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2024 Pacific hurricane season

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2024 Pacific hurricane season
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formedJuly 4, 2024
(record latest in the satellite era)
Last system dissipatedSeason ongoing
Strongest storm
NameCarlotta
 • Maximum winds90 mph (150 km/h)
(1-minute sustained)
 • Lowest pressure979 mbar (hPa; 28.91 inHg)
Seasonal statistics
Total depressions6
Total storms6
Hurricanes1
Total fatalitiesNone
Total damageNone
Related articles
Pacific hurricane seasons
2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026

The 2024 Pacific hurricane season is the ongoing Pacific hurricane season in the Northern Hemisphere. It officially began on May 15 in the eastern Pacific basin (east of 140°W) and on June 1 in the central Pacific (between 140°W and the International Date Line); both will end on November 30. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis occurs in these regions of the Pacific Ocean.[1] For the third consecutive year, there were no pre-season tropical cyclones in either basin, and the season got off to the slowest start of any Pacific hurricane season on record in the satellite era.[2] The first eastern Pacific tropical storm, Aletta, did not form until July 4.

Seasonal forecasts

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Record Named
storms 		Hurricanes Major
hurricanes 		Ref
Average (1991–2020): 15 8 4 [3]
Record high activity: 1992: 27 2015: 16 2015: 11 [4]
Record low activity: 2010: 8 2010: 3 2003: 0 [4]
Date Source Named
storms 		Hurricanes Major
hurricanes 		Ref
May 6, 2024 SMN 15–18 7–9 3–4 [5]
May 23, 2024 NOAA 11–17 4–9 1–4 [6]
Area Named
storms		 Hurricanes Major
hurricanes		 Ref
Actual activity: EPAC 6 1 0
Actual activity: CPAC 0 0 0
Actual combined activity: 6 1 0

In advance of each Pacific hurricane season, forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Climate Prediction Center and Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN). These include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. According to NOAA, the average eastern Pacific hurricane season between 1991 and 2020 contained roughly 15 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, with a near-normal accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index between 80 and 115.[3] Broadly speaking, ACE is a measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical storm multiplied by the length of time it existed. It is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical and subtropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 39 mph (63 km/h). NOAA typically categorizes a season as above-average, average, or below-average based on the cumulative ACE index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season is sometimes also considered.[3]

On May 6, 2024, SMN issued its forecast for the season, forecasting a total of 15–18 named storms developing, with 7–9 hurricanes, and 3–4 major hurricanes.[5] On May 23, 2024, NOAA issued their outlook, calling for a below-normal season with 11–17 named storms overall, 4–9 hurricanes, 1–4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 50% to 110% of the median.[6]

Seasonal summary

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Main article: Timeline of the 2024 Pacific hurricane season
Saffir–Simpson scale

Background

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Four tropical storms active over the Eastern Pacific basin on August 5, 2024. From left to right are tropical storms Carlotta, Daniel, Emilia and Fabio.

Officially, the 2024 Pacific hurricane season began on May 15 in the Eastern Pacific, on June 1 in the Central Pacific, and both will end on November 30. So far, six tropical cyclones have formed; all became named storms. One of them, Carlotta, became a hurricane.

This season's ACE index, as of August 10, is approximately 15.6 units.[7] This number represents sum of the squares of the maximum sustained wind speed (knots) for all named storms while they are at least tropical storm intensity, divided by 10,000. Therefore, tropical depressions are not included.[3]

Early activity

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The season began unusually quiet, with several weeks of inactivity throughout the basin. The first system, short-lived Tropical Storm Aletta formed on July 4, which made it the latest first named Pacific tropical cyclone to form in the satellite era. It was followed nearly three weeks later by Tropical Storm Bud. A week later on July 31, Hurricane Carlotta formed out of a low-pressure area, later developing into the first hurricane of the season. Three more storms formed in quick succession during the first week of August: Daniel, Emilia, and Fabio.

Systems

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Tropical Storm Aletta

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Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationJuly 4 – July 6
Peak intensity40 mph (65 km/h) (1-min);
1005 mbar (hPa)

On June 29, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted the potential for a low-pressure area to form off the coast of Mexico.[8] On July 2, a broad area of low pressure developed, producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.[9] The thunderstorm activity within the disturbance became better organized late the following day. Tropical Depression One-E formed on the morning of July 4,[10] about 175 mi (280 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Colima.[2] Slightly intensifying, the compact system became Tropical Storm Aletta a few hours later.[11] However, by the next day, Aletta weakened back into a tropical depression due to moderate wind shear.[12] An increasingly marginal environment caused Aletta to degenerate into a remnant low a few hours later.[13]

Tropical Storm Bud

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Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationJuly 24 – July 26
Peak intensity60 mph (95 km/h) (1-min);
1000 mbar (hPa)

On July 21, the NHC began tracking a tropical wave off the coast of Mexico.[14] Despite being in a marginal environment for intensification, on July 24, the system began to develop a more organized structure.[15] The disturbance developed into Tropical Storm Bud at 21:00 UTC the same day.[16] Despite being embedded within an environment of moderate wind shear and dry air,[17] Bud abruptly strengthened several hours later, peaking with sustained winds of 60 mph (95 km/h) on July 25.[18] Bud began to weaken later that day as it entered an even drier environment.[19] The storm degenerated into a post-tropical cyclone the following day.[20]

Hurricane Carlotta

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Category 1 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationJuly 31 – August 6
Peak intensity90 mph (150 km/h) (1-min);
979 mbar (hPa)

On the night of July 25, the NHC noted that a low-pressure area was likely to form several hundred miles off the coast of Mexico.[21] Less than two days later, on July 27, the NHC began tracking a tropical wave south of Guatemala and southern Mexico.[22] Located in an environment conducive for development,[23] the low's circulation became better defined on July 29.[24] The disturbance organized into Tropical Depression Three-E on July 31.[25] Favorable environmental conditions allowed the depression to intensify into Tropical Storm Carlotta six hours later.[26] Carlotta steadily became better organized over the next couple days. After passing just to the north of Clarion Island early on August 2, the cyclone strengthened into a hurricane.[27] Hurricane Carlotta reached its peak intensity early the following day with maximum sustained winds of maximum sustained winds of 90 mph (145 km/h) and a minimum barometric pressure of 979 mbar (28.9 inHg).[28] However, cooler sea surface temperatures (SSTs) caused Carlotta to weaken to a tropical storm on August 4.[29] Carlotta lost most of its deep convection by late that day within a stable environment over even cooler SSTs.[30] The storm degenerated to a remnant low late on August 5.[31]

Tropical Storm Daniel

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Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationAugust 3 – August 6
Peak intensity40 mph (65 km/h) (1-min);
1005 mbar (hPa)

On July 26, the NHC highlighted a low-pressure area in the western portion of the basin for potential tropical development.[32] The disturbance began to quickly organize on August 2, and the formation of a well-defined circulation and tropical-storm-force winds led to its designation as Tropical Storm Daniel the following morning.[33] Daniel struggled to organize as it meandered within an environment of moderate wind shear and dry air.[34] Moving northeastward around Hurricane Carlotta's larger circulation, Daniel became increasingly embedded and less distinctive from the surrounding Intertropical Convergence Zone.[35] Daniel weakened to a tropical depression the afternoon of August 5.[36] The storm opened up into a trough later that day.[37]

Tropical Storm Emilia

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Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationAugust 4 – August 9
Peak intensity70 mph (110 km/h) (1-min);
988 mbar (hPa)

On August 3, the NHC began monitoring a tropical disturbance Well South of the Baja California peninsula and to the west of another developing disturbance.[38] The following day, it quickly developed into Tropical Depression Five‑E.[39] The newly-formed cyclone strengthened into Tropical Storm Emilia early the next day.[40] The forecast for Emilia was uncertain,[41] and dependent on the nearby disturbance, which developed into Tropical Storm Fabio on August 5.[42] Emilia steadily strengthened as the two cyclones interacted. After initially moving southward, the storm gradually turned back to the west then northward.[43][44] Then, on August 7, Emilia absorbed the remnants of Fabio.[45] Emilia produced little organized convection the following day, as it crossed the 75 °F (24 °C) isotherm towards even cooler waters.[46] It degenerated into a post-tropical remnant low by 03:00 UTC on August 9, about 980 mi (1580 km) west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.[47]

Tropical Storm Fabio

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Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationAugust 5 – August 7
Peak intensity65 mph (100 km/h) (1-min);
993 mbar (hPa)

On August 5, a tropical disturbance far southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico in close proximity to Tropical Storm Emilia developed into Tropical Storm Fabio.[42] Moving quickly to the northwest around Emilia, Fabio steadily strengthened and became better organized within a favorable thermodynamic environment. The storm reached its peak intensity early on August 6, with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (105 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 993 millibars (29.3 inHg).[48] However, continued interaction with the larger and stronger Emilia caused Fabio to begin to quickly weaken late that day.[49] The storm degenerated to a post-tropical cyclone on afternoon of August 7, as it succumbed to an increasingly unfavorable environment.[50] Its remnants were absorbed by Emilia soon thereafter.[45]

Storm names

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Main articles: Tropical cyclone naming, History of tropical cyclone naming, and List of historical tropical cyclone names

The following list of names is being used for named storms that form in the North Pacific Ocean east of 140°W during 2024.[51] This is the same list used in the 2018 season.[52]

  • Aletta
  • Bud
  • Carlotta
  • Daniel
  • Emilia
  • Fabio
  • Gilma (unused)
  • Hector (unused)
  • Ileana (unused)
  • John (unused)
  • Kristy (unused)
  • Lane (unused)
  • Miriam (unused)
  • Norman (unused)
  • Olivia (unused)
  • Paul (unused)
  • Rosa (unused)
  • Sergio (unused)
  • Tara (unused)
  • Vicente (unused)
  • Willa (unused)
  • Xavier (unused)
  • Yolanda (unused)
  • Zeke (unused)

For storms that form in the North Pacific from 140°W to the International Date Line, the names come from a series of four rotating lists. Names are used one after the other without regard to year, and when the bottom of one list is reached, the next named storm receives the name at the top of the next list.[51]

Season effects

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This is a table of all of the storms that have formed in the 2024 Pacific hurricane season. It includes their name, duration, peak classification and intensities, areas affected, damage, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low, and all of the damage figures are in 2024 USD.

Saffir–Simpson scale
TD TS C1 C2 C3 C4 C5
2024 Pacific hurricane season season statistics
Storm
name 		Dates active Storm category
at peak intensity 		Max 1-min
wind
mph (km/h) 		Min.
press.
(mbar) 		Areas affected Damage
(USD) 		Deaths Ref(s)
Aletta July 4–6 Tropical storm 40 (65) 1005 Socorro Island None None
Bud July 24–26 Tropical storm 60 (95) 1000 Clarion Island None None
Carlotta July 31 – August 6 Category 1 hurricane 90 (150) 979 Clarion Island None None
Daniel August 3–6 Tropical storm 40 (65) 1005 None None None
Emilia August 4–9 Tropical storm 70 (110) 988 Clarion Island None None
Fabio August 5–7 Tropical storm 65 (100) 993 Revillagigedo Islands None None
Season aggregates
6 systems July 4 – Season ongoing   90 (150) 979 0 0  

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Hurricanes Frequently Asked Questions". Miami, Florida: NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. June 1, 2023. Retrieved December 19, 2023.
  2. ^ a b Masters, Jeff; Henson, Bob (July 4, 2024). "Hurricane Beryl weakens, spares the Cayman Islands". New Haven, Connecticut: Yale Climate Connections. Retrieved July 5, 2024.
  3. ^ a b c d "Background Information: Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season". College Park, Maryland: NOAA Climate Prediction Center. May 14, 2022. Retrieved June 1, 2023.
  4. ^ a b "Northeast Pacific Ocean Historical Tropical Cyclone Statistics". Fort Collins, Colorado: Colorado State University. Retrieved May 6, 2024.
  5. ^ a b "Temporada de Ciclones Tropicales 2024". Mexico City, Mexico: Gobierno de Mexico. May 6, 2024. Retrieved May 6, 2024.
  6. ^ a b "NOAA 2024 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook". Climate Prediction Center. May 23, 2024. Archived from the original on May 28, 2020. Retrieved May 23, 2024.
  7. ^ "Real-Time Tropical Cyclone North Atlantic Ocean Statistics". Fort Collins, Colorado: Colorado State University. Retrieved August 10, 2024.
  8. ^ Roberts, Dave (June 29, 2024). Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 4, 2024.
  9. ^ Reinhart, Brad (July 2, 2024). Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 4, 2024.
  10. ^ Reinhart, Brad (July 4, 2024). Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 1 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 4, 2024.
  11. ^ Reinhart, Brad (July 4, 2024). Tropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number 2 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 4, 2024.
  12. ^ Pasch, Richard (July 5, 2024). Tropical Depression Aletta Discussion Number 3 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 5, 2024.
  13. ^ Hagen, Andrew; Cangialosi, John (July 5, 2024). Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta Discussion Number 7 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 6, 2024.
  14. ^ Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. July 21, 2024. Retrieved July 21, 2024.
  15. ^ Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. July 24, 2024. Retrieved July 24, 2024.
  16. ^ Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 1 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. July 24, 2024. Retrieved July 24, 2024.
  17. ^ Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 3 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. July 25, 2024. Retrieved July 25, 2024.
  18. ^ Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 4 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. July 25, 2024. Retrieved July 25, 2024.
  19. ^ Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 7 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. July 25, 2024. Retrieved July 25, 2024.
  20. ^ Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud Discussion Number 10 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. July 26, 2024. Retrieved July 26, 2024.
  21. ^ Beven, Jack (2024-07-25). Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2024-07-30.
  22. ^ Reinhart, Brad (2024-07-27). Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2024-07-30.
  23. ^ Kelly, Larry (2024-07-29). Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2024-07-30.
  24. ^ Kelly, Larry (2024-07-29). Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2024-07-30.
  25. ^ Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 1 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. July 31, 2024. Retrieved July 31, 2024.
  26. ^ Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 2 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. July 31, 2024. Retrieved July 31, 2024.
  27. ^ Papin, Philippe (August 2, 2024). Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number 9 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 2, 2024.
  28. ^ John Cangialosi (August 3, 2024). Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number 12 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 7, 2024.
  29. ^ Reinhart, Brad (August 4, 2024). Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 16 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 4, 2024.
  30. ^ David Zelinsky (August 4, 2024). Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 18 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 7, 2024.
  31. ^ Kevin Kodama (August 5, 2024). Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Discussion Number 23 (Report). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 7, 2024.
  32. ^ Reinhart, Brad (2024-07-26). Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2024-08-03.
  33. ^ Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 1 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. August 3, 2024. Retrieved August 3, 2024.
  34. ^ Daniel Brown (August 3, 2024). Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 3 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 3, 2024.
  35. ^ Dave Roberts (August 5, 2024). Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 8 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 7, 2024.
  36. ^ David Zelinsky; Samantha Camposano (August 5, 2024). Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 10 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 7, 2024.
  37. ^ Dave Roberts (August 5, 2024). Remnants of Daniel Discussion Number 11 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 7, 2024.
  38. ^ Hagen, Andrew; Brown, Daniel (August 3, 2024). Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 3, 2024.
  39. ^ Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 1 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. August 4, 2024. Retrieved August 4, 2024.
  40. ^ Hagen, Andrew; Roberts, Dave (August 4, 2024). Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 3 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 4, 2024.
  41. ^ Bucci, Lisa (August 5, 2024). Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 4 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 8, 2024.
  42. ^ a b Beven, Jack (August 5, 2024). Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 1 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
  43. ^ Beven, Jack (August 5, 2024). Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 6 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 7, 2024.
  44. ^ Hagen, Andrew; Hogsett, Wallace (August 6, 2024). Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 10 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 7, 2024.
  45. ^ a b Papin, Philippe (August 7, 2024). Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 15 (Report). Miami Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 7, 2024.
  46. ^ Papin, Philippe (August 8, 2024). Post-Tropical Cyclone Emilia Discussion Number 19 (Report). Miami Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 8, 2024.
  47. ^ Papin, Philippe (August 8, 2024). Post-Tropical Cyclone Emilia Advisory Number 19 (Report). Miami Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 8, 2024.
  48. ^ Roberts, Dave (August 6, 2024). Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 4 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 7, 2024.
  49. ^ Hagen, Andrew; Beven, Jack (August 6, 2024). Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 7 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 7, 2024.
  50. ^ Roberts, Dave (August 7, 2024). Post-Tropical Cyclone Fabio Discussion Number 10 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved August 7, 2024.
  51. ^ a b "Tropical Cyclone Names". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved December 19, 2023.
  52. ^ "Tropical Cyclone Names". National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on November 27, 2018. Retrieved March 23, 2024.
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