2020 United States presidential election in Florida
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Turnout | 77.17% (of registered voters)[1] ![]() | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Florida |
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The 2020 United States presidential election in Florida was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election, in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated.[2] Florida voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent president Donald Trump, and his running mate, Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic Party nominee, former vice president Joe Biden, and his running mate, United States senator Kamala Harris, of California. Florida had 29 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]
Florida was one of six states as well as Washington, D.C., where Trump received a greater percentage of the two-party vote than he did in 2016.[a]
Miami Beach, Florida, which hosted the 1972 Democratic National Convention, was a finalist to host the 2020 Democratic National Convention.[4] The other finalists were Milwaukee and Houston; Milwaukee was chosen.[5][6] Florida was Trump's state of residency for this election; New York was his home state in 2016.[7] Trump was the first nominee of either major party to be a Florida resident. Biden was selected as the Democratic nominee in the 2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary on March 17, 2020.
Before the election, aggregate polls had Biden in the lead in Florida by up to almost 3 percentage points. Despite this, Trump won the Sunshine State by a 3.4-point margin, improving on his margin from 2016, over Hillary Clinton, by 1.2 points; it was the largest margin for any presidential election in Florida since 2004. The main reason was increased support for Trump among Latino voters in the state, particularly in Miami-Dade County, which Biden carried by 7.4 points, significantly less than Clinton's 29.4-point margin in 2016 and Obama's 23.7-point margin in 2012.[8] Trump carried the Cuban vote with 56%, while Biden carried the Puerto Rican vote with 66%, and Trump and Biden split the South American vote with 50% each. Overall, Biden won 54% of Latinos.[9][10] In this election, Florida voted 7.8 points right of the nation as a whole, the furthest it has voted from the nation since 1988, when the state voted 14.6 points right of the national result. This was the first election in which Florida backed the losing candidate since 1992, when the losing candidate, George H.W. Bush, was also an incumbent Republican. Despite the rightward shift, Biden became the first Democrat since 1976 to win the heavily urbanized Duval County, historically a Republican stronghold and home to Jacksonville. Similarly, he became the first Democrat to win Seminole County since Harry Truman in 1948.
Primary election
[edit]The primary elections were held on March 17, 2020.
Republican primary
[edit]The Florida Secretary of State declared Rocky De La Fuente to be a major candidate and thus worthy of automatic inclusion on the ballot.
Candidate | Votes | % | Estimated delegates |
---|---|---|---|
Donald Trump (incumbent) | 1,162,984 | 93.79 | 122 |
Bill Weld | 39,319 | 3.17 | |
Joe Walsh (withdrawn) | 25,464 | 2.05 | |
Rocky De La Fuente | 12,172 | 0.98 | |
Total | 1,239,939 | 100% | 122 |
Democratic primary
[edit]Three Democrats were still in the race by the time Florida held its primaries: Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, former vice president Joe Biden, and representative from Hawaii, Tulsi Gabbard.[13][14][15]
The first Democratic debate took place in Miami over two nights at the end of June 2019. It was broadcast on several of the NBC networks.[16]
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/24/Florida_Democratic_presidential_primary_election_results_by_county_margins%2C_2020.svg/350px-Florida_Democratic_presidential_primary_election_results_by_county_margins%2C_2020.svg.png)
Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[18] |
---|---|---|---|
Joe Biden | 1,077,375 | 61.95 | 162 |
Bernie Sanders | 397,311 | 22.84 | 57 |
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)[b] | 146,544 | 8.43 | |
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) | 39,886 | 2.29 | |
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)[b] | 32,875 | 1.89 | |
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) | 17,276 | 0.99 | |
Tulsi Gabbard | 8,712 | 0.50 | |
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) | 5,286 | 0.30 | |
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) | 4,244 | 0.24 | |
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) | 2,510 | 0.14 | |
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) | 1,744 | 0.10 | |
John Delaney (withdrawn) | 1,583 | 0.09 | |
Cory Booker (withdrawn) | 1,507 | 0.09 | |
Julián Castro (withdrawn) | 1,036 | 0.06 | |
Joe Sestak (withdrawn) | 664 | 0.04 | |
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) | 661 | 0.04 | |
Total | 1,739,214 | 100% | 219 |
General election
[edit]Final predictions
[edit]Source | Ranking |
---|---|
The Cook Political Report[19] | Tossup |
Inside Elections[20] | Tilt D (flip) |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[21] | Lean R |
Politico[22] | Tossup |
RCP[23] | Tossup |
Niskanen[24] | Tossup |
CNN[25] | Tossup |
The Economist[26] | Lean D (flip) |
CBS News[27] | Tossup |
270towin[28] | Tossup |
ABC News[29] | Tossup |
NPR[30] | Tossup |
NBC News[31] | Lean D (flip) |
538[32] | Lean D (flip) |
Polling
[edit]Graphical summary
![]() | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided[c] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
270 to Win[33] | October 24 – November 1, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 48.7% | 46.0% | 5.3% | Biden +2.7 |
Real Clear Politics[34] | October 28 – November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 47.9% | 47.0% | 5.1% | Biden +0.9 |
FiveThirtyEight[35] | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 49.1% | 46.6% | 4.3% | Biden +2.5 |
Average | 48.6% | 46.5% | 4.9% | Biden +2.1 |
State polls
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Howie Hawkins Green |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Insider Advantage/Fox 35[36] | Nov 1–2, 2020[e] | 400 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 47% | 2% | - | – | 3% |
Trafalgar Group[37] | Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2020 | 1,054 (LV) | ± 2.94% | 49% | 47% | 2% | - | 1%[f] | 1% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios[38] | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 8,792 (LV) | ± 1.5% | 49%[g] | 49% | - | - | – | – |
AYTM/Aspiration[39] | Oct 30 – Nov 1, 2020 | 517 (LV) | – | 43% | 45% | - | - | – | – |
Change Research/CNBC[40] | Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020 | 806 (LV) | ± 3.45% | 48% | 51% | 0% | 0% | – | 1% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness[41][A] | Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 47% | 46% | 2% | - | 2%[h] | 3% |
Quinnipiac University[42] | Oct 28 – Nov 1, 2020 | 1,657 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 42% | 47% | - | - | 1%[f] | 9% |
Swayable[43] | Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 | 1,261 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 53% | 1% | 1% | – | – |
Data for Progress[44] | Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 | 1,202 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 51% | 1% | 1% | 0%[i] | – |
Ipsos/Reuters[45] | Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 | 670 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 46%[j] | 50% | 1% | 0% | 1%[k] | – |
46%[l] | 50% | - | - | 2%[m] | 2% | ||||
47%[n] | 51% | - | - | 2%[o] | – | ||||
Frederick Polls/Compete Everywhere[46][B] | Oct 30–31, 2020 | 768 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 51% | - | - | – | – |
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[47] | Oct 29–31, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 48% | - | - | 3%[p] | – |
Siena College/NYT Upshot[48] | Oct 27–31, 2020 | 1,451 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 47% | 2% | 1% | 0%[q] | 6%[r] |
Morning Consult[49] | Oct 22–31, 2020 | 4,451 (LV) | ± 2% | 45% | 52% | - | - | – | – |
St. Pete Polls[50] | Oct 29–30, 2020 | 2,758 (LV) | ± 1.9% | 48% | 49% | 1% | - | – | 2% |
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ[51] | Oct 28–30, 2020 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 47%[j] | 51% | - | - | 2%[o] | 0% |
45%[s] | 52% | - | - | 2%[o] | 0% | ||||
48%[t] | 49% | - | - | 2%[o] | 0% | ||||
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart[52] | Oct 25–30, 2020 | 1,027 (LV) | – | 47% | 51% | - | - | 2%[u] | – |
AtlasIntel[53] | Oct 28–29, 2020 | 786 (LV) | ± 3% | 48.5% | 48.5% | - | - | – | 3% |
Public Policy Polling/Climate Power 2020[54][C] | Oct 28–29, 2020 | 941 (V) | – | 45% | 52% | - | - | – | 3% |
Harvard-Harris/The Hill[55] | Oct 26–29, 2020 | 1,148 (LV) | ± >=3% | 47% | 50% | - | - | – | 3% |
ABC/Washington Post[56] | Oct 24–29, 2020 | 824 (LV) | ± 4% | 50% | 48% | 1% | 0% | 0%[v] | 0% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[57] | Oct 27–28, 2020 | 1,587 (LV) | – | 46% | 50% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Trafalgar Group[58] | Oct 25–28, 2020 | 1,088 (LV) | ± 2.89% | 50% | 47% | 2% | - | 1%[f] | 1% |
Monmouth University[59] | Oct 24–28, 2020 | 509 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 45% | 50% | 1% | 0% | 1%[w] | 2% |
509 (LV) | 45%[x] | 51% | - | - | – | – | |||
46%[y] | 50% | - | - | – | – | ||||
SurveyMonkey/Axios[38] | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 14,571 (LV) | – | 50% | 48% | - | - | – | – |
Marist College/NBC[60] | Oct 25–27, 2020 | 743 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 51% | - | - | 1% | 1% |
Quinnipiac University[61] | Oct 23–27, 2020 | 1,324 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 42% | 45% | - | - | 1%[f] | 11% |
Ipsos/Reuters[62] | Oct 21–27, 2020 | 704 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 47%[j] | 48% | 1% | 1% | 2%[z] | – |
47%[l] | 49% | - | - | 3%[aa] | 2% | ||||
Swayable[63] | Oct 23–26, 2020 | 605 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 51% | 46% | 2% | 1% | – | – |
YouGov/Institute of Politics at Florida State University[64] | Oct 16–26, 2020 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 48% | - | - | – | 6% |
Wick Surveys[65] | Oct 24–25, 2020 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 50% | 47% | - | - | – | – |
Florida Atlantic University[66] | Oct 24–25, 2020 | 937 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 50% | - | - | 2%[ab] | – |
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness[67][A] | Oct 23–25, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 44% | 2% | - | 3%[ac] | 3% |
Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research[68] |
Oct 17–25, 2020 | 743 (RV) | ± 3.56% | 46% | 49% | - | - | 2%[ab] | 3% |
Ryan Tyson (R)[69] | Released Oct 24, 2020 | – (V)[ad] | – | 47% | 45% | - | - | 3%[ae] | 4% |
Gravis Marketing[70] | Oct 24, 2020 | 665 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 47% | - | - | – | 5% |
YouGov/CBS[71] | Oct 20–23, 2020 | 1,228 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 50% | - | - | 2%[af] | 0% |
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics[72] | Oct 21–22, 2020 | 2,527 (LV) | ± 2% | 47% | 49% | - | - | 2%[ag] | 2% |
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ[73] | Oct 20–22, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48%[j] | 50% | - | - | 1%[ah] | 1% |
46%[s] | 52% | - | - | 1%[ah] | 1% | ||||
48%[t] | 46% | - | - | 1%[ah] | 1% | ||||
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[74] | Oct 20–21, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 46% | - | - | 3%[ai] | 3% |
Ipsos/Reuters[75] | Oct 14–21, 2020 | 662 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 46%[j] | 51% | 1% | 0% | 2%[z] | – |
46%[l] | 50% | - | - | 1%[aj] | 3% | ||||
Citizen Data[76] | Oct 17–20, 2020 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 50% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 4% |
Civiqs/Daily Kos[77] | Oct 17–20, 2020 | 863 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 51% | - | - | 1%[f] | 1% |
CNN/SSRS[78] | Oct 15–20, 2020 | 847 (LV) | ± 4% | 46% | 50% | 1% | 1% | 0%[ak] | 1% |
Morning Consult[49] | Oct 11–20, 2020 | 4,685 (LV) | ± 1.4% | 45% | 52% | - | - | – | – |
Change Research/CNBC[79] | Oct 16–19, 2020 | 547 (LV)[e] | – | 45% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
University of North Florida[80] | Oct 12–16, 2020 | 863 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 48% | - | - | 1%[f] | 3% |
HarrisX/The Hill[81][1] | Oct 12–15, 2020 | 965 (LV) | – | 48% | 48% | - | - | – | 4% |
Ipsos/Reuters[82] | Oct 7–14, 2020 | 653 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47%[j] | 50% | 0% | 0% | 2%[al] | – |
47%[l] | 49% | - | - | 1%[aj] | 3% | ||||
Trafalgar Group[83] | Oct 11–13, 2020 | 1,051 (LV) | ± 2.94% | 48% | 46% | 2% | 1% | 1%[f] | 2% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[84] | Oct 10–13, 2020 | 1,519 (LV) | – | 44%[e] | 50% | 1% | 0% | – | – |
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics[85] | Oct 11–12, 2020 | 2,215 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 47% | 49% | - | - | 1%[am] | 2% |
Emerson College[86] | Oct 10–12, 2020 | 690 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48%[an] | 51% | - | - | 1%[f] | – |
Mason-Dixon[87] | Oct 8–12, 2020 | 625 (LV) | ± 4% | 45% | 48% | - | - | 1%[ao] | 6% |
Clearview Research[88] | Oct 7–12, 2020 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.18% | 40%[j] | 47% | - | - | 4%[ap] | 9% |
39%[aq] | 48% | - | - | 4%[ap] | 9% | ||||
41%[ar] | 46% | - | - | 4%[ap] | 9% | ||||
Morning Consult[49] | Oct 2–11, 2020 | 4,785 (LV) | ± 1.4% | 46% | 51% | - | - | – | – |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[84] | Oct 9–10, 2020 | 750 (LV) | – | 42%[e] | 53% | 1% | 0% | – | – |
Florida Atlantic University[89] | Oct 9–10, 2020 | 644 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 51% | - | - | 2%[ab] | – |
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ[90] | Oct 4–8, 2020 | 800 (LV) | – | 46%[j] | 48% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 4% |
44%[s] | 50% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 4% | ||||
47%[t] | 46% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 4% | ||||
Insider Advantage/Insider Advantage/Hannity Exclusive (R)[91] | Oct 6–7, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 46% | 1% | - | – | 10% |
YouGov/CCES[92] | Sep 29 – Oct 7, 2020 | 3,755 (LV) | – | 47% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
Ipsos/Reuters[93] | Sep 29 – Oct 7, 2020 | 678 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 45% | 49% | - | - | 1%[aj] | 5% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[94] | Oct 4–6, 2020 | 998 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 49% | 1% | 0% | 1%[as] | 6% |
Quinnipiac University[95] | Oct 1–5, 2020 | 1,256 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 40% | 51% | - | - | 1%[f] | 7% |
Change Research/CNBC[96] | Oct 2–4, 2020 | 560 (LV) | – | 46% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
Suffolk University/USA Today[97][2] | Oct 1–4, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45%[j] | 45% | 2% | 0%[at] | 2%[au] | 6% |
46%[av] | 45% | - | - | 2%[aw] | 7% | ||||
University of North Florida[98] | Oct 1–4, 2020 | 3,134 (LV) | ± 1.8% | 45% | 51% | - | - | 1%[f] | 3%[r] |
St. Leo University[99] | Sep 27 – Oct 2, 2020 | 489 (LV) | – | 44% | 50% | - | - | – | 5% |
Siena College/NYT Upshot[100] | Sep 30 – Oct 1, 2020 | 710 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 42% | 47% | 2% | 1% | 0%[q] | 8%[r] |
SurveyMonkey/Axios[38] | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 12,962 (LV) | – | 47% | 51% | - | - | – | 2% |
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[101] | Sep 23–29, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 44%[e] | 49% | - | - | – | – |
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness[102][A] | Sep 23–26, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 43% | 46% | 3% | - | – | 8%[r] |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[103] | Sep 23–25, 2020 | 1,073 (LV) | ± 2.99% | 43% | 48% | 1% | 1% | 1%[as] | 7% |
St. Pete Polls[104] | Sep 21–22, 2020 | 2,906 (LV) | ± 1.8% | 47% | 50% | - | - | 2%[ag] | 2% |
Data For Progress[105][D] | Sep 15–22, 2020 | 620 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 43% | 46% | - | - | – | 11% |
Change Research/CNBC[106] | Sep 18–20, 2020 | 702 (LV) | – | 46% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
ABC/Washington Post[107] | Sep 15–20, 2020 | 613 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 51% | 47% | - | - | 1%[ax] | 1% |
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[108][permanent dead link][E] | Sep 17–19, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 51% | - | - | – | – |
YouGov/CBS[109] | Sep 15–18, 2020 | 1,205 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 48% | - | - | 1%[ay] | 5% |
Ipsos/Reuters[110] | Sep 11–17, 2020 | 586 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 47% | - | - | 2%[m] | 4% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[111] | Sep 12–14, 2020 | 1,158 (LV) | ± 2.88% | 44% | 47% | 1% | 1% | 1%[as] | 6% |
Monmouth University[112] | Sep 10–13, 2020 | 428 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 45% | 50% | 2% | 0% | 1%[az] | 3% |
428 (LV) | 45%[ba] | 50% | - | - | 1%[bb] | 3% | |||
46%[bc] | 49% | - | - | 1%[bb] | 3% | ||||
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report[113] | Aug 29 – Sep 13, 2020 | 1,009 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 43% | - | - | 4%[bd] | 11% |
Florida Atlantic University[114] | Sep 11–12, 2020 | 631 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 50% | 50% | - | - | 0%[be] | – |
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics/AARP[115] | Sep 7–8, 2020 | 2,689 (LV) | ± 1.9% | 47% | 50% | - | - | 2%[ag] | 2% |
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group/AARP[116] | Aug 30 – Sep 8, 2020 | 1,600 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 46% | 48% | - | - | 2%[bf] | 4% |
Morning Consult[117] | Aug 29 – Sep 7, 2020 | 3,914 (LV) | ± (2%-4%) | 43%[bg] | 50% | - | - | – | – |
Change Research/CNBC[118] | Sep 4–6, 2020 | 1,144 (LV) | – | 46% | 49% | - | - | 4%[bh] | – |
Marist College/NBC[119] | Aug 31 – Sep 5, 2020 | 760 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 48% | 48% | - | - | 1% | 2% |
Trafalgar Group[120] | Sep 1–3, 2020 | 1,022 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 46% | 2% | - | 1%[bi] | 2% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[121] | Aug 30 – Sep 3, 2020 | 1,093 (LV) | ± 2.96% | 43% | 48% | 1% | 1% | 1%[as] | 6% |
GQR Research (D)[122] | Aug 26 – Sep 3, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 51% | - | - | – | – |
Quinnipiac[123] | Aug 28 – Sep 1, 2020 | 1,235 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 48% | - | - | 1%[f] | 5% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios[38] | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 12,286 (LV) | – | 50% | 48% | - | - | – | 2% |
Morning Consult[124] | Aug 21–30, 2020 | 3,790 (LV) | ± (2%–4%) | 47% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
Opinium/The Guardian[125][3] | Aug 21–26, 2020 | 684 (LV) | – | 43% | 50% | - | - | 1% | 6% |
Change Research/CNBC[126] | Aug 21–23, 2020 | 1,262 (LV) | – | 46% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
PPP[127] | Aug 21–22, 2020 | 671 (V) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 48% | - | - | – | 7% |
Redfield and Wilton Strategies[128] | Aug 16, 2020 | 1,280 (LV) | – | 41% | 49% | 1% | - | 1%[as] | 7% |
Morning Consult[124] | Aug 7–16, 2020 | 3,484 (LV) | ± (2%–4%) | 45% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance[129][F] | Aug 11–15, 2020 | 750 (LV) | ± 4% | 44% | 46% | 2% | - | 1%[bj] | 6% |
Change Research/CNBC[130] | Aug 7–9, 2020 | 469 (LV) | – | 44% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
OnMessage Inc./Heritage Action[131][G] | Aug 2–4, 2020 | 400 (LV) | – | 49% | 49% | - | - | – | 2% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios[38] | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 13,945 (LV) | – | 48% | 49% | - | - | – | 2% |
Change Research/CNBC[132][4] | Jul 24–26, 2020 | 685 (LV) | – | 45% | 48% | - | - | – | – |
Morning Consult[133] | Jul 17–26, 2020 | 3,760 (LV) | ± 1.6% | 46%[bg] | 49% | - | - | – | – |
Morning Consult[133] | Jul 16–25, 2020 | – (LV)[ad] | – | 45% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
CNN/SSRS[134] | Jul 18–24, 2020 | 880 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 46% | 51% | - | - | 2%[bk] | 2% |
Zogby Analytics[135] | Jul 21–23, 2020 | 811 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 43% | 3% | 2% | – | 9% |
Mason-Dixon[136] | Jul 20–23, 2020 | 625 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 50% | - | - | – | 4% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[137] | Jul 19–21, 2020 | 1,121 (LV) | – | 41% | 48% | 1% | 1% | 1%[as] | 8% |
Quinnipiac University[138] | Jul 16–20, 2020 | 924 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 38% | 51% | - | - | 6%[bl] | 5% |
Morning Consult[133] | Jul 6–15, 2020 | – (LV)[ad] | – | 45% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
Florida Politics/AARP Florida/St. Pete Polls[139] | Jul 13–14, 2020 | 3,018 (RV) | ± 1.8% | 44% | 50% | - | - | 2%[bm] | 3% |
Gravis Marketing[140] | Jul 13, 2020 | 513 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 43% | 53% | - | - | – | 4% |
Change Research/CNBC[141] | Jul 10–12, 2020 | 1,128 (LV) | – | 43% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
YouGov/CBS[142] | Jul 7–10, 2020 | 1,206 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 42% | 48% | - | - | 2%[bn] | 8% |
Morning Consult[133] | Jun 26 – Jul 5, 2020 | – (LV)[ad] | – | 46% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
Trafalgar Group[143] | Jun 29 – Jul 2, 2020 | 1,072 (LV) | ± 2.91% | 46% | 46% | - | - | 5%[bo] | 3% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios[38] | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 5,663 (LV) | – | 51% | 47% | - | - | – | 2% |
Change Research/CNBC[144] | Jun 26–28, 2020 | 951 (LV)[e] | – | 45% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
Morning Consult[133] | Jun 16–25, 2020 | – (LV)[ad] | – | 45% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
Fox News[145] | Jun 20–23, 2020 | 1,010 (RV) | ± 3% | 40% | 49% | - | - | 6%[bp] | 6% |
Siena College/NYT Upshot[146] | Jun 8–18, 2020 | 651 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 41% | 47% | - | - | 4%[bq] | 7% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[147] | Jun 14–15, 2020 | 1,079 (LV) | ± 2.98% | 41% | 45% | 1% | 1% | 1%[as] | 11% |
Morning Consult[133] | Jun 6–15, 2020 | – (LV)[ad] | – | 45% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
Change Research/CNBC[148] | Jun 12–14, 2020 | 713 (LV)[e] | – | 43% | 50% | - | - | 3%[br] | – |
Gravis Marketing/OANN[149] | Released Jun 11, 2020 | – (V)[ad] | – | 50% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
TIPP/American Greatness PAC[150][A] | Jun 9–11, 2020 | 875 (LV) | – | 40% | 51% | - | - | 4%[bs] | 5% |
Morning Consult[133] | May 27 – Jun 5, 2020 | – (LV)[ad] | – | 48% | 47% | - | - | – | – |
Change Research/CNBC[151] | May 29–31, 2020 | 1,186 (LV)[e] | – | 45% | 48% | - | - | 2% | 4% |
Cygnal (R)[152] | May 18–30, 2020 | 881 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 43.8% | 47% | - | - | 3.3%[bt] | 5.9% |
St. Pete Polls[153] | May 26–27, 2020 | 4,763 (RV) | ± 1.4% | 46.7% | 47.5% | - | - | 2.7%[bu] | 3.1% |
Morning Consult[133] | May 17–26, 2020 | 3,593 (LV) | – | 48%[bg] | 47% | - | - | – | – |
Morning Consult[133] | May 16–25, 2020 | – (LV)[ad] | – | 48% | 47% | - | - | – | – |
Point Blank Political[154] | May 14–17, 2020 | 2,149 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 45% | 1%[bv] | <1%[bw] | 2% | 8% |
Point Blank Political[154] | May 14–17, 2020 | 2,149 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 52% | - | - | – | – |
Morning Consult[133] | May 6–15, 2020 | – (LV)[ad] | – | 50% | 45% | - | - | – | – |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[155] | May 10–14, 2020 | 1,014 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 45% | - | - | 3%[bx] | 10% |
Florida Atlantic University[156] | May 8–12, 2020 | 928 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 53% | - | - | – | – |
Fox News[157] | Apr 18–21, 2020 | 1,004 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 46% | - | - | 3% | 7% |
Quinnipiac University[158] | Apr 16–20, 2020 | 1,385 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 42% | 46% | - | - | 3% | 7% |
St. Pete Polls[159] | Apr 16–17, 2020 | 5,659 (RV) | ± 1.3% | 48% | 48% | - | - | – | 4% |
University of North Florida[160] | Mar 31 – Apr 4, 2020 | 3,244 (RV) | ± 1.7% | 40% | 46% | - | - | – | 8% |
AtlasIntel[161] | Mar 14–16, 2020 | 1,100 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 45% | - | - | 10% | – |
Univision[162] | Mar 6–12, 2020 | 1,071 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 45% | - | - | – | 7% |
Florida Atlantic University[163] | Mar 5–7, 2020 | 1,216 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 51% | 49% | - | - | – | – |
University of North Florida[98] | Feb, 2020 | 696 (LV) | – | 45% | 45% | - | - | – | 10%[r] |
Saint Leo University[164] | Feb 17–22, 2020 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 51% | - | - | – | 8% |
University of North Florida[165] | Feb 10–18, 2020 | 668 (RV) | – | 48% | 49% | - | - | – | 3% |
Florida Atlantic University[166] | Jan 9–12, 2020 | 1,285 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 49% | 51% | - | - | – | – |
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[167][H] | Jan 3–12, 2020 | 608 (LV) | ± 4% | 49% | 45% | - | - | – | – |
Mason-Dixon[168] | Dec 11–16, 2019 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 47% | - | - | – | 8% |
Siena College/NYT Upshot[169] | Oct 13–26, 2019 | 650 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 46% | - | - | – | – |
University of North Florida[170] | Oct 14–20, 2019 | 643 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 43% | 48% | - | - | 6%[by] | 3% |
Florida Atlantic University[171] | Sep 12–15, 2019 | 934 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 50.5% | 49.5% | - | - | – | – |
Quinnipiac University[172] | Jun 12–17, 2019 | 1,279 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 41% | 50% | - | - | 1% | 6% |
St. Pete Polls[173] | Jun 15–16, 2019 | 3,095 (LV) | ± 1.8% | 47% | 47% | - | - | – | 6% |
Florida Atlantic University[174] | May 16–19, 2019 | 1,007 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 50% | - | - | – | – |
WPA Intelligence[175] | Apr 27–30, 2019 | 200 (LV) | ± 6.9% | 48% | 44% | - | - | – | 7% |
Former candidates
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---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar
Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
|
Hypothetical polling
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---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
with Donald Trump and Oprah Winfrey
with Donald Trump and generic Democrat
with Donald Trump and generic Opponent
with Mike Pence and Joe Biden
with Mike Pence and Kamala Harris
with Mike Pence and Elizabeth Warren
|
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
5,668,731 | 51.22% | +2.20% | |
Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
5,297,045 | 47.86% | +0.04% | |
Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
70,324 | 0.64% | −1.56% | |
Green | Howie Hawkins Angela Walker |
14,721 | 0.13% | −0.55% | |
Reform | Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson |
5,966 | 0.05% | −0.05% | |
Socialism and Liberation | Gloria La Riva Sunil Freeman |
5,712 | 0.05% | N/A | |
Constitution | Don Blankenship William Mohr |
3,902 | 0.04% | −0.13% | |
Write-in | 1,055 | 0.01% | −0.26% | ||
Total votes | 11,067,456 | 100.00% |
By county
[edit]County | Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Various candidates Write-ins |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
# | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
Alachua | 50,972 | 35.63% | 89,704 | 62.71% | 2,371 | 1.66% | -38,732 | -27.08% | 143,047 |
Baker | 11,911 | 84.58% | 2,037 | 14.47% | 134 | 0.95% | 9,874 | 70.11% | 14,082 |
Bay | 66,097 | 70.91% | 25,614 | 27.48% | 1,502 | 1.61% | 40,483 | 43.43% | 93,213 |
Bradford | 10,334 | 75.71% | 3,160 | 23.15% | 156 | 1.14% | 7,174 | 52.56% | 13,650 |
Brevard | 207,883 | 57.48% | 148,549 | 41.08% | 5,221 | 1.44% | 59,334 | 16.40% | 361,653 |
Broward | 333,409 | 34.74% | 618,752 | 64.48% | 7,479 | 0.78% | -285,343 | -29.74% | 959,640 |
Calhoun | 5,274 | 80.68% | 1,209 | 18.49% | 54 | 0.83% | 4,065 | 62.19% | 6,537 |
Charlotte | 73,243 | 62.84% | 42,273 | 36.27% | 1,042 | 0.89% | 30,970 | 26.57% | 116,558 |
Citrus | 65,352 | 69.98% | 27,092 | 29.01% | 944 | 1.01% | 38,260 | 40.97% | 93,388 |
Clay | 84,480 | 67.77% | 38,317 | 30.74% | 1,863 | 1.49% | 46,163 | 37.03% | 124,660 |
Collier | 128,950 | 61.91% | 77,621 | 37.27% | 1,714 | 0.82% | 51,329 | 24.64% | 208,285 |
Columbia | 23,836 | 72.03% | 8,914 | 26.94% | 342 | 1.03% | 14,822 | 45.09% | 33,092 |
DeSoto | 8,313 | 65.58% | 4,259 | 33.60% | 104 | 0.82% | 4,054 | 31.98% | 12,676 |
Dixie | 6,759 | 82.70% | 1,365 | 16.70% | 49 | 0.60% | 5,394 | 66.00% | 8,173 |
Duval | 233,762 | 47.30% | 252,556 | 51.11% | 7,843 | 1.59% | -18,794 | -3.81% | 494,161 |
Escambia | 96,674 | 56.58% | 70,929 | 41.51% | 3,253 | 1.91% | 25,745 | 15.07% | 170,856 |
Flagler | 43,043 | 59.90% | 28,161 | 39.19% | 659 | 0.91% | 14,882 | 20.71% | 71,863 |
Franklin | 4,675 | 68.16% | 2,120 | 30.91% | 64 | 0.93% | 2,555 | 37.25% | 6,859 |
Gadsden | 7,465 | 31.42% | 16,153 | 67.98% | 144 | 0.60% | -8,688 | -36.56% | 23,762 |
Gilchrist | 7,895 | 81.37% | 1,700 | 17.52% | 107 | 1.11% | 6,195 | 63.85% | 9,702 |
Glades | 3,782 | 72.69% | 1,385 | 26.62% | 36 | 0.69% | 2,397 | 46.07% | 5,203 |
Gulf | 6,113 | 74.80% | 1,985 | 24.29% | 74 | 0.91% | 4,128 | 50.51% | 8,172 |
Hamilton | 3,815 | 65.33% | 1,963 | 33.61% | 62 | 1.06% | 1,852 | 31.72% | 5,840 |
Hardee | 6,122 | 72.01% | 2,298 | 27.03% | 82 | 0.96% | 3,824 | 44.98% | 8,502 |
Hendry | 7,906 | 61.02% | 4,929 | 38.04% | 121 | 0.94% | 2,977 | 22.98% | 12,956 |
Hernando | 70,412 | 64.51% | 37,519 | 34.37% | 1,219 | 1.12% | 32,893 | 30.14% | 109,150 |
Highlands | 34,873 | 66.75% | 16,938 | 32.42% | 432 | 0.83% | 17,935 | 34.33% | 52,243 |
Hillsborough | 327,398 | 45.85% | 376,367 | 52.71% | 10,303 | 1.44% | -48,969 | -6.86% | 714,068 |
Holmes | 8,080 | 89.01% | 924 | 10.18% | 74 | 0.81% | 7,156 | 78.83% | 9,078 |
Indian River | 58,872 | 60.23% | 37,844 | 38.72% | 1,024 | 1.05% | 21,028 | 21.51% | 97,740 |
Jackson | 15,488 | 68.97% | 6,766 | 30.13% | 202 | 0.90% | 8,722 | 38.84% | 22,456 |
Jefferson | 4,479 | 52.89% | 3,897 | 46.02% | 92 | 1.09% | 382 | 6.87% | 8,468 |
Lafayette | 3,128 | 85.42% | 510 | 13.93% | 24 | 0.65% | 2,618 | 71.49% | 3,662 |
Lake | 125,859 | 59.56% | 83,505 | 39.52% | 1,950 | 0.92% | 42,354 | 20.04% | 211,314 |
Lee | 233,247 | 59.09% | 157,695 | 39.95% | 3,816 | 0.96% | 75,552 | 19.14% | 394,758 |
Leon | 57,453 | 35.14% | 103,517 | 63.32% | 2,506 | 1.54% | -46,064 | -28.18% | 163,476 |
Levy | 16,749 | 72.24% | 6,205 | 26.76% | 231 | 1.00% | 10,544 | 45.48% | 23,185 |
Liberty | 2,846 | 79.83% | 694 | 19.47% | 25 | 0.70% | 2,152 | 60.36% | 3,565 |
Madison | 5,576 | 59.36% | 3,747 | 39.89% | 70 | 0.75% | 1,829 | 19.47% | 9,393 |
Manatee | 124,987 | 57.47% | 90,166 | 41.46% | 2,319 | 1.07% | 34,821 | 16.01% | 217,472 |
Marion | 127,826 | 62.44% | 74,858 | 36.57% | 2,032 | 0.99% | 52,968 | 25.87% | 204,716 |
Martin | 61,168 | 61.82% | 36,893 | 37.29% | 881 | 0.89% | 24,275 | 24.53% | 98,942 |
Miami-Dade | 532,833 | 45.98% | 617,864 | 53.31% | 8,221 | 0.71% | -85,931 | -7.33% | 1,158,918 |
Monroe | 25,693 | 53.38% | 21,881 | 45.46% | 561 | 1.16% | 3,812 | 7.92% | 48,135 |
Nassau | 42,566 | 72.25% | 15,564 | 26.42% | 785 | 1.33% | 27,002 | 45.83% | 58,915 |
Okaloosa | 79,798 | 68.35% | 34,248 | 29.34% | 2,697 | 2.31% | 45,550 | 39.01% | 116,743 |
Okeechobee | 11,470 | 71.76% | 4,390 | 27.46% | 124 | 0.78% | 7,080 | 44.30% | 15,984 |
Orange | 245,398 | 37.80% | 395,014 | 60.85% | 8,745 | 1.35% | -149,616 | -23.05% | 649,157 |
Osceola | 73,480 | 42.53% | 97,297 | 56.31% | 2,007 | 1.16% | -23,817 | -13.78% | 172,784 |
Palm Beach | 334,711 | 43.21% | 433,572 | 55.97% | 6,314 | 0.82% | -98,861 | -12.76% | 774,597 |
Pasco | 179,621 | 59.36% | 119,073 | 39.35% | 3,927 | 1.29% | 60,548 | 20.01% | 302,621 |
Pinellas | 276,209 | 49.22% | 277,450 | 49.44% | 7,502 | 1.34% | -1,241 | -0.22% | 561,161 |
Polk | 194,586 | 56.56% | 145,049 | 42.16% | 4,391 | 1.28% | 49,537 | 14.40% | 344,026 |
Putnam | 25,514 | 70.05% | 10,527 | 28.90% | 381 | 1.05% | 14,987 | 41.15% | 36,422 |
St. Johns | 110,946 | 62.66% | 63,850 | 36.06% | 2,251 | 1.28% | 47,096 | 26.60% | 177,047 |
St. Lucie | 86,831 | 50.38% | 84,137 | 48.82% | 1,381 | 0.80% | 2,694 | 1.56% | 172,349 |
Santa Rosa | 77,385 | 72.19% | 27,612 | 25.76% | 2,201 | 2.05% | 49,773 | 46.43% | 107,198 |
Sarasota | 148,370 | 54.71% | 120,110 | 44.29% | 2,689 | 1.00% | 28,260 | 10.42% | 271,169 |
Seminole | 125,241 | 47.89% | 132,528 | 50.67% | 3,764 | 1.44% | -7,287 | -2.78% | 261,533 |
Sumter | 62,761 | 67.76% | 29,341 | 31.68% | 522 | 0.56% | 33,420 | 36.08% | 92,624 |
Suwannee | 16,410 | 77.84% | 4,485 | 21.27% | 188 | 0.89% | 11,925 | 56.57% | 21,083 |
Taylor | 7,751 | 76.45% | 2,299 | 22.68% | 88 | 0.87% | 5,452 | 53.77% | 10,138 |
Union | 5,133 | 82.11% | 1,053 | 16.85% | 65 | 1.04% | 4,080 | 65.26% | 6,251 |
Volusia | 173,821 | 56.42% | 130,575 | 42.38% | 3,713 | 1.20% | 43,246 | 14.04% | 308,109 |
Wakulla | 12,874 | 69.79% | 5,351 | 29.01% | 223 | 1.20% | 7,523 | 40.78% | 18,448 |
Walton | 32,947 | 75.23% | 10,338 | 23.61% | 510 | 1.16% | 22,609 | 51.62% | 43,795 |
Washington | 9,876 | 80.06% | 2,347 | 19.03% | 112 | 0.91% | 7,529 | 61.03% | 12,335 |
Totals | 5,668,731 | 51.11% | 5,297,045 | 47.76% | 125,982 | 1.13% | 371,686 | 3.35% | 11,091,758 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Duval (largest municipality: Jacksonville)
- Pinellas (largest municipality: St. Petersburg)
- Seminole (largest municipality: Sanford)
By congressional district
[edit]Trump won 15 of 27 congressional districts, while Biden won 12, including one that elected a Republican.[182]
District | Trump | Biden | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 65.9% | 32.4% | Matt Gaetz |
2nd | 67% | 32% | Neal Dunn |
3rd | 56% | 42.8% | Ted Yoho |
Kat Cammack | |||
4th | 59.9% | 38.9% | John Rutherford |
5th | 36.2% | 62.7% | Al Lawson |
6th | 58.3% | 40.8% | Michael Waltz |
7th | 44.2% | 54.6% | Stephanie Murphy |
8th | 58.3% | 40.6% | Bill Posey |
9th | 46% | 52.9% | Darren Soto |
10th | 37% | 62% | Val Demings |
11th | 65.4% | 33.8% | Daniel Webster |
12th | 57.9% | 41% | Gus Bilirakis |
13th | 47.4% | 51.5% | Charlie Crist |
14th | 41.6% | 57.2% | Kathy Castor |
15th | 53.7% | 45.2% | Ross Spano |
Scott Franklin | |||
16th | 53.6% | 45.5% | Vern Buchanan |
17th | 63.3% | 35.9% | Greg Steube |
18th | 53.9% | 45.5% | Brian Mast |
19th | 59.7% | 39.6% | Francis Rooney |
Byron Donalds | |||
20th | 22.1% | 77.3% | Alcee Hastings |
21st | 41.2% | 58.2% | Lois Frankel |
22nd | 42.3% | 57.2% | Ted Deutch |
23rd | 41.2% | 58.3% | Debbie Wasserman Schultz |
24th | 24% | 75.4% | Frederica Wilson |
25th | 61.2% | 38.2% | Mario Díaz-Balart |
26th | 52.5% | 46.9% | Debbie Mucarsel-Powell |
Carlos Giménez | |||
27th | 48.1% | 51.3% | Donna Shalala |
Maria Elvira Salazar |
Analysis
[edit]This election was the first time since 1992, and only the second time since 1960, that Florida went to the losing candidate in a presidential election. It was also the first time since 1960 that both Ohio and Florida have voted for the losing candidate in a presidential election, the first time since 1992 that Florida voted Republican while neighboring Georgia voted Democratic, and the first time since 1992 that Florida voted more Republican than North Carolina. Trump also became the first Republican candidate to win Florida with a majority of the state's popular vote since George W. Bush did so in 2004.[183]
Despite his loss statewide, Biden became the first Democrat to win Duval County—consolidated with Jacksonville—since Southerner Jimmy Carter in 1976, and the first Democrat to win Seminole County since Harry Truman in 1948.[184][185] Biden also flipped Pinellas County back to the Democratic Party. Biden became the first Democrat to win the presidency without carrying Jefferson County since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, and the first Democrat to win the presidency without carrying Monroe County since Grover Cleveland in 1884.[186]
Also, this is the first time since 1888 that Florida increased its margin to an incumbent that lost re-election nationally. Florida was one of six states where Trump received a higher percentage of the vote than he did in 2016.[cd] Florida is one of three states that voted twice for both Barack Obama and Trump, the other two being Ohio and Iowa.
Ex-felons
[edit]The United States Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit, located in Atlanta, ruled that ex-felons could not vote in Florida unless they pay fines and fees. Florida voters approved amendment 4 in November 2018, which restored voting for felons upon completion of all terms of sentence including parole or probation, except for those who committed murders or were involved in sex crimes.[187] The Republican-controlled legislature then passed a law which required ex-felons to settle their financial obligation in courts. The United States District Court in Tallahassee ruled against it in May, but the circuit court overturned it in September, which was speculated to have created further problems for ex-felons when they voted in November. Civil rights organizations including American Civil Liberties Union opposed the decision by the court.[188]
Miami-Dade County
[edit]In Miami-Dade County, the majority of Trump support came from the west and the majority of Biden support came from the east. People of Mexican, Haitian, and African descent tended to vote for Biden, while people of Cuban, Chilean and Colombian descent did so for Trump, as well as the critical Venezuelan vote swinging Republican.[189] Trump won approximately two thirds of the vote in Hialeah, whereas it was nearly evenly split four years prior.[190] Due to the heavy presence of the Cuban-American community, Hialeah traditionally, as of 2020, leaned towards Republican politics.[191] Trump's coattails played a role in the election of Miami Republicans Carlos A. Giménez and Maria Elvira Salazar to the House of Representatives.
Residents of Cuban descent often had an antagonism against leftist movements due to associations with Fidel Castro.[192] Trump sought to attract these voters by implementing anti-Cuba policies.[193]
Additionally, Trump made efforts to target other Hispanic demographics. Trump significantly increased his share of the vote in majority-Hispanic Osceola County, winning 42.53% of the vote, the highest since 2004.[190]
Edison exit polls
[edit]2020 presidential election in Florida by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[194][195] | |||
---|---|---|---|
Demographic subgroup | Biden | Trump | % of
total vote |
Total vote | 47.86 | 51.22 | 100 |
Ideology | |||
Liberals | 83 | 16 | 19 |
Moderates | 59 | 40 | 42 |
Conservatives | 16 | 83 | 39 |
Party | |||
Democrats | 94 | 5 | 30 |
Republicans | 7 | 93 | 38 |
Independents | 54 | 43 | 32 |
Gender | |||
Men | 45 | 54 | 45 |
Women | 51 | 48 | 55 |
Race/ethnicity | |||
White | 37 | 62 | 62 |
Black | 89 | 10 | 14 |
Latino | 53 | 46 | 19 |
Asian | – | – | 1 |
Other | 55 | 44 | 3 |
Age | |||
18–24 years old | 57 | 42 | 7 |
25–29 years old | 64 | 35 | 6 |
30–39 years old | 48 | 50 | 13 |
40–49 years old | 48 | 51 | 13 |
50–64 years old | 45 | 54 | 28 |
65 and older | 45 | 55 | 32 |
Sexual orientation | |||
LGBT | 83 | 15 | 6 |
Not LGBT | 46 | 53 | 94 |
Education | |||
High school or less | 44 | 56 | 19 |
Some college education | 50 | 49 | 25 |
Associate degree | 45 | 53 | 20 |
Bachelor's degree | 49 | 50 | 22 |
Postgraduate degree | 53 | 45 | 14 |
Issue regarded as most important | |||
Racial inequality | 86 | 12 | 13 |
Coronavirus | 88 | 10 | 18 |
Economy | 13 | 87 | 38 |
Crime and safety | 12 | 88 | 10 |
Health care | 83 | 16 | 13 |
Region | |||
North/Panhandle | 41 | 58 | 18 |
Orlando/Central Atlantic | 51 | 48 | 19 |
Tampa Bay area | 48 | 51 | 16 |
Gulf Coast/Mid-Florida | 39 | 60 | 20 |
Miami/Gold Coast | 58 | 41 | 27 |
Area type | |||
Urban | 55 | 44 | 41 |
Suburban | 44 | 55 | 50 |
Rural | 38 | 61 | 9 |
Family's financial situation today | |||
Better than four years ago | 18 | 81 | 44 |
Worse than four years ago | 84 | 15 | 19 |
About the same | 67 | 32 | 36 |
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Florida
- 2020 United States presidential election
- 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2020 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ The other five states were Arkansas, California, Hawaii, Nevada, and Utah.
- ^ a b Candidate withdrew after Super Tuesday when early voting had begun in a few counties.
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ a b c d e f g h Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- ^ "Refused/would not vote" with 2%; "Another candidate" with 0%
- ^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
- ^ a b c d e f g h i Standard VI response
- ^ West (B) with 1%; "Some other candidate" and would not vote with 0%
- ^ a b c d If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
- ^ a b "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
- ^ Results considering those who lean towards a given candidate among those initially predisposed towards abstention, indecision or a candidate besides Biden or Trump in the response section immediately above
- ^ a b c d "Some other candidate" with 2%
- ^ "Someone else" with 3%
- ^ a b "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
- ^ a b c d e Includes "Refused"
- ^ a b c Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
- ^ a b c Results generated with high Republican turnout model
- ^ "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 2%
- ^ "None of these" and "Other" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
- ^ "Other candidate" with 1%; "No one" with 0%
- ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring high turnout
- ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring low turnout
- ^ a b "Some other candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
- ^ a b c "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ "Refused/would not vote" with 2%; "Another candidate" with 1%
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j Not yet released
- ^ "Refused" with 3%
- ^ "Other third party" with 2%
- ^ a b c "Third party" with 2%
- ^ a b c "Some other candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
- ^ a b c "Some other candidate" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
- ^ "Other" and "None of these" with 0%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
- ^ "Third party" with 1%
- ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ "One of the other party or independent tickets" with 1%
- ^ a b c "Someone else" with 4%
- ^ Under a +2 Democratic turnout model
- ^ Under a conservative +2 Republican turnout model
- ^ a b c d e f g "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
- ^ No voters
- ^ "Refused" with 2%; La Riva (PSOL) with 1%; Blankenship (C), Fuente (A) and "other" with no voters
- ^ With the preferences of La Riva and Jorgensen voters in an election featuring only Biden and Trump
- ^ "Refused" with 2%; "Other" with 0%
- ^ "Neither" with 1%; "other" and would not vote with no voters
- ^ "Someone else/third party" with 1%
- ^ "No one" with 1%
- ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
- ^ a b "Other" with 1%
- ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 0%
- ^ Would not vote with 2%
- ^ a b c Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- ^ "Other/not sure" with 4%
- ^ "Another Party Candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Refused" with 1%
- ^ "Other" and "Neither" 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
- ^ "Third-party candidate" with 2%
- ^ "Someone else/third party" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
- ^ "Other party candidate" with 5%
- ^ "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
- ^ "Another candidate" and would not vote with 2%
- ^ "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 3%
- ^ "Other" with 3%; "prefer not to answer" with 1%
- ^ "Third party candidate" with 3.3%
- ^ "Third party" with 2.7%
- ^ "Libertarian nominee" with 1.2%
- ^ "Green nominee" with 0.4%
- ^ "Third party/write-in" with 3%
- ^ a b Would not vote with 6%
- ^ Would not vote with 7%
- ^ a b c Would not vote with 8%
- ^ "Would definitely not vote for Trump" with 51%
- ^ "Consider voting for Trump" with 14%; "don't know/no answer" with 4%
- ^ The other five states were Arkansas, California, Hawaii, Nevada, and Utah, as well as Washington DC.
Partisan clients
- ^ a b c d The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
- ^ Compete Everywhere primarily supports Democratic candidates
- ^ Climate Power 2020 was created by the League of Conservation Voters, which endorsed Biden prior to the sampling period
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.
- ^ The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
- ^ The Consumer Energy Alliance is a pro-Keystone XL lobbying group
- ^ Heritage Action is the sister organisation of the Heritage Foundation, which exclusively endorses Republican candidates
- ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by the Florida Chamber of Commerce PAC
- ^ Poll sponsored by the League of Conservation Voters
References
[edit]- ^ November 3, 2020 General Election, Florida Department of State, Division of Elections.
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- ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Cruise ship hotels, zoo parties and an NBA arena: Miami's Democratic convention pitch". miamiherald. Retrieved July 1, 2018.
- ^ "City of Milwaukee 1 of 3 finalists to host 2020 Democratic National Convention". FOX6Now.com. June 20, 2018. Retrieved July 1, 2018.
- ^ Glauber, Bill (August 22, 2018). "Selection committee for 2020 Democratic Convention will visit Milwaukee next week". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved August 24, 2018.
- ^ Haberman, Maggie (November 4, 2019). "Trump, Lifelong New Yorker, Declares Himself a Resident of Florida". The New York Times.
- ^ Nagourney, Adam; Goldmacher, Shane; Thrush, Glenn (November 4, 2020). "Big gains among Latinos in the Miami area power Trump to victory in Florida". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
- ^ "Florida Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
- ^ "Florida 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
- ^ "March 17, 2020 Primary Election". Florida Department of State. Florida Division of Elections. March 31, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
- ^ "Florida Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved March 11, 2020.
- ^ Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
- ^ Zhou, Li (January 21, 2019). "Kamala Harris announces her historic 2020 presidential campaign". Vox. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
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- ^ "First Democratic Debate 2019: Highlights, candidates and more". NBC News.
- ^ "March 17, 2020 Primary Election: Democratic Primary". Florida Department of State Division of Elections. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
- ^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved March 20, 2020.
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- ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
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- ^ 270 to Win
- ^ Real Clear Politics
- ^ FiveThirtyEight
- ^ Insider Advantage/Fox 35
- ^ Trafalgar Group
- ^ a b c d e f SurveyMonkey/Axios
- ^ AYTM/Aspiration
- ^ Change Research/CNBC
- ^ "Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on November 30, 2020. Retrieved November 1, 2020.
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Data for Progress
- ^ Ipsos/Reuters
- ^ Frederick Polls/Compete Everywhere
- ^ Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Siena College/NYT Upshot
- ^ a b c Morning Consult
- ^ St. Pete Polls
- ^ "RMG Research/PoliticalIQ". Archived from the original on November 30, 2020. Retrieved November 1, 2020.
- ^ Targoz Market Research/PollSmart
- ^ AtlasIntel
- ^ Public Policy Polling/Climate Power 2020
- ^ Harvard-Harris/The Hill
- ^ ABC/Washington Post
- ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
- ^ Trafalgar Group
- ^ Monmouth University
- ^ Marist College/NBC
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ Ipsos/Reuters
- ^ Swayable
- ^ YouGov/Institute of Politics at Florida State University
- ^ "Wick Surveys". Archived from the original on December 3, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
- ^ Florida Atlantic University
- ^ "Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on November 30, 2020. Retrieved October 27, 2020.
- ^ Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research
- ^ Ryan Tyson (R)
- ^ Gravis Marketing
- ^ YouGov/CBS
- ^ St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics
- ^ "RMG Research/PoliticalIQ". Archived from the original on November 30, 2020. Retrieved October 26, 2020.
- ^ Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Ipsos/Reuters
- ^ Citizen Data
- ^ Civiqs/Daily Kos
- ^ "CNN/SSRS" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on November 30, 2020. Retrieved October 22, 2020.
- ^ Change Research/CNBC
- ^ "University of North Florida" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on November 30, 2020. Retrieved October 20, 2020.
- ^ HarrisX/The Hill
- ^ Ipsos/Reuters
- ^ Trafalgar Group
- ^ a b Redfield & Wilton Strategies
- ^ St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Mason-Dixon
- ^ Clearview Research
- ^ Florida Atlantic University
- ^ "RMG Research/PoliticalIQ". Archived from the original on November 27, 2020. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
- ^ Insider Advantage/Hannity Exclusive (R)
- ^ YouGov/CCES Archived November 1, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Ipsos/Reuters
- ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ Change Research/CNBC
- ^ Suffolk University/USA Today
- ^ a b "University of North Florida" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on November 30, 2020. Retrieved October 6, 2020.
- ^ a b St. Leo University
- ^ Siena College/NYT Upshot
- ^ Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce
- ^ Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness
- ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
- ^ St. Pete Polls
- ^ Data For Progress
- ^ Change Research/CNBC
- ^ ABC/Washington Post
- ^ Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign
- ^ YouGov/CBS
- ^ Ipsos/Reuters
- ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
- ^ Monmouth University
- ^ Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report
- ^ Florida Atlantic University
- ^ St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics/AARP
- ^ Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group/AARP
- ^ Morning Consult
- ^ Change Research/CNBC
- ^ Marist College/NBC
- ^ Trafalgar Group
- ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
- ^ GQR Research (D)
- ^ Quinnipiac Archived September 3, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ a b Morning Consult
- ^ Opinium/The Guardian
- ^ Change Research/CNBC
- ^ PPP
- ^ Redfield and Wilton Strategies
- ^ Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance
- ^ Change Research/CNBC
- ^ OnMessage Inc./Heritage Action
- ^ Change Research/CNBC
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j Morning Consult
- ^ CNN/SSRS
- ^ Zogby Analytics
- ^ Mason-Dixon
- ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ Florida Politics/AARP Florida/St. Pete Polls
- ^ Gravis Marketing
- ^ Change Research/CNBC
- ^ YouGov/CBS
- ^ Trafalgar Group
- ^ Change Research/CNBC
- ^ Fox News
- ^ Siena College/NYT Upshot
- ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
- ^ Change Research/CNBC
- ^ Gravis Marketing/OANN
- ^ TIPP/American Greatness PAC Archived June 16, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Change Research/CNBC
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ St. Pete Polls
- ^ a b Point Blank Political
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- ^ Fox News
- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ St. Pete Polls
- ^ "University of North Florida" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on April 6, 2020. Retrieved April 6, 2020.
- ^ a b AtlasIntel
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- ^ a b c d e f Saint Leo University
- ^ a b c d e f "University of North Florida" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on February 24, 2020. Retrieved February 24, 2020.
- ^ a b c d Florida Atlantic University
- ^ a b c d Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce
- ^ a b c d Mason-Dixon
- ^ a b c Siena College/NYT Upshot
- ^ a b c d e f University of North Florida
- ^ a b c d Florida Atlantic University
- ^ a b c d e f Quinnipiac University
- ^ St. Pete Polls
- ^ a b c d e Florida Atlantic University
- ^ WPA Intelligence
- ^ Zogby Analytics
- ^ Dixie Strategies
- ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
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- ^ Quinnipiac University
- ^ "November 3, 2020 General Election Official Results". Florida Department of State. November 17, 2020. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
- ^ Nir, David (November 19, 2020). "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012". Daily Kos. Retrieved December 10, 2020.
- ^ "Florida Presidential Election Voting History".
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- ^ "The Political Graveyard: Seminole County, Fla". politicalgraveyard.com. Retrieved November 20, 2020.
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- ^ Mazzei, Patricia (September 11, 2020). "Court Ruling Deals Blow to Ex-Felons' Voting Rights in Florida". The New York Times.
- ^ Viteri, Amy; Torres, Andrea (November 6, 2020). "Presidential election: Here is why eastern Miami-Dade is celebrating and western Miami-Dade is not". Local 10 Miami. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
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- ^ Smiley, David (September 21, 2020). "Why some Cuban-Americans in Florida are supporting Biden over Trump". Tampa Bay Times. Retrieved October 20, 2020.
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Further reading
[edit]- David Weigel; Lauren Tierney (August 30, 2020), "The six political states of Florida", Washingtonpost.com, archived from the original on September 7, 2020, retrieved September 7, 2020
- Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington, D.C.: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020,
Florida
- Nick Corasaniti; Stephanie Saul; Patricia Mazzei (September 13, 2020), "Big Voting Decisions in Florida, Wisconsin, Texas: What They Mean for November", The New York Times, archived from the original on September 13, 2020,
Both parties are waging legal battles around the country over who gets to vote and how
- Jonathan Martin; Patricia Mazzei (September 14, 2020), "A Tight Trump-Biden Race in Florida: Here's the State of Play", The New York Times, archived from the original on September 14, 2020
- David Wasserman (October 6, 2020), "The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble", The New York Times. (describes bellwether Pinellas County, Florida)
Videos:
- "Conservative Cubans, Venezuelans in Miami on why they voted for Trump". The Washington Post. November 4, 2020. Archived from the original on November 14, 2021.
External links
[edit]- Florida Elections Commission government website
- "League of Women Voters of Florida". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Florida at Ballotpedia
- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Florida", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Florida: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA