2015 Andalusian regional election
![]() | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
All 109 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia 55 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Registered | 6,462,627 ![]() | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Turnout | 4,026,282 (62.3%)![]() | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
![]() Constituency results map for the Parliament of Andalusia | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
The 2015 Andalusian regional election was held on Sunday, 22 March 2015, to elect the 10th Parliament of the autonomous community of Andalusia. All 109 seats in the Parliament were up for election.
President Susana Díaz chose to terminate the coalition government between her Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE–A) and United Left (IULV–CA), dissolving the Parliament and calling a snap election for 22 March 2015.[1] Andalusia had been traditionally considered a PSOE stronghold, being the only region in Spain in which no other party had led the regional government since the Spanish transition to democracy.
The PSOE–A regained first place from a declining People's Party (PP). Suffering from voters' anger at Mariano Rajoy's national government management of the economic crisis and the corruption scandals affecting the party nationwide, the PP scored its worst result since 1990. The election also saw a strong performance by newcomers Podemos (Spanish for "We can") and Citizens (C's), which faced their first electoral test since the 2014 European Parliament election.[2][3] IULV–CA was decimated by Podemos's surge and obtained its worst historical showing.
After the election, the PP announced it would block any PSOE attempt to form a government,[4] a shock to many after the party had assured during the electoral campaign that it would allow the most-voted party to access government.[5] Podemos and C's remained reluctant to lend support to Susana Díaz's investiture,[6][7] whereas IU was not willing to align with the Socialists again after their previous alliance broke up.[8] In the end, however, after the 2015 Spanish regional and municipal elections were held, C's agreed to support Díaz investiture on less harsher conditions than initially required, in order to end the parliamentary deadlock and prevent a new election.[9]
Overview
[edit]Electoral system
[edit]The Parliament of Andalusia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Andalusia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Andalusian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[10] Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Andalusia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Andalusians abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[11]
The 109 members of the Parliament of Andalusia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Almería, Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Huelva, Jaén, Málaga and Seville, with each being allocated an initial minimum of eight seats and the remaining 45 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the number of seats in each province did not exceed two times that of any other).[10][12]
As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency was entitled the following seats:
Seats | Constituencies |
---|---|
18 | Seville |
17 | Málaga |
15 | Cádiz |
13 | Granada |
12 | Almería, Córdoba |
11 | Huelva, Jaén |
The use of the D'Hondt method might result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.[13]
Election date
[edit]The term of the Parliament of Andalusia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Regional Government of Andalusia (BOJA), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication barring any date within from 1 July to 31 August. The previous election was held on 25 March 2012, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 25 March 2016. The election decree was required to be published in the BOJA no later than 1 March 2016, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 24 April 2016.[10][12][14]
The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Andalusia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[10][15]
Background
[edit]Despite losing the 2012 regional election to the People's Party (PP), which won a regional election in Andalusia for the first time since the establishment of the autonomous community, the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) under José Antonio Griñán was able to remain in office for a ninth consecutive term after forming a coalition government with United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA).
In July 2013, José Antonio Griñán announced his intention to resign from office in order to "preserve the Regional Government from the erosion of the ERE scandal", a large slush fund corruption scheme involving former leading figures of the regional PSOE's branch, including former development minister Magdalena Álvarez, with former Andalusian president Manuel Chaves and himself being accused of knowing and concealing such a plot. Griñán was succeeded by Susana Díaz at the helm of the regional government.[16][17]
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/83/Susana_D%C3%ADaz_-_14.01.20_Firma_convenio_con_Telef%C3%B3nica_5.jpg/300px-Susana_D%C3%ADaz_-_14.01.20_Firma_convenio_con_Telef%C3%B3nica_5.jpg)
Despite the apparent parliamentary comfort of the ruling coalition, friction between both PSOE and IU remained an issue throughout the entire legislature, especially after Susana Díaz took over the government in September 2013. In April 2014, an episode of IU's housing counsellor awarding several government houses to homeless families without the president's consent resulted in the counsellor seeing her competences removed and in the coalition pact nearly breaking up.[18] In January 2015, tension between both coalition partners reached its peak after IU proposed holding a referendum among its members in June 2015 on whether to remain or withdraw from the government.[19] In response, Susana Díaz declared that "we need a government which enjoys a stability that currently does not exist", opening the door for a snap election to be held within a short time.[20][21] On 20 January Díaz met all eight PSOE provincial leaders in order to seek support within the party for a snap election in March 2015, which she received;[22] subsequently, mutual attacks between both PSOE and IU, accusing each other of breaching the coalition agreement, made it clear that the only solution to the ongoing governmental crisis would come by the calling of a snap election.[23]
An extraordinary parliamentary plenary session was held on Monday, 26 January, where Díaz announced the dissolution of parliament and the subsequent calling of a snap election for 22 March.[1][24][25] Díaz herself had previously declared, during a PSOE rally in Seville, that "It is time for the Andalusian people to speak" and "We shall obtain the [people's] confidence in the ballots".[26] Spanish media speculated that the snap election came as a result of different factors; namely, Susana Díaz's private aspirations to the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party's leadership—despite her publicly refusing it—,[27][28] as well as both Podemos's surge in opinion polls and to prevent the party's exhaustion after all 2015 electoral calls—local and regional in May, Catalan in September and general in autumn—, in a time when opinion polls were still favorable to the PSOE in Andalusia.[29]
On 17 February 2015, one month short of the election, the Spanish Supreme Court charged former Andalusian presidents Manuel Chaves and José Antonio Griñán in the ERE scandal for their possible responsibility in the misuse of the misappropriated public funds.[30] The PSOE insisted on the same day that it would not require Chaves and Griñán to give up their seats in the Congress of Deputies and Senate, despite both incumbent president Susana Díaz and PSOE leader Pedro Sánchez having assured in the past that they would do so in the event of both of them being charged.
Parliamentary composition
[edit]The Parliament of Andalusia was officially dissolved on 27 January 2015, after the publication of the dissolution decree in the Official Gazette of the Regional Government of Andalusia.[31] The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.[32]
Groups | Parties | Legislators | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Seats | Total | ||||
Andalusian People's Parliamentary Group | PP | 50 | 50 | ||
Socialist Parliamentary Group | PSOE–A | 47 | 47 | ||
United Left/The Greens Parliamentary Group | IULV–CA | 12 | 12 |
Parties and candidates
[edit]The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[12][14]
Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:
Candidacy | Parties and alliances |
Leading candidate | Ideology | Previous result | Gov. | Ref. | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes (%) | Seats | ||||||||
PP | List
|
![]() |
Juanma Moreno | Conservatism Christian democracy |
40.67% | 50 | ![]() |
||
PSOE–A | List |
![]() |
Susana Díaz | Social democracy | 39.56% | 47 | ![]() |
||
IULV–CA | List |
![]() |
Antonio Maíllo | Socialism Communism |
11.35% | 12 | ![]() |
[33] | |
UPyD | List |
![]() |
Martín de la Herrán | Social liberalism Radical centrism |
3.35% | 0 | ![]() |
||
PA | List
|
![]() |
Antonio Jesús Ruiz | Andalusian nationalism Social democracy |
2.51% | 0 | ![]() |
||
Podemos | List
|
![]() |
Teresa Rodríguez | Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism |
New party | ![]() |
|||
Cs | List |
![]() |
Juan Marín | Liberalism | New party | ![]() |
Campaign
[edit]Election debates
[edit]Date | Organisers | Moderator(s) | P Present[a] S Surrogate[b] NI Not invited | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PP | PSOE–A | IULV–CA | UPyD | PA | Podemos | Cs | Audience | Ref. | ||||
9 March | Canal Sur | Mabel Mata | P Moreno |
P Díaz |
P Maíllo |
NI | NI | NI | NI | 10.7% (400,000) |
[34] [35] | |
10 March | Canal Sur | Rafael Fernández | S Rojas |
S Jiménez |
P Maíllo |
P De la Herrán |
P Ruiz |
S Rodríguez |
P Marín |
4.0% (150,000) |
[36] [37] | |
16 March | TVE | María Casado | P Moreno |
P Díaz |
P Maíllo |
NI | NI | NI | NI | 14.0% (540,000)[c] |
[38] [39] |
- Opinion polls
Debate | Polling firm/Commissioner | PP | PSOE–A | IULV–CA | None |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
9 March | Celeste-Tel/PSOE[40] | 22.8 | 43.6 | 10.1 | 14.9 |
Opinion polls
[edit]The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Graphical summary
[edit]Voting intention estimates
[edit]The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 55 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.
- Color key:
Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls Exit poll
Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | ![]() |
![]() |
IULV | ![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2015 regional election | 22 Mar 2015 | — | 62.3 | 26.7 33 |
35.4 47 |
6.9 5 |
1.9 0 |
1.5 0 |
14.9 15 |
9.3 9 |
8.7 |
TNS Demoscopia/RTVA[p 1] | 22 Mar 2015 | 33,600 | ? | 26.9 32/35 |
33.1 41/44 |
7.3 6/7 |
2.2 0 |
1.7 0 |
17.5 19/22 |
8.0 6/7 |
6.2 |
GAD3/ABC[p 2][p 3][p 4] | 5–20 Mar 2015 | 2,400 | 65.0 | 27.3 33/38 |
33.7 39/44 |
7.5 5/6 |
1.7 0 |
1.3 0 |
15.9 16/20 |
9.4 7/10 |
6.4 |
JM&A/El Español[p 5][p 6] | 16 Mar 2015 | ? | 68.7 | 24.6 31 |
33.4 41 |
6.4 4 |
1.8 0 |
2.0 0 |
18.3 21 |
10.4 12 |
8.8 |
Encuestamos[p 7] | 16 Mar 2015 | ? | ? | 21.3 27/30 |
32.7 42/44 |
8.1 7/8 |
3.6 0 |
– | 14.8 13/15 |
15.4 15/17 |
11.4 |
GAD3/ABC[p 8] | 16 Mar 2015 | ? | ? | ? 33/38 |
? 40/43 |
? 6/8 |
– | – | ? 12/15 |
? 10/13 |
? |
NC Report/La Razón[p 9][p 10] | 2–14 Mar 2015 | 1,300 | 69.9 | 26.8 32/33 |
33.1 43/45 |
6.5 4/5 |
2.7 0 |
2.5 0 |
15.2 15/16 |
11.8 10/12 |
6.3 |
Deimos Estadística[p 11] | 10–13 Mar 2015 | 1,056 | ? | 24.0 27 |
36.3 45 |
7.9 7 |
2.1 0 |
1.6 0 |
16.4 20 |
10.3 10 |
12.3 |
Celeste-Tel/Prensa Ibérica[p 12][p 13] | 9–13 Mar 2015 | 2,400 | 70.6 | 23.7 29/30 |
37.5 50 |
6.2 4/5 |
2.4 0 |
2.3 0 |
14.7 16 |
11.4 9 |
13.8 |
GAD3/ABC[p 14] | 5–13 Mar 2015 | 1,300 | ? | 28.4 34/38 |
32.4 40/44 |
7.1 5/7 |
1.3 0 |
1.6 0 |
15.5 15/18 |
10.9 8/9 |
4.0 |
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 15][p 16] | 9–12 Mar 2015 | 1,800 | ? | 26.8 32/36 |
33.1 41/44 |
6.8 4 |
2.0 0 |
– | 15.2 16/18 |
11.4 11/12 |
6.3 |
Metroscopia/El País[p 17][p 18][p 19] | 5–11 Mar 2015 | 3,200 | 69 | 25.1 29 |
36.7 45 |
8.5 8 |
1.3 0 |
– | 14.7 15 |
11.0 12 |
11.6 |
MyWord/Cadena SER[p 20][p 21] | 3–11 Mar 2015 | 1,215 | ? | 22.3 26/27 |
33.6 42 |
6.2 6/7 |
2.0 0 |
1.4 0 |
19.9 24/25 |
10.7 9/10 |
11.3 |
JM&A/El Español[p 22][p 23] | 6 Mar 2015 | ? | 65.0 | 27.3 36 |
33.3 42 |
5.5 4 |
2.6 0 |
1.0 0 |
19.4 22 |
6.6 5 |
6.0 |
Celeste-Tel/Prensa Ibérica[p 24] | 2–6 Mar 2015 | 2,400 | ? | 26.6 34 |
36.9 49 |
6.8 5 |
2.5 0 |
2.9 0 |
14.0 16 |
8.4 5 |
10.3 |
Invymark/laSexta[p 25] | 2–5 Mar 2015 | ? | ? | 29.9 | 36.7 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 14.5 | 7.1 | 6.8 |
NC Report/La Razón[p 26][p 27] | 17 Feb–4 Mar 2015 | 1,300 | 62.2 | 28.2 34 |
33.1 44/46 |
7.2 6 |
2.5 0 |
2.8 0 |
14.3 14/16 |
10.1 8/10 |
4.9 |
JM&A[p 23] | 2 Mar 2015 | ? | ? | 28.7 37 |
35.7 43 |
7.1 7 |
2.8 0 |
1.8 0 |
14.9 17 |
6.1 5 |
7.0 |
Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 28] | 20 Feb–2 Mar 2015 | 1,800 | ? | 30.7 36/39 |
35.9 41/46 |
4.1 3 |
1.2 0 |
– | 19.4 18/21 |
5.6 5/6 |
5.2 |
Liceo Andaluz de Economía[p 29] | 2–27 Feb 2015 | 1,500 | ? | 22.2 29 |
28.7 38 |
11.2 8 |
1.3 0 |
6.1 3 |
16.1 23 |
12.1 8 |
6.5 |
Deimos Estadística[p 30] | 18–25 Feb 2015 | 1,539 | ? | 25.7 33 |
33.4 40 |
6.1 4 |
1.5 0 |
1.5 0 |
22.3 25 |
7.8 7 |
7.7 |
Metroscopia/El País[p 31][p 32] | 23–24 Feb 2015 | 1,000 | 70 | 22.7 27/31 |
34.6 40/44 |
6.8 5/9 |
2.8 0 |
– | 16.7 18/22 |
11.0 8/12 |
11.9 |
IMC/ABC[p 33] | 16–21 Feb 2015 | 1,100 | ? | 30.7 39/42 |
37.8 44/48 |
4.7 3/5 |
2.4 0 |
1.1 0 |
12.0 12/14 |
5.0 3/5 |
7.1 |
Celeste-Tel/Prensa Ibérica[p 34][p 35] | 12–20 Feb 2015 | 2,400 | 69.6 | 27.4 35 |
36.7 48 |
7.4 6 |
2.6 0 |
3.1 0 |
14.7 17 |
6.1 3 |
9.3 |
CIS[p 36][p 37] | 30 Jan–17 Feb 2015 | 3,130 | ? | 25.7 34 |
34.7 44 |
6.6 4/5 |
2.3 0 |
1.2 0 |
19.2 21/22 |
6.4 5 |
9.0 |
AIED[p 38] | 2–10 Feb 2015 | 500 | ? | 22.2 26/28 |
30.8 39/43 |
8.4 9/11 |
6.1 2/5 |
3.2 0/1 |
19.0 19/23 |
3.0 0 |
8.6 |
JM&A[p 23] | 8 Feb 2015 | ? | ? | 29.0 38 |
34.2 43 |
8.2 7 |
3.4 0 |
2.3 0 |
16.5 20 |
3.5 1 |
5.2 |
JM&A/El Español[p 39][p 40] | 31 Jan 2015 | ? | 60.1 | 27.8 36/37 |
30.6 40 |
9.7 10 |
4.0 0/1 |
2.5 0 |
18.9 22 |
2.6 0 |
2.8 |
CADPEA/UGR[p 41] | 8–31 Jan 2015 | 1,200 | 62.9 | 29.1 | 35.2 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 14.9 | 4.6 | 6.1 |
GAD3/ABC[p 42] | 27–30 Jan 2015 | 800 | ? | 32.7 39/42 |
36.4 43/46 |
7.1 7/9 |
– | – | 13.5 15/17 |
4.4 0 |
3.7 |
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 43][p 44] | 26–29 Jan 2015 | 1,800 | ? | 30.2 39/42 |
34.7 43/45 |
8.2 5/7 |
3.5 0/1 |
– | 15.6 17/19 |
3.4 0 |
4.5 |
Invymark/laSexta[p 45] | 19–23 Jan 2015 | ? | ? | 29.4 | 39.6 | 8.7 | 3.0 | – | 15.2 | – | 10.2 |
Celeste-Tel/Prensa Ibérica[p 46][p 47] | 17–22 Jan 2015 | 3,300 | ? | 27.8 36 |
36.0 47 |
7.3 7 |
2.8 0 |
3.2 0 |
16.1 17 |
4.6 2 |
8.2 |
Liceo Andaluz de Economía[p 48] | 17 Nov–12 Dec 2014 | 1,500 | ? | 23.8 | 29.9 | 12.5 | 4.5 | 7.4 | 15.2 | – | 6.1 |
Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 49] | 20 Nov–3 Dec 2014 | 800 | ? | 24.9 | 30.9 | 12.8 | 4.8 | – | 17.4 | 2.0 | 6.0 |
MyWord/Cadena SER[p 50][p 51] | 1–27 Aug 2014 | 798 | ? | 28.3 | 31.2 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 18.1 | – | 2.9 |
Invymark/laSexta[p 52] | 21–25 Jul 2014 | 1,100 | ? | 29.7 | 38.4 | 12.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 9.5 | – | 8.7 |
CADPEA/UGR[p 53] | 23 Jun–8 Jul 2014 | 1,200 | 60.1 | 36.2 | 36.9 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 6.6 | – | 0.7 |
2014 EP election[p 54] | 25 May 2014 | — | 41.9 | 25.9 (35) |
35.1 (51) |
11.6 (12) |
7.1 (6) |
1.7 (0) |
7.1 (5) |
1.7 (0) |
9.2 |
Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 55] | 5–18 Feb 2014 | 802 | ? | 30.8 | 35.6 | 15.0 | 6.3 | 2.7 | – | – | 4.8 |
NC Report/La Razón[p 56] | 11–15 Feb 2014 | 808 | 52.9 | 33.2 43/45 |
35.3 45/46 |
15.9 17/18 |
6.0 0/2 |
3.9 0/1 |
– | – | 2.1 |
CADPEA/UGR[p 57] | 8 Jan–7 Feb 2014 | 3,200 | 55.7 | 31.1 | 36.7 | 15.5 | 7.4 | 3.0 | – | – | 5.6 |
Sigma Dos/ABC[p 58] | 20 Jun–27 Sep 2013 | 6,400 | ? | 36.2 46 |
36.9 45 |
14.1 14 |
5.8 4 |
– | – | – | 0.7 |
CUATREM/andalucesdiario.es[p 59] | 9–13 Sep 2013 | 625 | 54.2 | 30.5 | 37.1 | 14.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | – | – | 6.6 |
NC Report/La Razón[p 60] | 8 Sep 2013 | 200 | 52.8 | 32.9 43/45 |
35.8 45/47 |
16.2 18/19 |
5.6 0/1 |
4.0 0 |
– | – | 2.9 |
CADPEA/UGR[p 61] | 8–23 Jul 2013 | 1,200 | 50.7 | 29.0 | 36.1 | 18.7 | 6.8 | 2.9 | – | – | 7.1 |
CUATREM/andalucesdiario.es[p 62] | 1–5 Jul 2013 | 625 | 52.5 | 32.2 | 36.9 | 15.1 | 6.1 | 3.4 | – | – | 4.7 |
CUATREM/andalucesdiario.es[p 63] | 8–13 May 2013 | 625 | 49.8 | 29.8 | 40.4 | 16.8 | 5.5 | 1.7 | – | – | 10.6 |
Commentia/Grupo Joly[p 64] | 7–19 Feb 2013 | 800 | ? | 34.4 | 37.9 | 15.1 | 5.1 | 2.7 | – | – | 3.5 |
Nexo/CEPES–A[p 65][p 66] | 24 Jan–14 Feb 2013 | 1,200 | 62 | 34.2 42/44 |
41.0 49/51 |
13.7 12/14 |
5.5 2/3 |
2.4 0/1 |
– | – | 6.8 |
UJA/Diario Córdoba[p 67] | 21 Jan–8 Feb 2013 | 2,000 | ? | 29.5 | 39.1 | 16.4 | 6.7 | 2.3 | – | – | 9.6 |
CADPEA/UGR[p 68] | 8–24 Jan 2013 | 1,200 | 53.1 | 34.4 | 38.0 | 14.2 | 6.4 | 2.6 | – | – | 3.6 |
IESA/CSIC[p 69][p 70] | 10 Oct–7 Nov 2012 | 3,675 | 67.4 | 30.7 40/41 |
39.2 49/51 |
16.1 15/16 |
5.8 3/4 |
3.3 0 |
– | – | 8.5 |
CADPEA/UGR[p 71] | 11–29 Jun 2012 | 1,200 | 62.5 | 37.6 | 39.8 | 12.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | – | – | 2.2 |
2012 regional election | 25 Mar 2012 | — | 60.8 | 40.7 50 |
39.6 47 |
11.3 12 |
3.4 0 |
2.5 0 |
– | – | 1.1 |
Voter turnout
[edit]The table below shows registered vote turnout on election day without including voters from the Census of Absent-Residents (CERA).
Province | Time | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
14:00 | 18:00 | 20:00 | ||||||||
2012 | 2015 | +/– | 2012 | 2015 | +/– | 2012 | 2015 | +/– | ||
Almería | 29.23% | 32.87% | +3.64 | 45.97% | 48.35% | +2.38 | 60.51% | 60.50% | –0.01 | |
Cádiz | 25.76% | 31.15% | +5.39 | 41.86% | 48.19% | +6.33 | 54.29% | 59.10% | +4.81 | |
Córdoba | 31.85% | 35.96% | +4.11 | 50.23% | 53.57% | +3.34 | 66.50% | 67.15% | +0.65 | |
Granada | 30.86% | 34.80% | +3.94 | 49.43% | 51.86% | +2.43 | 65.43% | 64.97% | –0.46 | |
Huelva | 27.02% | 30.80% | +3.78 | 44.13% | 46.88% | +2.75 | 60.84% | 61.06% | +0.22 | |
Jaén | 32.90% | 36.76% | +3.86 | 52.36% | 54.20% | +1.84 | 70.74% | 69.30% | –1.44 | |
Málaga | 28.09% | 32.22% | +4.13 | 44.67% | 49.61% | +4.94 | 58.05% | 61.08% | +3.03 | |
Seville | 29.97% | 35.91% | +5.94 | 49.54% | 54.83% | +5.29 | 64.93% | 67.22% | +2.29 | |
Total | 29.30% | 33.94% | +4.64 | 47.21% | 51.41% | +4.20 | 62.23% | 63.94% | +1.71 | |
Sources[41] |
Results
[edit]Overall
[edit]![]() | ||||||
Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Seats | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− | ||
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A) | 1,411,278 | 35.41 | –4.15 | 47 | ±0 | |
People's Party (PP) | 1,065,685 | 26.74 | –13.93 | 33 | –17 | |
We Can (Podemos) | 592,133 | 14.86 | New | 15 | +15 | |
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) | 369,896 | 9.28 | New | 9 | +9 | |
United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA) | 274,426 | 6.89 | –4.46 | 5 | –7 | |
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) | 76,839 | 1.93 | –1.42 | 0 | ±0 | |
Andalusian Party (PA) | 60,645 | 1.52 | –0.99 | 0 | ±0 | |
Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) | 31,958 | 0.80 | +0.57 | 0 | ±0 | |
Vox (Vox) | 18,422 | 0.46 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
United Free Citizens (CILUS) | 11,277 | 0.28 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS) | 4,759 | 0.12 | +0.06 | 0 | ±0 | |
Zero Cuts (Recortes Cero) | 3,566 | 0.09 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) | 3,528 | 0.09 | –0.02 | 0 | ±0 | |
For a Fairer World (PUM+J) | 1,984 | 0.05 | +0.01 | 0 | ±0 | |
Blank Seats (EB) | 1,155 | 0.03 | –0.12 | 0 | ±0 | |
People's Welfare Party (PBG) | 498 | 0.01 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
Socialists and Republicans (SyR) | 480 | 0.01 | –0.01 | 0 | ±0 | |
Labour and Justice Party (PTJ) | 389 | 0.01 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
Local and Global (LyG) | 317 | 0.01 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
Andalusian Nationalist People (PNdeA) | 302 | 0.01 | +0.01 | 0 | ±0 | |
Neo-Democrats (Neodemócratas) | 278 | 0.01 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
Regionalist Party for Eastern Andalusia (PRAO) | 254 | 0.01 | –0.02 | 0 | ±0 | |
Andalusian Solidary Independent Republican Party (RISA) | 182 | 0.00 | ±0.00 | 0 | ±0 | |
Change It (Cámbialo) | 165 | 0.00 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
Blank ballots | 54,717 | 1.37 | +0.46 | |||
Total | 3,985,133 | 109 | ±0 | |||
Valid votes | 3,985,133 | 98.98 | –0.44 | |||
Invalid votes | 41,149 | 1.02 | +0.44 | |||
Votes cast / turnout | 4,026,282 | 62.30 | +1.52 | |||
Abstentions | 2,436,345 | 37.70 | –1.52 | |||
Registered voters | 6,462,627 | |||||
Sources[32][42][43][44][45] |
Distribution by constituency
[edit]Constituency | PSOE–A | PP | Podemos | C's | IULV–CA | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% | S | % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S | |
Almería | 32.9 | 5 | 36.9 | 5 | 11.0 | 1 | 9.4 | 1 | 4.2 | − |
Cádiz | 31.6 | 6 | 24.0 | 4 | 18.9 | 3 | 10.4 | 1 | 6.7 | 1 |
Córdoba | 35.9 | 5 | 27.3 | 4 | 12.6 | 1 | 7.7 | 1 | 10.0 | 1 |
Granada | 34.6 | 5 | 30.0 | 4 | 13.9 | 2 | 9.6 | 1 | 6.1 | 1 |
Huelva | 41.0 | 6 | 26.4 | 3 | 13.2 | 1 | 7.2 | 1 | 6.2 | − |
Jaén | 42.7 | 6 | 29.1 | 4 | 11.1 | 1 | 6.0 | – | 5.7 | − |
Málaga | 30.1 | 6 | 28.3 | 5 | 15.1 | 3 | 11.8 | 2 | 7.4 | 1 |
Seville | 38.1 | 8 | 21.9 | 4 | 16.6 | 3 | 9.2 | 2 | 7.0 | 1 |
Total | 35.4 | 47 | 26.7 | 33 | 14.9 | 15 | 9.3 | 9 | 6.9 | 5 |
Sources[32][42][43][44][45] |
Aftermath
[edit]Results analysis
[edit]The result of the election was a hung parliament, with the PSOE winning the same number of seats it had previously—47. Still, it performed slightly better than what most polls had predicted, despite falling eight seats short of the absolute majority they had set as an objective. The PP plummeted to just 33 seats after scoring its best ever result in the 2012 election, suffering the burden of PM Mariano Rajoy's governance in the Spanish Government. This represented the party's worst result at a regional election in Andalusia since the 1990 election, falling below 30% of the vote. The main beneficiaries of the election were parties alternative to the considered "traditional" ones — Podemos and Citizens, both of them, despite polling slightly lower than what early polls predicted, winning seats for the first time in the Parliament of Andalusia.
The post-election scenario, however, turned more difficult than what was originally expected.[46] IU collapse from 12 to 5 seats turned it into a minority force in the new parliament, preventing the PSOE from attempting a renewal of the 2012–2015 coalition—a scenario which IU itself refused, due to the abrupt dissolution of the previous agreement.[8][47] The PP, initially widely expected to abstain in Susana Díaz's investiture voting in order to allow "a government of the most-voted party", announced instead that it would vote against Díaz's investiture.[4][5]
Government formation
[edit]Newcomers Podemos and Citizens became decisive in the election of any future cabinet, yet remained reluctant to support a new PSOE government. The parties presented a series of harsh pre-agreement conditions, regarding political corruption and other issues, for the PSOE to comply with in order to allow for agreement talks:[7]
- Podemos offered to support Díaz's investiture only if she forced the resignation of former presidents Manuel Chaves and José Antonio Griñán (which at the time were MPs in the Congress of Deputies and Senate, respectively) because of their responsibility in the ERE scandal; that political parties were turned into subsidiary responsible for ensuring that misused public money was returned; that the Andalusian government cancelled all agreements or accounts with financial institutions running housing evictions, as well as prompting legislation to prevent any future eviction; and finally, the readmission of personnel in education, health, equality and social welfare sectors fired as a result of the spending cuts, with a decrease in the number of party officials and advisers. In the event those conditions were not accepted, Podemos would vote against Díaz.[48]
- Citizens (C's) demanded the immediate resignation of Chaves and Griñán before entering any talks with Susana Díaz's party.[6][49] Party leader Albert Rivera, however, opened the door to allowing Díaz's investiture if that condition was met, but ruled out any possible entry into a future Díaz's government.[50]
- The People's Party (PP) offered to easen Susana Díaz's investiture only if the PSOE allowed "the most-voted party" to rule in the local councils after the May local elections,[51] as an attempt to prevent left-wing coalitions from withholding the PP from forming the government of the region's provincial capitals.
Susana Díaz immediately ruled out the PP conditions, requesting party regional leader Juanma Moreno to "act with responsibility, without pretending weird exchanges that the people would not understand".[52] Moreno, in response, accused Díaz of "arrogancy" and told her that "with 47 seats one can't pretend to negotiate as if one had 55 [an absolute majority of seats]".[53]
Susana Díaz's investiture for a second term as president of Andalusia remained unclear for one month. She explicitly expressed her intention to form a minority cabinet, ruling out a coalition with any other party;[54] however, until June 2015 she was not able to prevent all other parties from blocking her election. Andalusian law established that if no candidate was elected president in the two months following the first investiture ballot, then parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a new election would be held no later than September 2015.[55][56][57]
Investiture Susana Díaz (PSOE–A) | |||||
Ballot → | 5 May 2015 | 8 May 2015 | 14 May 2015 | 11 June 2015 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Required majority → | 55 out of 109 ![]() |
Simple ![]() |
Simple ![]() |
Simple ![]() | |
47 / 109
|
47 / 109
|
47 / 109
|
56 / 109
| ||
62 / 109
|
62 / 109
|
62 / 109
|
51 / 109
| ||
Abstentions | 0 / 109
|
0 / 109
|
0 / 109
|
0 / 109
| |
Absentees
|
0 / 109
|
0 / 109
|
0 / 109
|
2 / 109
| |
Sources[32] |
Susana Díaz was unable to get a favorable vote in either of the three votings that took place in 5, 8 and 14 May, as all four PP, Podemos, C's and IU voted against her election. Further, negotiations between Díaz's PSOE and the opposition parties broke off when, on 13 May—the eve of the third investiture vote—it was unveiled that the Andalusian government had awarded the exploitation of the Aznalcóllar mine to a governmental-favored firm through illegal means and "without observing the slightest rigor" in February–March 2015, previously and during the regional election campaign.[58][59] With Díaz's government refusing to give explanations over the scandal, all four parties reassured their negative to allow for Díaz's investiture in the 14 May vote,[60] with then-acting president Susana Díaz blaming all four opposition parties of imposing a "political blockade" over Andalusia and threatening them with a new election in the event of her failing to get elected.[61]
PP regional leader Juanma Moreno accused Díaz of "arrogance" and of "asking them to allow her investiture without yielding to their conditions", also asking himself why Díaz kept holding investiture votings if no inter-party agreement had been reached.[62] Teresa Rodríguez from Podemos also criticised Díaz for not accepting her party's conditions, blaming the PSOE for the political instability in the region and stating that a new election would mean the PSOE's failure in forming a government through dialogue.[63] All opposition parties also reiterated their position that they did not trust Díaz to fulfill any compromise once she did get elected.[64]
New investiture votes were initially postponed until after the 24 May Spanish regional and local elections as a result of the electoral campaign centering the political focus.[65] However, on 5 June, on the impossibility to have Díaz formally invested, the PSOE threatened the opposition parties with letting the legal time limit for the automatic dissolution of the parliament to expire should an agreement not be reached with anyone before Tuesday, 9 June.[66] In the end, the PSOE and C's reached an agreement, with the latter accepting to support Díaz to end the parliamentary deadlock and prevent a new election, lifting off their requirement for Chaves and Griñan's resignations before considering to enter negotiations with the PSOE.[9]
Notes
[edit]References
[edit]- Opinion poll sources
- ^ "El PSOE ganaría las elecciones en Andalucía, lejos de la mayoría absoluta". Telemadrid (in Spanish). 22 March 2015. Archived from the original on 2 February 2017. Retrieved 31 October 2015.
- ^ "El quintupartidismo aterriza en Andalucía, según la encuesta de GAD3 para ABC". ABC (in Spanish). 22 March 2015. Archived from the original on 2 February 2017. Retrieved 26 January 2017.
- ^ "Los sondeos a pie de urna dan la victoria al PSOE con 41-44 escaños y 19-22 a Podemos". Público (in Spanish). 22 March 2015. Archived from the original on 2 February 2017. Retrieved 26 January 2017.
- ^ "22-Marzo-2015". GAD3 (in Spanish). 22 March 2015. Archived from the original on 2 April 2015. Retrieved 22 March 2015.
- ^ "Andalucía: Ciudadanos lograría 12 escaños en plena tendencia al alza". El Español (in Spanish). 16 March 2015. Archived from the original on 2 February 2017. Retrieved 26 January 2017.
- ^ "Andalucía, Situación Electoral 2015 para El Español (16.03.2015)" (PDF). Jaime Miquel & Asociados (in Spanish). 16 March 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 9 March 2016. Retrieved 5 March 2016.
- ^ "El PSOE ganará las elecciones andaluzas sin mayoría absoluta". Encuestamos (in Spanish). 16 March 2015. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016. Retrieved 31 October 2015.
- ^ "Última estimación publicable de GAD3". GAD3 (in Spanish). 16 March 2015. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016. Retrieved 16 March 2015.
- ^ "El PSOE se estanca, condenado a pactar". La Razón (in Spanish). 16 March 2015. Archived from the original on 2 February 2017. Retrieved 26 January 2017.
- ^ "La recta final de los comicios" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 16 March 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2 April 2015. Retrieved 15 March 2015.
- ^ "ANDALUCÍA, Marzo 2015. Sondeo Deimos". Electograph (in Spanish). 15 March 2015. Archived from the original on 29 June 2020. Retrieved 29 June 2020.
- ^ "El PSOE aumenta su ventaja con el PP, afectado por el auge de Ciudadanos". La Opinión de Málaga (in Spanish). 15 March 2015. Archived from the original on 2 February 2017. Retrieved 26 January 2017.
- ^ "El PSOE, mejor cuanto más cerca". Diario Jaén (in Spanish). 15 March 2015. Archived from the original on 2 February 2017. Retrieved 26 January 2017.
- ^ "El PSOE gana en Andalucía, pero se queda más lejos de la mayoría absoluta". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 15 March 2015. Archived from the original on 26 April 2022. Retrieved 16 May 2015.
- ^ "Ciudadanos, clave para gobernar". El Mundo (in Spanish). 14 March 2015. Archived from the original on 2 February 2017. Retrieved 26 January 2017.
- ^ "Encuesta SIGMA-DOS". El Mundo (in Spanish). 14 March 2015. Archived from the original on 14 March 2015. Retrieved 14 March 2015.
- ^ "La estabilidad de Andalucía pasa por un acuerdo PSOE-Ciudadanos". El País (in Spanish). 14 March 2015. Archived from the original on 15 March 2015. Retrieved 15 March 2015.
- ^ "Estimación de resultados en las elecciones autonómicas andaluzas". El País (in Spanish). 13 March 2015. Archived from the original on 18 September 2017. Retrieved 18 September 2017.
- ^ "Elecciones Andaluzas: sondeo preelectoral". Blogs El País (in Spanish). 16 March 2015. Archived from the original on 2 February 2017. Retrieved 26 January 2017.
- ^ "El PSOE gana claramente en Andalucía pero queda lejos de la mayoría absoluta". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 12 March 2015. Archived from the original on 2 February 2017. Retrieved 26 January 2017.
- ^ "El ObSERvatorio de la Cadena SER. Estudio preelectoral de Andalucía (13/3/2015)" (PDF). MyWord (in Spanish). 13 March 2015. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2 April 2015. Retrieved 13 March 2015.
- ^ "Díaz avanza en Andalucía, pero tendrá que explorar nuevos pactos". El Español (in Spanish). 7 March 2015. Archived from the original on 2 February 2017. Retrieved 26 January 2017.
- ^ a b c "Andalucía, Situación Electoral 2015 para El Español (06.03.2015)" (PDF). Jaime Miquel & Asociados (in Spanish). 7 March 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 9 March 2016. Retrieved 5 March 2016.
- ^ "Ciudadanos ahonda en la caída del PP y Podemos frena su impulso inicial". La Opinión de Málaga (in Spanish). 9 March 2015. Archived from the original on 9 March 2015. Retrieved 8 March 2015.
- ^ "El PSOE ganaría las elecciones en Andalucía con más de un 36% de los votos". laSexta (in Spanish). 6 March 2015. Archived from the original on 2 February 2017. Retrieved 26 January 2017.
- ^ "El PP gana 2,5 puntos sobre el CIS andaluz mientras Podemos pierde 5". La Razón (in Spanish). 8 March 2015. Archived from the original on 2 April 2015. Retrieved 8 March 2015.
- ^ "ANDALUCÍA, Marzo 2015. Sondeo NC Report". Electograph (in Spanish). 8 March 2015. Archived from the original on 29 June 2020. Retrieved 29 June 2020.
- ^ "El PSOE ganará las elecciones pero tendrá que pactar para gobernar". Diario de Sevilla (in Spanish). 6 March 2015. Archived from the original on 2 February 2017. Retrieved 26 January 2017.
- ^ "El PSOE ganaría las elecciones pero sigue perdiendo apoyos". Andalucía Press (in Spanish). 10 March 2015. Archived from the original on 2 April 2015.
- ^ "La paradoja del 22M". El Correo de Andalucía (in Spanish). 8 March 2015. Archived from the original on 8 March 2016. Retrieved 31 October 2015.
- ^ "Susana Díaz ganará, pero deberá pactar". El País (in Spanish). 28 February 2015. Archived from the original on 1 March 2015. Retrieved 1 March 2015.
- ^ "Elecciones Andaluzas: sondeo preelectoral". Blogs El País (in Spanish). 2 March 2015. Archived from the original on 2 February 2017. Retrieved 26 January 2017.
- ^ "El PSOE gana en Andalucía, pero se queda más lejos de la mayoría absoluta". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 28 February 2015. Archived from the original on 26 April 2022. Retrieved 16 May 2015.
- ^ "El PSOE mantiene la ventaja con el PP pero sigue lejos de la mayoría absoluta". La Opinión de Málaga (in Spanish). 28 February 2015. Archived from the original on 3 March 2015. Retrieved 28 February 2015.
- ^ "El PSOE afianza su mayoría en las elecciones autonómicas". Diario Córdoba (in Spanish). 28 February 2015. Archived from the original on 2 February 2017. Retrieved 26 January 2017.
- ^ "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas 2015. Comunidad Autónoma de Andalucía (Estudio nº 3053. Enero-Febrero 2015)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 5 March 2015. Archived (PDF) from the original on 8 March 2015. Retrieved 5 March 2015.
- ^ "Andalucía abre el ciclo electoral con Díaz abocada a los pactos de gobierno". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 6 March 2015. Archived from the original on 10 September 2017. Retrieved 10 September 2017.
- ^ "Encuesta de Andalucía. Febrero 2015". Asociación Independiente de Estadísticas para la Democracia (in Spanish). 15 February 2015. Archived from the original on 2 February 2017. Retrieved 14 February 2015.
- ^ "Susana Díaz, obligada a pactar con PP o con Podemos para gobernar". El Español (in Spanish). 1 February 2015. Archived from the original on 2 February 2017. Retrieved 26 January 2017.
- ^ "Andalucía, Situación Electoral 2015 para El Español (31.01.2015)" (PDF). Jaime Miquel & Asociados (in Spanish). 1 February 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 9 March 2016. Retrieved 5 March 2016.
- ^ "Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Invierno 2015" (PDF). CADPEA (in Spanish). 13 February 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2 February 2017.
- ^ "El PSOE gana en Andalucía, pero se queda más lejos de la mayoría absoluta". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 1 February 2015. Archived from the original on 26 April 2022. Retrieved 21 February 2015.
- ^ "Susana Díaz tendrá que pactar con quienes no quiere pactar". El Mundo (in Spanish). 1 February 2015. Archived from the original on 2 February 2017. Retrieved 26 January 2017.
- ^ "Encuesta electoral en Andalucía". El Mundo (in Spanish). 1 February 2015. Archived from the original on 1 February 2015. Retrieved 1 February 2015.
- ^ "El PSOE sería la fuerza más votada en Andalucía con casi el 40% de los votos". laSexta (in Spanish). 24 January 2015. Archived from the original on 2 February 2017. Retrieved 26 January 2017.
- ^ "El PSOE ganará las andaluzas lejos de la mayoría pero frena el efecto Podemos". La Opinión de Málaga (in Spanish). 8 February 2015. Archived from the original on 5 November 2015. Retrieved 31 October 2015.
- ^ "El PSOE vuelve a vencer". Diario Jaén (in Spanish). 8 February 2015. Archived from the original on 8 February 2015.
- ^ "El PA triplica su intención de voto según el Barómetro del Liceo Andaluz de Economía". Andalucía Press (in Spanish). 16 December 2014. Archived from the original on 16 December 2014.
- ^ "El PSOE mantiene la primacía a pesar del empuje de Podemos". EuropaSur (in Spanish). 14 December 2014. Archived from the original on 2 February 2017. Retrieved 26 January 2017.
- ^ "El PSOE ganaría las elecciones autonómicas en Andalucía con el 31,2% de los votos al PP, que lograría el 28,3%". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 4 September 2014. Archived from the original on 2 February 2017. Retrieved 26 January 2017.
- ^ "El ObSERvatorio de la Cadena SER. Clima político en Andalucía (4/9/2014)" (PDF). MyWord (in Spanish). 4 September 2014. Archived (PDF) from the original on 4 September 2014. Retrieved 4 September 2014.
- ^ "El PSOE-A aumenta su ventaja para las autonómicas con Susana Díaz como la líder más valorada por delante de Pablo Iglesias". laSexta (in Spanish). 30 July 2014. Archived from the original on 2 February 2017. Retrieved 26 January 2017.
- ^ "Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Verano 2014" (PDF). CADPEA (in Spanish). 1 August 2014. Archived from the original (PDF) on 10 August 2014.
- ^ "Proyección del resultado de las europeas en los parlamentos autonómicos". El País (in Spanish). 31 May 2014. Archived from the original on 16 July 2015. Retrieved 31 October 2015.
- ^ "Susana Díaz adelanta al PP en un clima de deterioro del bipartidismo". Diario de Sevilla (in Spanish). 28 February 2014. Archived from the original on 2 February 2017. Retrieved 26 January 2017.
- ^ "Radiografía del voto. Encuesta elecciones autonómicas" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 16 February 2014. Archived from the original (PDF) on 22 February 2014. Retrieved 16 February 2014.
- ^ "Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Invierno 2014" (PDF). CADPEA (in Spanish). 19 February 2014. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2 February 2017.
- ^ "El PP y el PSOE, en empate técnico tras la sucesión de Griñán". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 13 October 2013. Archived from the original on 26 April 2022. Retrieved 29 January 2015.
- ^ ""Publímetro" de Andalucía. Estudio de opinión de Andalucía – Septiembre 2013" (PDF). andalucesdiario.es (in Spanish). 2 October 2013. Archived from the original (PDF) on 8 October 2013.
- ^ "El "efecto" Díaz no devuelve la mayoría absoluta al PSOE". La Razón (in Spanish). 9 September 2013. Archived from the original on 2 February 2017. Retrieved 26 January 2017.
- ^ "Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Verano 2013" (PDF). CADPEA (in Spanish). 30 July 2013. Archived from the original (PDF) on 5 September 2014.
- ^ "El PP acorta distancias con el PSOE, que baja 3,5 puntos". andalucesdiario.es (in Spanish). 15 July 2013. Archived from the original on 18 July 2013.
- ^ "IU sube con fuerza, el PSOE recupera terreno y el PP se desploma". andalucesdiario.es (in Spanish). 28 May 2013. Archived from the original on 7 June 2013.
- ^ "El Gobierno de Griñán se refuerza por la caída del PP y la subida de IU". Diario de Sevilla (in Spanish). 28 February 2013. Archived from the original on 9 March 2016. Retrieved 31 October 2015.
- ^ "Instantáneas de la Sociedad Andaluza. Febrero 2013" (PDF). CEPES–A (in Spanish). 25 February 2013. Archived from the original (PDF) on 4 March 2016.
- ^ "El PSOE-A ganaría las autonómicas con 6,8 puntos sobre el PP-A, según CEPES". Ideal.es (in Spanish). 25 February 2013. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016. Retrieved 26 August 2013.
- ^ "El PP sigue en caída libre y el PSOE no logra remontar su peor resultado". Diario Córdoba (in Spanish). 28 February 2013. Archived from the original on 2 February 2017. Retrieved 31 October 2015.
- ^ "Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Invierno 2013" (PDF). CADPEA (in Spanish). 15 February 2013. Archived from the original (PDF) on 12 June 2013.
- ^ "Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. Diciembre, 2012" (PDF). IESA (in Spanish). 14 December 2012. Archived from the original (PDF) on 7 November 2020. Retrieved 5 January 2018.
- ^ "Espectacular caída del PP en Andalucía". Diario Sur (in Spanish). 14 December 2012. Archived from the original on 18 December 2012. Retrieved 26 August 2013.
- ^ "Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Verano 2012" (PDF). CADPEA (in Spanish). 18 July 2012. Archived from the original (PDF) on 12 July 2013.
- Other
- ^ a b "Susana Díaz rompe con IU y adelanta las elecciones andaluzas a marzo". El País (in Spanish). 25 January 2015. Archived from the original on 6 December 2019. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "Andalucía, el primer test electoral de la nueva era de la política española". La Nación (in Spanish). 22 March 2015. Archived from the original on 7 September 2020. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "Podemos se consolida en el primer test electoral de 2015". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 23 March 2015. Archived from the original on 3 February 2020. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ a b "El PP votará en contra de Díaz para que el PSOE se 'retrate' con Podemos o Ciudadanos". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 24 March 2015. Archived from the original on 7 September 2020. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ a b "El PP anuncia ahora que votará en contra de la investidura de Díaz". El País (in Spanish). 24 March 2015. Archived from the original on 30 March 2015. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ a b "Ciudadanos votará en contra de la investidura de Susana Díaz". ABC (in Spanish). 23 March 2015. Archived from the original on 29 November 2018. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ a b "Podemos hace esperar a Díaz". El Mundo (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 7 September 2020. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ a b "El no del PP-A a la investidura obliga al resto de partidos a tomar postura". eldiario.es. 25 March 2015. Archived from the original on 1 May 2019. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ a b "Susana Díaz será investida el jueves tras el acuerdo con Ciudadanos". El Mundo (in Spanish). 9 June 2015. Archived from the original on 24 February 2020. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ a b c d Ley Orgánica 2/2007, de 19 de marzo, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía para Andalucía (Organic Law 2) (in Spanish). 19 March 2007. Retrieved 16 September 2017. "BOE.es - Documento consolidado BOE-A-2007-5825". Archived from the original on 23 February 2017. Retrieved 22 February 2017.
{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link) - ^ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Archived from the original on 31 August 2021. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
- ^ a b c Ley 1/1986, de 2 de enero, Electoral de Andalucía (Law 1) (in Spanish). 2 January 1986. Retrieved 16 September 2017. "BOE.es - Documento consolidado BOE-A-1986-2788". Archived from the original on 23 February 2017. Retrieved 22 February 2017.
{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link) - ^ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
- ^ a b Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 28 December 2016. "BOE.es - Documento consolidado BOE-A-1985-11672". Archived from the original on 8 August 2017. Retrieved 16 September 2017.
{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link) - ^ Government of the Autonomous Community of Andalusia Law of 2006 (Law 6) (in Spanish). 24 October 2006. Retrieved 17 September 2017. "BOE.es - Documento consolidado BOE-A-2006-20848". Archived from the original on 17 September 2017. Retrieved 17 September 2017.
{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link) - ^ "Griñán precipita su retirada de la Junta y su relevo con Susana Díaz". El País (in Spanish). 23 July 2013. Archived from the original on 20 January 2015. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "Griñán: "Quiero preservar a la Junta de la erosión por el caso de los ERE"". El País (in Spanish). 27 August 2013. Archived from the original on 15 March 2017. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "Susana Díaz retira las competencias de vivienda a IU por un plan para okupas". El País (in Spanish). 9 April 2014. Archived from the original on 20 January 2015. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "IU plantea un referéndum para junio sobre su permanencia en el Gobierno andaluz". ABC (in Spanish). 21 December 2014. Archived from the original on 28 April 2019. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "La tensión entre PSOE e IU abona el adelanto electoral en Andalucía". El País (in Spanish). 19 January 2015. Archived from the original on 20 January 2015. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "Díaz abre la puerta al adelanto electoral: 'No hay estabilidad'". El Mundo (in Spanish). 19 January 2015. Archived from the original on 3 February 2020. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "Díaz recibe el apoyo del PSOE andaluz ante un posible adelanto electoral, que IU rechaza" (in Spanish). RTVE. 20 January 2015. Archived from the original on 8 April 2015. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "El PSOE da por hecho el adelanto a marzo de las elecciones en Andalucía". El País (in Spanish). 20 January 2015. Archived from the original on 3 March 2016. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "El Parlamento fija un pleno el lunes ante el eventual adelanto electoral". El Mundo (in Spanish). 22 January 2015. Archived from the original on 3 February 2020. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "Susana Díaz anuncia un pleno extraordinario para el lunes donde puede hacer oficial el adelanto de las autonómicas". El Economista (in Spanish). 22 January 2015. Archived from the original on 3 February 2020. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "Susana Díaz zanja el debate sobre su candidatura a las primarias del PSOE". El País (in Spanish). 24 January 2015. Archived from the original on 27 January 2015. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "El PSOE sólo quiere ya a Susana Díaz como candidata". El Mundo (in Spanish). 21 January 2015. Archived from the original on 3 August 2020. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "Susana Díaz, una presidenta andaluza que mira a Madrid". ABC (in Spanish). 26 January 2015. Archived from the original on 27 November 2018. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "Susana Díaz abona el adelanto electoral y será la primera en enfrentarse a Podemos". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 20 January 2015. Archived from the original on 26 January 2015. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "La imputación de Chaves y Griñán en los ERE calienta la campaña andaluza". El País (in Spanish). 17 February 2015. Archived from the original on 10 November 2016. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "Decreto de la Presidenta 1/2015, de 26 de enero, de disolución del Parlamento de Andalucía y de convocatoria de elecciones" (PDF). Boletín Oficial de la Junta de Andalucía (in Spanish) (17): 11–12. 27 January 2015. ISSN 2253-802X. Archived (PDF) from the original on 20 March 2022. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ a b c d "Elecciones al Parlamento de Andalucía (1982 - 2018)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 20 February 2020. Retrieved 25 September 2017.
- ^ "Valderas no volverá a ser el candidato de IU para presidir la Junta de Andalucía". infoLibre (in Spanish). 29 January 2015. Archived from the original on 23 January 2022. Retrieved 23 January 2022.
- ^ "Debate en Canal Sur para las andaluzas: 90 minutos y tres bloques temáticos". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 5 March 2015. Retrieved 4 May 2022.
- ^ "El debate tuvo un 10,7% de cuota de pantalla y 400.000 espectadores". El Mundo (in Spanish). 10 March 2015. Retrieved 4 May 2022.
- ^ "Canal Sur emite hoy el debate con los minoritarios". Diario de Sevilla (in Spanish). 10 March 2015. Retrieved 4 May 2022.
- ^ "El debate a siete de Canal Sur TV logró un 4% de cuota de pantalla con 150.000 espectadores de media". 20 minutos (in Spanish). 11 March 2015. Retrieved 4 May 2022.
- ^ "RTVE ofrece un debate de las elecciones andaluzas el lunes 16 desde las 22:00 horas" (in Spanish). RTVE. 13 March 2015. Retrieved 4 May 2022.
- ^ "540.000 andaluces vieron el debate, que tuvo el 14% de cuota de pantalla". El Mundo (in Spanish). 17 March 2015. Retrieved 4 May 2022.
- ^ "El 43,6% cree que Díaz demostró en el debate ser la mejor preparada para gobernar". Diario de Sevilla (in Spanish). 11 March 2015.
- ^ "Avances de participación". juntadeandalucia.es (in Spanish). Regional Government of Andalusia. 25 March 2012. Archived from the original on 20 February 2022. Retrieved 20 February 2022.
- ^ a b "Electoral Results Consultation. Parliament of Andalusia. March 2015. Andalusia totals". Regional Government of Andalusia (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 26 September 2017. Retrieved 25 September 2017.
- ^ a b "Parliament of Andalusia election results, 22 March 2015" (PDF). Regional Government of Andalusia (in Spanish). 15 April 2015. Archived (PDF) from the original on 1 May 2015. Retrieved 25 September 2017.
- ^ a b "Parliament of Andalusia election results, 22 March 2015. Error correction (I)" (PDF). Regional Government of Andalusia (in Spanish). 23 April 2015. Archived (PDF) from the original on 19 September 2016. Retrieved 25 September 2017.
- ^ a b "Parliament of Andalusia election results, 22 March 2015. Error correction (II)" (PDF). Regional Government of Andalusia (in Spanish). 16 July 2015. Archived (PDF) from the original on 19 September 2016. Retrieved 25 September 2017.
- ^ "La oposición amenaza con bloquear la investidura de Díaz hasta el final". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 26 March 2015. Archived from the original on 3 February 2020. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "Izquierda Unida niega su voto a Susana Díaz porque "carece de credibilidad"". ABC (in Spanish). 26 March 2015. Archived from the original on 14 September 2015. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "Podemos presenta a Susana Díaz sus condiciones para permitir su investidura". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 26 March 2015. Archived from the original on 27 October 2016. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "Ciudadanos mantiene su "no" a la investidura de Susana Díaz si no dimiten los imputados del caso ERE". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 26 March 2015. Archived from the original on 17 September 2016. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "Ciudadanos ofrece un pacto a Susana Díaz si echa a Griñán y Chaves". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 23 March 2015. Archived from the original on 7 September 2020. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "El PP no se opondrá a la investidura de Díaz si el PSOE permite que gobierne el más votado en las municipales". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 26 March 2015. Archived from the original on 29 May 2020. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "Susana Díaz rechaza la propuesta del PP de respetar la mayoría más votada". Libertad Digital (in Spanish). 27 March 2015. Archived from the original on 7 September 2020. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "Susana Díaz necesita la estabilidad". Granada Hoy (in Spanish). 29 March 2015. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "Susana Díaz: 'Voy a gobernar en solitario'". El Mundo (in Spanish). 23 March 2015. Archived from the original on 7 September 2020. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "¿Otras elecciones en Andalucía en dos meses?". ABC (in Spanish). 25 March 2015. Archived from the original on 18 July 2018. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "Susana Díaz negocia su investidura bajo la amenaza de nuevas elecciones". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 26 March 2015. Archived from the original on 7 September 2020. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "Cuatro opciones para la investidura de Susana Díaz: sí, no, abstención...o irse". ABC (in Spanish). 27 March 2015. Archived from the original on 18 July 2018. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "La Junta andaluza adjudicó Aznalcóllar burlando la ley". El Mundo (in Spanish). 13 May 2015. Archived from the original on 2 October 2019. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "La adjudicación de Aznalcóllar complica la investidura de Díaz". El País (in Spanish). 13 May 2015. Archived from the original on 8 February 2017. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "El escándalo de Aznalcóllar revienta las negociaciones para la investidura de Díaz". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 13 May 2015. Archived from the original on 29 December 2019. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "Susana Díaz: "Si hay que ir a elecciones se irá"". El País (in Spanish). 14 May 2015. Archived from the original on 7 February 2017. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "Bonilla (PP) a la "soberbia" de Susana Díaz: "¿Para qué nos convoca si no hay acuerdo?"". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 14 May 2015. Archived from the original on 7 September 2020. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "Teresa Rodríguez asegura que unos nuevos comicios en Andalucía certificarían el fracaso del PSOE". Diario Sur (in Spanish). 14 May 2015. Archived from the original on 5 March 2016. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "Ningún partido se fía de Susana Díaz". El Correo de Andalucía (in Spanish). 5 May 2015. Archived from the original on 7 September 2020. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "El PSOE rompe con Podemos y aleja la investidura tras el 24-M". El Mundo (in Spanish). 13 May 2015. Archived from the original on 7 September 2020. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "Órdago de Susana Díaz: O cierra un acuerdo el martes, o elecciones". El Mundo (in Spanish). 5 June 2015. Archived from the original on 7 September 2020. Retrieved 3 February 2020.