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August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion

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August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion
Part of attacks in Russia during the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Date6 August 2024 – present
(5 days)
Location
Kursk Oblast, Russia
Result Ongoing
Belligerents
 Ukraine  Russia
Commanders and leaders
Unknown Apti Alaudinov[1]
Units involved
See order of battle See order of battle
Strength
Russian claim:
300 soldiers (6 August 2024)
11 tanks
20+ AFVs[2]
1,000 soldiers[3][4] (7 August 2024)
10,000 soldiers and 600 armored vehicles[5] (9 August 2024)		 Unknown
Casualties and losses
Several armored vehicles[6]
1 Buk-M1 SAM system[6][7]
Per Russia:
945 casualties[8]
102 armored vehicles[8][9] (tanks, IFVs, APCs)[10]
26 UAVs[11]
55 surrendered[9]		 2 T-62M tanks[7]
1 Ka-52 helicopter[7][12]
1 Mi-28 helicopter[13]
40+ soldiers captured[14][6]
Per Russia: 6 civilians killed,
31 civilians injured[6][15][16]
6,000+ civilians evacuated[6][17]

On 6 August 2024, during the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) launched an incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast and clashed with the Russian Armed Forces and Russian border guard.[18][19][20] According to Russia, at least 1,000 troops crossed the border, supported by tanks and armored vehicles.[21] A state of emergency was declared in Kursk Oblast[21] and Russian reserves were rushed to the area.[22] The Institute for the Study of War said Ukrainian armored convoys had advanced to positions 10 kilometres (6.2 mi) into the Kursk region within two days,[22] and Ukrainian forces had taken control of several towns in the Sudzhansky District. Ukrainian officials have been largely silent on the offensive, but Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said "Russia brought the war to our land and should feel what it has done".[22]

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, there had been several smaller incursions into Russia by anti-Kremlin Russian paramilitaries. Ukraine had supported these ground incursions, but denied direct involvement. The Kursk incursion surprised both Russia and Ukraine's allies,[22] as it was the largest thus far as well as the first carried out primarily by Ukrainian regular forces.

Background

This paragraph is an excerpt from Attacks in Russia during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[edit]
There have been attacks in mainland Russia as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which began on 24 February 2022. The main targets have been the military, the arms industry and the oil industry. Many of the attacks have been drone strikes, firebombing, and rail sabotage. The Ukrainian intelligence services have acknowledged carrying out some of these attacks. Others have been carried out by anti-war activists in Russia. There has also been cross-border shelling, missile strikes and ground raids from Ukraine, mainly in the Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk oblasts. Several times, Russian anti-Kremlin paramilitaries have launched incursions from Ukraine into Russia, captured border villages and battled the Russian military. While Ukraine has supported these ground incursions, it has denied direct involvement.

Raid

6 August

On 6 August 2024, Russia reportedly deployed air and artillery forces to counter a Ukrainian border incursion in Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian fighters, equipped with tanks and armored vehicles, crossed into Russian territory. The Russian Ministry of Defense responded by sending troops and aviation units to the area. According to Russia, the incursion involved around 300 Ukrainian troops, 11 tanks, and over 20 armored combat vehicles,[2] and was aimed in two directions: at Oleshnya in the direction of Sudzha, east-northeast of Sumy, and towards Nikolayevo-Darino, north-northeast of Sumy.[23] It was reported that Chechen Akhmat battalions were responding to the raids.[23]

The attack began at 08:00 MSK and, by 18:20, Russian forces claimed to have pushed the Ukrainians back across the border, supposedly inflicting significant losses through artillery, air strikes, and drones – although the claim of the incursion being completely stopped has not been verified. Moscow released videos purportedly showing Ukrainian tanks being targeted from the air. Social media footage suggested Russian warplanes operated at low altitudes over Kursk Oblast to repel the attack. Alexei Smirnov, acting governor of Kursk Oblast, reported that three people died during the events: a woman in the border incursion and two individuals in separate drone attacks.[24] Russian milbloggers also largely dismissed the supposed raids as "unsuccessful" and a "media stunt".[23]

Russian milbloggers claimed that the offensive was being performed by the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC), while the New Voice of Ukraine citing a source in Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence reported that the RVC was not present.[23] The RVC's ally, the Freedom of Russia Legion, which accompanied the RVC in a raid earlier in the year refused to comment if they were participating.[23]

7 August

1943 Ukrainian railway map shows Sudzha in quadrant A2 at km 60 on the Lgov–Gotnya–Zolochiv main line to Kharkiv

On 7 August, Russian forces continued attempts to push back Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast. A milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces had captured 11 settlements and had advanced 14 kilometres (9 mi) deep into the oblast.[25] Government agencies were ordered by President Vladimir Putin to "provide the needed assistance to residents", and deputy prime minister Denis Manturov was sent to oversee their work.[26] Alexei Smirnov, the acting governor of Kursk Oblast, declared a state of emergency in the region,[27][28][29] and Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova protested about "The criminal Kiev regime" and said that "All this only reinforces the sense of impunity of Ukrainian neo-Nazis."[30] Putin met with key members of the security establishment including Valery Gerasimov, Alexander Bortnikov, Sergei Shoigu and Andrey Belousov on the Kursk incursion.[31]

Geolocated footage confirmed that Ukrainian forces had advanced at least 10 kilometres (6.2 mi) into the Russian border, having penetrated at least two Russian defensive lines and a stronghold. Russian sources indicated that Ukrainian forces are trying to advance along the 38K-030 Sudzha-Korenevo highway, and a prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that by 18:00 local time on 7 August, Ukrainian forces had advanced both northwest and southeast along the highway and were now fighting on the outskirts of Korenevo and Sudzha. Additionally, geolocated footage showed Ukrainian personnel capturing at least 40 Russian POWs, as well as fighting within city limits of Sudzha, with Ukrainian forces capturing a gas-station and the entry check-point.[14] Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko reported that Ukrainian forces had captured the Sudzha gas hub which feeds the Urengoy–Pomary–Uzhhorod pipeline into the rest of Europe. Additionally, there were reports of fighting in Ivnitsa [ru; uk], a village 24 km (15 mi) from the border.[32]

8 August

RIA Novosti reported that four people died as a result of 'attacks' by the AFU in the oblast[33] as fighting continued for a third day.[34][35] Russian milbloggers claimed that "Sudzha is basically lost to us" and that Ukrainian forces were pushing towards Lgov.[36]

Ukrainian forces were in control of the western part of Sudzha and the surrounding roads; skirmishes continued in the town.[37]

According to the governor of Kursk, six Ukrainian drones and five missiles were shot down during the night and morning.[38]

Reports claimed that the combat zone had expanded to 430 square kilometers, and claimed that Ukrainian forces entered the settlement of Mirny [ru; uk] and had taken control of the villages of Kazachya Loknya [ru; uk], Bogdanovka [ru; uk], 1st Knyazhiy [ru; uk] and 2nd Knyazhiy [ru; uk]. Skirmishes took place in the village of Snagost [ru; uk].[39] Ukrainian troops were present in areas 35 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.[40]

9 August

Reports claimed that Ukrainian troops had captured around 100[41]–200 square kilometers of territory, at a depth of around 10 kilometers on average.[42] The combat zone had expanded to about 600 square kilometers.[43]

A convoy of Russian troops was reportedly destroyed in a HIMARS strike in the village of Oktyabrskoye while moving along the route connecting Glushkovsky District and Kursk and passing through Rylsky and Lgovsky districts. Footage of the aftermath showed 15 burned military trucks, with some bodies inside.[8] According to the Ukrainian analyst group NEXTA, "each of these trucks can carry up to 35 fully equipped soldiers. The video shows 14 destroyed vehicles, which suggests that the Russian army could have lost between 200 and 490 soldiers in one night as a result of the strike... This could become one of the largest one-time losses for the Russian army since the beginning of a full-scale war".[44]

Apti Alaudinov, the commander of the Chechen Akhmat units that had been stationed in Belgorod and Kursk since the last incursion, informed Russian media that he and his forces did not engage Ukrainian troops as they passed their positions, instead opting to retreat until more Russian reinforcements could arrive, while some Russian milbloggers claimed they fled from the battle.[45][46][1] Additionally, Alaudinov has so far been the only Russian commander to admit that Ukrainian forces are in control of settlements along the border.[1]

Elsewhere, a massive drone attack was reported across Lipetsk Oblast, which Russian authorities attributed to Ukraine. At least six people were injured, while four villages were ordered evacuated.[47] Ukraine subsequently claimed that it had struck the Lipetsk air base and destroyed warehouses storing ammunition.[48][49] Russian authorities also claimed that one person was killed in a separate attack in Belgorod Oblast.[50]

In anticipation of Russian airstrikes, 20,000 people were ordered to evacuate from Sumy Oblast. Russian reinforcements, many of which were units already deployed around the Russia–Ukraine border,[51] continued to arrive near the frontline in Kursk Oblast, where fighting persisted over Sudzha.[52][53][51] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russia seized the border village of Lukashivka [uk] in Sumy Oblast, while Ukraine reportedly made a minor incursion in a new direction, directed at the border village of Kucherov, but did not capture it.[51]

The Russian MOD published a report on the transfer of a military column from the Belgorod Oblast to the Sudzhansky District, which included 152-mm self-propelled "Msta-S" artillery pieces and combat support vehicles.[54] Combat markings showed that Russian command was transferring battle hardened troops to Kursk Oblast as reinforcement.[55]

The head of the Kurchatov municipal administration, Igor Korpunkov, reported that the fighting was taking place dozens of kilometers from Kursk Nuclear Power Plant.[56] Authorities blocked all access to the nuclear plant, construction workers at the site left the area, and equipment at the plant was deenergized. Rosatom announced a temporary reduction in the number of personnel at the site. Around 15:00, an explosion was heard in Kurchatov. Russian NBC Protection Troops were also deployed to protect the plant.[57]

Governor of Kursk Oblast Alexey Smirnov reported that a fire started in one of the districts as a result of an attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on a transformer substation. As a result of the UAV attack, Kurchatov, as well as parts of the Kurchatovsky, Oktyabrsky, Bolshesoldatsky, Oboyansky and Belovsky districts, were left without power supply.[58]

According to the spokesman of the Ukrainian Volunteer Army "South" Serhiy Bratchuk, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to seize the ammunition depots in Sudzha.[59][60]

By 9 August, Russian forces had retaken the village of Snagost, and in the North had pushed Ukraine back to the Northern village of Malaya Loknya back from Ukraine's positions in Milyutino and Generalovka.[61]

10 August

On August 10, a "counter-terrorism operational regime" under the FSB was introduced in Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod Oblasts to temporarily take control of the regions till the conditions return to normalcy.[62][63]

Ukrainian troops launched an incursion in Belgorod Oblast with the 252nd Battalion taking part in clashes in the village of Poroz [ru; uk], Graivoronsky District[64] infiltrating more than a mile deep into the Russian territory.[65][66]

Reactions

Russia

The Russian Ministry of Defence claimed on 6 August that the attack had been repelled. The ministry stated, "After suffering losses, the Ukrainian sabotage group retreated to its territory, while some of the fighters attempted to establish a position on the territory adjacent to the state border, where they were blocked by Russian army units."[67][full citation needed][68] President Vladimir Putin described the AFU's incursion into Kursk Oblast as a "large-scale provocation." He accused the "Kyiv regime" of "indiscriminately firing various types of weapons, including missiles, at civilian buildings, houses, and ambulances." Putin stated that he plans to meet with the heads of the security agencies, the Defense Ministry, and the Federal Security Service (FSB).[25][6]

Former President and deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, issued a statement that the incursion made it so "This [war] is no longer just an operation to retake our official territories and punish the Nazis. It is possible and necessary to go to the lands of the still existing Ukraine. To Odesa, to Kharkiv, to Dnipropetrovsk, to Mykolaiv. To Kyiv and beyond," and that "The current military campaign will also end in Russia's unconditional victory."[32]

After a HIMARS strike reportedly destroyed a Russian battalion on the night of 8–9 August, numerous Russian milbloggers responded with outrage. Many of them called for the commanders who authorized the movement of the column to be punished, such as Russian military analyst Roman Alekhine wrote that "we need executions". Meanwhile, "The Two Majors" blog wrote that "whoever gave the order to move in columns in the area... should be sentenced under the laws of war". The channel "Thirteenth", which has ties to the Wagner Group, called those responsible "brainless creatures". "In the third year of the war, even a monkey could be trained, but not some [Russian] Ministry of Defense staff general who gave the orders for such a suicidal march in the frontline zone".[69]

Ukraine

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, General Staff and Main Intelligence Directorate have not yet commented on the raid.[70][68]

The head of Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation, Andriy Kovalenko, refuted Russian claims that the situation at the border is under control, stating, "Russia does not control the border."[70]

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's advisor Mykhailo Podolyak issued the first statement on behalf of Ukraine that did not acknowledge any role by Kyiv but portrayed the incursion as the Russian populace rising against Vladimir Putin. Podolyak said the attacks "provide an opportunity to see how ordinary Russians relate to the current authorities in Russia" but that Russians would not "come out with flowers to greet the anti-Putin tanks" due to the public support for the war.[71] In his evening address on 8 August, Zelenskyy said that "Russia brought the war to our land and should feel what it has done", but did not directly mention the incursion.[72]

United States

The White House said that it was seeking an understanding from Ukraine regarding the incursion, adding that it had had no advance knowledge of the attack.[73] On 8 August, Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh stated that the incursion is consistent with the US policy on the use of weapons.[74][40]

Organisations

Following reports, on August 10, of fighting near the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, the head of the international Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, called on Russia and Ukraine to exercise "maximum restraint" to avoid a nuclear accident.[75]

Analysis

The August 2024 incursion is larger than earlier ground raids, with at least two brigades from the regular Ukrainian forces participating. These forces are mechanized, highly mobile and protected by significant air defense. The incursion appears to have taken Russia by surprise. The Institute for the Study of War reports that, according to Russian sources the Ukrainians use "novel and innovative tactics" and that small armored units bypass Russian defenses, strike in the rear and then withdraw.[40] Forbes reported a "new style of warfare" where the first step is to neutralize Russian drones with physical attacks and jamming which also affect radio communication. Then high-precision drones, working in swarms, attack Russian forces. Last, Ukrainan troops move in to secure the trenches, the radio jammers are brought forward and the cycle repeats. [76]

The Ukrainian surprise offensive in the Russian border region of Kursk suggests an attempt to shift the momentum against Russia. This action, not officially confirmed by Ukrainian leaders, has drawn criticism from analysts who question the strategic wisdom of deploying already strained troops on Russian territory.[77]

The objective of the incursion remains uncertain. Some sources suggested it is "an audacious attack on the world's biggest nuclear power plant" which is located about 40 kilometers west of Kursk city and 110 kilometers from the border with Ukraine.[78] The National Guard of Russia had strengthened security at the plant.[79][failed verification]

A significant challenge for Ukraine has been responding to Russia's strategy of expanding the front line, particularly with intensified fighting around Kharkiv. According to Rob Lee, a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute's Eurasia program, this offensive has further stretched Ukraine's forces, reducing their reserves to counter Russian advances towards Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Toretsk.[77]

Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said that the Ukrainian incursion into Russia was "the first on this scale with conventional forces, rather than proxies [or] 'resistance' groups." He also assessed that earlier raids into Kursk and Belgorod were designed to probe for Russian weak spots, and that the overall goal of the raid is to dismantle Russia's ability to funnel more troops into the Kharkiv front and that "It's unlikely that the plan is to seriously take Kursk itself, or to try and hold vast swathes of Russian territory."[32]

Nico Lange, former chief of staff at Germany's Defense Ministry, stated that the incursion was likely "to establish a negotiating position and provide relief on other front lines" and that it is unlikely that Ukrainian forces would hold territory in Kursk for long periods of time.[32]

Retired Polish General and former commander of special forces, Roman Polko, stated that "It's good that Ukraine is taking actions that surprise the Russians," and that "Ukraine is in a defensive position and is unable to conduct an operation to push Russia from the occupied regions, but Ukraine is defending itself in an active way," and that "One can't allow the Russians to comfortably prepare new attacks."[32]

Impact

The attack reportedly pushed up gas prices to €40 (+5%) per megawatt-hour in Europe,[80] while YouTube and phone networks experienced outages in Russia.[81][82][83]

The transit of Russian gas through the Ukrainian gas transportation system decreased to 37.25 million cubic metres per day from the usual 42–42.4 million cubic metres.[84]

Casualties

Russia claimed that six Ukrainian tanks and ten armored vehicles were lost in the initial engagement on 6 August.[2][85][86] Acting governor of Kursk Oblast, Alexei Smirnov, claimed that 26 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down in the area.[11] Russia later claimed on 9 August, that Ukraine had losses of 945 soldiers and 102 armored vehicles, although this could not be verified.[8] Ukraine claimed their forces had shot down a Ka-52[12] and a Mi-28 helicopter.[13]

The Russian state broadcaster Rossiya-24 announced that one of its reporters, Yevgeny Poddubny, was injured in a drone attack on his vehicle while reporting on the fighting in the affected areas on 7 August.[87] Russian authorities said that at least six civilians had been killed since the start of the incursion, while at least 66 others, including nine children, were injured.[88]

Order of battle

Russia

Wagner Group[97]

Ukraine

See also

References

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