User:Cyclone1/What if some hurricanes had followed predictions?

The following page includes several "What if..." scenarios based on original predictions by the NHC. None of this ever occured. Please do not cite it as such.

There have been certian hurricanes that have veered off their predicted course, causing much less damage than originally expected. This page is dedicated to one question: "What if they didn't?"

Using information from NHC Advisory archive, I have drawn up several scenarios.

Hurricane Floyd (prediction from 11 AM 9/13/99 advisory [1])

Hurricane Floyd

After causing great damage in the Bahamas, Hurricane Floyd would have begun to approach Florida. The hurricane would turn north before reaching the Florida coast with 155mph winds. Floyd would not lose strength and may have actually strengthed, possibly to a category five (according to forecaster Lawrence) as it slammed ashore almost directly in Charleston, SC. Damage would be worse than that of Hurricane Hugo. Possibly over $30 billion in damages could have bene inflicted on Charleston and tragically, many would not have survived the storm. The death toll could have reached into the hundreds, and the size of Floyd would have caused catastrophic flooding.

Luckily, Floyd took more of a northeastern turn than predicted, striking NC as a category 2, still causing great damage, but not nearly on the scale predicted.

Tropical Storm Chris (2006)

Tropical Storm Chris

During the days of August 1 to 3, Tropical Storm Chris was orginially forecasted by the NHC to slice right through the Bahamas and between Cuba and Florida and thus, enter the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, its forecasted track also expected to make it as a major hurricane (Category 3 status or higher) in the Gulf of Mexico, similar to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005. If Chris obeyed the NHC's expectations, crude oil prices would have rose immensely to the $4 range in the United States and creating another bad-luck year. The resultes could have strongly included high death tolls by the hundreds, billions of dollars in damage, massive flooding and landslides, and severe damages.

Thanks to all that wind shear during the dissipation of La Nina conditions, Chris weakened into a tropical depression and then degenerated into a remant low before striking the eastern Cuba coastline. Another possible regeneration was expected during August 5 and 6 for Chris to strengthen back into a tropical storm in the northern Carribean Sea and move into the Gulf of Mexico as a strong tropical storm. But thanks again to hostile conditions, Chris never managed to regenerate and quickly dissipated.

More storms coming soon