Talk:List of recessions in the United Kingdom

Problems

UK quarterly GDP figures are very jerky/noisy before 1988.

before 1919

The UK was set up in 1801, not in 1919. Where are the figures for the earlier period? —Preceding unsigned comment added by 222.172.176.29 (talk) 12:22, 27 December 2008 (UTC)

"set up"? —Preceding unsigned comment added by 195.200.115.170 (talk) 13:25, 18 February 2009 (UTC)

1956-1958

The table doesn't include the technical recesssions in 1956 (GDP -0.5% over 2 quarters) and 1957 (-0.8% over 2 quarters). Mid 1957 to mid 1958 GDP fell 1.7%. Rod57 (talk) 16:10, 17 November 2008 (UTC)

Interesting comment on the 'official'/usual definition of a recession at [1]. Rod57 (talk) 00:30, 11 February 2009 (UTC)

1973-1975

In the first 3 Qs of the 73-74 recession GDP fell 3.5%, then it rose 2% in 2 Qs, and then fell 2.4% in the next 3 Qs for a total fall of about 3.9% in 8 quarters (2 years mid 73 to mid 75). Rod57 (talk) 16:10, 17 November 2008 (UTC)

Actually, ONS gives the following figures for these years: 1973 Q1 5.3 % growth; 1973 Q2 0.4 ; 1973 Q3 -0.8; 1973 Q4 -0.2; 1974 Q1 -2.4; 1974 Q2 1.9; 1974 Q3 1; 1974 Q4 -1.3; 1975 Q1 0.5; 1975 Q2 -1.7; 1975 Q3 -0.2; 1975 Q4 1.3

Negative Qs for 1973-1976 therefore only amounts to 6, not 8. The total growth for the period 1973 Q1 to 1975 Q4 is actually a growth of +3.8 percentage points. If we count 1973 Q3 to 1975 Q3 (both included), however, there is a fall of 3.2 percentage point. FESTM (talk) 17:57, 17 February 2009 (UTC)

Thanks for that. I'll go back and check my sources. Rod57 (talk) 13:01, 25 March 2009 (UTC)

1980-1981

The total GDP fall of 6.1% includes 1.5% from the last half of 1979. 1979 3Q:-2.5%, 4Q:+1%. 1980:-0.8%, -1.8%, -0.3%, -1.2%. 1981 1Q -0.5% Rod57(talk) November 2008 (UTC)

(Bank of England Feb 2009 Inflation report p20 [misleadingly] only counts the 4.6% from start of 1980) Rod57 (talk) 00:36, 15 February 2009 (UTC)

1990-1992

Total GDP fall of 2.5% (BoE). Quarterly figures (approx %) : 1990:Q3=-1.3, Q4=-0.6, 1991:-0.1, -0.3, -0.4, +0.1 Rod57 (talk) 11:52, 23 January 2009 (UTC)

Guys, check eurostat page, there was no decrease in GDP in early 90s! the figures in this page are wrong! —Preceding unsigned comment added by 155.136.80.81 (talk) 16:22, 20 October 2009 (UTC)

see for yourself http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/national_accounts/data/database

I disagree! There was a recession in the early nineties! If you look at the data series IHYQ which is Gross Domestic Product: Quarter on Quarter growth: Seasonally adjusted ,Constant 2006 prices, Updated on 28/ 6/2011 on the ONS website you will see it was

1990 Q3 -1.2 1990 Q4 -0.6 1991 Q1 -0.1 1991 Q2 -0.3 1991 Q3 -0.4 This is a chained volume measure.

It also shows 2008 Q2 -0.3 2008 Q3 -0.9 2008 Q4 -2.1 2009 Q1 -2.2 2009 Q2 -0.8 2009 Q3 -0.3

(http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/TSDdownload1.asp) from UK Economic Accounts. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 130.88.57.112 (talk) 13:36, 2 August 2011 (UTC)

Late 2000s recession

official figures

(Feb 09) ONS figures : 2008:Q2 = -0.02%, Q3 = -0.7%, Q4 = -1.5% (worst since 2Q 1980)

ONS confirms -1.5% GDP in Q4 2008: UK officially in recession. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7846266.stm LondonStatto (talk) 09:43, 23 January 2009 (UTC)

From ONS (http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/gdp0109.pdf): GDP at Q2 2008 = 112.7; at Q4 = 110.3; change = -2.4; 100*-2.4/112.7 = -2.1%. LondonStatto (talk) 09:56, 23 January 2009 (UTC)

2008Q4 revised 27-Mar-2009 to -1.6% Rod57

24-Apr-09 : ONS report 2009Q1 GDP down 1.9% Rod57 (talk) 12:07, 24 April 2009 (UTC)

Update to 2009Q2:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/gdp0709.pdf
Peak was 2008Q1 - 107.2
Latest figure 101.1
Five quarter recession with decline of (107.2-101.1)/107.2 = 5.7%
LondonStatto (talk) 09:05, 24 July 2009 (UTC)

Update to 2009Q3:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/gdp1009.pdf
Peak was 2008Q1 - 107.0
Latest figure 100.6
Six quarter recession with decline of (107.0-100.6)/107.0 = 6.0%
LondonStatto (talk) 20:19, 23 October 2009 (UTC)

New recalculated figures by ONS in Oct 2011 give total depth of recession as 7.1%, and that in Oct 2011 GDP is still 4.4% down from peak in March 2008. [Daily Telegraph. 6 Oct 2011]. - Rod57 (talk) 14:42, 10 October 2011 (UTC)

Forecasts

E&Y Item club forecast -2.7% in 2009 and -0.5% in 2010, so total GDP drop could be over 5% Rod57 (talk) 12:01, 23 January 2009 (UTC)

That would leave GDP at end 2010 as 110.3*0.973*0.995 = 106.8, which is 5.9/112.7 = 5.2% down from the GDP peak. Of course, that measures the depth of the recession only if there's no growth in any of the next eight quarters. Do you have a linkable source? LondonStatto (talk) 11:47, 24 January 2009 (UTC)

[2] provides a link to [3] Rod57 (talk) 23:29, 10 February 2009 (UTC)

IMF Jan 2009 forecast for 2009 : UK GDP to decline by 2.8% [4]

CBI Feb 2009 Economic forecast : GDP to fall 3.3% in 2009. [5] Rod57 (talk) 13:04, 16 February 2009 (UTC)

March 2009 UK Treasury compilation of independent forecasts : median prediction of UK GDP to fall 3.1% in 2009. [6] Rod57 (talk) 10:59, 23 March 2009 (UTC)

March 2009 leak of next IMF forecast : UK GDP to fall 3.8% in 2009, and 0.2% in 2010. [7] Rod57 (talk) 10:32, 23 March 2009 (UTC)

June 2009 : OECD predicts UK GDP will contract by 4.3% in 2009 (and be flat in 2010) Rod57 (talk) 10:50, 24 June 2009 (UTC)

References

• Index of treasury forecast compilations

Why include Canadian depression

Table has : "Upper, Lower Canada depression 1857–62" - Looks like a mistake, to be removed ? - Rod57 (talk) 02:40, 16 March 2013 (UTC)

Did a douple dip recession exist?

In the article, I propose we reinstate that a douple dip recession took place in UK during the three quarters Q4‑2011 until Q2‑2012. Because we have hard facts to proof it, despite the opposite story from this BBC article claiming that we had the UK double-dip recession revised away. When playing the attached video clip to the BBC article, with the ONS chief economist (Joe Grice), he however clearly state that Q1/2012 featured minus zero growth, and on the question whether or not there was a "douple dip recession", he answered: "Strictly speaking output did fall in that first quarter 2012, but we are talking about handfuls of million of pounds that are really of no statistical or economic significance".

This mean, that from a strictly mathematical point of view the revised figures still display that UK experienced a douple dip recession. For such episodes (a superficial recession which is not severe enough to classify as a full blown hard hitting recession; which can be claimed whenever qoq declines is less than 0.5%), we in Denmark use the term a technical recession. To be honest, I believe the BBC journalist lost his sense of reality, when concluding the "douple dip recession" got revised away, because it did not. The correct story is that you rightfully can call it a "technical recession", but this does not allow journalists completely to write it off as being a recession. Strictly speaking its still a technical douple dip recession. The hard unrounded figures from ONS (published on 23 Aug 2013) does not lie, and show this qoq growth rates:

• Q4-2011 = ‑0.11%
• Q1-2012 = ‑0.01%
• Q2-2012 = ‑0.50%

The 3 consecutive quarters with negative qoq seasonal adjusted real GDP growth, satisfy the criteria of being a technical recession! Danish Expert (talk) 17:24, 14 October 2013 (UTC)

Saved by the bell. The latest revised figures from ONS (published on 9 Oct 2013) show these qoq growth rates:

• Q4-2011 = ‑0.1061%
• Q1-2012 = 0.0000%
• Q2-2012 = ‑0.4598%

So now its correct to claim there was no "douple dip recession", based on the latest 9 Oct 2013 data. But its straight at the tipping point, so we shall keep checking each quarter in the future how ONS will revise all the backdated figures! Danish Expert (talk) 18:20, 14 October 2013 (UTC)

The latest revised data published on 20 December 2013 by Eurostat and ONS, however now again show the "Double Dip recession" did occure in Q4-2011 to Q2-2012, with three consequtive quarters having a negative growth rate:

• Q4-2011 = ‑0.11%
• Q1-2012 = ‑0.04%
• Q2-2012 = ‑0.42%

Today I have updated the recession list accordingly. Danish Expert (talk) 15:11, 11 January 2014 (UTC)

I think this should go. Unless we can source an article, ONS release, or similar that states that the double dip happened, then this looks awfully like Original Research to me. Maseybabes (talk) 19:27, 15 April 2014 (UTC)

Brexit Recession versus Euroboom in 2018

Can we compate and contrast the likely reasons for the Euroboom in 2018, and then contrast this with UK slump in 2018??

can someone prepare for this new recession, for later this year, if hard brexit goes ahead? — Preceding unsigned comment added by 87.224.32.138 (talk) 16:02, 3 July 2017 (UTC)

Too soon, see Wikipedia:What Wikipedia is not#Wikipedia is not a crystal ball. Verbcatcher (talk) 03:11, 9 December 2017 (UTC)

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BBC as a source..be careful

You have to be very careful using the BBC as source on statstics, can people stick to ONS, Reuters, Bloomberg, and perhaps papers like FT?? — Preceding unsigned comment added by 87.224.32.138 (talk) 13:29, 19 December 2018 (UTC)

The coronavirus recession needs to be updated

The BBC reported on new numbers from the ONS (now 20.1% if I remember correctly?) Ultraft (talk) 07:17, 12 August 2020 (UTC)

Did the Coronavirus recession end in just 2 quarters or 5? I assumed the recession was still ongoing? 69.244.83.111 (talk) 19:40, 30 August 2021 (UTC)