Draft:Earth4All

Earth4All is an international initiative exploring how to meet the basic needs of all people within the planetary boundaries before the end of the 21st century.

Launched in 2022, it is convened by The Club of Rome, the BI Norwegian Business School, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, and the Stockholm Resilience Centre.

The initiative draws on scientific modelling and policy prescriptions produced for the book "Earth for All: A Survival Guide for Humanity," a report to the Club of Romewhich argues for rapid economic systems change in order to ensure human and planetary wellbeing. It its findings, it sets out what the authors claim are the minimum actions humanity needs to take now – 5 extraordinary turnarounds for poverty, inequality, empowerment, food and energy – to achieve wellbeing for all within planetary boundaries.

The research

The research behind Earth4All builds on the legacies of The Limits to Growth and the Planetary Boundaries frameworks and takes a systemic approach, focusing on the links between the economy, society and the environment. It is based on computer simulation models, produced by a system dynamics modelling team, used to show how used to show how different policies are likely to affect human wellbeing, societies and ecosystems in the short and long term. It also draws on new economic thinking from a diverse group of economic thinkers, the Transformational Economics Commission (TEC). It is rooted in systems thinking, a branch of science that seeks to understand complexity, feedback loops, tipping points and exponential impacts.

Systems dynamic modelling

The model used for the modelling work behind Earth4All is based on the World4 computer simulation model. It is an updated version of the World3 model, used to produce the Limits to Growth'' report.

The Earth4All model integrates variables produced with data from past decades. The models do not predict the future, but rather the probabilities of developments that will occur depending on the different actions we take today as a society.

There is an open-source global model and a more complex model that captures developments in 10 different world regions and their interactions.

A team of researchers from Stockholm Resilience Centre, the BI Norwegian Business School and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research were responsible for the system dynamic models, the data synthesis and the analyses, including:

Jorgen Randers, Ulrich Golüke, David Collste, Sarah Mashhadi, Sarah Cornell, Per Espen Stoknes, Jonathan Donges, Dieter Gerten, Jannes Breier, Luana Schwarz, Ben Callegari and Johan Rockström.

The Earth4All 21st Transformational Economics Commission (TEC)

The TEC is composed of leading scientists, economic thinkers and thought leaders from different disciplines and regions of the world. They chose economic concepts and economic policies whose long-term effects were then tested by the system dynamics computer simulation models. The TEC also stress-tested the outcomes of the model. Some members of the TEC contributed to writing the book.

The TEC includes individuals such as:

• Anders Wijkman (Member of the Club of Rome, Member of the Swedish Royal Academy of Sciences, Former Member of the European Parliament, Assistant Secretary General of the United Nations)
• Hunter Lovins (Professor of Economics, Lawyer, Sociologist and Political Scientist, Founder of the organization Natural Capitalism Solutions)
• Mamphela Ramphele (Former co-president of the Club of Rome, South African doctor, former politician and businesswoman)
• Ken Webster (Leading expert on circular economy)
• Nafeez Ahmed (research on systematic conditions of large-scale violence, genocide studies )
• Lewis Akenji (work focus on sustainable production and consumption)
• Sharan Burrow (focus on women's participation and workers' rights)
• Robert Costanza (Professor of Ecological Economics)
• Emmanuel Faber (Chair of the International Sustainability Standards Board )
• Lorenzo Fioramonti (university lecturer, former Minister of Education in Italy, research focus on social inequality)
• Eduardo Gudynas (biologist, environmental justice research)
• Andrew Haines (Prof. of Public Health)
• Gaya Herrington (economist)
• Garry Jacobs (CEO World Academy of Art & Science, CEO World University Consortium)
• Jane Kabubo-Mariara (economist from Kenya, focus on sustainability, education, empowerment of women and economic development in Africa)
• David Korten (economist, founded the People-Centered Development Forum)
• Nigel Lake (business and policy consultancy, co-founder of ESGX)
• Masse Lo (CEO of the Institute of Leadership for Development, expert on environment and sustainability development in Senegal ) [14]
• Chandran Nair (CEO of Global Institute For Tomorrow)
• Carlota Perez (developed the concept of techno-economic paradigm shifts and her theory of great surges, a further development of Kondratiev cycles)
• Kate Pickett (health scientist)
• Janez Potočnik (Co-Chair of the United Nations Environment Program International Resource Panel)
• Otto Scharmer (Chair of the MIT IDEAS Cross-Industry Innovation Program)
• Stewart Wallis (Director of the Wellbeing Alliance - WeAll)
• Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker (environmental scientist and politician, former co-president of the Club of Rome)
• Richard Wilkinson (economist and public health scientist)

The book

The research was published in a book called Earth for All: A Survival Guide for Humanity in September 2022. It is available in multiple languages including Chinese, English, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean and Swedish.

The book was co-written by:

• Sandrine Dixson-Declève (Earth4All co-lead, Energy Policy Expert, Co-President of the Club of Rome)
• Owen Gaffney (Earth4All co-lead, sustainability research, transformation processes, co-founder of the Future Earth Media Lab)
• Jayati Ghosh (Indian economist, specializations: global economy, work patterns in low-income countries, macroeconomics and gender)
• Jorgen Randers (university teacher, futurologist, climate researcher, scenario technology and system dynamics)
• Johan Rockström (socio-ecological resilience researcher, special fields: agricultural science, soil science, hydrology, global material cycles, planetary boundaries, climate impact research)
• Per Espen Stoknes (Earth4All co-lead, environmental psychology, business psychology, climate and environmental strategies, energy systems)

Deep-dive papers

Deep-dive papers are being published as part of the Earth4All research to further develop specific focus areas . So far, these have been written by Nafeez Ahmed, Shouvik Chakraborty, Anuar Sucar Diaz Ceballos, Debamanyu Das, Jayati Ghosh, Gaya Herrington, Adrina Adiba, Nigel Lake, Masse Lô, Chandran Nair, Rebecca Nohl, Sanna O'Connor, Julia Okatz, Kate Pickett, Janez Potočnik, Mamphela Ramphele, Otto Scharmer, Anders Wijkman, Richard Wilkinson, Jorgen Randers and Ken Webster.

The content

The two scenarios

Various scenarios can be modelled with the Earth4All system dynamics model. The authors chose to highlight two scenarios and analyse them in greater detail in the book: "Too Little, Too Late" and "Giant Leap".

Too little, too late

The Too little, too late scenario reflects the current trajectory of humanity, also known as business as usual. In this scenario, governments around the world advance incrementally. They fail to take strong collective action. Rich populations get richer, and the poorest fall further behind, exacerbating inequalities and social tensions. This makes it increasingly harder to address climate and ecological risks. Global temperature increase reaches 2.5°C by 2100 putting the stability of the earth system at risk. Wellbeing declines globally, and it takes until 2100 to eradicate extreme poverty.

Giant Leap

On the other hand, the Giant Leap scenario analyses what would happen if humanity took transformative action now. It shows that by enacting five extraordinary turnarounds, it is possible to stabilise temperatures below 2°C, maintain the world population below 9 billion people, reduce material use, and end extreme poverty by 2050. In this scenario, social tension falls, inequality is reduced, and wellbeing rises. Three recommendations are given for each turnaround: the first is possible in the existing system, the second is already more far-reaching, and the third can only be implemented through a fundamental paradigm shift.

The five extraordinary turnarounds

Earth4All recommends governments enact five extraordinary turnarounds, arguing these are the “minimum requirements that support wellbeing for all, whilst protecting the planet” . Each turnaround includes three main policy changes. The Earth4All extraordinary turnarounds present crucial leverage points for an economic system shift aiming to increase the wellbeing of the majority rather than Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The five extraordinary turnarounds are:

1. Ending poverty through reform of the international financial system, lifting 3-4 billion people out of poverty
3. Addressing gross inequality by ensuring that the wealthiest 10% take no more than 40% of national incomes
5. Empowering women to achieve full gender equity by 2050
7. Transforming the food system to provide healthy diets for people and planet
9. Transitioning to clean energy to reach net zero emissions by 2050

Ending poverty

This turnaround seeks to end extreme poverty in low-income countries. Its main goal is a GDP per person of at least US$15,000 per year. The three policy recommendations are:

1) The International Monetary Fund should create $1 trillion in new “Special drawing rights” annually and allocate additional funds from unused Special drawing rights to low-income countries (countries whose incomes <$10,000 per person) for green job creation.

2) High-income countries and the World Trade Organization (WTO) should enable local protection of young industries and promote sustained expansion of exports in low-income countries. The WTO should allow the renunciation of intellectual property rights for patented technologies necessary for public health and the energy transition.

3) High-income countries should cancel the debt of low-income countries and create a viable debt-cancellation regime for all debt-ridden middle- and low-income countries.

The third point has been met with strong resistance from creditors.

Reducing inequality

In most regions of the world, inequality has increased over the last decades. In many places, the richest 10% control up to 50% of the national income. This is a recipe for deeply dysfunctional and polarized societies.

The aim of this turnaround is to reduce inequality between and within countries, with the richest 10% receiving no more than 40% of national income.

The three policy recommendations to reduce inequality are:

1) Greater progressive taxation for individuals and large corporations, and closing international loopholes, are absolutely essential to tackling destabilizing inequality and excessive carbon and biosphere consumption.

2) Workers must be empowered. Governments should legislate to strengthen workers' and trade union rights. In a time of great change, workers need both protection and the opportunity to develop new skills.

3) Governments should establish citizen funds to give all citizens their fair share of national wealth and global commons in the form of a universal basic dividend.

Citizen funds mean that every person receives a basic dividend for the global commons. For example, companies pay for greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation or resource consumption. The money is then distributed equally to everyone. This principle would also reduce all types of environmental pollution and prevent the overexploitation of nature, such as overfishing of the seas.

Empowering women

This turnaround is about tackling injustices towards women and girls. The aim is complete gender equality in terms of ability to act, rights, resources and power in law and work.

The goal is gender equity throughout the world in terms of representation, rights, resources and power in law and employment.

The three policy recommendations are:

1) All governments ensure the rights of women and girls to education.

2) All companies and public bodies achieve gender parity in leadership positions.

3) All governments guarantee universal social protection and introduce adequate universal pension schemes.

When it comes to gender equality, men and religions are relevant obstacles.

Transforming the food system

The goal is a sustainable food system for all and within planetary boundaries. All people must access to healthy foods and at the same time biodiversity must be preserved and nature protected.

The policy recommendations are:

1) At least half of arable land should be converted to regenerative and sustainable agriculture by 2030. Nonsensical subsidies, trade and procurement practices are to be abolished.

2) Technologies for healthier soils and more sustainable and regenerative forms of agriculture should be promoted.

3) Shifting to healthy diets that respect planetary boundaries and are accessible to all.

Obstacles here are the particular interests of companies and people who benefit from the status quo.

Transitioning to clean energy

The main goal is net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

The policy recommendations are:

1) Immediately abolish fossil fuel-based energy systems and their subsidies and redirect funding towards clean and efficient energy solutions.

2) “Electrify everything” and improve efficiency. At the same time, this should save energy, reduce the consumption of resources and reduce air pollution .

3) Investments in renewable energy with storage capacity and associated infrastructure are to be tripled to over USD 1 trillion per year. All governments should ensure access to clean energy and protect the most vulnerable from energy poverty.

The fossil fuel lobby is a major obstacle here.

Population projections

Earth4All has drawn particular interest. for its model’s projections on the global population, published in a report in 2023. The model suggests that the world’s population will peak earlier than predicted by previous studies, reaching a high of 8.8 billion in the middle of the 21st century then declining rapidly. The authors suggest that if the world follows the “Giant Leap” policy prescriptions, global population could peak even lower, at 8.5 billion people by the middle of the century.

The study also analysed the connection between population and exceeding planetary boundaries. It found that population size is not the prime driver of exceeding planetary boundaries such as climate change, but rather the high material footprint of the world’s richest 10%.

Necessary transformations of the economic system

The transformations put forward by Earth4All rely on economic systems change. The dominant economic thinking and its underlying model of ever-increasing material production and accumulation of wealth at the top are destabilising societies and the planet. Infinite material growth and a finite planet are simply incompatible. Earth4All argues that the objective of the economic system must move away from GDP and towards qualitative growth and wellbeing for all.

Public campaign 

The initiative primarily offers recommendations to governments of the world to act on the five extraordinary turnarounds and transform the economic system. In addition, it seeks to encourage cooperation between governments, parties, international organizations, corporations, businesses, NGOs and citizens for the transformation in the recommended direction. It also envisions citizen's assemblies as a means of catalysing systems change debate and overcoming polarisation

The campaign has attracted interest from across the media and cultural spectrum, inspiring a documentary by Sky Italia in which Earth4All co-authors and young climate activists meet Pope Francis, an Earth4All-themed tour by the European Youth Orchestra, and an edition of La Reppublica’s Green&Blue festival.

Connections to the wider movement

The Earth4All findings and narrative draw on existing research as well as academic and social movements relating to new economics thinking. For example, its goals coincide with those of doughnut economics, wellbeing economy and the economy for the common good. It connects to the wider movements of post-growth or degrowth thinking, green growth, ecological economics and other movements like participatory democracy with citizens’ assemblies. The initiative also collaborates with the Wellbeing Economy Alliance (WeAll) and its turnarounds largely coincide with the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

Limitations and criticism

The political systems and their problems are not considered, for example dictatorships, wars, and other destructive forces. However, systemic factors that promote violence and social tensions are considered.

The proposed measures in agriculture and the energy sector will not be sufficient to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions. The question also remains as to how the rich and powerful can be persuaded to relinquish their privileges.

Some researchers have criticised aspects of the Earth4All computer model. The project's scientific modelling team offered a paper detailing their responses to the critique, noting that the model was not intended "to forecast the future of the real world with “scientific” precision" but rather, alongside the recommendations of the Transformational Economics Commission, "paint[s] two consistent but contrasting pictures of potential futures with broad pen strokes".