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2015 Aragonese regional election

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2015 Aragonese regional election
← 2011 24 May 2015 2019 →
All 67 seats in the Cortes of Aragon
34 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered1,020,106 Green arrow up0.4%
Turnout676,654 (66.3%)
Red arrow down1.6 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Luisa Fernanda Rudi Javier Lambán Pablo Echenique
Party PP PSOE Podemos
Leader since 8 November 2008 31 March 2012 14 February 2015
Leader's seat Zaragoza Zaragoza Zaragoza
Last election 30 seats, 39.7% 22 seats, 29.0% Did not contest
Seats won 21 18 14
Seat change Red arrow down9 Red arrow down4 Green arrow up14
Popular vote 183,654 143,096 137,325
Percentage 27.5% 21.4% 20.6%
Swing Red arrow down12.2 pp Red arrow down7.6 pp New party
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Arturo Aliaga Susana Gaspar José Luis Soro
Party PAR C's CHA
Leader since 29 November 2014 14 March 2015 10 February 2012
Leader's seat Zaragoza Zaragoza Zaragoza
Last election 7 seats, 9.2% Did not contest 4 seats, 8.2%
Seats won 6 5 2
Seat change Red arrow down1 Green arrow up5 Red arrow down2
Popular vote 45,846 62,907 30,618
Percentage 6.9% 9.4% 4.6%
Swing Red arrow down2.3 pp New party Red arrow down3.6 pp
Constituency results map for the Cortes of Aragon
President before election

Luisa Fernanda Rudi
PP

Elected President

Javier Lambán
PSOE

The 2015 Aragonese regional election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Cortes of the autonomous community of Aragon. All 67 seats in the Cortes were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

Overview

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Electoral system

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The Cortes of Aragon were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Aragon, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Aragonese Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Aragon and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Aragonese people abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2]

The 67 members of the Cortes of Aragon were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Huesca, Teruel and Zaragoza, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 13 seats and the remaining 28 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the seat-to-population ratio in the most populated province did not exceed 2.75 times that of the least populated one).[1][3]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Cortes constituency was entitled the following seats:[4]

Seats Constituencies
35 Zaragoza
18 Huesca
14 Teruel

In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method resulted in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.[5]

Election date

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The term of the Cortes of Aragon expired four years after the date of their previous election, unless they were dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Aragon, with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 22 May 2015. The election decree was required to be published no later than 28 April 2015, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Cortes on Sunday, 21 June 2015.[1][3][6]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Aragon and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Cortes were to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[1]

The Cortes of Aragon were officially dissolved on 31 March 2015 after the publication of the dissolution decree in the BOA, setting the election date for 24 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 18 June.[4]

Parliamentary composition

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The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Cortes at the time of dissolution.[7]

Parliamentary composition in March 2015
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
People's Parliamentary Group PP 30 30
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 22 22
Aragonese Parliamentary Group PAR 7 7
Aragonese Union Parliamentary Group CHA 4 4
United Left of Aragon Parliamentary Group IU 4 4

Parties and candidates

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The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3][6]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances 		Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
PP
List
 Luisa Fernanda Rudi Conservatism
Christian democracy 		39.69% 30 checkY [8]
PSOE
List
 Javier Lambán Social democracy 29.02% 22 ☒N [9]
PAR
List
 Arturo Aliaga Regionalism
Centrism 		9.15% 7 checkY [10]
CHA
List
 José Luis Soro Aragonese nationalism
Eco-socialism 		8.23% 4 ☒N [11]
IU
List
 Patricia Luquin Socialism
Communism 		6.16% 4 ☒N [12]
UPyD
List
 José Luis Lajara Social liberalism
Radical centrism 		2.31% 0 ☒N
Podemos
List
 Pablo Echenique Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism 		New party ☒N [13]
C's
List
 Susana Gaspar Liberalism New party ☒N [14]

Campaign

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Election debates

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2015 Aragonese regional election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)     P  Present[a]    S  Surrogate[b]    NI  Not invited 
PP PSOE PAR CHA IU UPyD Podemos Audience Ref.
11 May Aragón TV Pepe Quílez P
Rudi 		P
Lambán 		NI NI NI NI NI 11.4%
(59,000) 		[15]
[16]
15 May Aragón TV Pepe Quílez S
Bermúdez 		S
Sada 		P
Aliaga 		P
Soro 		P
Luquin 		P
Lajara 		P
Echenique 		6.4%
(31,000) 		[17]
[18]

Opinion polls

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The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

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The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 34 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Aragon.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls   Exit poll

Voting preferences

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The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

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The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Victory likelihood

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The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Preferred President

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The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Aragon.

Results

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Overall

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← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Cortes of Aragon election results →
Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Total +/−
People's Party (PP) 183,654 27.50 –12.19 21 –9
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) 143,096 21.43 –7.59 18 –4
We Can (Podemos) 137,325 20.56 New 14 +14
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) 62,907 9.42 New 5 +5
Aragonese Party (PAR) 45,846 6.86 –2.29 6 –1
Aragonese Union (CHA) 30,618 4.58 –3.65 2 –2
United Left of Aragon (IU) 28,184 4.22 –1.94 1 –3
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) 5,708 0.85 –1.46 0 ±0
Blank Seats (EB) 5,323 0.80 New 0 ±0
Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) 4,946 0.74 +0.42 0 ±0
Commitment with Aragon (CCA) 2,844 0.43 –0.12 0 ±0
Equo (Equo) 1,256 0.19 New 0 ±0
Zero Cuts (Recortes Cero) 1,082 0.16 New 0 ±0
Federation of Independents of Aragon (FIA) 648 0.10 –0.04 0 ±0
Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) 616 0.09 New 0 ±0
Aragonese Bloc (BAR) 581 0.09 New 0 ±0
Blank ballots 13,224 1.98 –1.21
Total 667,858 67 ±0
Valid votes 667,858 98.70 +0.20
Invalid votes 8,796 1.30 –0.20
Votes cast / turnout 676,654 66.33 –1.57
Abstentions 343,452 33.67 +1.57
Registered voters 1,020,106
Sources[7][19][20]
Popular vote
PP
 
 27.50%
PSOE
 
 21.43%
Podemos
 
 20.56%
C's
 
 9.42%
PAR
 
 6.86%
CHA
 
 4.58%
IU
 
 4.22%
Others
 
 3.44%
Blank ballots
 
 1.98%
Seats
PP
 
 31.34%
PSOE
 
 26.87%
Podemos
 
 20.90%
PAR
 
 8.96%
C's
 
 7.46%
CHA
 
 2.99%
IU
 
 1.49%

Distribution by constituency

[edit]
Constituency PP PSOE Podemos C's PAR CHA IU
% S % S % S % S % S % S % S
Huesca 26.2 5 26.4 6 18.6 4 8.4 1 9.2 2 3.1 − 3.3 −
Teruel 27.5 5 22.0 4 16.1 2 7.2 1 13.7 2 3.4 − 4.6 −
Zaragoza 27.8 11 20.1 8 21.7 8 10.0 3 5.2 2 5.1 2 4.4 1
Total 27.5 21 21.4 18 20.6 14 9.4 5 6.9 6 4.6 2 4.2 1
Sources[7][19][20]

Aftermath

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Further information: First government of Javier Lambán
Investiture
Javier Lambán (PSOE)
Ballot → 3 July 2015
Required majority → 34 out of 67 checkY
Yes
35 / 67
No
32 / 67
Abstentions
0 / 67
Absentees
0 / 67
Sources[7]

Notes

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  1. ^ Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
  2. ^ Denotes a main invitee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.
  3. ^ a b Within PP.
  4. ^ a b Within IU.

References

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Opinion poll sources
  1. ^ "Sondeo de FORTA en Aragón: PP, 20-23 escaños; PSOE, 16-18; Podemos, 14-16; Ciudadanos, 7-8; PAR, 5-6; CHA, 2-3, e IU, 1-2". Aragón Radio (in Spanish). 24 May 2015.
  2. ^ "Encuestas y resultados - elecciones autonómicas y municipales del 24 de mayo de 2015". GAD3 (in Spanish). 28 May 2015.
  3. ^ "El PP mantendría sin apoyos Castilla y León, Castilla-La Mancha, Murcia y La Rioja". La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  4. ^ "Aragón: Pacto a tres bandas para mantener a Rudi en el Gobierno". La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  5. ^ "Aragón. Encuesta mayo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-03-17.
  6. ^ "El 72% de los aragoneses apoya que se forme un Gobierno de coalición". El País (in Spanish). 10 May 2015.
  7. ^ "Situación política en Aragón". El País (in Spanish). 10 May 2015.
  8. ^ "Podemos y PP empatan en cabeza en Aragón por delante de Ciudadanos y PSOE, también igualados". Público (in Spanish). 5 May 2015.
  9. ^ "Resultados encuesta Elecciones Autonómicas 2015". YouTube (in Spanish). 5 May 2015.
  10. ^ "Rudi pierde a un tercio de sus votantes y queda en manos de C's". ABC (in Spanish). 3 May 2015.
  11. ^ "El PP, ante el minifundio de partidos". ABC (in Spanish). 16 May 2015.
  12. ^ "Rajoy cree un éxito ser el más votado aunque pierda plazas simbólicas". ABC (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  13. ^ a b c d e "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas y municipales 2015. Comunidad Autónoma de Aragón (Estudio nº 3064. Marzo-Abril 2015)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 7 May 2015.
  14. ^ "Sánchez se lanza al ataque como "única alternativa a la derecha"". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 8 May 2015.
  15. ^ "La fragmentación del voto obligaría a pactar a varias bandas para gobernar". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 23 April 2015.
  16. ^ "ARAGÓN, Abril 2015. Sondeo A+M". Electograph (in Spanish). 23 April 2015.
  17. ^ "El PP seguirá siendo el más votado en las CC AA pese a la caída en apoyos". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
  18. ^ "Aragón: Los acuerdos, decisivos en uno de los parlamentos más fragmentados". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
  19. ^ "Aragón. Encuesta marzo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 27 April 2015. Retrieved 20 April 2015.
  20. ^ "El reparto del poder territorial en España en 2015" (PDF). desarrollando-ideas.com (in Spanish). 31 October 2014.
  21. ^ "Proyección del resultado de las europeas en los parlamentos autonómicos". El País (in Spanish). 31 May 2014.
  22. ^ "PP y PSOE tendrían que lograr pactos a tres bandas para poder formar gobierno". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 23 April 2014.
  23. ^ "El PP adelanta en 1,6 puntos al PSOE en Aragón (El Heraldo)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 23 April 2014. Archived from the original on 26 April 2014.
  24. ^ "ARAGÓN, Abril 2014. A+M / Heraldo de Aragón". Electograph (in Spanish). 23 April 2014.
  25. ^ "El PP ganaría de nuevo en 9 de 13 autonomías". La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013. Archived from the original on 3 March 2016.
  26. ^ "Encuesta autonómicas NC Report noviembre 2013" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013. Archived from the original (PDF) on 3 March 2016. Retrieved 2 March 2015.
  27. ^ "El PP mantiene el poder autonómico". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
  28. ^ "Necesitaría pactos para gobernar en Navarra, Asturias, Canarias, Extremadura y Aragón". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
  29. ^ "El PP ganaría en la mayoría de las autonomías (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 13 May 2013. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016.
  30. ^ "La crisis y la desafección harían perder al PP unos 90.000 votos y al PSOE, 40.000". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 23 April 2013.
  31. ^ "Encuesta publicada en el "Heraldo de Aragón" el día 23-04-2013". CUIzquierda (in Spanish). 28 April 2013.
Other
  1. ^ a b c d Ley Orgánica 5/2007, de 20 de abril, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía de Aragón (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 20 April 2007. Retrieved 17 September 2017.
  2. ^ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  3. ^ a b c Ley 2/1987, de 16 de febrero, Electoral de la Comunidad Autónoma de Aragón (Law 2) (in Spanish). 12 February 1987. Retrieved 17 September 2017.
  4. ^ a b "Decreto de 30 de marzo de 2015, de la Presidenta de Aragón, por el que se convocan elecciones a las Cortes de Aragón" (PDF). Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish) (77): 27301–27302. 31 March 2015. ISSN 0212-033X.
  5. ^ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  6. ^ a b Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 28 December 2016.
  7. ^ a b c d "Elecciones a las Cortes de Aragón (desde 1983)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 24 December 2023.
  8. ^ "Rajoy se abona a retrasar nombramientos: "Habrá candidatos en febrero, o no"". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 13 February 2015. Retrieved 6 December 2019.
  9. ^ "Lambán, proclamado candidato del PSOE a las autonómicas de Aragón". El Periódico de Aragón (in Spanish). 14 March 2014. Retrieved 6 December 2019.
  10. ^ "Arturo Aliaga es el candidato del PAR a la presidencia del Gobierno de Aragón tras la celebración de las primarias". Ronda Somontano (in Spanish). 30 November 2014. Retrieved 10 December 2019.
  11. ^ "José Luis Soro, elegido presidente de CHA con el 74,2% de los votos". El Periódico de Aragón (in Spanish). 11 February 2012. Retrieved 6 December 2019.
  12. ^ "Patricia Luquin elegida candidata a la presidencia de la DGA por la militancia y los simpatizantes de IU Aragón". AraInfo (in Spanish). 2 February 2015. Retrieved 6 December 2019.
  13. ^ "José Manuel López y Pablo Echenique serán los candidatos de Podemos en Madrid y Aragón". RTVE (in Spanish). 1 April 2015. Retrieved 6 December 2019.
  14. ^ "Susana Gaspar será la candidata de Ciudadanos en Aragón". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 14 March 2015. Retrieved 6 December 2019.
  15. ^ Tragacete, M. (12 May 2015). "Guerra de cifras en el cara a cara entre Lambán y Rudi". Heraldo de Aragón. Zaragoza. Retrieved 4 May 2023.
  16. ^ "El 'cara a cara' entre Rudi y Lambán en Aragón TV 'engancha' a 59.000 espectadores". Extra Digital. 13 May 2015. Retrieved 4 May 2023.
  17. ^ Vallés, M. (16 May 2015). "El debate a siete confronta dos modelos políticos antagónicos". El Periódico de Aragón. Retrieved 4 May 2023.
  18. ^ "31.000 espectadores siguen el debate 'a siete' de los candidatos autonómicos en Aragón TV". Extra Digital. 18 May 2015. Retrieved 4 May 2023.
  19. ^ a b "Cortes of Aragon election results, 24 May 2015" (PDF). www.juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Electoral Commission of Aragon. 9 June 2015. Retrieved 26 September 2017.
  20. ^ a b "Aragon Electoral Archive. Cortes of Aragon election, 2015. Autonomous Community of Aragon". servicios.aragon.es (in Spanish). Government of Aragon. Retrieved 26 September 2017.
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