2012 Montana gubernatorial election

2012 Montana gubernatorial election
Turnout	72.18%2.32
	County results; Bullock: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%; Hill: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90%
Governor before election; Brian Schweitzer; Democratic	Elected Governor ; Steve Bullock; Democratic

The 2012 Montana gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2012, to elect the governor of Montana. Incumbent Democratic governor Brian Schweitzer was term-limited and could not run for re-election to a third term.

Montana Attorney General Steve Bullock won the Democratic primary with 87% of the vote and former U.S. representative Rick Hill won the Republican primary with 34% of the vote. In the general election, Bullock won by 7,571 votes, taking 48.9% of the vote to Hill's 47.3%.^[2] With a margin of 1.6%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2012 gubernatorial election cycle, behind only the election in Puerto Rico. Due to the close margin, media outlets did not call the race for Bullock until the next day.^[3] This was the last time anyone other than Greg Gianforte was the Republican nominee.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Steve Bullock, Montana Attorney General^[4]

Running mate: John Walsh, Brigadier general and former adjutant general in the Montana National Guard^[5]

Heather Margolis, Montana representative for community service organization ServeNext

Running mate: Steve Nelsen, founder of the Montana Conservation Corps^[6]

Withdrew

Larry Jent, state senator^[7]

Declined

John Bohlinger, Lieutenant Governor of Montana^[8]
Carl Borgquist, president of Grasslands Renewable Energy of Bozeman^[8]
Dave Wanzenried, state senator^[9]
Pat Williams, former U.S. representative^[10]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Steve Bullock	Larry Jent	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[11]	November 28–30, 2011	573	± 4.1%	70%	6%	—	24%

Results

Democratic primary results^[12]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Steve Bullock	76,738	86.6
	Democratic	Heather Margolis	11,823	13.4
Total votes			88,561	100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Bob Fanning, retired businessman^[13]

Running mate: Joel Boniek, former state representative^[14]
Former running mate: Chuck Baldwin, pastor and Constitution Party nominee for president in 2008 (dropped out February 2012)^[15]

Rick Hill, former U.S. representative^[16]

Running mate: Jon Sonju, state senator^[17]

Neil Livingstone, terrorism and national security analyst^[18]

Running mate: Ryan Zinke, state senator^[19]

Jim Lynch, former Montana Department of Transportation director^[20]

Running mate: Al Olszewski, orthopedic surgeon and Carroll College Trustee^[21]

Ken Miller, former state senator and former chairman of the Montana Republican Party^[22]

Running mate: Bill Gallagher, Public Service Commissioner^[23]

Jim O'Hara, Chouteau County Commissioner^[24]

Running mate: Scott Swingley, private investigator and former trooper in the Montana Highway Patrol^[25]

Corey Stapleton, former state senator^[26]

Running mate: Bob Keenan, former president of the Montana Senate^[27]

Withdrew

Jeff Essmann, Majority Leader of the Montana Senate^[28]
Drew Turiano, real estate investor^[29]^[30]

Declined

Denny Rehberg, U.S. representative (ran for the U.S. Senate)^[31]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jeff Essmann	Bob Fanning	Rick Hill	Neil Livingstone	Jim Lynch	Ken Miller	Jim O'Hara	Corey Stapleton	Other/ Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[32]	April 26–29, 2012	403	± 4.88%	—	1%	33%	5%	4%	12%	4%	7%	35%
Public Policy Polling^[33]	November 28–30, 2011	700	± 3.7%	5%	1%	37%	3%	4%	10%	3%	2%	35%

Results

Republican primary results^[12]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Rick Hill	46,802	34.4
	Republican	Corey Stapleton	24,661	18.1
	Republican	Ken Miller	24,496	18.0
	Republican	Jim O'Hara	16,653	12.2
	Republican	Neil Livingstone	12,038	8.8
	Republican	Jim Lynch	8,323	6.1
	Republican	Bob Fanning	3,087	2.3
Total votes			136,060	100.0

General election

Candidates

Steve Bullock (D), Montana attorney general

Running mate: John Walsh, brigadier general and former adjutant general in the Montana National Guard

Rick Hill (R), former U.S. representative

Running mate: Jon Sonju, state senator

Ron Vandevender (Libertarian), businessman^[34]

Running mate: Marc Mulcahy^[14]

Debate

Complete video of debate, C-SPAN, October 10, 2012

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[35]	Tossup	November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[36]	Lean R (flip)	November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report^[37]	Tossup	November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics^[38]	Tossup	November 5, 2012

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Steve Bullock (D)	Rick Hill (R)	Other/Undecided ^[a]	Margin
Real Clear Politics^[39]	September 27 – November 3, 2012	November 3, 2012	44.0%	45.7%	10.3%	Hill +1.7%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Steve Bullock (D)	Rick Hill (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[40]	November 2–3, 2012	836	± 3.4%	48%	48%	2%	2%
Mason-Dixon^[41]	October 29–31, 2012	625	± 4.0%	46%	49%	2%	3%
Public Policy Polling^[42]	October 8–10, 2012	737	± 3.6%	42%	43%	8%	7%
Montana State University^[43]	September 27–30, 2012	477	± 4.6%	38%	40%	2%	20%
Mason-Dixon^[44]	September 17–19, 2012	625	± 4.0%	44%	43%	2%	11%
Public Policy Polling^[45]	September 10–11, 2012	656	± 3.2%	44%	39%	8%	9%
Public Policy Polling^[32]	April 26–29, 2012	934	± 3.2%	39%	39%	—	21%
Public Policy Polling^[11]	November 28–30, 2011	1,625	± 2.4%	38%	39%	—	23%
Public Policy Polling^[46]	June 16–19, 2011	819	± 3.4%	37%	39%	—	23%
Public Policy Polling^[47]	November 10–13, 2010	1,176	± 2.9%	31%	41%	—	28%

Hypothetical polling

With Bohlinger

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John Bohlinger (D)	Jeff Essmann (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[46]	June 16–19, 2011	819	± 3.4%	40%	33%	—	28%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John Bohlinger (D)	Rick Hill (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[46]	June 16–19, 2011	819	± 3.4%	39%	40%	—	21%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John Bohlinger (D)	Ken Miller (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[46]	June 16–19, 2011	819	± 3.4%	39%	33%	—	28%

With Bullock

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Steve Bullock (D)	Jeff Essmann (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[11]	November 28–30, 2011	1,625	± 2.4%	42%	30%	—	28%
Public Policy Polling^[46]	June 16–19, 2011	819	± 3.4%	38%	33%	—	28%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Steve Bullock (D)	Neil Livingstone (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[11]	November 28–30, 2011	1,625	± 2.4%	41%	29%	—	30%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Steve Bullock (D)	Ken Miller (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[32]	April 26–29, 2012	934	± 3.2%	41%	35%	—	24%
Public Policy Polling^[11]	November 28–30, 2011	1,625	± 2.4%	40%	31%	—	29%
Public Policy Polling^[46]	June 16–19, 2011	819	± 3.4%	38%	34%	—	28%

With Jent

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Larry Jent (D)	Rick Hill (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[11]	November 28–30, 2011	1,625	± 2.4%	26%	39%	—	35%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Larry Jent (D)	Neil Livingstone (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[11]	November 28–30, 2011	1,625	± 2.4%	26%	30%	—	44%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Larry Jent (D)	Ken Miller (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[11]	November 28–30, 2011	1,625	± 2.4%	25%	33%	—	42%

With Wanzenried

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Dave Wanzenried (D)	Jeff Essmann (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[46]	June 16–19, 2011	819	± 3.4%	31%	33%	—	36%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Dave Wanzenried (D)	Rick Hill (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[46]	June 16–19, 2011	819	± 3.4%	30%	40%	—	30%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Dave Wanzenried (D)	Ken Miller (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[46]	June 16–19, 2011	819	± 3.4%	30%	35%	—	35%

Results

2012 Montana gubernatorial election^[48]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Steve Bullock	236,450	48.90%	−16.57%
	Republican	Rick Hill	228,879	47.34%	+14.82%
	Libertarian	Ron Vandevender	18,160	3.76%	+1.75%
Total votes			483,489	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Beaverhead (largest city: Dillon)
Broadwater (largest city: Townsend)
Carbon (largest city: Red Lodge)
Chouteau (largest municipality: Fort Benton)
Custer (largest city: Miles City)
Daniels (largest city: Scobey)
Dawson (Largest city: Glendive)
Fallon (largest city: Baker)
Fergus (largest city: Lewistown)
Flathead (largest city: Kalispell)
Golden Valley (largest city: Ryegate)
Granite (largest city: Philipsburg)
Jefferson (largest city: Clancy)
Judith Basin (largest city: Stanford)
Liberty (largest city: Chester)
Lincoln (largest city: Libby)
Madison (largest city: Ennis)
McCone (largest city: Circle)
Mineral (largest city: Superior)
Park (largest city: Livingston)
Phillips (largest city: Malta)
Pondera (largest city: Conrad)
Powell (largest city: Deer Lodge)
Prairie (largest city: Terry)
Ravalli (largest city: Hamilton)
Richland (largest city: Sidney)
Rosebud (largest city: Colstrip)
Sanders (largest city: Thompson Falls)
Sheridan (Largest city: Plentywood)
Stillwater (largest city: Columbus)
Teton (largest city: Choteau)
Toole (largest city: Shelby)
Treasure (largest city: Hysham)
Valley (largest city: Glasgow)
Wheatland (largest city: Harlowton)
Wibaux (largest city: Wibaux)
Yellowstone (largest city: Billings)

Notes

^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

References

^ "Montana Voter Turnout". Montana Secretary of State - Christi Jacobsen. February 22, 2018. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
^ Michael Barone, et al. The Almanac of American Politics 2014 (2013) (Kindle Locations 48242-48245).
^ Charles S. Johnson (November 6, 2012). "Networks declare Bullock winner in tight race for governor". Montana Standard.
^ Catanese, David (September 7, 2011). "Bullock joins Montana governor's race". Politico. Retrieved September 7, 2011.
^ Johnson, Charles S. (March 9, 2012). "Bullock makes pick of Walsh as running mate official". Independent Record. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
^ Banks, Marnee (March 12, 2012). "Democrats Margolis & Nelsen enter race for MT Governor". KXLF-TV. Archived from the original on January 27, 2013. Retrieved March 14, 2012.
^ Johnson, Charles S. (March 8, 2012). "Jent drops out of governor's race, leaving Bullock as lone Democrat". Billings Gazette. Retrieved March 9, 2012.
^ ^a ^b Johnson, Charles S. (June 12, 2011). "Bohlinger, Essmann eye governor's race". Billings Gazette. Retrieved June 15, 2011.
^ Charles S. Johnson (July 7, 2011). "Wanzenried ends run for governor". Billings Gazette.
^ Johnson, Charles S. (September 13, 2010). "Pat Williams not running for governor". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h Public Policy Polling
^ ^a ^b "2012 STATEWIDE PRIMARY ELECTION CANVASS" (PDF). Secretary of State of Montana. Archived from the original (PDF) on January 21, 2013. Retrieved September 24, 2012.
^ Johnson, Charles S. (October 4, 2011). "3 more GOP candidates running for governor". Billings Gazette. Retrieved October 5, 2011.
^ ^a ^b Banks, Marnee (March 12, 2012). "Long list of candidates running for U.S. House & MT Governor". KRTV. Archived from the original on January 27, 2013. Retrieved March 14, 2012.
^ Banks, Marnee (February 13, 2012). "MT gubernatorial candidate Fanning loses running mate". KTVQ. Archived from the original on January 19, 2015. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
^ Johnson, Charles S. (November 6, 2010). "Former GOP U.S. Rep. Rick Hill to run for Montana governor". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
^ Reece, Myers (January 18, 2012). "Rick Hill Announces Jon Sonju as Gubernatorial Running Mate". Flathead Beacon. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
^ "Terrorism expert files for Montana governor's race". Associated Press. February 12, 2011. Retrieved February 12, 2011.
^ Johnson, Charles S. (July 10, 2011). "Livingstone taps Zinke as running mate". Billings Gazette. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
^ "Jim Lynch announces candidacy for Governor". KTVQ. October 13, 2011. Archived from the original on October 23, 2011. Retrieved October 14, 2011.
^ Sherman, David (March 12, 2012). "Lynch names Olszewski as running mate in MT governor race". KRTV. Archived from the original on January 27, 2013. Retrieved March 14, 2012.
^ Dennison, Mike (August 9, 2010). "Republican former state senator from Laurel formally enters 2012 governor's race". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
^ Reece, Myers (February 6, 2012). "Ken Miller Announces Bill Gallagher as Gubernatorial Running Mate". Flathead Beacon. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
^ Keegan, Charlie (January 14, 2011). "Jim O'Hara Announces Candidacy for Governor". KFBB-TV. Archived from the original on July 13, 2011. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
^ Johnson, Charles S. (February 7, 2012). "O'Hara picks retired MHP officer as running mate". Billings Gazette. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
^ Johnson, Charles S. (July 19, 2010). "Stapleton bidding for governor". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
^ Johnson, Charles S. (February 7, 2012). "Stapleton picks Keenan for running mate". Billings Gazette. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
^ "Essmann drops out of GOP race for governor". Billingsgazette.com. January 27, 2012. Retrieved January 5, 2018.
^ [1] ^{[dead link‍]}
^ "Turiano Drops Gubernatorial Bid". Flathead Beacon. January 17, 2012. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
^ Johnson, Charles S. (November 11, 2010). "Rehberg focusing on current job". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
^ ^a ^b ^c Public Policy Polling
^ Public Policy Polling
^ Johnson, Charles S. (March 1, 2012). "Governor candidates talk about state economy". Independent Record. Retrieved March 14, 2012.
^ "2012 Governor Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
^ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on December 1, 2018. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
^ "2012 Gubernatorial Ratings". Gubernatorial Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
^ "2012 Elections Map - 2012 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
^ Real Clear Politics
^ Public Policy Polling
^ Mason-Dixon
^ Public Policy Polling
^ Montana State University
^ Mason-Dixon
^ Public Policy Polling
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ Public Policy Polling
^ Public Policy Polling
^ "2012 Statewide General Election Canvass" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved January 13, 2019.

External links

Elections and Government – Montana Secretary of State

Official campaign websites (Archived)

[39] Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

[1] "Montana Voter Turnout". Montana Secretary of State - Christi Jacobsen. February 22, 2018. Retrieved May 26, 2022.

[2] Michael Barone, et al. The Almanac of American Politics 2014 (2013) (Kindle Locations 48242-48245).

[3] Charles S. Johnson (November 6, 2012). "Networks declare Bullock winner in tight race for governor". Montana Standard.

[4] Catanese, David (September 7, 2011). "Bullock joins Montana governor's race". Politico. Retrieved September 7, 2011.

[5] Johnson, Charles S. (March 9, 2012). "Bullock makes pick of Walsh as running mate official". Independent Record. Retrieved March 11, 2012.

[6] Banks, Marnee (March 12, 2012). "Democrats Margolis & Nelsen enter race for MT Governor". KXLF-TV. Archived from the original on January 27, 2013. Retrieved March 14, 2012.

[7] Johnson, Charles S. (March 8, 2012). "Jent drops out of governor's race, leaving Bullock as lone Democrat". Billings Gazette. Retrieved March 9, 2012.

[bg-8] Johnson, Charles S. (June 12, 2011). "Bohlinger, Essmann eye governor's race". Billings Gazette. Retrieved June 15, 2011.

[9] Charles S. Johnson (July 7, 2011). "Wanzenried ends run for governor". Billings Gazette.

[10] Johnson, Charles S. (September 13, 2010). "Pat Williams not running for governor". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.

[Public_Policy_Polling-11] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h Public Policy Polling

[MTSOS_prim-12] "2012 STATEWIDE PRIMARY ELECTION CANVASS" (PDF). Secretary of State of Montana. Archived from the original (PDF) on January 21, 2013. Retrieved September 24, 2012.

[13] Johnson, Charles S. (October 4, 2011). "3 more GOP candidates running for governor". Billings Gazette. Retrieved October 5, 2011.

[krtv-14] Banks, Marnee (March 12, 2012). "Long list of candidates running for U.S. House & MT Governor". KRTV. Archived from the original on January 27, 2013. Retrieved March 14, 2012.

[15] Banks, Marnee (February 13, 2012). "MT gubernatorial candidate Fanning loses running mate". KTVQ. Archived from the original on January 19, 2015. Retrieved March 11, 2012.

[16] Johnson, Charles S. (November 6, 2010). "Former GOP U.S. Rep. Rick Hill to run for Montana governor". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.

[17] Reece, Myers (January 18, 2012). "Rick Hill Announces Jon Sonju as Gubernatorial Running Mate". Flathead Beacon. Retrieved March 11, 2012.

[18] "Terrorism expert files for Montana governor's race". Associated Press. February 12, 2011. Retrieved February 12, 2011.

[19] Johnson, Charles S. (July 10, 2011). "Livingstone taps Zinke as running mate". Billings Gazette. Retrieved March 11, 2012.

[20] "Jim Lynch announces candidacy for Governor". KTVQ. October 13, 2011. Archived from the original on October 23, 2011. Retrieved October 14, 2011.

[21] Sherman, David (March 12, 2012). "Lynch names Olszewski as running mate in MT governor race". KRTV. Archived from the original on January 27, 2013. Retrieved March 14, 2012.

[22] Dennison, Mike (August 9, 2010). "Republican former state senator from Laurel formally enters 2012 governor's race". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.

[23] Reece, Myers (February 6, 2012). "Ken Miller Announces Bill Gallagher as Gubernatorial Running Mate". Flathead Beacon. Retrieved March 11, 2012.

[24] Keegan, Charlie (January 14, 2011). "Jim O'Hara Announces Candidacy for Governor". KFBB-TV. Archived from the original on July 13, 2011. Retrieved January 17, 2011.

[25] Johnson, Charles S. (February 7, 2012). "O'Hara picks retired MHP officer as running mate". Billings Gazette. Retrieved March 11, 2012.

[26] Johnson, Charles S. (July 19, 2010). "Stapleton bidding for governor". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.

[27] Johnson, Charles S. (February 7, 2012). "Stapleton picks Keenan for running mate". Billings Gazette. Retrieved March 11, 2012.

[28] "Essmann drops out of GOP race for governor". Billingsgazette.com. January 27, 2012. Retrieved January 5, 2018.

[29] [1] ^{[dead link‍]}

[30] "Turiano Drops Gubernatorial Bid". Flathead Beacon. January 17, 2012. Retrieved March 11, 2021.

[31] Johnson, Charles S. (November 11, 2010). "Rehberg focusing on current job". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.

[publicpolicypolling.com-32] Public Policy Polling

[33] Public Policy Polling

[34] Johnson, Charles S. (March 1, 2012). "Governor candidates talk about state economy". Independent Record. Retrieved March 14, 2012.

[35] "2012 Governor Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.

[36] "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on December 1, 2018. Retrieved November 30, 2018.

[37] "2012 Gubernatorial Ratings". Gubernatorial Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.

[38] "2012 Elections Map - 2012 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved November 30, 2018.

[40] Real Clear Politics

[41] Public Policy Polling

[42] Mason-Dixon

[43] Public Policy Polling

[44] Montana State University

[45] Mason-Dixon

[46] Public Policy Polling

[web.archive.org-47] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ Public Policy Polling

[48] Public Policy Polling

[49] "2012 Statewide General Election Canvass" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved January 13, 2019.

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