "Jacqui Lambie Network | No policies and no new ideas for Tasmania". www.lambienetwork.com. Retrieved 14 March 2024.
  40. ^ James, Ethan (14 March 2024). "Tas premier defends 'grubby' Lambie campaign website". St George & Sutherland Shire Leader. Retrieved 14 March 2024.
  41. ^ a b "'Trumpian' move to oust Liberal Party defectors from Tasmanian parliament blasted as 'undemocratic'". ABC News. 16 March 2024. Retrieved 17 March 2024.
  42. ^ "Liberals lay out plan to ensure a 'stable' government if re-elected, stopping MPs from turning on their party". Mercury Newspaper. 17 March 2024. Retrieved 17 March 2024.
  43. ^ Godde, Luke Costin and Callum (17 March 2024). "Till death do us part: Tas Lib vow law to oust quitters". The Canberra Times. Retrieved 17 March 2024.
  44. ^ "Labor to deliver thousands more surgeries with New Town hospital". taslabor.org.au. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
  45. ^ EMRS.com.au website Archived 9 March 2022 at the Wayback Machine.
  46. ^ "White's 'no deal' claim simply doesn't stack up". Tasmanian Liberals. 13 March 2024. Retrieved 17 March 2024.
  47. ^ "One claims 'underdog' status. The other says their party's the favourite. But will Tasmanians deliver a stalemate?". ABC News. 15 March 2024. Retrieved 17 March 2024.
  48. ^ Press, Australian Associated (1 September 2019). "Tasmanian Labor leader says party will never again join forces with the Greens". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 17 March 2024.
  49. ^ "Is minority government really the worst possible outcome of a state election?". ABC News. 20 February 2024. Retrieved 17 March 2024.
  50. ^ "Greens-Labor Threat To Tasmania". Mirage News. Retrieved 17 March 2024.
  51. ^ "Polling – Tasmanian State Election 2024". The Australia Institute. 12 March 2024. Retrieved 12 March 2024.
  52. ^ Hutchinson, Samantha (4 March 2024). "Tas Libs, Labor 'sniffing around' Lambie in search for majority". Australian Financial Review.
  53. ^ "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll". EMRS.
  54. ^ "The Tasmanian State Liberal vote is down 17% since the last election". au.yougov.com. YouGov Australia. 10 January 2024. Archived from the original on 11 January 2024. Retrieved 11 January 2023.
  55. ^ "Trouble-plagued Liberal government dodges poll damage". 30 November 2023.
  56. ^ a b "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll" (PDF). EMRS August 2023. Retrieved 16 February 2024.
  57. ^ a b "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll May 2023" (PDF). Enterprise Marketing & Research Services. 24 May 2023. Archived from the original (PDF) on 24 May 2023.
  58. ^ a b "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll February 2023" (PDF). Enterprise Marketing & Research Services. 2 March 2023. Archived from the original (PDF) on 28 March 2023.
  59. ^ a b "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll November 2022" (PDF). Enterprise Marketing & Research Services. 23 November 2022. Archived from the original (PDF) on 26 March 2023.
  60. ^ "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll August 2022" (PDF). EMRS. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2 September 2022. Retrieved 2 September 2022.
  61. ^ "Decline in State Support for Liberals, Rockliff". Tasmanian Times. Archived from the original on 10 June 2022. Retrieved 10 June 2022.
  62. ^ "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll March 2022" (PDF). EMRS. Archived (PDF) from the original on 9 March 2022. Retrieved 10 March 2022.
  63. ^ "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll December 2021" (PDF). EMRS. Archived (PDF) from the original on 3 March 2022. Retrieved 10 March 2022.
  64. ^ "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll August 2021" (PDF). EMRS. Archived (PDF) from the original on 3 March 2022. Retrieved 10 March 2022.