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2022 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico

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2022 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico

← 2020 November 8, 2022 2024 →

All 3 New Mexico seats to the United States House of Representatives
  Majority party Minority party
 
Party Democratic Republican
Last election 2 1
Seats won 3 0
Seat change Increase 1 Decrease 1
Popular vote 387,716 316,352
Percentage 55.06% 44.93%
Swing Increase 0.20% Decrease 0.19%

The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico were held on November 8, 2022, to elect the three U.S. representatives from the state of New Mexico, one from each of the state's three congressional districts. The elections coincided with the New Mexico gubernatorial election and various state and local elections. The Democratic party gained the 2nd Congressional seat, gaining unitary control of New Mexico's Congressional (House and Senate) delegation for the first time since 2018 and improving the advantage in the House delegation for New Mexico from 2–1 in favor of Democrats to 3–0.

Redistricting

[edit]

Process

[edit]

In New Mexico, legislative and congressional maps must be passed by the state legislature and are subject to a veto by the governor, which would require a two-thirds supermajority in each house of the legislature to override. In April 2021, governor Michelle Lujan Grisham signed a bill passed by the legislature that established the seven-member New Mexico Citizen Redistricting Committee. The job of the committee is to draw three sets of legislative and congressional maps, which it then sends to the legislature for consideration. Current public officials and government employees are barred from serving on the committee. The committee's role is purely advisory and the legislature is free to alter or discard its proposals.[1]

On October 15, 2021, the redistricting committee voted to send 3 congressional maps to the legislature. The first would largely maintain the boundaries of the state's existing map. The second would increase Native American representation in the 3rd congressional district to nearly 20% and Hispanic representation in the 2nd district to 54%. This proposal was championed by the committee's chairman Edward Chávez, former Chief Justice of the New Mexico Supreme Court. The third, drawn by the Center for Civic Policy, would add liberal areas of the city of Albuquerque to the rural 2nd district.[2]

Targeting of the 2nd district

[edit]

In the leadup to the 2020 redistricting cycle, some suspected that the Democratic-controlled state legislature might alter the boundaries of the 2nd congressional district to make it more favorable to the Democratic Party. The 2nd district was represented by Democrat Xochitl Torres Small after she defeated Republican Yvette Herrell in the 2018 midterm elections, but she lost to Herrell in a 2020 rematch. The day after Herrell's victory, Democrat Brian Egolf, the Speaker of the New Mexico House of Representatives, pointed out that the 2nd district would inevitably be changed during redistricting and said "we'll have to see what that means for Republican chances to hold it." This statement was criticized by Steve Pearce, the chair of the New Mexico Republican Party, who called it "political tricks."[3]

The district is mostly rural and dominated by the oil and natural gas industry. Carlsbad mayor Dale Janway expressed concern that portions of the Albuquerque suburbs might be added to the district, which would dilute the influence of the rural communities in the district, including Carlsbad.[4] After the 2020 elections, the district held a Partisan Voting Index of R+8.[5]

Legislature's map

[edit]

On December 10, the New Mexico Senate voted 25–15 to approve a congressional map drawn by Democratic state senator Joseph Cervantes. This proposal largely resembles the third map submitted by the commission, adding portions of western and southern Albuquerque to the 2nd district and moving a portion of the conservative-leaning, oil-producing area of the 2nd district into the 3rd district. These changes would increase the Hispanic majority in the 2nd district from 51% to 56% and decrease the percentage of Native Americans in the 3rd district from 20% to 16%. Republicans widely opposed the map, with GOP state senator David Gallegos pointing out that the map combines the conservative oilfield town of Hobbs with heavily Democratic Santa Fe, which is hundreds of miles away, and GOP senator Cliff Pirtle claiming that the map represented an attempt by Democrats to control all 3 of New Mexico's House seats. Cervantes defended his map, saying he wished to "reimagine a New Mexico where our districts include rural and urban areas."[6][7][8][9] The New Mexico House of Representatives passed the map on December 12 in a 44–24 vote, and governor Lujan Grisham approved it on December 17.[10][11]

Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report interpreted the new map as an attempt by Democrats to target Herrell while still protecting the representative of the 3rd district, Democrat Teresa Leger Fernandez. Under the new map, in the 2020 presidential election, Democrat Joe Biden would have won the 1st district by 14.5%, the 2nd by under 6%, and the 3rd by roughly 11%.[12] Under the previous map, Biden won the first district by 22.8% and the 3rd district by 17.6%, and lost the 2nd district to Republican Donald Trump by 11.8%.[13]

District 1

[edit]
2022 New Mexico's 1st congressional district election

 
Nominee Melanie Stansbury Michelle Garcia Holmes
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 156,458 124,150
Percentage 55.7% 44.2%

County results
Stansbury:      50–60%      60–70%
Garcia Holmes:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
     80–90%

Precinct results
Stansbury:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Garcia Holmes:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      50%

U.S. Representative before election

Melanie Stansbury
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Melanie Stansbury
Democratic

The 1st district covers the center of the state, taking in the counties of Torrance, Guadalupe, De Baca, and Lincoln, as well as eastern Bernalillo County and most of Albuquerque.[14] Democrat Deb Haaland, who was re-elected with 58.2% of the vote in 2020,[15] resigned on March 16, 2021, after she was confirmed to become the U.S. Secretary of the Interior.[16] Democrat Melanie Stansbury won the June 1, 2021 special election to finish her term with 60.4% of the vote.[17]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[27]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Melanie Stansbury (incumbent) 44,223 100.0
Total votes 44,223 100.0

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]
  • Louie Sanchez, small business owner [18]
Disqualified
[edit]
  • Joshua Neal, city planner[18]
  • Jacquelyn Reeve, nurse practitioner[18]

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results[27]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Michelle Garcia Holmes 25,822 58.7
Republican Louie Sanchez 18,171 41.3
Total votes 43,993 100.0

General election

[edit]

Debates and forums

[edit]
2022 New Mexico's 1st congressional district general election debates and forums
No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee W  Withdrawn
Garcia Holmes Stansbury
1[28] October 14, 2022 KOB 4 Tessa Mentus & Matt Grubs [29] P P

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[30] Solid D April 27, 2022
Inside Elections[31] Solid D April 22, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[32] Likely D April 27, 2022
Politico[33] Likely D April 18, 2022
RCP[34] Lean D October 30, 2022
Fox News[35] Likely D July 11, 2022
DDHQ[36] Likely D July 20, 2022
538[37] Solid D June 30, 2022
The Economist[38] Likely D September 28, 2022

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Melanie
Stansbury (D)
Michelle Garcia
Holmes (R)
Other Undecided
Emerson College[39] October 25–28, 2022 372 (LV) ± 5.0% 50% 40% 2%[b] 8%
54% 43% 3%[c]
Research & Polling Inc.[40] October 20–27, 2022 410 (LV) ± 4.8% 48% 42% 9%

Results

[edit]
2022 New Mexico's 1st congressional district election[41]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Melanie Stansbury (incumbent) 156,462 55.8
Republican Michelle Garcia Holmes 124,151 44.2
Independent Victoria Gonzales (write-in) 58 0.0
Total votes 280,671 100.0
Democratic hold

District 2

[edit]
2022 New Mexico's 2nd congressional district election

← 2020
2024 →
 
Nominee Gabe Vasquez Yvette Herrell
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 96,980 95,638
Percentage 50.3% 49.6%

County results
Herrell:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80-90%      ≥90%
Vasquez:      50–60%      60–70%      70-80%      80-90%      ≥90%
Tie      50%

U.S. Representative before election

Yvette Herrell
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Gabe Vasquez
Democratic

The 2nd district encapsulates southern and western New Mexico, including the cities of Las Cruces, Carlsbad, and Alamogordo, as well as the southwestern suburbs of Albuquerque.[14] The incumbent was Republican Yvette Herrell, who had flipped back the district from Xochitl Torres Small (who had in turn narrowly defeated her for the seat in a race to replace a Republican incumbent in 2018) with 53.7% of the vote in 2020.[15] The new 2022-2032 lines for the district made it more competitive for Democrats, with Vasquez defeating Herrell in a narrow race that was too close to call until the next afternoon.[42]

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results[27]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Yvette Herrell (incumbent) 28,623 100.0
Total votes 28,623 100.0

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]
  • Darshan Patel, physician[18]
Declined
[edit]

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[27]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Gabe Vasquez 24,010 76.1
Democratic Darshan Patel 7,534 23.9
Total votes 31,544 100.0

General election

[edit]

Debate

[edit]
2022 New Mexico's 2nd congressional district debate
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Democratic
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Yvette Herrell Gabe Vasquez
1 Oct. 21, 2022 KOB (TV) Matt Grubs
Tessa Mentus
[47] P P

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[30] Tossup April 27, 2022
Inside Elections[31] Tossup April 22, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[32] Lean R October 26, 2022
Politico[33] Tossup April 18, 2022
RCP[34] Lean R June 9, 2022
Fox News[35] Tossup August 22, 2022
DDHQ[36] Likely R November 1, 2022
538[37] Likely R November 1, 2022
The Economist[38] Tossup September 28, 2022

Endorsements

[edit]
Yvette Herrell (R)
Gabe Vasquez (D)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Individuals

State legislators

Organizations

Labor unions

Newspapers

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Yvette
Herrell (R)
Gabe
Vasquez (D)
Undecided
[d]
Margin
FiveThirtyEight[62] July 19 – October 28, 2022 October 31, 2022 49.4% 45.3% 5.3% Herrell +4.1

Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Yvette
Herrell (R)
Gabe
Vasquez (D)
Other Undecided
Emerson College[39] October 25–28, 2022 302 (LV) ± 5.6% 54% 41% 1%[e] 4%
54% 44% 2%[f]
Research & Polling Inc.[40] October 20–27, 2022 410 (LV) ± 4.8% 45% 47% 8%
Siena College/New York Times[63] October 20–24, 2022 398 (LV) ± 5.5% 47% 48% 5%
Global Strategy Group (D)[64][A] September 20–26, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 45% 12%
Global Strategy Group (D)[65][A] July 19–25, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 45% 11%
Hypothetical polling

Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
GBAO (D)[66][B] October 9, 2022 46% 49% 5%

Results

[edit]
2022 New Mexico's 2nd congressional district election[41]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Gabe Vasquez 96,986 50.3
Republican Yvette Herrell (incumbent) 95,636 49.6
Democratic Eliseo Luna (write-in) 51 0.0
Total votes 192,673 100.0
Democratic gain from Republican

District 3

[edit]
2022 New Mexico's 3rd congressional district election

← 2020
2024 →
 
Nominee Teresa Leger Fernandez Alexis Martinez Johnson
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 134,220 96,565
Percentage 58.2% 41.8%

County results
Leger Fernandez:      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Martinez Johnson:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
     80–90%

Precinct results
Leger Fernandez:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Martinez Johnson:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
     No votes

U.S. Representative before election

Teresa Leger Fernandez
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Teresa Leger Fernandez
Democratic

The 3rd district covers the northern and eastern parts of the state, taking in the cities of Santa Fe, Roswell, Farmington, and Clovis, as well as parts of the Navajo Nation.[14] The incumbent was Democrat Teresa Leger Fernandez, who was elected with 58.7% of the vote in 2020.[15]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[27]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Teresa Leger Fernandez (incumbent) 46,940 100.0
Total votes 46,940 100.0

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
  • Alexis Martinez Johnson, environmental engineer, rancher, and nominee for this district in 2020[67]
Disqualified
[edit]
  • Jerald Steve McFall, farmer[18]

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results[27]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Alexis Martinez Johnson 28,729 100.0
Total votes 28,729 100.0

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[30] Likely D April 27, 2022
Inside Elections[31] Solid D August 25, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[32] Likely D April 27, 2022
Politico[33] Lean D April 18, 2022
RCP[34] Lean D November 1, 2022
Fox News[35] Likely D July 11, 2022
DDHQ[36] Likely D July 20, 2022
538[37] Solid D September 30, 2022
The Economist[38] Safe D November 7, 2022

Endorsements

[edit]
Alexis Martinez Johnson (R)

Organizations

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Teresa Leger
Fernandez (D)
Alexis Martinez
Johnson (R)
Other Undecided
Emerson College[39] October 25–28, 2022 326 (LV) ± 5.4% 53% 40% 1%[g] 7%
58% 40% 1%[h]
Research & Polling Inc.[40] October 20–27, 2022 410 (LV) ± 4.8% 53% 35% 10%

Results

[edit]
2022 New Mexico's 3rd congressional district election[41]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Teresa Leger Fernandez (incumbent) 134,217 58.2
Republican Alexis Martinez Johnson 96,565 41.8
Total votes 230,782 100.0
Democratic hold

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c d Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  3. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  4. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  6. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  7. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  8. ^ "Someone else" with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Vasquez's campaign
  2. ^ This poll was sponsored by the House Majority PAC

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Redistricting in New Mexico after the 2020 census". Ballotpedia.
  2. ^ "Advisory panel endorses redistricting maps for New Mexico". AP NEWS. October 15, 2021.
  3. ^ Bryan, Susan Montoya. "New Mexico Dems plan to redraw 2nd Congressional district". Las Cruces Sun-News.
  4. ^ Janway, Dale. "City of Carlsbad: Understanding the redistricting process". Carlsbad Current-Argus.
  5. ^ "Introducing the 2021 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index". Cook Political Report. April 15, 2021.
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  13. ^ "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012". Daily Kos.
  14. ^ a b c "Redistricting Maps and Data - Final Version". New Mexico Legislature. December 10, 2021. Retrieved May 3, 2022.
  15. ^ a b c Johnson, Cheryl L. (February 28, 2019). "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 3, 2020". Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives.
  16. ^ "Haaland officially bids farewell to U.S. House". Albuquerque Journal. March 16, 2021. Archived from the original on June 4, 2021. Retrieved October 6, 2021.
  17. ^ Gowins, Max (June 1, 2021). "Election Results: New Mexico 1st Congressional District Special Election". Decision Desk HQ. Retrieved June 15, 2021.
  18. ^ a b c d e f g h i j McKay, Dan (February 1, 2022). "5 Republicans seek nomination to challenge Lujan Grisham". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved February 1, 2022.
  19. ^ "Endorsements | Warren Democrats". elizabethwarren.com. Archived from the original on January 7, 2021. Retrieved April 20, 2022.
  20. ^ a b "Endorsements - NARAL Pro-Choice America". NARAL Pro-Choice America.
  21. ^ a b Turrentine, Jeff (March 8, 2022). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses These Candidates in the 2022 Elections". Natural Resources Defense Council. Retrieved March 15, 2022.
  22. ^ a b "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved December 22, 2021.
  23. ^ a b c "Sierra Club Endorsements". March 19, 2021.
  24. ^ a b c Clark, Carol (April 19, 2022). "American Federation Of Teachers New Mexico Announces Endorsements For NM Federal Offices". Los Alamos Daily Post.
  25. ^ a b "Our Recommended Candidates". educationvotes.nea.org. National Education Association.
  26. ^ a b c "Editorial: Journal kicks off fall endorsements with races for Congress". Albuquerque Journal. October 16, 2022. Retrieved October 17, 2022.
  27. ^ a b c d e f "U.S. Representative primaries official results". Secretary of State of New Mexico. Retrieved September 12, 2022.
  28. ^ "KOB 4 hosts CD-1 debate between Stansbury, Garcia Holmes". www.kob.com. October 14, 2022. Retrieved October 16, 2022.
  29. ^ YouTube
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  33. ^ a b c "2022 Election Forecast". Politico. April 5, 2022.
  34. ^ a b c "Battle for the House 2022". RCP. June 9, 2022.
  35. ^ a b c "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. July 11, 2022. Retrieved July 11, 2022.
  36. ^ a b c "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. July 20, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
  37. ^ a b c "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
  38. ^ a b c "The Economist's 2022 House Election forecast". The Economist. Retrieved September 28, 2022.
  39. ^ a b c Emerson College
  40. ^ a b c Research & Polling Inc.
  41. ^ a b c "2022 General New Mexico - Official Results". New Mexico Secretary of State.
  42. ^ Duerrmeyer, Tia. "Democrats Make a Clean Sweep in New Mexico". Lea County Tribune. Archived from the original on November 10, 2022. Retrieved October 6, 2023.
  43. ^ Boyd, Dan (September 15, 2021). "Cruces councilor to announce bid for 2nd CD seat". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved September 15, 2021.
  44. ^ a b c Simonich, Milan (July 10, 2021). "MLG now more vulnerable than rookie congresswoman". www.santafenewmexican.com. The Santa Fe New Mexican. Retrieved November 26, 2021.
  45. ^ Seibel, Nickolas (October 5, 2021). "Sought-after Correa Hemphill to stick with Senate". Silver City Daily Press. Retrieved October 6, 2021.
  46. ^ a b c d Clark, Chris (December 17, 2021). "Rep. Leger Fernandez Endorses Former Los Alamos Newspaper Intern Gabe Vasquez For Congress In NM-02". www.ladailypost.com. Los Alamos Daily Post. Retrieved December 17, 2021.
  47. ^ YouTube
  48. ^ Perez, Brianna (October 3, 2022). "Senator Ted Cruz in Las Cruces for rally with Congresswoman Yvette Herrell Monday". KVIA-TV. Archived from the original on October 20, 2022.
  49. ^ "DeSantis heads to battleground states to boost Trump-backed candidates". August 8, 2022.
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  51. ^ D'Ammassa, Algernon (September 27, 2022). "Fact check: False claim that Gabe Vasquez gave fake identity for Black Lives Matter interview". Las Cruces Sun-News. Archived from the original on September 27, 2022.
  52. ^ "FreedomWorks for America Endorses Rep. Yvette Herrell for Re-Election in New Mexico's Second Congressional District". www.freedomworksforamerica.org. September 15, 2021. Retrieved January 10, 2022.
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  54. ^ "2022 Candidates". www.maggieslist.org. Retrieved January 2, 2021.
  55. ^ Steinhauser, Paul (March 16, 2022). "Sen. Ron Johnson tops list of Republicans endorsed by top Jewish GOP organization". www.foxnews.com. Fox News. Retrieved March 22, 2022.
  56. ^ "ELECTION ALERT: Tea Party Express Endorses Yvette Herrell in New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District". Tea Party Express. July 13, 2022. Retrieved August 23, 2022.
  57. ^ "Remarks by President Biden at a Rally for the Democratic Party". November 4, 2022.
  58. ^ "Órale! George Lopez returns to las Cruces with comedy tour".
  59. ^ Bernal, Rafael (February 24, 2022). "Hispanic Democrats roll out trio of House endorsements". The Hill.
  60. ^ "LCV Action Fund Endorses Gabe Vasquez for Congress". www.lcv.org. March 9, 2022.
  61. ^ "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Six Candidates for Election to the U.S. House in Four Key States". NARAL Pro-Choice America. July 19, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
  62. ^ FiveThirtyEight
  63. ^ Siena College/New York Times
  64. ^ Global Strategy Group (D)
  65. ^ Global Strategy Group (D)
  66. ^ GBAO (D)
  67. ^ Chacón, Daniel (January 3, 2022). "Martinez Johnson launches campaign for CD3". The Santa Fe New Mexican. Retrieved January 4, 2022.
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[edit]

Official campaign websites for 1st district candidates

Official campaign websites for 2nd district candidates

Official campaign websites for 3rd district candidates