Economic impact of the Israel–Hamas war

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The Israel–Hamas war has significant economic implications, not only for the involved parties but also for the global economy.

Palestine

According to the director of the UN Development Programme (UNDP) Regional Bureau for Arab States, Abdallah Al Dardari the number of Palestinians living in poverty has risen by 300,000 in November 2023. Between October and November 2023 it was reported that the war had cased a 61% drop in employment in Gaza and a 24% drop in the West Bank. The Palestinian GDP was expected to have fallen about 4.2% between the same time, compared with prior estimates with a loss of about $857 million. It was expected the figure to increase to about $1.7 billion if the war continued through December 2023.[1] In March 2024, the International Labour Organization stated unemployment had risen to 57 percent in the first quarter of 2024, with 507,000 job losses in the Palestinian Territories.[2] Gaza experienced a severe financial crisis as a result of Israel's attacks, with access to cash severely limited.[3]

Gaza's infrastructure and economy

Main article: Economy of the Gaza Strip

Poverty in Gaza was already characterized as severe before the war due to the ongoing Israel blockade, with 61% of the population considered below the poverty line according to the World Bank. After only one month of fighting the percentage has increased by about 20% with the number expected to increase to by about 34% in the second month of the war.[1]

The war has caused devastating damage to Gaza's infrastructure and economy.[4] The war has resulted in upheaval and destruction on a scale never before seen in the enclave. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported that over 41,000 homes were destroyed and over 222,000 were damaged.[5] The war also badly affected hospitals, schools, water and sanitation systems, and food security.[4] The UNDP has reported a predicted 11 to 16-year setback in the human development index across Gaza and the West Bank, with the amounts expected to grow during the war.[1]

By the end of December 2023, the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics estimated that the Palestinian economy had lost a total of $1.5 billion USD since the start of the conflict.[6] In February 2024, the World Bank reported that Gaza's economy had shrunk by 80 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023.[7]

Employment in Gaza

The war caused significant job losses in Gaza. As the war reached its one-month mark, 61 percent of employment in Gaza, equivalent to 182,000 jobs, was estimated to have been lost.[8][9]

West Bank

Shortly after the 7 October attacks, Israel had restricted about 100,000 Palestinians laborers living in the West Bank from crossing into Israel for work, per reported security concerns. These cross-border laborers accounted for about $5.5 billion, or about one third of the combined economy of the West Bank and Gaza according to the World Bank.[10] Other Palestinians have also become hesitant to move around due to an increase in Israeli military movement and Israeli settler violence within the West Bank.[11] According to U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, "Blocking West Bank residents from working in Israel, it has a very significant negative effect on incomes in the West Bank."[12] The International Labour Organization has estimated that as of December 2023 about 32% of employment or 276,000 jobs were lost in the West Bank since the start of the war with a loss of $500 million in October and November 2023.[11]

In February 2024, B'Tselem reported that Israel had restricted Palestinians in the West Bank from harvesting their olive trees, stating, "The 2023 harvest was especially important this year as the Palestinian economy is already struggling due to the war in Gaza – particularly because of the prohibition on labourers entering Israel".[13]

The West Bank was also severely impacted by the Israeli decision to withhold the tax revenues.[14] Prior to the outbreak of the war, Israel and the Palestinian Authority had been in dispute over tax money that Israel collects for the West Bank and Gaza, causing the pay of about 143,000 workers to be affected between October and December 2023.[10] The director of the Hebron Reconstruction Committee stated that 80 percent of businesses in Hebron's Old City were closed due to the IDF's curfews and closures.[15]

Israel

The economic toll of the war may cost Israel an estimated $400 billion in lost economic activity over the next decade – threatens Israel's economic future. For Israel, 90% of the economic shock will come from indirect effects: reduced investment, slowing productivity growth and labor market disruption.[16]

Due to Israel suspending Palestinian work permits, it recruited workers from India and Sri Lanka to fill the gaps.[17] In the final quarter of 2023, the Israeli economy shrank by 20% caused due to labour shortages in construction and from the mobilization of 300,000 reservists.[18] While Israel did still see economic growth of 2%, this was down from 6.5% growth in the year before the war. Further consequences of the war were that consumer spending declined 27%, imports declined by 42% and exports were reported to decline by 18%.

Israel's economy experienced a more significant decline than anticipated by market analysts, signifying the largest contraction in nearly four years, as reported by Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics' initial assessment. This downturn can be attributed in part to a decrease in business operations caused by the mobilization of workers for military service and the restriction of entry for Palestinian employees into Israel. Private consumption was the primary factor behind the economic contraction, experiencing a significant decline of 26.9%.[19] Additionally, business investment plummeted by 67.8%, while exports and imports decreased by 18.3% and 42% respectively. However, government spending partially offset these losses by increasing by 88.1%, primarily due to war expenses. According to the statistics office, Israel's economy in 2023 witnessed a modest growth of 2%, but it was lower compared to the previous year's figure of 6.5%.[19]

Israel has committed to covering both direct and indirect damages resulting from the 7 October attack near Ashkelon, where numerous missiles launched by Hamas hit. This includes compensating businesses for lost turnover and ensuring salary payments for affected employees. To support this effort, the government has established a loan fund of ILS10bn (USD2.7bn) and is providing grants to businesses experiencing a sharp decline in sales. Predicting the overall financial impact of the conflict is difficult, given the uncertainty surrounding its duration. However, it is evident that Israel and the broader region will face tough economic times ahead. Its central bank has revised its growth forecast for 2024 from 3% to 2% and anticipates that GDP recovery to pre-war levels will take over a year. Despite these challenges, spending needs persist. The government recently increased the national budget by approximately USD19bn and projected a 6.6% deficit for the current year, largely due to war-related expenses. In response to these economic pressures, major credit-rating agencies such as Fitch Ratings, Moody’s, and S&P Global are evaluating Israel's A+ rating for a potential downgrade.[20]

Israel will experience a significant economic shock, with 90 percent of its impact stemming from indirect consequences such as decreased investment, a disrupted labor market, and hindered productivity growth.[21]

European investigations

On 7 March 2024, the EU's top diplomat Josep Borrell announced that the European Union would be investigating Israel's compliance with the human rights clauses stipulated in its trade deal, the EU-Israel Association Agreement.[22]

Military expenses

The war is costing the Israeli economy $600M a week due to work absences, according to the Bank of Israel. This is equivalent to about 6% of the weekly GDP.[23] The bank also stated that the estimate does not reflect total damage and did not include damages caused by the absence of Palestinian and foreign workers.[24] On the other hand, Israel's treasury minister said the daily direct cost of the Gaza war to her country is about 246 million.[25]

It has been estimated that if the war went on for eight to twelve months, the cost of the war to the Israeli economy would be more than $50bn, or close to 10% of GDP, according to Calcalist, citing early Ministry of Finance figures. The estimates assume the conflict is limited to Gaza, without further escalation with other parties, and relies on the 350,000 drafted reservists returning to work soon.[26]

In November, the Bank of Israel projected that the war would incur a total expense of approximately USD53 billion until 2025. This estimation was based on forecasts of increased defense and other expenditures, coupled with a decline in tax revenue. The magnitude of military activity witnessed by Israel in terms of duration, intensity, and cost has not been observed in recent times. The 2014 Gaza War, also known as Operation Protective Edge by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), lasted for over a month and had a significant impact on the Israeli economy. It resulted in an estimated loss of ILS7bn (USD1.96bn), excluding reservist pay and air force weaponry expenses. To restore financial stability, the government implemented a budget cut of ILS2bn (USD559m) across all ministries, except defense.[20]

Sanctions

This section is an excerpt from Israeli incursions in the West Bank during the Israel–Hamas war § Sanctions.[edit]

On 30 January United States President Joe Biden signed an executive order which allowed the US to impose sanctions on Israeli settlers, with potential inclusion of Israeli politicians and government officials that were found to be involved with violent attack against Palestinians. Biden had earlier ordered the secretaries of state and treasury to prepare for the potential sanctions against Israeli individuals or entities that were involved in the violence against Palestinians in the West Bank.[27] Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich responded to Biden's order, saying it was based on "an antisemitic lie".[28] Smotrich later stated, "We will not stand aside in the face of this injustice" and called for settlements to be "entrenched."[29][30] Israel's National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir praised the sanctioned settlers, calling them "heroic".[31] Netanyahu criticized the sanctions and called them unnecessary.[32] Following the U.S. sanctions, online fundraisers collected hundreds of thousands for the settlers.[33] In March 2024, the U.S. sanctioned three additional settlers and two settler outposts.[34]

On 4 February 2024, Canadian foreign minister Melanie Joly stated that her government was preparing to issue sanctions against extremist settlers.[35] The UK also issued sanctions on the four settlers.[36] On 13 February, France stated that it was imposing sanctions on 28 settlers who have used violence against Palestinians in the West Bank.[37] Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares said that Spain would implement settler sanctions if the European Union does not come to an agreement.[38] Spain later announced sanctions on twelve violent Israeli settlers.[39] On 18 March, the EU unanimously agreed to sanction violent Israeli settlers.[40]

Turkey began to impose export restrictions on Israel on April 9, 2024 on 54 different goods, including iron, marble, steel, cement, aluminium, brick, fertilizer, construction equipment and products, and aviation fuel.[41]

Israeli claims of Chinese sanctions

Israel's high-tech factories reported on 25 December that they had been having trouble with electronic imports from China due to recent bureaucratic obstacles, leading to higher import costs and delayed delivery times.[42] Israeli officials also reported that China had refused to send workers to their country during the war against the backdrop of a worker shortage in Israel's construction and farming sectors.[43] China's actions were described as a de facto sanction.[44][42]

Tourism

Tourism after the 7 October attacks slumped in Israel, with most international airlines suspending flights to Israel. The country saw about 58,000 tourists in January 2024 compared to the 257,400 that had come in January 2023, marking an about 80% decrease in numbers. The Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics reported that there had been a 96% decrease between the months in single day visits, with only 500 counted in 2024 compared to 14,000. Israelis are also limiting their travel abroad, with about a 50% decrease between the years.[45]

Many evacuees from attacked kibbutz's were settled in tourism based areas, causing many towns like Eilat to adjust to supporting evacuees and little to no tourists for their businesses. Business owners have reported having to lay off employees as evacuees mostly do not have the money to spend, and tourists find the space depressing due to the evacuees. The Israeli government announced in January 2024 that there would be an aid package for Eilat that included about 50 million shekels to help with business.[46]

In February 2024 it was reported that a thriving sector of touring the sites of the 7 October attacks had been created shortly after the attacks.[47][48] While some called the tours insensitive and uncomfortable, others feel it is akin to touring Holocaust sites such as Auschwitz to bear witness. People from across the globe have partaken in tours that cost reportedly between $85 to $100 per person.[49] Some of the tours are led by residents of the kibbutz's who feel that there is a need to return to prove they are stronger then the attack, and to tell the stories of the 7 October attacks, although some areas are closed military zones. Many visitors are part of solidarity mission participants from Jewish communities in the United States, celebrities and social media influencers.[50] Some notable visitors have included former Miss Iraq Sarah Idan,[51] Elon Musk,[52] Debra Messing and Douglas Murray,[53] who have used their platforms to document their experiences and spread information about their trips, emotions and beliefs.[54]

Global economy

The conflict has the potential to plunge the global economy into recession.[55] War could have significant repercussions on Europe’s economic landscape, impacting it through reduced regional commerce, stricter financial regulations, escalated energy costs, and diminished consumer assurance. Goldman Sachs underscored that the most crucial and potentially impactful method that strain could permeate the European economy was via the petroleum and natural gas markets.[56]

Economic disruption in the world

In a recent report, the World Bank issued a concerning warning on October 30 regarding the Israel-Gaza conflict. according to the mentioned report, this conflict has the potential to cause a significant global economic shock. One of the potential consequences could be a drastic increase in the prices of items such as oil, with projections suggesting that it can reach as high as $150 per barrel. This would have severe implications for the global economy, leading to higher food prices and potentially causing millions of people to go hungry. The mentioned report drew parallels to the 1973 war, during which Arab members of OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, imposed an oil embargo on the USA in response to their support for Israel.[57]

Yemen (Houthi) attacks

The Houthi attacks initially targeted ships with Israeli connections and later expanded to include assets from the U.S. and Europe. It is anticipated that these attacks will intensify if Israel proceeds with its invasion of Rafah in Gaza, with potential threats to undersea cables. According to experts, the destruction of these cables in the Red Sea could severely disrupt data and financial communications between Europe and Asia. Peter Krause, a political science professor at Boston College, has analyzed the war and its causes from an "inside-out" perspective. He refutes the popular argument that the Oct. 7 attack aimed to disrupt the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia, the U.S., and Israel.[58]

Impact on countries

Bahrain

Bahrain's National Assembly suspended diplomatic and economic relations on 2 November,[59] citing a "solid and historical stance that supports the Palestinian cause and the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people."[60][61]

Egypt

Egypt, a nation grappling with a vulnerable economy, confronts further obstacles as a result of the ongoing conflict near the Gaza Strip. This confrontation possesses the capacity to disrupt the tourism sector and impede the importation of natural gas, thereby placing strain on Egypt's economy. The war in Gaza, unfolding along Egypt's border with the Sinai Peninsula, coincides with Russia's aggression towards Ukraine and the global impact of the coronavirus pandemic, both of which have laid bare the vulnerabilities of Egypt's economy.[62]

Egypt's economy, already in a state of crisis, is now at risk of further damage due to Israel's conflict with Gaza and escalating tensions in the Red Sea, according to analysts; The country's economy, which is currently being sustained by external aid, is grappling with mounting public debt exceeding 90 percent of its GDP, capital outflows, and a depreciating currency against the US dollar.[63]

Bleak outlook for tourism

Egypt's historical landmarks such as the pyramids, museums, resorts, and monuments have always been a magnet for tourists worldwide, contributing significantly to the country's economy. By 2022, approximately three million Egyptians were employed in the tourism sector. Prior to the outbreak of the conflict between Israel and Gaza, Egypt's tourism industry was already facing challenges in recovering from the impact of COVID-19. Despite showing signs of improvement, the recent events in Gaza and the crisis in the Red Sea region are expected to negatively affect the revenue generated from tourism. S&P Global Ratings predicts a decline of 10-30 percent in Egypt's tourism revenues compared to the previous year, potentially leading to a loss of 4-11 percent in foreign exchange reserves and a decrease in GDP.[63]

Houthi attacks effects

Since November, Egypt has been facing the economic repercussions of Houthi missile and drone attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, which were carried out in response to Israel's conflict with Gaza. As a result, many shipping companies have chosen to redirect their vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, bypassing the shortest trade route connecting Asia to Europe through the Suez Canal. This has had a significant impact on Egypt's revenue from the Suez Canal, which amounted to $9.4bn in the 2022-23 fiscal year. However, in the first 11 days of this year, the revenue from the Suez Canal has experienced a drastic decline of 40 percent compared to the same period in the previous year.[63]

Indonesia

The ongoing conflict between Hamas and Israel is predicted to have repercussions on Indonesia's economy, specifically in the industrial domain. Bobby Gafur Umar, the leader of the Manufacturing Industry at the Indonesian Entrepreneurs Association (Apindo), highlighted that any turmoil in the Middle East would impact the business environment in Indonesia, particularly in the energy sector. A direct consequence of this war is the surge in energy prices, consequently resulting in a rise in the expenses associated with raw materials. This is primarily because Indonesia cannot produce all the required raw materials domestically.[64]

India

Indian experts are expressing their apprehension about the ongoing conflict, as they fear it may have adverse effects on the Indian economy. The escalating oil prices are expected to raise import costs, consequently leading to an increase in prices for commodities and food items. This situation poses a significant challenge for the Indian economy.[65]

Lebanon

The olive trade in southern Lebanon, which is the main source of income for many, was halted as farmers stopped their harvests in fear of the active shelling.[66][67] According to the Minister of Agriculture, 40,000 olive trees were burned down by fires caused by IDF shelling.[68] The Institute of International Finance predicted that Lebanon's GDP could decline by one percent by the end of the year and by 30 percent in 2024 in the event of further spillover of the war.[69]

United States

The United States House of Representatives has endorsed the Republican proposal, which designates $14.5 billion in military support for Israel. Furthermore, Israel has been the recipient of the largest sum of military aid from the US in comparison to any other country since the conclusion of World War II, with assistance surpassing $124 billion.[70]

Brand boycotts

See also: Boycotts of Israel; Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions; and Disinvestment from Israel
Pro-Palestinian protest in Ottawa, Canada, 23 Nov 2023

The brand boycott was a notable aspect of the war's economic implications. Brands such as McDonald's, Coca-Cola and Starbucks faced consumer boycotts over their support of Israel;[71] reflecting anger at Western governments' support for Israel.[72][73][74][75][76]

Campaigners in Derry, Northern Ireland persuaded O'Neills to remove Puma products due to the sports brand's sponsoring of the Israeli Football Association.[77] Starbucks was targeted in Keighley, West Yorkshire, with protesters smashing the shop's windows, following the corporation's decision to sue the Starbuck Workers United union after the labour organisation posted on social media support for Palestine.[78]

Direct action was taken at arms factories in the United States and the United Kingdom that supplied arms to Israel, such as Lockheed Martin,[79][80] General Dynamics,[81] Textron,[82] Boeing,[83] L3Harris,[84] Raytheon Technologies and Northrop Grumman.[85] For instance, on 10 November 2023, trade unionists in Rochester, Kent, blocked the entrances to a BAE Systems factory, stating the facility manufactured military aircraft components used to bomb Gaza;[86] and on 16 November, Palestine Action occupied a Leonardo factory in Southampton, stopping production.[87] ZIM was barred from entering ports in Malaysia.[88]

On April 4, 2024, McDonald's Corporation announced that it would buy Alyonal from its CEO, Omri Padan, which would make the Israeli McDonald's franchise corporate-owned, pending regulatory approval. The announcement was after a boycott was called in Muslim-majority countries after Padan had offered free meals to IDF troops after the start of the Israel-Hamas war.[89][90]

Other impacts

In March 2024, Michael Fakhri, the UN special rapporteur on the right to food, and Balakrishnan Rajagopal, the UN special rapporteur on the right to adequate housing, called on BP, Chevron, and Exxon to cease providing oil to Israel, with Rajagopal stating, "Corporations should cease and desist or face potential liability tomorrow."[91]

International Monetary Fund

The growth forecast for the entire Middle East-North Africa (MENA) region has recently been revised downwards by the International Monetary Fund. According to the IMF, the region is expected to experience a 0.5 percent decline in growth, which is a cause for concern. The IMF attributes this contraction to various factors, including a decrease in oil production and a significant decline in tourism, particularly in countries like Egypt and Jordan, where tourism plays a crucial role in their economies.

Furthermore, the disruptive impact of Iran-backed Houthi attacks on shipping is exacerbating the situation. Describing the aggression in the Red Sea as a significant maritime chokehold, Hamaizia highlights that approximately 30 percent of global shipping has been affected. This has resulted in a 43 percent decrease in traffic through the Suez Canal and a 60 percent increase in traffic around the Cape of Good Hope, a longer and considerably more expensive route.[92]

See also

References

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