User:RobLa/CA-21-2018-election

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User:RobLa/CA-21-2018-election contains the results for the the 2018 election for the United States House of Representatives, California District 21, represented by T.J. Cox.

Results[edit]

transcluded from: 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in California#District 21
district: California's 21st congressional district
2018 California's 21st congressional district election
← 2016
2020 →
 
Nominee TJ Cox David Valadao
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 57,239 56,377
Percentage 50.4% 49.6%
County results
Cox:
  Cox—50–60%
Valadao:
  Valadao—50–60%
  Valadao—60–70%
U.S. Representative before election

David Valadao
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

TJ Cox
Democratic

Main article: 2018 California's 21st congressional district election
See also: California's 21st congressional district

The 21st district is based in the Central Valley and includes Hanford and parts of Bakersfield. Incumbent Republican David Valadao, who had represented the 21st district since 2013, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 56.7% of the vote in 2016. The district had a PVI of D+5.

Primary election[edit]

Republican candidates[edit]

Advanced to general[edit]

Democratic candidates[edit]

California's 21st district was included on the list of Republican-held seats being targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in 2018.[1]

Advanced to general[edit]
Withdrawn[edit]
  • Emilio Huerta, civil rights attorney and general election candidate for this seat in 2016

Cox was running in the 10th district race before switching to run in the 21st district in March 2017.[3] Democrat Emilio Huerta, who ran for the seat in 2016 and was planning to run again, dropped out shortly before Cox entered the race.[4]

Results[edit]

Results by county:
  Valadao—70–80%
  Valadao—60–70%
  Valadao—50–60%
Nonpartisan blanket primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David Valadao (incumbent) 34,290 62.8
Democratic TJ Cox 20,293 37.2
Total votes 54,583 100.0

General election[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

David Valadao (R)
Organizations
TJ Cox (D)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Labor unions
Organizations

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		David
Valadao (R) 		TJ
Cox (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA September 20–24, 2018 555 ± 5.4% 50% 39% 11%

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[12] Likely R November 5, 2018
Inside Elections[13] Likely R November 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] Lean R November 5, 2018
RCP[15] Likely R November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[16] Likely R November 5, 2018
538[17] Likely R November 7, 2018
CNN[18] Likely R October 31, 2018
Politico[19] Lean R November 4, 2018

Debate[edit]

2018 California's 21st congressional district debate
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Democratic
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
David Valadao TJ Cox
1 , 2018 KSEE-TV
KGET-TV 		Evan Onstot
Jim Scott 		YouTube P P

Results[edit]

On election night, Valadao held an 8-point lead, the Associated Press and other news networks called the race for Valadao, and Cox conceded. However, mail-in and absentee ballots, which constituted about sixty percent of all ballots cast in the race, started arriving in the days and weeks following election day and swung heavily toward Cox. On November 26, Cox took the lead, retaining it until all ballots had been counted; Valadao conceded the race on December 6.

California's 21st congressional district election, 2018[20]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic TJ Cox 57,239 50.4
Republican David Valadao (incumbent) 56,377 49.6
Majority 862 0.8
Total votes 113,616 100.0
Democratic gain from Republican
  1. ^ Cite error: The named reference dccc.org was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  2. ^ Johnson, Jessica (March 4, 2018). "Fresno engineer T.J. Cox to face Rep. David Valadao, sources say". The Fresno Bee. Retrieved March 4, 2018.
  3. ^ Tolan, Casey (March 8, 2018). "Candidates wanted: Can Dems conquer Central Valley congressional seat?". The Mercury News. Retrieved November 23, 2018.
  4. ^ Appleton, Rory (March 2, 2018). "Emilio Huerta drops out of congressional race against David Valadao". The Fresno Bee. Retrieved November 23, 2018.
  5. ^ Cite error: The named reference Primary Election was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  6. ^ Cite error: The named reference Patriot was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  7. ^ Cite error: The named reference auto was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  8. ^ "Endorsements". TJ Cox for Congress.
  9. ^ Lieu, Ted [@tedlieu] (March 23, 2018). ".@TJCoxCongress is the Dem candidate running in #CA21, a district that Hillary Clinton won. He is terrific & I have endorsed him. Today we in the @dccc announced his placement on the red to blue program" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  10. ^ Tran, Connie (September 12, 2018). "Gavin Newsom visits Fresno to Endorse Democrats TJ Cox and Melissa Hurtado". YourCentralValley.com. Retrieved September 30, 2018.
  11. ^ Cite error: The named reference RtB was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  12. ^ Cite error: The named reference Cook was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  13. ^ Cite error: The named reference IE was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  14. ^ Cite error: The named reference Sab was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  15. ^ Cite error: The named reference RCP was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  16. ^ Cite error: The named reference Kos was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  17. ^ Cite error: The named reference F538 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  18. ^ Cite error: The named reference CNN was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  19. ^ Cite error: The named reference RatingsAndPredictions was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  20. ^ Cite error: The named reference General Election was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
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