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2016 Wisconsin Republican presidential primary

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2016 Wisconsin Republican presidential primary

← 2012 April 5, 2016 (2016-04-05) 2020 →
 
Candidate Ted Cruz Donald Trump John Kasich
Home state Texas New York Ohio
Delegate count 36 6 0
Popular vote 527,067 383,604 153,509
Percentage 48.25% 35.13% 14.02%

The 2016 Wisconsin Republican presidential primary was held on April 5 in the U.S. state of Wisconsin as one of the Republican Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election. Texas senator Ted Cruz won the contest with 48%, ahead of nationwide frontrunner Donald Trump by 13 percentage points. Taking advantage of the state's two-level "winner takes all" provision, Cruz took 36 out of the 42 available delegates.

The Wisconsin Democratic primary, held on the same day in conjunction with the Republican primary, yielded a win for Bernie Sanders, who defeated nationwide frontrunner Hillary Clinton by 13 percentage points. With no other primaries being scheduled for that day by either party and just two weeks ahead of the important New York primary, the Wisconsin primary was in the national spotlight.

The two parties' primaries were held in conjunction with this year's Wisconsin judicial elections, where Wisconsin Supreme Court justice Rebecca Bradley was confirmed for a 10-year elected term, winning over Appeals Court judge JoAnne Kloppenburg.[1]

Despite Ted Cruz's win, the eventual nominee, Donald Trump, went on to win the state on Election Day, held on November 8.

Procedure

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State primary procedure

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As Wisconsin held an open primary, residents could choose freely which party's primary they wished to participate in, when showing up at the polls on election day, regardless of their official registration with either party or none. Polling stations were opened between 7 a.m. and 8 p.m. Central Time.[2]

The two parties' primaries were held in conjunction with this year's Wisconsin judicial elections that included the election of the Wisconsin Supreme Court justice.[1]

Republican nomination procedure

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The Republican Party of Wisconsin pledges all of its 42 delegates to the 2016 Republican National Convention based on the popular vote at the primary election on the basis of a "Winner takes all" provision. However, only the 18 at-large delegates are awarded to the statewide plurality winner, while the 24 district delegates, three for each of the state's eight congressional districts, are given to the district-wide winner.[3]

Candidates

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While twelve candidates appeared on the Republican primary ballot,[4] only three of the candidates actively campaigned for the Wisconsin contest, after all other candidates had already suspended their campaigns.

Presidential debate in Milwaukee, November 2015

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The Republican Party held its fourth presidential debate on November 10, 2015 in Milwaukee, at the Milwaukee Theatre. Moderated by Neil Cavuto, Maria Bartiromo and Gerard Baker, the debate aired on the Fox Business Network and was sponsored by The Wall Street Journal. Eight candidates including Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush, Carly Fiorina, John Kasich, and Rand Paul, participated in the primetime debate that was mostly focused on jobs, taxes, and the general health of the U.S. economy, as well as on domestic and international policy issues. The accompanying undercard debate featured Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and Bobby Jindal who ended his campaign a week after the debate.

Campaigns

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Social conservative Texas senator Ted Cruz, who enjoyed the endorsement of the united Republican Party establishment, including Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, was expected to come out in front.[5] Most polls saw him leading the current national frontrunner, populist New York businessman Donald Trump narrowly by single-digits. Trump maintained he would prevail in spite of the Republican establishment endorsing Cruz, and was "going to have a really, really big victory".[6] With the Never Trump camp closing ranks around an expected Cruz victory in Wisconsin, the third candidate, fiscal conservative Ohio governor John Kasich, was not expected to be competitive in the more populous areas of Wisconsin, and shifted his focus on the more rural congressional districts in order to win at least some of the per-district delegates.[7] Just a few days ahead of the primary, Trump openly asked Kasich to drop out of the race.[8] Kasich was also heavily attacked in TV commercial by both frontrunners' SuperPACs.[9]

Opinion polling

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Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Primary results[10][self-published source] April 5, 2016 Ted Cruz
48.20%
Donald Trump
35.02%
John Kasich
14.10%
Marco Rubio 0.96%, Ben Carson 0.51%, Jeb Bush 0.28%, Rand Paul 0.23%, Mike Huckabee 0.13%, Chris Christie 0.11%, Carly Fiorina 0.07%, Rick Santorum 0.05%, Jim Gilmore 0.02%
ARG[11]

Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 400

April 1–3, 2016 Donald Trump
42%
Ted Cruz
32%
John Kasich 23% Undecided 3%
Emerson College[12]

Margin of error: ± 4.1% Sample size: 549

March 30 - April 3, 2016 Ted Cruz
40%
Donald Trump
35%
John Kasich
21%
Undecided 4%
CBS News/YouGov[13]

Margin of error: ± 5.7% Sample size: 675

March 29-April 1, 2016 Ted Cruz
43%
Donald Trump
37%
John Kasich
18%
Other/Don't Know 2%
Fox Business News[14]

Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 742

March 28–30, 2016 Ted Cruz
42%
Donald Trump
32%
John Kasich
19%
Other 1%, Don't Know 5%
Loras College[15]

Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 416

March 28–30, 2016 Ted Cruz
38%
Donald Trump
31%
John Kasich
18%
Undecided 13%
Public Policy Polling[16]

Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 768

March 28–29, 2016 Ted Cruz
38%
Donald Trump
37%
John Kasich
17%
Undecided 9%
Marquette University[17]

Margin of error: ± 5.8% Sample size: 471

March 24–28, 2016 Ted Cruz
39.6%
Donald Trump
30.4%
John Kasich
21.4%
Someone Else 0.3%, Undecided 7.7%
Optimus[18]

Margin of error: ± 1.1% Sample size: 6182

March 20–24, 2016 Donald Trump
29.4%
John Kasich
27.1%
Ted Cruz
25%
Undecided 18.6%
Emerson College[19]

Margin of error: ± 4.6% Sample size: 439

March 20–22, 2016 Ted Cruz
36%
Donald Trump
35%
John Kasich
19%
Undecided 10%
Marquette University[20]

Margin of error: ± 7.5% Sample size: 297

February 18–21, 2016 Donald Trump
30%
Marco Rubio
20%
Ted Cruz
19%
Ben Carson 8%, John Kasich 8%, Jeb Bush 3%, Undecided 10%
Marquette University[21]

Margin of error: ± 6.5% Sample size: 313

January 21–24, 2016 Donald Trump
24%
Marco Rubio
18%
Ted Cruz
16%
Ben Carson 8%, Chris Christie 5%, Rand Paul 3%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Jeb Bush 2%, John Kasich 2%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Undecided 17%
Marquette University[22]

Margin of error: ± 6.6%
Sample size: 326

November 12–15, 2015 Ben Carson
22%
Donald Trump
19%
Marco Rubio
19%
Ted Cruz 9%, Jeb Bush 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Rand Paul 1%, Mike Huckabee 1%, John Kasich 1%, George Pataki <0.5%, Jim Gilmore <0.5%, Someone else 0.6%, Undecided 9.8%
Marquette University[23]

Margin of error: ± 6.5%
Sample size: 321

September 24–28, 2015 Donald Trump
20.1%
Ben Carson
16.2%
Marco Rubio
14.4%
Carly Fiorina 10.8%, Jeb Bush 6.6%, Ted Cruz 5.1%, Rand Paul 4.5%, Mike Huckabee 3.4%, Chris Christie 3.1%, John Kasich 2.8%, Rick Santorum 1.2%, Bobby Jindal 0.5%, George Pataki 0.4%, Jim Gilmore 0.2%, Someone else 0.6%, Undecided 9.8%
Marquette University[24]

Margin of error: ± 6.6%
Sample size: 334

August 13–16, 2015 Scott Walker
25%
Ben Carson
13%
Donald Trump
9%
Ted Cruz 8%, Carly Fiorina 7%, Marco Rubio 7%, Jeb Bush 6%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Chris Christie 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Rick Perry 1%, John Kasich 1%, Jim Gilmore 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%
Marquette University[25]

Margin of error: ± 5.6%
Sample size: 319

April 7–10, 2015 Scott Walker
40%
Rand Paul
10.3%
Jeb Bush
7.9%
Ted Cruz 6%, Chris Christie 5.8%, Mike Huckabee 5.1%, Ben Carson 5%, Marco Rubio 3.8%, Bobby Jindal 2.3%, Rick Santorum 1.9%, Carly Fiorina 0.5%, Rick Perry 0.5%, Someone else 1.7%, Don't know 8.9%
Public Policy Polling[26]

Margin of error: ± 4.6%
Sample size: 461

March 6–8, 2015 Scott Walker
53%
Ben Carson
12%
Jeb Bush
8%
Rand Paul 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Chris Christie 4%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Ted Cruz 2%, Rick Perry 1%, Undecided 5%
Public Policy Polling[27]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 522

April 17–20, 2014 Paul Ryan
25%
Scott Walker
21%
Chris Christie
8%
Mike Huckabee 8%, Rand Paul 8%, Ted Cruz 7%, Jeb Bush 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Bobby Jindal 3%, Someone else/Not sure 8%
Magellan Strategies[28]

Margin of error: ± ?
Sample size: ?

April 14–15, 2014 Scott Walker
37%
Rand Paul
12%
Ted Cruz
9%
Mike Huckabee 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Marco Rubio 8%, Chris Christie 4%, John Kasich 1%, Undecided 12%
Marquette University Law School[29]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 337

October 21–27, 2013 Scott Walker
28.9%
Paul Ryan
24.6%
Marco Rubio
9.3%
Chris Christie 8.6%, Rand Paul 8.4%, Ted Cruz 4.3%, Jeb Bush 2.4%, Someone else 4.2%, Don't know 8.9%
Public Policy Polling[30]

Margin of error: ± 4.6%
Sample size: 447

September 13–16, 2013 Paul Ryan
27%
Scott Walker
14%
Chris Christie
12%
Marco Rubio 10%, Ted Cruz 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Rand Paul 8%, Bobby Jindal 3%, Rick Santorum 3%, Someone else/Not sure 5%
Paul Ryan
33%
Chris Christie
14%
Jeb Bush
11%
Rand Paul 11%, Ted Cruz 10%, Marco Rubio 9%, Rick Santorum 6%, Bobby Jindal 3%, Someone else/Not sure 5%
Scott Walker
37%
Chris Christie
13%
Jeb Bush
11%
Ted Cruz 10%, Rand Paul 10%, Marco Rubio 9%, Rick Santorum 4%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Someone else/Not sure 3%
Paul Ryan
47%
Scott Walker
38%
Not sure 15%
Marquette University Law School[31]

Margin of error: ± 5.8%
Sample size: 302

May 6–9, 2013 Paul Ryan
27.1%
Marco Rubio
21.2%
Scott Walker
16.1%
Chris Christie 10.6%, Rand Paul 6.9%, Jeb Bush 4.6%, Bobby Jindal 0.8%, Someone Else 1.6%, Don't Know 10.5%
Public Policy Polling[citation needed]

Margin of error: ± 3.8%
Sample size: 679

February 21–24, 2013 Paul Ryan
35%
Marco Rubio
22%
Chris Christie
10%
Rand Paul 8%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Jeb Bush 5%, Bobby Jindal 3%, Susana Martinez 1%, Rick Perry 1%, Someone Else/Undecided 8%
Scott Walker
33%
Marco Rubio
27%
Chris Christie
10%
Mike Huckabee 7%, Rand Paul 6%, Jeb Bush 5%, Bobby Jindal 3%, Susana Martinez 2%, Rick Perry 0%, Someone Else/Undecided 8%

Results

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With 48.25% of the statewide vote, Texas senator Ted Cruz distanced nationwide frontrunner Donald Trump by some 13%, thereby winning all 18 at-large delegates.[5] Out of the eight congressional districts, Cruz won in six, therefore receiving another 18 district-wide delegates, while Donald Trump took home six district-wide delegates from western Wisconsin, where he won the 3rd and the 7th congressional districts.[3]

Wisconsin Republican primary, April 5, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Ted Cruz 533,079 48.20% 36 0 36
Donald Trump 387,295 35.02% 6 0 6
John Kasich 155,902 14.10% 0 0 0
Marco Rubio (withdrawn) 10,591 0.96% 0 0 0
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 5,660 0.51% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 3,054 0.28% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 2,519 0.23% 0 0 0
Uncommitted 2,281 0.21% 0 0 0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) 1,424 0.13% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 1,191 0.11% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 772 0.07% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 511 0.05% 0 0 0
Jim Gilmore (withdrawn) 245 0.02% 0 0 0
Victor Williams (write-in) 39 <0.01% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 1,105,944 100.00% 42 0 42
Source: The Green Papers

Reactions and aftermath

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Cruz's unexpectedly large victory in Wisconsin was widely seen as a turning point for the Donald Trump campaign,[32] making it less likely for Trump to win an outright majority of all national delegates, even if he should win a plurality of delegates. Without an outright majority in the 2016 Republican National Convention's first ballot, the delegates won by Trump would be able to switch to Cruz or another candidate in subsequent ballots, as they were pledged to support him only in the first ballot. Given the Republican establishment's pressure not to nominate Trump, many commentators expected Cruz to be better positioned in subsequent ballots.[33] The theory of Trump's demise proved to be false. As the primary schedule moved to the Northeast, including his home state of New York, Trump increased his margin of victory and won almost all of the delegates. Finally, with his victory in the Indiana primary, Trump became the presumptive nominee.

References

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  1. ^ a b Patrick Marley (April 6, 2016). "Rebecca Bradley beats JoAnne Kloppenburg in high court race". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved April 6, 2016.
  2. ^ Michele Gorman (April 5, 2016). "How to follow voting results in Wisconsin". Newsweek. Retrieved April 6, 2016.
  3. ^ a b "Wisconsin Republican primary, 2016". The Green Papers. Retrieved April 6, 2016.
  4. ^ "Candidates on ballot: 2016 spring election and presidential preference vote" (PDF). Wisconsin Government Accountability Board. March 29, 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 15, 2016. Retrieved April 6, 2016.
  5. ^ a b John Cassidy (April 6, 2016). "Big Wins for Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz Set up Two Showdowns in New York". The New Yorker. Retrieved April 6, 2016.
  6. ^ Adam Edelman (April 5, 2016). "Polls show Cruz, Sanders ahead in Wisconsin before Tuesday primaries". New York Daily News. Retrieved April 6, 2016.
  7. ^ David Weigel (March 29, 2016). "Kasich plays for Wisconsin delegates, not statewide win". Retrieved April 6, 2016.
  8. ^ Allie Malloy; Sara Murray (April 4, 2016). "Trump: Kasich shouldn't be allowed to run". CNN. Retrieved April 6, 2016.
  9. ^ Chrissie Thompson (April 5, 2016). "John Kasich fights back as Ted Cruz, Donald Trump pile on in Wisconsin primary". The Cincinnati Enquirer. Retrieved April 6, 2016.
  10. ^ Primary results
  11. ^ "2016 Wisconsin Republican Presidential Primary". American Research Group. Archived from the original on April 6, 2016. Retrieved April 4, 2016.
  12. ^ "EMERSON POLL: Wisconsin Feels the Bern While Cruz has Momentum Going into Primaries" (PDF). Emerson College Polling Society. Retrieved April 5, 2016.
  13. ^ "Close races in Wisconsin; Clinton and Trump ahead in New York". YouGov. Retrieved April 4, 2016.
  14. ^ "FOX Business Network Poll: Cruz Leads in Wisconsin". Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company Research. March 31, 2016. Retrieved April 1, 2016.
  15. ^ "Loras College Poll finds Cruz tops Trump, Clinton leads Sanders, tight race for state supreme court in Wisconsin". Loras College. Archived from the original on April 5, 2016. Retrieved April 3, 2016.
  16. ^ "Subject: Sanders leads in Wisconsin; GOP Race Close; VA Privatization Issue Hurts Johnson" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. Retrieved April 1, 2016.
  17. ^ "Marquette Law School Poll – March 24-28, 2016" (PDF). Marquette Law School. Retrieved March 31, 2016.
  18. ^ "Wisconsin Republican Presidential Primary". Optimus. Retrieved March 30, 2016.
  19. ^ "EMERSON POLL: WISCONSIN PRIMARY INPLAY FOR BOTH PARTIES; CRUZ LEADS TRUMP BY A POINT; CLINTON UP 6 OVER SANDERS; CRUZ FARES BETTER THAN TRUMP IN GENERAL AGAINST CLINTON" (PDF). Emerson Polling Society. Retrieved March 24, 2016.
  20. ^ "New Marquette Law School Poll finds tight Democratic race, Trump maintaining Republican lead in Wisconsin". Marquette University. June 20, 2012. Retrieved February 26, 2016.
  21. ^ "New Marquette Law School Poll finds tight races in Wisconsin presidential primaries". Marquette University. January 25, 2012. Retrieved January 30, 2016.
  22. ^ Marquette University
  23. ^ Marquette University
  24. ^ Marquette University
  25. ^ Franklin, Charles (April 16, 2015). "Marquette Law School Poll finds Walker job approval down". Marquette University.
  26. ^ Public Policy Polling
  27. ^ Public Policy Polling
  28. ^ Magellan Strategies
  29. ^ Marquette University Law School
  30. ^ Public Policy Polling
  31. ^ Marquette University Law School
  32. ^ James Hohmann (April 6, 2016). "The Daily 202: Trump's double-digit loss in Wisconsin is a big deal. What comes next?". The Washington Post. Retrieved April 6, 2016.
  33. ^ Avik Roy (April 6, 2016). "Ted Cruz's Wisconsin Win May Be The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump". Forbes. Retrieved April 6, 2016.