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2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine

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2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine

← 2014 November 8, 2016 (2016-11-08) 2018 →

All 2 Maine seats to the United States House of Representatives
  Majority party Minority party
 
Party Democratic Republican
Last election 1 1
Seats won 1 1
Seat change Steady Steady
Popular vote 386,627 357,447
Percentage 51.93% 48.01%
Swing Increase0.40% Increase9.51%

The 2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine were held on November 8, 2016, to elect the two U.S. representatives from the state of Maine, one from each of the state's two congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on June 14.

Overview

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Statewide

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Popular vote
Democratic
51.93%
Republican
48.01%
House seats
Democratic
50.00%
Republican
50.00%

By district

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Results of the 2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Maine by district:

District Democratic Republican Others Total Result
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
District 1 227,546 57.99% 164,569 41.94% 276 0.07% 392,391 100.0% Democratic hold
District 2 159,081 45.17% 192,878 54.77% 224 0.06% 352,183 100.0% Republican hold
Total 386,627 51.93% 357,447 48.01% 500 0.07% 744,574 100.0%

District 1

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2016 Maine's 1st congressional district election

← 2014
2018 →
 
Nominee Chellie Pingree Mark Holbrook
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 227,546 164,569
Percentage 58.0% 41.9%

U.S. Representative before election

Chellie Pingree
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Chellie Pingree
Democratic

Incumbent Democrat Chellie Pingree, who had represented the district since 2009, ran for re-election. She was re-elected with 60% of the vote in 2014. The district had a PVI of D+9.

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Results

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Democratic primary results[1]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Chellie Pingree (incumbent) 28,143 100.0
Total votes 28,143 100.0

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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  • Mark Holbrook, professional counselor[2]
Eliminated in primary
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Debate

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2016 Maine's 1st congressional district republican primary debate
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Republican
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Mark Holbrook Ande Smith
1 Jun. 7, 2016 WMTW (TV) Paul Merrill [4] P P

Results

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After a recount, Holbrook was declared the winner with a margin of 57 votes.[5]

Republican primary results[1]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mark Holbrook 10,360 50.1
Republican Ande Smith 10,303 49.9
Total votes 20,663 100.0

General election

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Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chellie
Pingree (D)
Mark
Holbrook (R)
Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire[6] September 15–20, 2016 266 LV ± 6.0% 64% 22% 2% 12%
SurveyUSA[7] September 4–10, 2016 382 LV ± 5.1% 57% 37% 7%
University of New Hampshire[8] June 15–21, 2016 248 LV ± 4.5% 56% 34% 10%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chellie
Pingree (D)
Ande
Smith (R)
University of New Hampshire[8] June 15–21, 2016 248 LV ± 4.5% 55% 34%

Endorsements

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Chellie Pingree (D)

Organizations

Results

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Maine's 1st congressional district, 2016[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Chellie Pingree (incumbent) 227,546 58.0
Republican Mark Holbrook 164,569 41.9
Libertarian James J. Bouchard (write-in) 276 0.1
Total votes 392,391 100.0
Democratic hold

District 2

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2016 Maine's 2nd congressional district election

← 2014
2018 →
 
Nominee Bruce Poliquin Emily Cain
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 192,878 159,081
Percentage 54.8% 45.2%

U.S. Representative before election

Bruce Poliquin
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Bruce Poliquin
Republican

Incumbent Republican Bruce Poliquin, who had represented the district since 2015, ran for re-election. He was elected with 47% of the vote in 2014. The district had a PVI of D+2.

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee
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Results

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Republican primary results[1]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bruce Poliquin (incumbent) 19,252 100.0
Total votes 19,252 100.0

Democratic primary

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After the 2014 election, Cain indicated she was interested in running against Poliquin in 2016.[11] In December 2014, Cain met with Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic Leader of the House of Representatives, to discuss her potential candidacy.[12] On March 3, 2015, Cain announced that she would be running for the seat.[13]

Bangor City Councilors Joe Baldacci and Ben Sprague were mentioned as potential Democratic candidates.[14] Jeff McCabe, the Majority Leader of the Maine House of Representatives, indicated that he might run against Poliquin in 2016, but later said that he would not do so.[15]

Troy Jackson, the former Majority Leader of the Maine Senate, who lost to Cain in the 2014 Democratic primary election, had said he might run as an independent candidate,[16] but he elected to run for his former Senate seat instead.[17]

Candidates

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Nominee
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Withdrawn
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Declined
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Endorsements
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Results

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Democratic primary results[1]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Emily Cain 19,003 100.0
Total votes 19,003 100

Independents

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Withdrawn

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Declined

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General election

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Debates

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Endorsements

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Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Emily
Cain (D)
Bruce
Poliquin (R)
Undecided
University of New Hampshire[25] October 20–25, 2016 341 LV ± 3.8% 43% 42% 11%
Normington Petts (D-Cain)[26] October 2–3, 2016 400 RV ± 4.9% 46% 45% 9%
University of New Hampshire[27] September 15–20, 2016 231 LV ± 6% 35% 45% 15%
SurveyUSA[28] September 4–10, 2016 397 LV ± 5% 45% 50% 6%
University of New Hampshire[8] June 15–21, 2016 227 LV ± 4.5% 40% 41% 12%

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[29] Tossup November 7, 2016
Daily Kos Elections[30] Tossup November 7, 2016
Rothenberg[31] Tossup November 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[32] Lean D (flip) November 7, 2016
RCP[33] Tossup October 31, 2016

Results

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Maine's 2nd congressional district, 2016[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bruce Poliquin (incumbent) 192,878 54.8
Democratic Emily Cain 159,081 45.2
Independent Jay Parker Dresser (write-in) 224 0.0
Total votes 352,183 100.0
Republican hold

References

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  1. ^ a b c d "Tabulations for Elections held on June 14, 2016". Maine Secretary of State. Retrieved July 22, 2016.
  2. ^ "Brunswick Republican files to challenge Pingree in 2016". November 20, 2015. Retrieved November 20, 2015.
  3. ^ "North Yarmouth attorney will try to unseat Maine's U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree - The Portland Press Herald / Maine Sunday Telegram". Pressherald.com. January 11, 2016. Retrieved July 9, 2016.
  4. ^ YouTube
  5. ^ Shepherd, Michael (June 29, 2016). "Holbrook confirmed GOP primary winner in Maine's 1st District — Politics — Bangor Daily News — BDN Maine". Bangordailynews.com. Retrieved July 9, 2016.
  6. ^ University of New Hampshire
  7. ^ SurveyUSA
  8. ^ a b c University of New Hampshire
  9. ^ a b c "Election 2016 | EqualityMaine". Archived from the original on October 4, 2016. Retrieved October 4, 2016.
  10. ^ a b "Tabulations for Elections held in 2016". Maine Secretary of State. Retrieved December 12, 2016.
  11. ^ "Democrats push for Cain vs. Poliquin 2016 rematch in Maine's 2nd District - Central Maine". Central Maine. November 15, 2014. Retrieved December 5, 2014.
  12. ^ "Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer Are Recruiting Emily Cain to Run Again". At the Races. Archived from the original on December 8, 2014. Retrieved December 5, 2014.
  13. ^ a b c d Shepherd, Michael (March 3, 2015). "Cain seeks 2016 rematch for Maine's 2nd District seat". Kennebec Journal. Retrieved March 4, 2014.
  14. ^ Michael Shepherd (January 11, 2015). "Maine's Bruce Poliquin dives into budget, energy issues". Central Maine. Retrieved January 12, 2015.
  15. ^ a b Michael Shepherd (February 4, 2015). "Skowhegan's McCabe says he won't run for Congress in 2016". Central Maine. Retrieved February 7, 2015.
  16. ^ a b "What kind of a congressman will Maine's Bruce Poliquin be? - Central Maine". Central Maine. November 9, 2014. Retrieved December 5, 2014.
  17. ^ a b c Shepherd, Michael (January 4, 2016). "Democrats McCabe, Jackson announce Maine Senate bids". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved January 4, 2016.
  18. ^ "Joe Baldacci Drops Out of Congressional Race | Maine Public Broadcasting". News.mpbn.net. February 5, 2016. Retrieved July 9, 2016.
  19. ^ Cousins, Christopher (June 10, 2015). "Nancy Pelosi to boost Emily Cain's rematch against Bruce Poliquin in big-money fundraiser". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved June 10, 2015.
  20. ^ Moretto, Mario (June 9, 2015). "Young Republican star wields Taylor Swift against Paul LePage". Bangor Daily News. Archived from the original on June 10, 2015. Retrieved June 9, 2015.
  21. ^ Mitchell, Jennifer (May 14, 2016). "Candidate Proposing Nuke Plants for Maine Drops out of Congressional Race". MPBN. Retrieved June 26, 2016.
  22. ^ "Former Maine Senator endorses Emily Cain for Congress". WCSH. September 23, 2016. Retrieved September 23, 2016.[permanent dead link]
  23. ^ "Cain's pragmatism, openness would better serve Maine's 2nd District in Congress". October 20, 2016.
  24. ^ The Editorial Board (October 23, 2016). "Our View: Vote Emily Cain in 2nd District to make Congress work again".
  25. ^ University of New Hampshire
  26. ^ Normington Petts (D-Cain) [permanent dead link]
  27. ^ University of New Hampshire
  28. ^ SurveyUSA
  29. ^ "2016 House Race Ratings for November 7, 2016". House: Race Ratings. Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 12, 2016.
  30. ^ "Daily Kos Elections House race ratings: Initial ratings for 2016". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved November 7, 2016.
  31. ^ "2016 House Ratings (November 3, 2016)". House Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  32. ^ "2016 House". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 7, 2016.
  33. ^ "Battle for the House 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 31, 2016.
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