Talk:2006 Pacific typhoon season/July

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July[edit]

Week 1[edit]

96W.INVEST[edit]

Another one is up. --24.83.123.85 17:02, 1 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC notes formation of a significant tropical Cyclone is now fair - VOFFA 00:08, 3 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

invest got replaced by 97W as center relocated - VOFFA 15:16, 4 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

97W.INVEST[edit]

NRL shows it just north of the equator - VOFFA 01:13, 4 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

TCFA is issued. - VOFFA 15:17, 4 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Now cancelled. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 13:18, 5 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Gone. -- RattleMan 05:11, 7 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Week 2[edit]

05W.BILIS[edit]

98W.INVEST[edit]

Not looking too well... íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 13:18, 5 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

TCFA. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 15:00, 7 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
05W.NONAME[edit]

Gone from the NRL but also has it as 05W.NONAME. I think its removal was just a mistake, and possibly it being named a tropical cyclone. I wonder... íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 01:19, 8 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

lol, was wondering why 05W.NONAME was in the inactive section there. - VOFFA 01:44, 8 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Well, it's back. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 20:05, 8 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
05W.BILIS[edit]

Now TS 0605 BILIS from RSMC Tokyo. Interestingly, though, JTWC and US NWS Guam still consider this storm a depression. Is this the first time this has happened? Chacor 13:56, 9 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

The storm is very large around 1,110 km (600 nm). So is this the largest tropical storm ever observe? Irfanfaiz 06:53, 10 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Appears to be headed straight for Taiwan [1]. Combined with the sinking of a fishing vessel off the Philippines in rough seas [2] I suspect we may see some more serious effects from this one. -Loren 00:00, 12 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Still alive, according to the JMA, even though it's very far inland. --Coredesat talk. o.o;; 06:19, 15 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Fortunately, no death were reported in mainland China (which is not very resistant to TCs) and the effects were limited this time. I hope this will be true for all future tropical cyclones.Momoko

Just 1 day later, increasing death toll comes.Momoko 06:38, 16 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

BBC now reporting a death toll of 115; higher than Chanchu. This may warrant an article despite the weakness of the storm. (Assuming that we can get enough information.) —Cuiviénen 03:10, 17 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
I wouldn't be opposed to that if sources can be found. The blurb on the main season article is the largest one there, and has quite a few sources. --Coredesat talk. o.o;; 03:22, 17 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Yeah, definitely needs an article. The section in the season article is waaaaay too long. I'd start it myself, but I don't really know where to begin. --Coredesat talk. o.o;; 03:56, 21 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I've gone ahead and started an article on Bilis, so someone needs to shorten the blurb on the season article. --Coredesat talk. o.o;; 01:42, 22 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Week 3[edit]

99W.INVEST[edit]

A new invest close to the equator and southeast of the Philippines has formed as stated by the US Navy NRL page. I guess it formed about 12-18 hours ago. Alastor Moody (talk) 22:16, 14 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Guangzhou upgraded it into a TD - should this be included? http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wh/whci28.bcgz..txt and a post by "Gursev" at Friday, July 21, 2006 - 1:25 pm on http://www.weather.org.hk/discus4/messages/39/1682.html?1153459745

Typhoonchaser 06:49, 21 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC calls it "dissipated". Chacor 08:59, 22 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
But the NRL still has it and how come the Guangdong Regional Meteorological Centre declared it as a tropical depression when no one recognizes it as anything. Alastor Moody (talk) 20:37, 22 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
It looks more concentrated now than it did earlier, but it's still being disrupted by Kaemi. bob rulz 04:03, 24 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Gone from NRL now. -- RattleMan 04:32, 25 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

06W.KAEMI[edit]

90W.INVEST[edit]

A new invest about 625 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM -- VOFFA 00:07, 17 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued -- VOFFA 14:31, 17 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
06W.NONAME[edit]
Now NONAME on NRL. 24.83.98.3 02:55, 18 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
TS 06W[edit]

Now a TS. It doesn't have a name yet, but I had to write something to distinguish from the above header. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 21:04, 18 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Changed from "06W.KAEMI" (RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center's jurisdiction, as it seems to have confused some people) to "TS 06W". Chacor 01:16, 19 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
06W.KAEMI[edit]

Now Kaemi, from the JMA. Chacor 08:16, 19 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JMA upgraded Kaemi from TS to STS at 6.00 am UTC. -- Koffieyahoo 08:09, 20 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Kaemi dosen't have an eye though. It's a strong Category 2 typhoon now. Irfanfaiz 13:02, 22 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Bad news: It appears to be headed toward the same areas affected by Bilis last week. --Coredesat talk. o.o;; 18:42, 22 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Could this be the "Hurricane Katrina" of China, somewhat like TS Bilis. Alastor Moody (talk) 20:30, 22 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
A clear eye refused to develop. Must be the wind sheer that tear up the developing eye when it was intensfying. Irfanfaiz 07:16, 23 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Indeed. This thing never had a real eye. Cyclones don't look nearly as healthy when they don't have a clear eye, do they? bob rulz 03:54, 24 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
But this image tells the story: [3]

Irfanfaiz 05:32, 24 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Yep, that it does. bob rulz 07:33, 24 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Looks like this little ant is hiding her eye. It is only visible to microwave imagery. Irfanfaiz 10:18, 24 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JMA downgraded Kaemi from TY to STS on 00:00 UTC, 25 July. -- Koffieyahoo 02:03, 25 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It looks kind of typhoonish to me... look at CWB's radar and visible satellite image. Looks like it's got an eye... Typhoonchaser 05:38, 25 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Now since it is still Cat. 1 typhoon strength, I expect Kaemi to do similar or more damage to China like Bilis. Alastor Moody (talk) 06:15, 22 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Discrepancies between the agencies... CMA says landfall at 3:50, CWB says it hasn't made landfall at 5 pm yet... Typhoonchaser 09:43, 25 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Over the next few days, Kaemi could possibly bring downpours and kill hundreds by the dozen; most by flooding and mudslides. Alastor Moody (talk) 22:20, 25 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Now come on people, just because Bilis killed hundreds of people doesn't mean Kaemi will. bob rulz 01:52, 26 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Agreed. Alastor, calm down with the speculation a bit. Wikipedia is not a crystal ball. --Hurricanehink (talk) 02:28, 26 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Gone from NLR and JMA just downgraded from TS to TD at 6.00 UTC, 26 July. -- Koffieyahoo 06:51, 26 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

A satallite image of Kaemi would be nice. Does anyone have something usable to put up? -- Koffieyahoo 02:19, 28 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

91W.INVEST[edit]

And another new invest, spinning out near no land south-east of Japan. -- RattleMan 06:15, 17 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Gone. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 00:14, 19 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

92W.INVEST[edit]

Yet another new invest, this one close to the equator at around 3.5N 148E. -- RattleMan 00:33, 18 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

gone. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 12:59, 19 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

93W.INVEST[edit]

New one. Chacor 05:36, 20 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Gone. -- Koffieyahoo 07:34, 21 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

94W.INVEST[edit]

Here's 94W. -- RattleMan 07:02, 21 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Gone. Chacor 02:07, 22 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

95W.INVEST[edit]

And, here's 95W. -- RattleMan 07:02, 21 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Also gone. Chacor 02:08, 22 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

July[edit]

Week 4 and Week 5[edit]

07W.PRAPIROON[edit]

96W.INVEST[edit]

It's now up. Chacor 02:08, 22 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Dosen't look good for 96W.INVEST. This thing is hardly anything at all. Alastor Moody (talk) 20:40, 22 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
I'm still wondering why this thing is still an invest...or ever even was. bob rulz 04:04, 24 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Now it seems to be nothing at all except a few small clouds. Alastor Moody (talk) 06:19, 24 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
It's making a comeback! bob rulz 04:25, 27 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
JTWC statement: Chacor 04:39, 27 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
Well good grief! 96W. INVEST has stayed at INVEST status about almost a whole week and now it's developing, give me a break. This thing looks its bound to dissipae. Alastor Moody (talk) 07:00, 27 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
This thing definitely looks like a tropical depression. Why hasn't it been declared one yet? bob rulz 04:04, 28 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JMA: 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 13N 128E NW SLOWLY.

Chacor 14:50, 28 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Shall we add it to the article? íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 15:49, 28 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
FNMOC satellite data page says 07W.INVEST. Probably a sign that JTWC will upgrade it to 07W at 0000 Z... Typhoonchaser 00:55, 31 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Gone from NRL? Chacor 01:19, 31 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Opps didn't see this written here and made a new column below.. -- VOFFA 01:32, 31 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

96W."HENRY"[edit]

PAGASA has named it. Still a TD from JMA. Added to article. Chacor 06:57, 29 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

If TD "Henry" manages to reach TS level, the JMA may possibly and officially name it as TS Prapiroon. Alastor Moody (talk) 01:35, 30 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Not true, PAGASA designated Florita as a typhoon, but the JMA considered it only an STS (Bilis). It's possible that PAGASA upgrade this to a TS, but JMA still consider it a TD and JTWC still consider it an INVEST. Chacor 01:58, 30 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Domeng ended up a tropical storm than as it passed the Philippines it got assigned TD 03W by JTWC though PAGASA still had the storm at "Tropical Storm" beside this invest is still at 15 knots according to JTWC. -- VOFFA 02:29, 30 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Isn't it weird how a small INVEST dosen't develope for almost a week and nearly dissipates, but then unexpectedly becomes a tropical depression? Alastor Moody (talk) 02:28, 30 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert -- VOFFA 02:43, 30 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It's about time. This thing has looked like a tropical depression for a couple of days. bob rulz 03:16, 31 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
07W.NONAME[edit]

It's about time. bob rulz 03:14, 31 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

But don't forget, it is now a mere 30 mph depression, but this depression is forecasted by the NRL to strength into TS level in the South China Sea. Alastor Moody (talk) 08:41, 31 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
The NRL has 45 mph. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 01:22, 1 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Now its up to the JMA to see if it officially becomes a TS and then it will be christened TS Prapiroon (Henry). Plus, I wonder if it may reach typhoon status. Alastor Moody (talk) 05:03, 31 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
07W.PRAPIROON[edit]

Now TS 0606 Prapiroon. Chacor 07:35, 1 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

If the JMA has already designated 07W as Prapiroon, how come to Navy site still has it as "07W.NONAME"? Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody 08:40, 1 August (UTC)
Never mind. Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody 08:45, 1 August (UTC)
Now the JMA has it as a severe tropical storm. Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody 00:35, 2 August (UTC)

Henry has moved out of the PAGASA AOR and is no longer "active" to PAGASA. JMA forecasts a minimal typhoon peaking at 70kt in 24 hours. Chacor 05:40, 2 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Prapiroon already seems to have already reached its peak before hitting China, although the JMA sees a little bit more of strengthening. Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody 21:10, 2 August (UTC)
I doubt it will strengthen any further; half of its circulation is over land already. bob rulz 04:15, 3 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]
That thing is not too far from where i'm now. It's been cloudy all day. Irfanfaiz 22:21, 3 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I don't get it; they stopped issuing advisories on Prapiroon while it was a 50 mph storm. They seem to do that a lot with typhoons. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 22:48, 3 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

The JTWC ceases advisories as soon as storms are over land and don't have a chance of reforming over water. The JMA is still issuing advisories. Chacor 23:29, 3 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

97W.INVEST[edit]

97W is up! -- RattleMan 01:28, 26 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

...and down! -- RattleMan 04:18, 26 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
...and back! This thing looks like a tropical depression. Bah, the West Pacific confuses me...bob rulz 03:14, 31 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Invest is gone again - 67.46.0.13 17:14, 31 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

98W.INVEST[edit]

There's a 98W up on the Navy site. --Coredesat talk. ^_^ 05:59, 31 July 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC text: 

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 142.1E
HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO A POSITION NEAR 8.4N 141.3E, APPROXIMATELY
200 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. THIS RELOCATION COINCIDES WITH IMPROVED
SATELLITE FIX CONFIDENCE IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. THE LATEST
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGES DEPICT A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN BODY OF CONVECTION. WHILE A
010057Z AMSU-B PASS DOES NOT DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED LLCC, IT REVEALS
A STRONG CONVERGENT AXIS OF WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING CIRCULATION CENTER. SURFACE PRESSURE
TRENDS FROM YAP INDICATE A 24-HOUR PRESSURE FALL OF NEARLY TWO MILLIBARS.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
DUE TO DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. GIVEN THE OBSERVED PRESSURE FALLS AT YAP AND FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

Chacor 07:44, 1 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It does look a bit better than it did a few hours ago. The circulation has tightened and convection has increased. bob rulz 09:01, 1 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Gone. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 14:29, 5 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

0803/2330Z JTWC APBW has this as a POOR area now... 

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.6N
136.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 133.5E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS PULSING
CONVECTION ON THE NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERIES OF
A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

Chacor 03:04, 4 August 2006 (UTC)[reply]

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