Meteorological history of Cyclone Freddy

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Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Freddy
Track of Cyclone Freddy, according to the Saffir-Simpson scale
Meteorological history
Formed5 February 2023
Dissipated14 March 2023
Duration5 weeks and 2 days
Very intense tropical cyclone
10-minute sustained (MFR)
Highest winds230 km/h (145 mph)
Lowest pressure927 hPa (mbar); 27.37 inHg
Category 5-equivalent tropical cyclone
1-minute sustained (SSHWS/JTWC)
Highest winds270 km/h (165 mph)
Lowest pressure918 hPa (mbar); 27.11 inHg
Overall effects
Areas affected
Part of the 2022–23 Australian region and South-West Indian Ocean cyclone seasons

Cyclone Freddy was the longest-lived tropical cyclone on record, beating the previous record of Hurricane John in 1994.[1] It also has the highest accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of any tropical cyclone on record worldwide, surpassing Hurricane Ioke in 2006.[1] Additionally, Freddy is the only known tropical cyclone to achieve seven separate rapid intensification cycles.[2] While in the Australian region cyclone basin, the storm quickly intensified and became a Category 4 severe tropical cyclone, before it moved into the South-West Indian Ocean basin. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimated Freddy's peak strength, equivalent to Category 5 strength on the Saffir–Simpson scale. The Météo-France (MFR) upgraded it to a very intense tropical cyclone. Freddy made its first landfall near Mananjary, Madagascar. Freddy rapidly weakened overland but re-strengthened in the Mozambique Channel. Soon afterward, Freddy made its second landfall just south of Vilankulos, Mozambique.

The remnant low of Freddy began to acquire tropical characteristics after re-emerging into the channel. Soon after, Freddy intensified, becoming a tropical cyclone. Then, Freddy made its final landfall in Quelimane, Zambezia Province, Mozambique, Freddy gradually deteriorated and last noted on 14 March. Catastrophic flooding and extensive wind damage ensued, resulting in 1,434 fatalities across Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi, Mauritius, and Zimbabwe, making it the third-deadliest tropical cyclone recorded in the Southern Hemisphere, only behind 2019's Cyclone Idai and the 1973 Flores cyclone. Total damages are estimated to reach $655 million, making it the second-costliest cyclone in the south-west Indian Ocean after Idai in 2019.

Origin and intensification[edit]

Cyclone Freddy starting to intensify off the coast of Western Australia on 7 February.

The presence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and an equatorial Rossby wave in the Australian region contributed to the formation of tropical low over the north of Western Australia.[3] A tropical low was originally identified south of Bali, Indonesia early on 5 February.[4] Originally, the circulation was poorly defined and elongated, but in the evening and overnight, persistent convection occurred and began to show signs of improvement in the organization.[4][5] During 6 February, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)[nb 1] issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) on the system.[7] By 09:00 UTC, the JTWC initiated advisories on the system and classified it as Tropical Cyclone 11S.[8]

Cyclones Freddy (left) and Gabrielle (right) on opposite sides of Australia on 7 and 8 February 2023, and the Tropical Low that would eventually become Cyclone Dingani

During a period of rapid development while moving slowly south-southwest, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM)[nb 2] stated that the tropical low had strengthened into a Category 1 tropical cyclone on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale and was given the name Freddy.[4][10][11] Later that next day, feeder bands were covering its very broad central dense overcast (CDO), prompting the JTWC to upgrade the system to a Category 1-equivalent cyclone.[12] The BoM subsequently followed suit and upgraded Freddy into a Category 2 tropical cyclone.[13] Freddy attained Category 3 cyclone.[14] Freddy began showing an eye feature seen in microwave imaging, with Freddy later becoming a Category 2-equivalent cyclone.[15]

Freddy weakened slightly due to CDO and a persistent area of cold cloud tops.[16] Weakening occurred as the JTWC assessed that Freddy's winds bottomed out at 150 km/h (90 mph).[17] Freddy weakened back into a tropical storm, and the BoM estimated winds of 100 km/h (65 mph), the weakening resulting from easterly wind shear.[18][19] Continuing to rapidly intensify, Freddy became a Category 3-equivalent cyclone around 15:00 UTC on 11 February.[20] Freddy had further intensified to a Category 4 severe tropical cyclone due to the presence of a well-defined eye surrounded by deep convection.[21] Freddy intensified into a Category 4-equivalent cyclone with a symmetric CDO.[22] According to the JTWC, Freddy gradually became disorganized, with its eye no longer well-defined, and Freddy fell to 185 km/h (115 mph) winds.[23]

The BoM also reported that Freddy's winds weakened to 155 km/h (100 mph).[24] Despite easterly vertical wind shear, Freddy maintained a symmetric convective core.[25] The cyclone's ragged and cloud filled eye appeared on satellite imagery.[26] At 12:00 UTC on 14 February, Freddy crossed 90° E into the South-West Indian Ocean basin, and was immediately classified as a tropical cyclone by Météo-France (MFR)[nb 3][28][29] The MFR upgraded the system to an intense tropical cyclone.[30] Freddy exhibited highly symmetrical and annular characteristics around 03:00 UTC on 15 February.[31] Later the next day, the JTWC also assessed Freddy as having 1-minute maximum sustained winds of 270 km/h (165 mph), making the storm a Category 5-equivalent tropical cyclone,[32][33] as the cyclone sustained a symmetric ring around deep convection.[34] During 18 February, Freddy began to rapidly deteriorate as a sudden spike in mid-level shear began impacting the storm.[35]

Strengthening and weakening[edit]

Cylone Freddy displaying annular characteristics on the afternoon of 16 February.

The cyclone briefly weakened to 1-minute sustained winds of 205 km/h (125 mph) before restrengthening once again.[36] Later that next day, Freddy was upgraded to a very intense tropical cyclone.[37] Shortly afterward, Freddy's cloud pattern slightly deteriorated, causing the cyclone to weaken to an intense tropical cyclone by 00:00 UTC on 20 February.[38] Freddy passed north of Mauritius and Réunion[39] and weakened to a tropical cyclone on 21 February.[40] At about 7 p.m. local time that day, the cyclone made its first landfall near Mananjary, Madagascar.[41] After landfall, Freddy was re-classified as an overland depression, with sustained winds of 110 km/h (70 mph).[42] The JTWC also reported that Freddy substantially weakened as it traversed the mountainous terrain of Madagascar, and was downgraded to 130 km/h (80 mph).[43] During 22 February, Freddy significantly improved in organization as it moved southwestward across the Mozambique Channel.[44] Freddy re-strengthened into a zone of disturbed weather.[44][45] Freddy had re-developed under the deep convection in the northern semicircle of the circulation.[46] Freddy re-strengthened into a moderate tropical storm after the convection began to rapidly increase.[47] The system passed to the north of Europa Island.[48]

Freddy re-strengthened further, marking its intensification into a severe tropical storm.[49] Freddy continued to organize with convective bands wrapping into the center.[50] Six hours later, the cloud pattern deteriorated, as it approached the coast of Mozambique.[51] By 12:00 UTC on 24 February, the MFR reported that Freddy had made its second landfall in Mozambique south of Vilankulos, with 10-sustained winds of 85 km/h (50 mph).[52] Shortly after the landfall, the JTWC discontinued warnings about the system.[53] Freddy rapidly weakened as it moved westward and further inland, weakening to an overland depression by 18:00 UTC that day.[54] The MFR determined that Freddy's convective activity was located in the southeast semicircle.[55] Although the MFR stopped issuing advisories on 25 February, they were still monitoring and predicted that the remnant low would likely re-develop into a tropical system.[56][57]

The structural evolution of Cyclone Freddy from a landfall to moving over Mozambique
  • 25 February: Freddy moving over Mozambique.
    21 February: Freddy continuing to inch closer to the east coast of Madagascar
  • 25 February: Freddy moving over Mozambique.
    22 February: Freddy substantially weakened as it traversed the mountainous terrain of Madagascar.
  • 25 February: Freddy moving over Mozambique.
    23 February: Freddy regenerating over the Mozambique Channel.
  • 25 February: Freddy moving over Mozambique.
    24 February: Freddy nearing Mozambique
  • 25 February: Freddy moving over Mozambique.
    25 February: Freddy moving over Mozambique.

Regeneration and demise[edit]

During 1 March, Freddy re-emerged into the Mozambique Channel, the JTWC resumed monitoring and stated the system had the potential to re-develop.[58] Environmental conditions were assessed as being marginally conducive for tropical cyclogenesis, with low vertical wind shear and moderate equatorial outflow.[58] During 2 March, Freddy observed an increase in deep convection in the eastern semicircle, prompting the MFR to classify the storm as a tropical disturbance again.[59] Microwave imagery revealed that Freddy convection was gradually wrapping around the southern periphery of the circulation.[60] Later that next day, Freddy was downgraded to zone of disturbed weather status by the MFR.[61] Multispectral animated satellite imagery partially revealed an exposed low-level circulation center (LLCC) with deep convection persisting along the eastern periphery of the LLCC.[62] As a result, the JTWC re-issued a TCFA by 21:00 UTC that day.[62] Freddy showed signs of intensification as it approached the system's estimated center, the MFR upgraded the system to a tropical depression.[63] Freddy strengthened into a moderate tropical storm as the ASCAT-C pass featured below gale-force winds on its southern quadrant.[64] Six hours later, Freddy gained tropical storm strength yet again under the influence of a persistent area of convection.[65] The convection continued to decrease, and Freddy was better organized through the LLCC.[66] Freddy gradually improved its convection with improvements in further consolidation.[67] By 18:00 UTC on 5 March, Freddy strengthened into a severe tropical storm as it accelerated eastward toward the coast of Madagascar.[68]

The convection wrapped around the system's LLCC and the system gradually consolidated.[69] Freddy began to show an ill-defined eye that was visible on satellite imagery.[70] During 7 March, Freddy had become a tropical cyclone with sustained winds of 130 km/h (80 mph), while the JTWC estimated that its 1-minute sustained winds reached 155 km/h (100 mph).[71][72] Six hours later, Freddy continued to interact with a mid-troposphere shear.[73] Freddy fell to severe tropical storm status later that next day.[74] The cyclone then rapidly weakened as a result of the presence of higher wind shear as well as dry air intrusion.[75] Later, the storm weakened to 110 km/h (70 mph).[75] Despite the shear, convection intensified near the center as banding features improved.[76][77] The Dvorak analysis indicated that Freddy strengthened to 120 km/h (75 mph).[78] The cyclone had a well-defined eye within the storm's compact and symmetrical CDO.[79][80] During 11 March, Freddy made its third landfall on Quelimane, Zambezia Province, Mozambique, with sustained winds of 150 km/h (90 mph).[81][82] The JTWC subsequently issued a final warning on the system three hours later.[83] As the cyclone's eye disappeared from satellite imagery, Freddy weakened into a severe tropical storm.[84] Six hours later, Freddy's cloud pattern deteriorated, with the storm weakening back into a moderate tropical storm.[85] Freddy weakened to an overland depression with sustained winds of around 55 km/h (35 mph).[86] At 12:00 UTC on 14 March, the MFR ceased monitoring it as a tropical cyclone.[87]

The structural evolution of Cyclone Freddy from a regeneration into a tropical cyclone
  • 5 March: Freddy began to acquire tropical characteristics after re-emerging into the channel.
    5 March: Freddy began to acquire tropical characteristics after re-emerging into the channel.
  • 6 March: Freddy meandering off the west coast of Madagascar on 6 March.
    6 March: Freddy meandering off the west coast of Madagascar.
  • 7 March: Freddy intensifying off the coast of Madagascar on 7 March.
    7 March: Freddy intensifying off the coast of Madagascar.
  • 11 March: Freddy nearly stationary while off the coast of Mozambique on 11 March.
    11 March: Freddy nearly stationary while off the coast of Mozambique.
  • 12 March: Freddy weakening after its second landfall in Mozambique while delivering flooding rains.
    12 March: Freddy weakening after its second landfall in Mozambique while delivering flooding rains.

Records[edit]

Cyclone Freddy holds the record for the longest-lasting tropical cyclone worldwide in recorded history,[2][88] pending a formal investigation to be conducted by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), in order to determine whether Freddy truly tied or surpassed John's record.[89] Freddy also holds the record for the all-time highest accumulated cyclone energy of a tropical cyclone worldwide, with an ACE of 87.01, breaking the former record of 85.26, set by Ioke in 2006.[1] Additionally, Freddy was the first tropical cyclone to undergo seven separate rounds of rapid intensification.[1] No other tropical cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere is known to have rapidly intensified more than three times.[90] Only three other storms, all in the Northern Hemisphere, underwent four periods of rapid intensification, namely Norman in 2018, Emily in 2005, and Hurricane |John in 1994.[2] Freddy was one of only four systems—the others being cyclones Litanne in 1994 and Leon–Eline and Hudah in 2000—to travel the entirety of the southern Indian Ocean.[91]

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is a joint United States Navy – United States Air Force task force that issues tropical cyclone warnings for the Indian Ocean and other regions.[6]
  2. ^ The Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre in Melbourne, Australia, is a branch of the country's Bureau of Meteorology, which is the official Regional Specialized Meteorological Center for the Australian basin.[9]
  3. ^ Météo-France's meteorological office in Réunion (MFR) is the official Regional Specialized Meteorological Center for the South-West Indian Ocean, tracking all tropical cyclones south of the equator, from the east coast of Africa to 90° E.[27]

References[edit]

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  2. ^ a b c Cappucci, Matthew (7 March 2023). "Deadly cyclone Freddy has become Earth's longest-lived tropical storm". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on 7 March 2023. Retrieved 7 March 2023.
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External links[edit]

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