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March 29[edit]

Name for how to compare probablistic models?[edit]

I'm sure there is a whole lot of material on how to do this but I don't know what it is called.

Suppose I've got some probablistic models (e.g. weather forecasts that say 20% or 40% likely rain on Tuesday and then it does or doesn't rain that day) and I want to check a bunch of predictions vs results and determine which is best. (So one prediction is slightly off for a lot of days and another is usually right but occasionally really off, determine which is better.)

What do I look up to study on this kind of mathematical question? Thank you. RJFJR (talk) 03:49, 29 March 2021 (UTC)[reply]

Model selection. --116.86.4.41 (talk) 08:26, 29 March 2021 (UTC)[reply]

Thank you. (Reading the related articles will be very interesting.) RJFJR (talk) 14:22, 29 March 2021 (UTC)[reply]

See also Scoring rule. Duckmather (talk) 20:31, 02 April 2021 (UTC)[reply]