Opinion polling for the 2024 Queensland state election

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In the lead-up to the 2024 Queensland state election, a number of polling companies will conduct regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls will collect data on parties' primary vote, and will contain an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote. They will also ask questions about the electorates' views on major party leaders.

Graphical summary[edit]

Voting intention[edit]

Legislative Assembly polling
Date Firm Sample Primary vote 2pp vote
ALP LNP GRN ON KAP OTH ALP LNP
9–17 April 2024 YouGov[1] 1,092 27% 44% 15% 10% 1% 3% 44% 56%
16 March 2024 The local government elections are held, LNP wins Ipswich West by-election and Labor holds its seat in Inala.
7–13 March 2024 Newspoll[2] 1,037 30% 42% 13% 8% — — 46% 54%
13 February 2024 uComms[3][4] 1,743 34.2% 37.3% 12.2% 7.7% 3.9% 4.7% 50% 50%
26 December 2023 uComms[5] 1,911 34.4% 36.2% — — — — 49% 51%
15 December 2023 Steven Miles is officially elected Leader of Queensland Labor; sworn in as Premier of Queensland.
13 December 2023 uComms[6] 1,143 34% 38.2% 11.9% 7.8% 3.3% 4.8% 48% 52%
10 December 2023 Annastacia Palaszczuk announces her intention to resign as Leader of Queensland Labor and Premier of Queensland.
September – December 2023 Resolve Strategic[7][8] 940 33% 37% 12% 8% — 10% 49.5% 50.5%
4–10 October 2023 YouGov[9] 1,013 33% 41% 13% 8% 2% 3% 48% 52%
26 August – 6 September 2023 RedBridge[10][11][12][13] 2,012 26% 41% 14% 9% — 10% 45% 55%
May – August 2023 Resolve Strategic[14] 943 32% 38% 11% 8% 1% 10%[a] 48% 52%
29 June – 2 July 2023 Freshwater Strategy[15] 1,065 34% 40% 11% — — 15% 49% 51%
17 January – 17 April 2023 Resolve Strategic[16] 943 35% 33% 12% 7% 1% 11%[b] 52.5% 47.5%
30 March – 5 April 2023 YouGov[17] 1,015 33% 39% 13% 10% 2% — 49% 51%
1–8 December 2022 YouGov[18] ~1,000 34% 38% 13% 11% — 4% 50% 50%
21 August – 4 December 2022 Resolve Strategic[19] 924 37% 35% 11% 6% 1% 10%[c] 53.2% 46.8%
23–30 June 2022 YouGov[20] ~1,000 34% 38% 14% 10% 1% 3% 50% 50%
18–23 February 2022 YouGov[21] ~1,000 39% 38% 10% 8% 1% 4% 52% 48%
31 October 2020 election 39.6% 35.9% 9.5% 7.1% 2.5% 5.7% 53.2% 46.8%

Some polls do not publish a two-party-preferred result. In these cases, the result has been manually calculated from preference flows at the 2020 election.

Preferred Premier and satisfaction[edit]

Preferred Premier[edit]

Date Polling firm Sample Preferred Premier
Miles Crisafulli Don't know
9–17 Apr 2024 YouGov[22] 1,092 27% 40% 33%
7–13 March 2024 Newspoll[2] 1,037 37% 43% 20%
13 February 2024 uComms[3][4] 1,743 49% 51% —
26 December 2023 uComms[5] 1,911 47.8% 52.2% —
Date Polling firm Sample Preferred Premier
Palaszczuk Crisafulli Don't know
September – December 2023 Resolve Strategic[7][8] 940 34% 39% 27%
10 Nov 2023 SEC Newgate[23] 600 30% 34% 36%
4–10 Oct 2023 YouGov[9] 1,013 35% 37% 28%
December 2023 Resolve Strategic[7][8] 940 34% 39% 27%
May – August 2023 Resolve Strategic[14] 943 36% 37% 27%
29 June – 2 July 2023 AFR/Freshwater Strategy[15] 1,065 44% 45% 11%
17 Jan – 17 Apr 2023 Resolve Strategic[16] 943 39% 31% 31%
30 Mar – 5 Apr 2023 YouGov[17] 1,015 31% 29% 40%
1–8 Dec 2022 YouGov[18] ~1,000 39% 28% 33%
21 Aug – 4 Dec 2022 Resolve Strategic[19] 924 42% 30% 28%
23–30 Jun 2022 YouGov[20] ~1,000 41% 28% 31%

Satisfaction ratings[edit]

Date Polling firm Sample Miles Crisafulli
Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Net Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Net
9–17 Apr 2024 YouGov[22] 1,092 25% 47% 28% –22% 40% 26% 34% +14%
7–13 March 2024 Newspoll[2] 1,037 38% 49% 13% -11% 47% 33% 20% +14%
13 February 2024 uComms[3][4] 1,743 44.2% 25.2% 25.2% +19% 41.7% 18.7% 31.2% +23%
13 December 2023 uComms[6] 1,143 38.4% 25.9% 35.6% +12.5% — — — —
Date Polling firm Sample Palaszczuk Crisafulli
Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Net Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Net
September – December 2023 Resolve Strategic[7][8] 940 — — — –17% — — — +9%
4–10 Oct 2023 YouGov[9] 1,013 32% 52% 16% –20% 37% 26% 37% +11%
September – December 2023 Resolve Strategic[7][8] 940 — — — –17% — — — +9%
May – August 2023 Resolve Strategic[14] 943 — — — –15% — — — +7%
29 June – 2 July 2023 AFR/Freshwater Strategy[15] 1,065 39% 47% 14% –8% — — — —
1–8 Dec 2022 YouGov[18] ~1,000 40% 41% 19% –1% 31% 27% 42% +4%
23–30 Jun 2022 YouGov[20] ~1,000 45% 30% 16% +15% 31% 23% 46% +8%
18–23 Feb 2022 YouGov[21] ~1,000 50% 36% 14% +14% — — — —

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Independents: 8%, Other parties: 2%
  2. ^ Independents: 10%, Other parties: 1%
  3. ^ Independents: 7%, Other parties: 3%

References[edit]

  1. ^ Johnson, Hayden; Burns, Christopher (26 April 2024). "YouGov poll: Labor on track to lose 21 seats at Queensland state election". Courier Mail.
  2. ^ a b c Lynch, Lydia (15 March 2024). "Newspoll: Queensland's Liberal National Party in box seat for majority government". The Australian.
  3. ^ a b c Johnson, Hayden (23 February 2024). "Polling shock: Battlelines drawn as explosive new poll delivers boilover no one saw coming". Courier Mail.
  4. ^ a b c "uComms: 50-50 in Queensland – The Poll Bludger". www.pollbludger.net. Retrieved 2024-02-23.
  5. ^ a b McCormack, Madura (26 December 2023). "UComms poll: Steven Miles's ascension makes little difference to Labor fortunes". Courier Mail.
  6. ^ a b Smee, Ben (21 December 2023). "Poll bombshell: Result that changes everything in battle for Premier". Guardian Australia.
  7. ^ a b c d e Dennien, Matt (5 December 2023). "Support for Labor steadies, despite dip in Palaszczuk's popularity". Brisbane Times.
  8. ^ a b c d e "Resolve Strategic: LNP 37, Labor 33, Greens 12 in Queensland – The Poll Bludger". www.pollbludger.net. Retrieved 2023-12-06.
  9. ^ a b c Johnson, Hayden (26 October 2023). "Poll bombshell: Result that changes everything in battle for Premier". Courier Mail.
  10. ^ Bennett, Stephanie (9 September 2023). "New Qld poll shows 'strong mood' to dump Labor". Courier Mail.
  11. ^ Tapper, Michelle; Iorio, Kelsie (9 September 2023). "LNP gains more ground over Labor in polls, surges ahead in primary vote". ABC News (Australia).
  12. ^ "Weekend miscellany: Voice and Queensland polls, Liberal Senate preselections (open thread) – The Poll Bludger". www.pollbludger.net. Retrieved 2023-09-09.
  13. ^ "Queensland vote intention" (PDF). RedBridge Group. Retrieved 2023-09-09.
  14. ^ a b c Dennien, Matt (17 August 2023). "LNP ahead in the polls as voters consider Crisafulli over Palaszczuk". Brisbane Times.
  15. ^ a b c Ludlow, Mark (5 July 2023). "Palaszczuk on track to lose in 2024: poll". Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 5 July 2023.
  16. ^ a b Dennien, Matt (19 April 2023). "Crashing the parties: Voters mark leaders down but Palaszczuk keeps her edge". Brisbane Times.
  17. ^ a b McKay, Jack (21 April 2023). "Annastacia Palaszczuk's standing as preferred premier sinks to lowest level since she took up top job". The Courier-Mail. Retrieved 22 April 2023.
  18. ^ a b c "YouGov poll reveals LNP and Labor neck and neck". The Courier Mail. 11 December 2022.
  19. ^ a b "Palaszczuk Labor still favoured by voters at political halfway mark". Brisbane Times. 12 December 2022.
  20. ^ a b c "Palaszczuk shockwaves: Labor's lead obliterated, shock result if election held today". The Courier Mail. 4 July 2022.
  21. ^ a b "LNP closing the gap on Labor's lead in the polls, Annastacia Palaszczuk viewed less favourably". The Courier Mail. 25 February 2022.
  22. ^ a b McCormack, Madura (26 April 2024). "YouGov poll: Steven Miles more unpopular than Campbell Newman before 2014 election defeat". Courier Mail.
  23. ^ Pierce, Jeremy; Mulvaney, Mikaela (10 November 2023). "Shock poll result for Queensland government". Courier Mail.
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