Billingsley Report
The Billingsley Report is a college football rating system developed in the late 1960s to determine a national champion. Billingsley has actively rated college football teams on a current basis since 1970.[1] Beginning in 1999, Billingsley's ratings were included as one of seven mathematical formulas included in the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) rankings.[2]
Unlike the other mathematical formulas included in the BCS rankings, the Billingsley Report was not prepared by a trained mathematician or statistician.[3] Instead, the Billingsley Report is prepared by Richard Billingsley (born c. 1951), a lifelong college football fan in Hugo, Oklahoma.[3] Billingsley attended Texas Bible College, became a minister and later a consultant in the country music business. He began preparing his own weekly college football ratings as a hobby.[4][5]
Billingsley has also applied his ratings methodology retroactively to select national champions for each year from 1869 to 1870 and from 1872 to 1969. Since 1996,[2] the "Billingsley Report" has been one of the selectors of historic national champions recognized by the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) in its Football Bowl Subdivision record book.[1]
The NCAA describes Billingsley's methodology as follows: " The main feature of his system is the inclusion of a unique rule for head-to-head competition, with the overall system consisting of a balanced approach to wins, losses, strength of schedule, and home-field advantage. A slight weight is given to most recent performance. The Billingsley formula does not use margin of victory, however, the Billingsley MOV formula does include margin of victory in the calculations.".[1][6] Analysis shows that Billingsley's ranking system typically strongly disagrees with other computer ranking systems and more closely resembles human ranking schemes,[7] likely due to the ad hoc and often self-conflicting nature of Billingsley's many ratings adjustments, such as weighting later season games as more important than early season games, adjusting win values by stadium attendance, forcing head to head victors to be ranked above their defeated opponents (but only until their next game), and discounting the value of wins by teams with more losses.[8]
Richard Billingsley is also the owner of the College Football Research Center.[9]
National champions[edit]
Billingsley Report selections first appeared in the 1995[10] edition of the NCAA records book, listing champions since 1960. In the 1996[11] book these champions were joined with retrospective selections all the way back to 1869. This original set of champions was last printed in the 1999[12] NCAA records book.
In 1998 Billingsley adjusted his formula in order to participate as a computer poll in the Bowl Championship Series rankings. He re-ranked all past seasons with this new formula; these new champions were printed in the 2000[13]–2003[14] NCAA records books.
Prior to the 2001 season, Billingsley again changed the formula in order to remove "Margin of Victory" from the system's BCS calculations. This third set of champions appeared in the 2004[15]–2012[16] NCAA books.
Finally, beginning in 2013,[17] the NCAA records books profess to list both Billingsley's "No Margin of Victory" and "Margin of Victory" champions is cases where they differ. However, this list is not a simple superset of the previous two sets of champions.
The table below lists the 4 distinct sets of Billingsley Report national champions printed in NCAA records books since 1995. The selections are additionally sourced to the College Football Research Center website, where Billingsley made the same updates to his national champions after each change to the Billingsley Report formula.
† Teams chosen solely by Billingsley amongst NCAA-designated "major selectors".
See also[edit]
References[edit]
- ^ a b c National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) (2015). "National Poll Rankings" (PDF). NCAA Division I Football Records. NCAA. pp. 105–106. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-05-21. Retrieved January 3, 2016.
- ^ a b "An Interview with Richard Billingsley". Playoff Guru. SC Publications. October 15, 2009.
- ^ a b O'Keefe, John (September 17, 2001). "Top Billingsley". Sports Illustrated. p. 26. Retrieved May 14, 2023.
- ^ Klein, John (August 24, 2003). "Billingsley's report a labor of love". Tulsa World.
- ^ Carlson, Jenni (November 27, 2013). "The Okie inside the BCS machine". The Oklahoman.
- ^ Billingsley, Richard (October 21, 2001). "As the game changes, so do the formulas". ESPN.com. Retrieved July 22, 2023.
Over the years the formula has been modified four times. At the inception of the poll in 1970, the formula was heavily weighted in margin of victory. In 1975, I recognized that fact and took steps to minimize the impact scoring margins had on the results. In 1980, I modified the formula to handle tie games more effectively, which is a moot issue now with our overtime rules, and in 1998, I once again diminished the margin of victory and extended the decimal range to three digits. The most recent — and most prominent change — came in this offseason when I decided to take the scoring margin out completely.
- ^ "Playing the numbers game: the BCS computers". SBNation.
- ^ "In search of a national champion". College Football Research Center.
- ^ "Billingsley Wins Two National Awards". College Football Research Center. August 16, 2015. Archived from the original on September 8, 2015. Retrieved January 3, 2016.
- ^ a b 1995 NCAA Football Records Book. National Collegiate Athletic Association. 1995. pp. 54–58. Retrieved July 15, 2023.
- ^ a b 1996 NCAA Football Records Book. National Collegiate Athletic Association. 1996. pp. 54–59. Retrieved July 15, 2023.
Billingsley Report (1960–present), a mathematically based power rating system developed by Richard Billingsley of Nashville, Tennessee. His work is published annually as the Billingsley Report through his own company, the College Football Research Center. In 1996, he finished his three-year research project ranking the national champions from 1869–95. Predated national champions from 1869–1959.
- ^ a b 1999 NCAA Football Records Book. National Collegiate Athletic Association. 1999. pp. 58–65. Retrieved July 15, 2023.
- ^ a b 2000 NCAA Football Division I-A Records (PDF). National Collegiate Athletic Association. 2000. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
- ^ a b Official 2003 NCAA Football Records (PDF). Indianapolis: The National Collegiate Athletic Association. August 2003. pp. 73–80. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
Billingsley Report (1970-present), a mathematically based power rating system developed by Richard Billingsley of Nashville, Tennessee. His work is published annually as the Billingsley Report through his own company, the College Football Research Center. In 1996, he finished his three-year research project ranking the national champions from 1869-95. The research is located on the World Wide Web at www.CFRC.com. Predated national champions from 1869-1970. Member of 2002 BCS.
- ^ a b Official 2004 NCAA Football Records (PDF). Indianapolis: The National Collegiate Athletic Association. August 2004. pp. 81–88. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
Billingsley Report (1970-present), a mathematically based power rating system developed by Richard Billingsley of Hugo, Oklahoma. The main feature of his system is the inclusion of a unique rule for head-to-head competition, with the overall system consisting of a balanced approach to wins, losses, strength of schedule, and home-field advantage. A slight weight is given to most recent performance. The 2004 publication represents an updated list of champions based on his 'no margin of victory formula,' and supersedes any previous reports. Member of 2003 BCS.
- ^ a b 2012 NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision Records (PDF). National Collegiate Athletic Association. 2012. Retrieved May 12, 2023.
- ^ a b 2013 NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision Records (PDF). National Collegiate Athletic Association. 2013. Retrieved May 12, 2023.
Billingsley Report (1970-present), a mathematically based power rating system developed by Richard Billingsley of Hugo, Oklahoma. The main feature of his system is the inclusion of a unique rule for head-to-head competition, with the overall system consisting of a balanced approach to wins, losses, strength of schedule, and home-field advantage. A slight weight is given to most recent performance. The Billingsley formula does not use margin of victory, however, the Billingsley MOV formula does include margin of victory in the calculations.
- ^ Billingsley, Richard (1998). "National Champions of The Billingsley System". CFRC.com. College Football Research Center. Archived from the original on May 7, 1998. Retrieved July 20, 2023.
- ^ Billingsley, Richard (1999). "Billingsley's National Champions". CFRC.com. College Football Research Center. Archived from the original on November 28, 1999. Retrieved July 20, 2023.
- ^ Billingsley, Richard (2002). "Billingsley's National Champions". CFRC.com. College Football Research Center. Archived from the original on June 12, 2002. Retrieved July 20, 2023.
- ^ Billingsley, Richard (2002). "Billingsley's National Champions By Year". CFRC.com. College Football Research Center. Archived from the original on October 11, 2002. Retrieved July 20, 2023.
These Champions were Derived Using The Current "No Margin" Formula.
- ^ Billingsley, Richard (2011). "Billingsley's National Champions". CFRC.com. College Football Research Center. Archived from the original on September 12, 2011. Retrieved July 20, 2023.
- ^ Billingsley, Richard (2012). "Billingsley's National Champions". CFRC.com. College Football Research Center. Archived from the original on November 13, 2012. Retrieved July 20, 2023.
Billingsley MOV column
- ^ Billingsley, Richard (2021). "Billingsley National Champions". CFRC.com. College Football Research Center. Archived from the original on September 20, 2021. Retrieved July 20, 2023.
Billingsley MOV column
- ^ 2022 NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision Records (PDF). National Collegiate Athletic Association. 2022. Retrieved May 12, 2023.