Talk:2006 Pacific typhoon season/October

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October[edit]

Week 1[edit]

96W.INVEST[edit]

There's a 96W near 14.3N 146.3E. There's a TCFA graphic there, but it's not related to this system (the position is wrong). --Coredesat (talk) 02:19, 2 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

T0617 RUMBIA (20W)[edit]

97W.INVEST[edit]

97W at 15.6N 154.1E. -- RattleMan 22:38, 2 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JMA TD (30 knots)[edit]

Tropical Depression at 18.5N 152.5E 998 Hpa -- グリフオーザー 01:08, 3 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA AT 19.4N 154.5E SOUTH OF MINAMITORISIMA ALMOST STATIONARY. - SpLoT 08:24, 3 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 994 HPA AT 20.0N 153.8E SOUTH OF MINAMITORISIMA 30 KT MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. - SpLoT 09:38, 3 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

TS0617 RUMBIA[edit]

TS Rumbia from JMA. Still FAIR from JTWC. – Chacor 13:33, 3 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Just saw tropical cyclone forcasts, possible Fujiwhara interaction? - SpLoT 16:01, 3 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Definitely possible, since Bebinca has quite a large circulation and may attract Rumbia... =P I remember looking at one of ECMWF's forecast tracks, it showed one big TC, probably Bebinca, engulfing the smaller one, probably Rumbia... Interesting, this. Typhoonchaser 16:53, 3 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

TCFA. – Chacor 17:12, 3 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Is October the peak of the Pacific typhoon season? --IrfanFaiz 00:35, 4 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Normally it should be September (?) But we've had so little storms this year, we need a consolation prize :) Typhoonchaser 03:33, 4 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

SSD is stating sub-tropical (ST2.5/2.5 Rumbia) - グリフオーザー 07:09, 4 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

20W.NONAME[edit]

TD20W on NRL. -- RattleMan 19:47, 4 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

98W.INVEST[edit]

98W at 18.6N 132.4E. -- RattleMan 09:34, 3 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Seemed to be part of Bebinca. Now gone off NRL. – Chacor 13:34, 3 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

21W.SOULIK[edit]

99W.INVEST[edit]

10.3N 169.6E -- グリフオーザー 17:38, 5 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JMA has it as low pressure area as of 00Z. - SpLoT 08:29, 6 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
JTWC 06Z: 10.4N 168.9E, 130 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN, 15-20 kt, 1006 mB - Poor. - SpLoT 08:40, 6 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
JMA 00Z: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 07N 164E ALMOST STATIONARY. - SpLoT 03:02, 7 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
JTWC 06 am zulu: 9.8N 167.7E, APPROXIMATELY 65 NM NORTH OF KWAJALEIN, 15-20 knots, 1005mb upgraded to fair. - グリフオーザー 05:52, 7 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
TCFA issued. – Chacor 17:23, 8 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
JMA TD (<30 kt)[edit]
JMA Tropical Depression - グリフオーザー 20:39, 8 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
JTWC 21W.NONAME assigned soon (hidden on NRL page). - グリフオーザー 00:48, 9 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
21W.NONAME[edit]

TD21W on NRL now. -- RattleMan 02:13, 9 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JMA TD (30 kt)[edit]

"TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 14.9N 157.5E SEA NORTH OF TRUKS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER." -- RattleMan 03:44, 9 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

TS 21W[edit]

Tropical storm at 15Z by JTWC - SpLoT 15:26, 9 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Storm Soulik[edit]

NRL hasn't updated yet, but it's now Soulik in JMA's 1800Z advisory. --Coredesat (talk) 19:12, 9 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Severe Tropical Storm Soulik[edit]

STS Soulik from JMA some time ago. Should be typhoon within 24h. - SpLoT 09:02, 12 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Typhoon Soulik[edit]

TY Soulik from JMA some time ago. -- RattleMan 22:38, 12 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

10 typhoons isn't even close to average.~H-U-R-R-I-C-A-N-E-C-R-A-Z-E-3-2-M-I-T-C-H-A-Z-E-N-I-A~ 16:58, 13 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

STS by JMA, dead by JTWC. - SpLoT 02:26, 16 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Week 2[edit]

90W.INVEST[edit]

13N 144E LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA MOVING WEST SLOWLY - グリフオーザー 05:51, 8 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

12Z: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 16N 134E WEST SLOWLY. - SpLoT 15:25, 9 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

PAGASA TD Ompong (91W)[edit]

91W.INVEST[edit]

6pm Zulu - LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 17N 135E WEST 15 KTS - グリフオーザー 23:35, 10 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

91W."OMPONG"[edit]

Upgraded to TD Ompong by PAGASA. --Coredesat 06:35, 12 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Gone from JMA's weather chart. It's still being carried by PAGASA. --Coredesat 22:18, 12 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Last advisory from PAGASA. --Coredesat 03:48, 13 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

92W.INVEST[edit]

Around 14.5N 142.3E. -- RattleMan 06:26, 14 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Possibly southern remnant of Soulik. - SpLoT 02:26, 16 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

06Z JMA: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 17N 138E ALMOST STATIONARY. - SpLoT 13:24, 16 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

00Z JMA: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 20N 141E NNE SLOWLY. - SpLoT 05:51, 17 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC - no longer suspected for tropical development -- グリフオーザー 00:18, 18 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

18Z JMA: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 22N 140E NNE SLOWLY. - SpLoT 03:25, 18 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Gone from NRL. -- RattleMan 03:31, 18 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

93W.INVEST[edit]

Around 8N 160E. -- RattleMan 06:26, 14 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

12Z JMA: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 06N 160E ALMOST STATIONARY.

12Z JTWC: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 8.0N 155.2E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST OF CHUUK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 16 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR. - SpLoT 04:49, 16 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

18Z JMA: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 07N 155E ALMOST STATIONARY. - SpLoT 02:27, 16 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

06Z JMA: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 07N 154E ALMOST STATIONARY. - SpLoT 13:24, 16 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC - area of suspected development near Guam has dissipated. -- グリフオーザー 00:19, 18 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 20.5N 142.0E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM. CENTER SHOWS A LLC DEVELOPING, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH 1007 MB PRESSURE. DEVELOPMENT OF A CYCLONE IS POOR. - グリフオーザー 06:04, 20 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC 17Z: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 142.0E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. - SpLoT / (talk) 04:40, 21 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JMA TD (<30 kt)[edit]

JMA 00Z: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1014 HPA AT 24N 141E NORTH 10 KT. Interestingly, it's 1014 hPa. - SpLoT / (talk) 04:40, 21 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

No more TD, back to low pressure area on JMA. LOW PRESSURE AREA 1014 HPA NEAR 25N 139E WNW 10 KT. - SpLoT / (talk) 03:16, 22 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Gone. - SpLoT / (talk) 04:52, 24 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Week 3[edit]

94W.INVEST[edit]

Just appeared, near 7.5N 170.5E. --Coredesat 03:48, 19 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JMA 12am UTC - LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 07N 170E ALMOST STATIONARY - グリフオーザー 05:24, 19 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
JMA 06Z - LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 06N 170E ALMOST STATIONARY. - SpLoT 09:28, 19 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JMA 00Z - LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 06N 167E WEST SLOWLY. - SpLoT / (talk) 04:33, 21 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Uh... This is the Northern Hem, not the Southern Hem (re JTWC). – Chacor 04:36, 21 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Oops. Removed :S - SpLoT / (talk) 04:41, 21 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

00Z JMA: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 07N 159E ALMOST STATIONARY. - SpLoT / (talk) 03:17, 22 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Gone. - SpLoT / (talk) 04:52, 24 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Week 4[edit]

95W.INVEST[edit]

22/0233 UTC 16.2N 113.3E T1.0/1.0 95W -- VOFFA

New 95W at 15.2N 136.1E, 15kts, 1006mb. -- RattleMan 19:35, 22 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 15.2N 133.1E, APPROXIMATELY 710 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING TUTT CELL EAST OF LUZON, WHICH IS PROVIDING IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAIR DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 16 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

JMA: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 11N 134E WEST SLOWLY. - SpLoT / (talk) 04:52, 24 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Gone from the NRL... — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 19:38, 26 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

22W.CIMARON[edit]

96W.INVEST[edit]

Near 13N 149E.

JMA: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 09N 147E WEST SLOWLY. - SpLoT / (talk) 04:52, 24 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JMA TD (30 kt)[edit]

JMA: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 12N 136E WEST 10 KT. Insanephantom 11:21, 26 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC 26 Oct 06Z: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 143.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 137.7E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM NORTH OF YAP. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 251600Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL INCREASED CONVECTION OVER A TIGHTENING LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAVOR- ABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR. - SpLoT / (talk) 11:51, 26 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

TCFA issued now by JTWC. Insanephantom 14:03, 26 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JMA full TD. Expected to become TS in 24 hr. – Chacor 14:16, 26 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Add to article? - SpLoT / (talk) 15:44, 26 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Not until any other agency picks it up, because there are plenty of JMA TDs that aren't monitored by anyone else that aren't in the article. – Chacor 15:47, 26 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
22W.NONAME[edit]

The NRL has upgraded 96W to 22W.NONAME. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 19:38, 26 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Upgraded to TS 22W by JTWC. -- RattleMan 02:39, 27 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Depression Paeng[edit]
PAGASA tropical depression Paeng -- グリフオーザー 03:35, 27 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Tropical Storm Cimaron[edit]

Right, the 19th named storm of the year. – Chacor 06:59, 27 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Severe Tropical Storm Cimaron[edit]

And now a STS from the JMA. The JMA is forecasting landfall in Luzon as a 75 kt typhoon. --Coredesat 19:18, 27 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Typhoon Cimaron[edit]

Typhoon from both agencies. - SpLoT / (talk) 09:52, 28 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Will hit Luzon north of Manila. - SpLoT / (talk) 10:03, 28 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Nice eye. 90 knots according to NRL. Hurricanehink (talk) 15:09, 28 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
90 knots by the JTWC at 281500.Mitchazenia V5.0 15:46, 28 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
105 knots by JTWC at 282100 expected to become 115 knots in 12 hours. -- グリフオーザー 21:06, 28 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Holy crap this storm looks intense! I have a hard time believing that this isn't close to category 5 intensity. Let's just hope it weakens before it hits the Philippines. It's got perfect outflow, a very clear, definitive eye; this is a classic storm. bob rulz 00:33, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
NRL currently reads 120 knots, JMA 12am advisory had the storm go from 85 knots to 100 knots in 4 hours. -- グリフオーザー 01:55, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Compare. JMA 28/00Z - 55 kt, 985 hPa. JMA 29/00Z - 100 kt, 920 hPa. – Chacor 02:02, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Holy Cow!!! Cimaron looks like a Category 5 or a clone of Ioke, lets just hope nothing bad can haapen from Cimaron. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 02:20, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

It's already beaten the intensity forecasts, just like Xangsane did. Fortunately, I don't think the north of Luzon is very densely populated (unless someone can correct me). Pobbie Rarr 02:28, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

The eastern coast of Luzon isn't very populated, which is why Xangsane did relatively little damage. bob rulz 03:26, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
It looks like it's starting to weaken now. bob rulz 03:35, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Actually, NRL now has it at 130kt/910mb. Which would make it a super typhoon (gulp). Pobbie Rarr 04:44, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Storm Name Basin[1] Minimum pressure[2] Maximum winds[3]
Yagi WP 910 110
Cimaron WP 910 105
Ioke CP/WP 920 140/105
Shanshan WP 925 100
Saomai WP 925 95
Ewiniar WP 930 100
Chanchu WP 930 95
Xavier SP 930 95
Daniel EP 933 130
Xangsane WP 940 90
John EP 948 115
Lane EP 952 110
Bud EP 953 110
Helene AT 954 110
Mala NIO 954 100
Ileana EP 955 105
Gordon AT 955 105
Kaemi WP 960 80
Soulik WP 960 75
Paul EP 965 95
Hector EP 966 95
Prapiroon WP 970 65
Bilis WP 970 60
Florence AT 972 80
Maria WP 975 60
Mukda NIO 980[4] 60[5]
Wukong WP 980 45
Carlotta EP 981 75
Bebinca WP 982 40
Isaac AT 985 75
Kristy EP 985 70
Bopha WP 985 50
Rumbia WP 985 45
Ernesto AT 987 65
Emilia EP 989 60
Sonamu WP 992 40
Alberto AT 995 60
Jelawat WP 996 40
Miriam EP 999 40
Beryl AT 1000 50
Debby AT 1000 45
Norman EP 1000 45
Fabio EP 1000 45
Olivia EP 1000 40
Chris AT 1001 55
Gilma EP 1004 35
Aletta EP 1005 40
  1. ^ Where WP is Western North Pacific, CP is Central North Pacific, EP is Eastern North Pacific, SP is South Pacific, NIO is North Indian Ocean and AT is Atlantic
  2. ^ hPa or mbar, as given by RSMC or TCWC
  3. ^ In knots, as given by RSMC or TCWC. This may make comparisons based on wind speed seem incorrect, due to the difference in measurement.
  4. ^ ATCF value, no RSMC value available
  5. ^ JTWC value, no RSMC value available

– Chacor 05:22, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

When I went to sleep, it was at 965 hPa. Now it's 910 hPa. This storm is really deepening quickly (or rapidly). Forecasted 130 kt by 09Z. - SpLoT / (talk) 05:48, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

NRL at 0630Z says 140 kt, 898 mbar. – Chacor 07:34, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Shit, so much for that weakening...it must've been going through a mini eyewall replacement cycle when I looked at it or something...or maybe I was going crazy. But damn this storm is amazing!! It's down to 898mb! bob rulz 09:25, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Super Typhoon 22W (Cimaron)[edit]

Super Typhoon at 09Z from JTWC. - SpLoT / (talk) 09:31, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

A couple of recent satellite intensity bulletins have suggested the possibility of this storm being a T8.0/8.0 (170 knots, 858 mbar), which would make this a new world record. However, I highly doubt JMA will recognise this. – Chacor 10:10, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
User:Chacor/Sandbox/Cimaron 0619. – Chacor 10:10, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Darn, you beat me to making a sandbox article. íslenskur fellibylur #12 (samtal) 13:47, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
This could be the storm of 2006 for the world at this rate... CrazyC83 15:06, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Steadied at 140 kts for two warnings, shouldn't be able to continue to intensify as it is over the hilly terrain of Luzon now... Typhoonchaser 15:30, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
The wind speed of 170 knots (195 mph) would actually tie Sally & Opal of 1964.Mitchazenia V5.0 16:14, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
It's made landfall. Let's just hope that since it hit a sparsely-populated area that it will do relatively little damage. bob rulz 17:26, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
It's reminiscent of Typhoon Imbudo and Typhoon Zeb. —Cuiviénen 18:09, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Wikinews has related news:

Fortunately, the storm seems to have only killed one person, but I thought it would have killed more. íslenskur fellibylur #12 (samtal) 22:24, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Well down to 115 knots (135 mph) already at 2100.Mitchazenia V5.0 22:29, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Forecasts point towards gradual strengthening, but not to cat5 again, slamming into Vietnam (near Da Nang) at about 75kt. - SpLoT / (talk) 15:48, 30 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Holy @#$&%*@#!!! I never knew Cimaron made landfall at Category 5, i thought it was rather like Xangsane aroung cat 3 or 4. Lets just hope Vietman dosen't get beaten up by a mass of swirling clouds. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 05:17, 31 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Now it looks a lot like Chanchu when it was in the S. China Sea becoming ex-tropical, or may Camiron is going to the same fate. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 06:38, 31 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Nah, I don't think Cimaron will become extratropical... it's forecast to move to Vietnam and weaken because of the northeast monsoon (and land effects). Oh by the way, HKO hoisted Standby Signal No. 1 at 2:20 pm. Typhoonchaser 07:14, 31 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Recurve, read JTWC warning. Forecast for Hainan or Southern China, west of Hong Kong. Intensifying slightly. - SpLoT / (talk) 14:20, 31 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Warning #20's a huge deviation from the earlier warnings! This is especially interesting for Hong Kongers like me, we haven't had a No. 8 for ages... Typhoonchaser 15:57, 31 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]
JTWC forecasts direct hit on Hong Kong as TS. Wanna add a HKO link now? - SpLoT / (talk) 13:13, 1 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]
HKO link should be added any time TC Signal 1 is hoisted. Currently HK still has Signal 1 lifted, but HKO doesn't seem to think there will be a direct hit. However, with the size of this storm, it is still very likely that HK will experience at least TS-force winds. – Chacor 13:20, 1 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Looking at HKO and JTWC forecasts, it looks like there is a rather high probability for gale-force winds indeed... We might as well get our first signal 8 this year in November! However HKO are saying that the chance for hoisting the strong wind signal 3 early this morning (Thursday HKT) is low - it's moving very slowly. Typhoonchaser 16:30, 1 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC now forecasts it to move very slowly and gradually dissipate. I highly doubt signal 8 in Hong Kong will be required now, maybe not even signal 3 if JTWC's scenario occurs. Insanephantom 02:34, 2 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Very complicated ridging, might move northeast and strengthen or southwest and weaken. Landfall not predicted at all. Hong Kong is safe. - SpLoT / (talk) 08:14, 2 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Downgraded to JMA STS. Weakening rapidly, JTWC predicts dissipation over water at TAU 36. Probably will not make any landfall. Moving southwest. - SpLoT / (talk) 16:04, 2 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

This is a really interesting storm, latest intensity - JTWC says it's 45 kts and JMA says it's 55 kts - both figures as of 6 am UTC. Any reasons for this huge difference? JMA is 10-min-sustained, too... JTWC forecasts it to weaken into an LPA within 2 days, JMA still gives it 40 kts after 72 hours... Typhoonchaser 09:03, 3 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

On FNMOC's satellite image, it says Cimaron is now only 35 kts now. Why should JTWC continue to give a lower strength than JMA, when JTWC is 1-min standard sustained and JMA is 10-min? Insanephantom 14:07, 3 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Now JMA TS, JTWC TD. Dissipating. - SpLoT / (talk) 06:00, 4 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Dead from JTWC. JMA TS. This should be all. - SpLoT / (talk) 14:27, 4 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Finally a TD from JMA, so I imagine that will be all. :) --Coredesat 00:49, 6 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Remnants west of central Vietnam. - SpLoT / (talk) 03:19, 7 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JMA 00Z as LPA 1010 hPa 11N 111E, SW @ 10kt - SpLoT / (talk) 03:21, 7 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Gone from the NRL. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 03:12, 9 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

97W.INVEST[edit]

East of Philippines 16N 123E. - SpLoT / (talk) 11:55, 26 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Removed from NRL -- グリフオーザー 21:06, 28 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

98W.INVEST[edit]

Another invest for you, near 2N 160E. Most of the southern half of this system is south of the Equator... --Coredesat 19:21, 27 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Closer to 7N 147E now. - SpLoT / (talk) 06:01, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

And this from JMA at 00Z: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 06N 147E WEST SLOWLY. - SpLoT / (talk) 06:02, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JMA 06Z: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 06N 147E ALMOST STATIONARY. - SpLoT / (talk) 09:32, 29 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.6N 143.7E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN AREA OF CONVECTION PERSISTING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A 012044Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE ALSO DEPICTED AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE LARGE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, AND IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR. - SpLoT / (talk) 08:15, 2 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JMA 06Z: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 07N 141E ALMOST STATIONARY. - SpLoT / (talk) 14:00, 2 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC: as of 100am UTC Maximum sustained winds at 15 to 20 knots with a center pressure of 1005 mb. The potential for development of a significate tropical cyclone within 24 hours has been upgraded to fair. -- グリフオーザー 05:28, 3 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JMA 12Z: Low pressure area 1010 hPa 07N 140E stationary. - SpLoT / (talk) 15:27, 3 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Reported as dissipated by JTWC, although NRL is still carrying it. 06N 142E according to JMA. - SpLoT / (talk) 06:03, 4 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Gone. – Chacor 13:24, 4 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Week 5[edit]

99W.INVEST[edit]

about the same area 97W was, between Vietnam and Philippines.

JMA 12am - LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 10N 113E WSW SLOWLY.

-- グリフオーザー 03:41, 30 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

No, not the same. This is west of Philippines, southwest of Cimaron. Peculair location, moving south too.

JTWC 06Z: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.0N 109.0E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 300307Z AMSU IMAGE REVEAL FLARING CONVECTION NEAR AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

JMA 12Z: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 10N 111E WSW SLOWLY. - SpLoT / (talk) 15:47, 30 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Gone from NRL, JTWC reports dissipated, JMA reports low pressure area 1006 hPa 11N 114E. It's no longer being shoved to the south likely due to Cimaron's recurving. - SpLoT / (talk) 14:18, 31 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

23W.CHEBI[edit]

90W/90C.INVEST[edit]

90W (continuation of 90C) now in the WPac. – Chacor 13:01, 31 October 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JMA: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 07N 168E ALMOST STATIONARY.

JTWC: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.5N 167.5E, APPROXIMATELY 615 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. - SpLoT / (talk) 08:16, 2 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JMA 06Z: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 07N 167E WEST 10 KT. - SpLoT / (talk) 14:01, 2 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC: as of 100am UTC - Convection near Pohnpei island. Imagery shows a broad convection low level circulation. Maximum sustained winds are 10 to 15 knots with a center pressure of 1006 mb development of a significate tropical cyclone within 24 hours is poor. -- グリフオーザー 05:31, 3 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JMA 12Z: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 08N 163E ALMOST STATIONARY. - SpLoT / (talk) 15:26, 3 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Potential development of significant tropical cyclone remains poor by JTWC. JMA: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 07N 161E WSW SLOWLY. - SpLoT / (talk) 06:04, 4 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JMA 18Z: low pressure area 1006 hPa 10N 155E west slowly. - SpLoT / (talk) 23:43, 5 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC 6 Nov 0600: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 157.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 152.8E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST OF SAIPAN. ELONGATED 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. PDSTC: POOR. - SpLoT / (talk) 03:26, 7 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC 7 Nov 0600: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 152.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 144.7E, APPROXIMATELY 90 NM NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN. POORLY-ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A POSSIBLE DEVELOPING LLCC. UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. PDSTC: POOR.

JMA 0600: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 13N 144E WNW 15 KT. - SpLoT / (talk) 14:08, 7 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC 8 Nov 0130: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 144.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 137.9E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. INCREASED CONVECTION OVER LLCC. FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. PDSTC: FAIR.

JMA 0000: LPA 1010 hPa 14N 140E, WNW @ 10kt.- SpLoT / (talk) 02:45, 8 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JMA TD[edit]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 16N 136E WNW SLOWLY.

Not yet expected to become a TS. – Chacor 08:33, 8 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC has issued a TCFA. – Chacor 11:11, 8 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Tropical Depression Queenie[edit]

The active low pressure area over east of Luzon has developed into Tropical Depression and was named "QUEENIE". The track has it heading towards Taiwan on the first alert bulletin. -- グリフオーザー 00:59, 9 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

23W.NONAME[edit]

The NRL has 23W.NONAME. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 02:34, 9 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Depression 23W[edit]

JTWC confirms. -- RattleMan 02:52, 9 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Storm Chebi[edit]

TS from JMA. - SpLoT / (talk) 13:47, 9 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Severe Tropical Storm Chebi[edit]

STS from JMA -- グリフオーザー 01:04, 10 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JMA calling for a 70 kt landfall, and AFWA reports that Chebi has broken the Dvorak constraints: 13A/ PBO TCB/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .60 ON LOG10 SPIRAL. FT BASED ON DT. PT AND MET AGREE. CONSTRAINTS BROKEN DUE TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE STORM. --Coredesat 02:55, 10 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Predictions JTWC typhoon by 1500 10 Nov, JMA typhoon by 0000 11 Nov. Landfall predicted at Isabela-Aurora area, similar to Cimaron. - SpLoT / (talk) 03:31, 10 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Typhoon Chebi[edit]

How wrong they both were. To compare: JTWC 03Z 55 kt/984mbar, NRL 0630Z 115kt/927mbar; JMA 03Z 55 kt/985 hPa, JMA 06Z 95kt/945 hPa. – Chacor 07:17, 10 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

surprised PAGASA hasn't posted a special advisory with this dangerous situation. -- グリフオーザー 07:33, 10 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Chebi is still some distance away from the Philippines. It's not too late if they raise the signal No.3 at 5pm as signal No.3 means winds of greater than 100 kph up to 185 kph may be expected in 18 hours.Momoko 07:57, 10 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]
The concern here will probably be whether this gets strong enough to be the second typhoon in a row to force Storm Signal 4. – Chacor 07:59, 10 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

About the constraints, not only AFWA, JTWC also stated that constraints were borken.(JTWC: T6.0/6.0/D4.0/24HRS STT: D2.5/06HRS, AFWA: T6.5/6.5/D4.0/24HRS/STT: D3.0/06HRS)Momoko 08:00, 10 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I want to know if developing 2.5 or 3.0 T numbers in 6 hours is unprecedented. If not, when did it happen before?Momoko 08:17, 10 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Oh good grief, I can't believe Chebi already formed an eye and is now a typhoon. What happened to its TS and STS era? God the time is so super fast. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 08:39, 10 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

This rapid deepening is so amazing! 6 hours ago it was a struggling tropical storm not expected to intensify very much until it's off the coast of Luzon, and now it's already a Cat 3/Cat 4 equivalent typhoon! Typhoonchaser 09:11, 10 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Probable super typhoon in 12h, forecasts now predicting landfall south of where Cimaron came ashore, but not a direct hit on Manila like Xangsane. Also 2nd landfall south of Hue as typhoon. - SpLoT / (talk) 11:16, 10 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Chebi is threatening to do some major damage. Sandbox article started, but if like Cimaron it fizzles out, we'll just work on slowly building it up. – Chacor 12:30, 10 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Damn, the Philippines just can't catch a break this year. bob rulz 20:26, 10 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Most seasons are like that. It is rare not to have seasons without significant impact in the Philippines. CrazyC83 23:40, 11 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]
According to the NRL satellite images, I think Chebi already landfall in the Philippines while at Category 3 or 4. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 02:57, 11 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Landfall on Casiguran, Aurora circa 0030 UTC. - SpLoT / (talk) 04:51, 11 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Weakening, accelerating west due to dry air entrainment and vertical wind shear. Predicted to turn northwards towards Hainan or Gulf of Tonkin and make landfall in Guangxi as minimal TS or TD. - SpLoT / (talk) 04:50, 12 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Now the JTWC doubts that it will make any more landfalls. The South China Sea must have turned hostile since Xangsane left the house. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 07:27, 12 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC TS, JMA TS. Flaring convection seems to be north of storm center. The two typhoon centres seem to be taking different centers. JTWC predicts landfall on Hainan as TS, degen. into TD in Gulf of Tonkin. May or may not make second landfall. JMA predicts TD by 15 Nov 12Z. - SpLoT / (talk) 15:12, 13 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Hmmm, seems like even the flaring convection is weakening a little, from the latest imagery on the CWB satellite. But it's gone through many of these weakening-strengthening cycles, I don't see why it can't do it again, unless shear increases dramatically or there is suddenly more dry air... typhoonchaser 16:37, 13 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Now down to 40 mph by both JMA and JTWC. They both predict Chebi to be completely dead by the next 24 hours. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 04:27, 14 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]
Now all of its convection is gone. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 07:33, 14 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Landfall on Hainan in 12-24h. Dead from JMA as TD. Minimal TS from JTWC. - SpLoT / (talk) 07:39, 14 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Gone from the JTWC too. Now its nothing except for one or two thin spiral bands of Chebi's remains, per NRL pictures. Oh well, I guess that ends the story. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 04:20, 15 November 2006 (UTC)[reply]
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