Spoiler campaign
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A spoiler campaign (or a spoiler candidate) is one that cannot realistically win but can still determine the outcome by splitting votes with a more competitive candidate.[1] The spoiler effect is most prevalent in two-party systems (like the one in the United States) created by first-past-the-post voting and less so in many proportional representation systems. Approval voting is considered one of the most spoiler-resistant voting systems, followed by ranked-choice voting.
United States
[edit]The two major parties have regularly won 98% of all state and federal seats.[2] The US presidential elections most consistently cited as having been spoiled by third-party candidates are 1844[3] and 2000,[4][5][6][3] while 2016 impact is often discussed but more disputed as to whether it altered the outcome.[7][8][9] For the 2024 presidential election, Republican lawyers and operatives have fought to keep right-leaning third-parties like the Constitution Party off of swing state ballots[10] while working to get Cornel West on battleground ballots.[11] Democrats have helped some right-leaning third-parties gain ballot access while challenging ballot access of left-leaning third-parties like the Green Party.[12]
Third party candidates are always controversial because almost anyone could play spoiler.[13][14] This is especially true in close elections where the chances of a spoiler effect increase.[15] Strategic voting, especially prevalent during high stakes elections with high political polarization, often leads to a third-party that underperforms its poll numbers with voters wanting to make sure their least favorite candidate is not in power.[16][17][2] Third-party campaigns are more likely to result in the candidate a third party voter least wants in the White House.[14] Third-party candidates prefer to focus on their platform than on their impact on the frontrunners.[14]
References
[edit]- ^ "The Spoiled Election: Independents and the 2024 Election". Harvard Political Review. April 18, 2024. Retrieved 2024-08-24.
Perot was running what is commonly referred to as a "spoiler campaign," a campaign that cannot win the election but still impacts its outcome.
- ^ a b Masket, Seth (Fall 2023). "Giving Minor Parties a Chance". Democracy. 70.
- ^ a b Green, Donald J. (2010). Third-party matters: politics, presidents, and third parties in American history. Santa Barbara, Calif: Praeger. pp. 153–154. ISBN 978-0-313-36591-1.
- ^ Burden, Barry C. (September 2005). "Ralph Nader's Campaign Strategy in the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election". American Politics Research. 33 (5): 672–699. doi:10.1177/1532673x04272431. ISSN 1532-673X. S2CID 43919948.
- ^ Herron, Michael C.; Lewis, Jeffrey B. (April 24, 2006). "Did Ralph Nader spoil Al Gore's Presidential bid? A ballot-level study of Green and Reform Party voters in the 2000 Presidential election". Quarterly Journal of Political Science. 2 (3). Now Publishing Inc.: 205–226. doi:10.1561/100.00005039. Pdf.
- ^ Roberts, Joel (July 27, 2004). "Nader to crash Dems' party?". CBS News.
- ^ Devine, Christopher J.; Kopko, Kyle C. (2021-09-01). "Did Gary Johnson and Jill Stein Cost Hillary Clinton the Presidency? A Counterfactual Analysis of Minor Party Voting in the 2016 US Presidential Election". The Forum. 19 (2): 173–201. doi:10.1515/for-2021-0011. ISSN 1540-8884. S2CID 237457376.
The perception that Johnson and Stein 'stole' the 2016 presidential election from Clinton is widespread...Our analysis indicates that Johnson and Stein did not deprive Clinton of an Electoral College majority, nor Trump the legitimacy of winning the national popular vote.
- ^ Haberman, Maggie; Hakim, Danny; Corasaniti, Nick (2020-09-22). "How Republicans Are Trying to Use the Green Party to Their Advantage". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2024-08-28.
Four years ago, the Green Party candidate played a significant role in several crucial battleground states, drawing a vote total in three of them — Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — that exceeded the margin between Donald J. Trump and Hillary Clinton.
- ^ Schreckinger, Ben (2017-06-20). "Jill Stein Isn't Sorry". POLITICO Magazine. Retrieved 2023-06-07.
- ^ Levy, Marc (2024-08-21). "Democrats get a third-party hopeful knocked off Pennsylvania ballot, as Cornel West tries to get on". AP News. Retrieved 2024-08-28.
Republicans and Democrats view third-party candidates as a threat to siphon critical support from their nominees, especially considering that Pennsylvania was decided by margins of tens of thousands of votes both in 2020 for Democrat Joe Biden and in 2016 for Trump.
- ^ Slodysko, Brian (2024-07-16). "Kennedy and West third-party ballot drives are pushed by secretive groups and Republican donors". AP News. Retrieved 2024-08-25.
there are signs across the country that groups are trying to affect the outcome by using deceptive means — and in most cases in ways that would benefit Republican Donald Trump. Their aim is to whittle away President Joe Biden's standing with the Democratic Party's base by offering left-leaning, third-party alternatives who could siphon off a few thousand protest votes in close swing state contests...Legal experts say elections will continue to be susceptible to dirty tricks and chicanery unless the more states adopt different methods of casting a ballot, like ranked choice voting, which allows voters to weight their candidate preferences.
- ^ Schleifer, Theodore (2024-08-29). "To Beat Trump, Democrats Seek to Help Anti-Abortion Candidate". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2024-08-30.
- ^ Gift, Thomas (2024-01-11). "US election: third party candidates can tip the balance in a tight race – here's why Robert F Kennedy Jr matters". The Conversation. Retrieved 2024-08-27.
- ^ a b c Milligan, Susan (March 22, 2024). "The Promise and the Perils of the Third-Party Candidate". US News and World Report.
And despite the contenders' claims that the nation deserves an alternative to two unpopular major party choices, the reality, experts say, is that these back-of-the-pack candidates may well cement the election of the candidate they least want in the White House.
- ^ Skelley, Geoffrey (2023-07-13). "Why A Third-Party Candidate Might Help Trump — And Spoil The Election For Biden". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2024-08-28.
- ^ Burden, Barry C. (2024-04-30). "Third parties will affect the 2024 campaigns, but election laws written by Democrats and Republicans will prevent them from winning". The Conversation. Retrieved 2024-08-28.
- ^ DeSilver, Drew (2024-06-27). "Third-party and independent candidates for president often fall short of early polling numbers". Pew Research Center. Retrieved 2024-08-28.