2016 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary
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| Elections in South Carolina |
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The 2016 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary took place on February 27 in the U.S. state of South Carolina, marking the Democratic Party's fourth nominating contest in their series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.
Clinton won the South Carolina Democratic primary by a landslide margin of more than 47%, receiving a larger percentage of the African American vote than Obama, the first black President, did in 2008.[1]
With the Republican Party having already held its South Carolina primary a week earlier on February 20, the Democratic primary in South Carolina was the only presidential primary on that day.
Debates and forums
[edit]November 2015 forum in Rock Hill
[edit]Rachel Maddow was selected to moderate the First in the South Candidates Forum with Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Martin O'Malley, which was held at Winthrop University in Rock Hill, South Carolina, on November 6, co-sponsored by the Democratic Parties of 13 southern states.[2] The forum was not in debate format; instead, each candidate was interviewed individually and sequentially.[3] Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb were also invited, but their campaigns never responded to the invitations,[4] and both have since withdrawn from the race. A Public Policy Poll of South Carolina Democratic voters conducted from November 7–8, after the forum, discovered that 67% of viewers thought Clinton won the forum, 16% thought Sanders won, and 6% thought O'Malley won, with 11% unsure.[5]
January 2016 debate in Charleston, South Carolina
[edit]On January 17, 2016, the Democratic Party held a fourth debate at the Gaillard Center in Charleston, South Carolina. Hosted by Lester Holt and Andrea Mitchell, the debate aired on NBC News and was streamed on YouTube. It was also sponsored by the Congressional Black Caucus. It was notable as being the final debate before the start of precinct caucuses and primary voting. Participants were Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Martin O'Malley. It was the final debate appearance of O'Malley, who suspended his campaign on February 1.
Both before and after the debate, commentators said the debate was focused on Sanders and his voting record on gun control and slights against President Obama, among other issues. During the debate, O'Malley interrupted to take 30 seconds to talk about "homeland security and preparedness".[6] Also during the debate, Clinton and Sanders had some back-and-forth exchanges to define themselves on Wall Street, foreign policy, and gun control.[6]
Opinion polling
[edit]Delegate count: 53 Pledged, 6 Unpledged
- Winner
Hillary Clinton- Primary date
- 27 February 2016
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Official Primary Results | February 27, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 73.4% |
Bernie Sanders 26.0% |
Others 0.6% | |
| Clemson[7]
Margin of error: 3.0%
|
February 20–25, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 64% |
Bernie Sanders 14% |
Others / Undecided 22% | |
| Emerson College[8]
Margin of error: 6.0%
|
February 22–24, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 60% |
Bernie Sanders 37% |
Others / Undecided 3% | |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist[9]
Margin of error: 4.8%
|
February 15–17, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 60% |
Bernie Sanders 32% |
Other 8% | |
| Bloomberg Politics[10]
Margin of error: 4.9%
|
February 13–17, 2016 |
Hillary Clinton 53% |
Bernie Sanders 31% |
Not sure 16% | |
| ARG[11]
Margin of error: 5%
|
February 14–16, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 61% |
Bernie Sanders 31% |
Someone else 1% | No opinion 7% |
| Public Policy Polling[12]
Margin of error: ± 4%
|
February 14–15, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 55% |
Bernie Sanders 34% |
Undecided 12% | |
| CNN/ORC[13]
Margin of error: 6%
|
February 10–15, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 56% |
Bernie Sanders 38% |
Someone else 3% | No opinion 4% |
| ARG[14]
Margin of error: ± 5.0%
|
February 12–13, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 65% |
Bernie Sanders 27% |
Other 1%, Undecided 7% | |
| YouGov/CBS News[15]
Margin of error: ± 8.7%
|
February 10–12, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 59% |
Bernie Sanders 40% |
No Preference 1% | |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist[16]
Margin of error: ± 4.6%
|
January 17–23, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 64% |
Bernie Sanders 27% |
Martin O'Malley 2% |
Undecided 7% |
| YouGov/CBS News[17]
Margin of error: ± 9.4%
|
January 17–21, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 60% |
Bernie Sanders 38% |
Martin O'Malley 0% |
Undecided 2% |
| SC New Democrats
Margin of error: ± ?%
|
January 12–15, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 47% |
Bernie Sanders 28% |
Martin O'Malley 2% |
Undecided 22% |
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov/CBS News[18]
Margin of error: ± 5.0%
|
December 13–17, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 67% |
Bernie Sanders 31% |
Martin O'Malley 2% |
No Preference 0% |
| Fox News
Margin of error: ± 5.0%
|
December 5–8, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 65% |
Bernie Sanders 21% |
Martin O'Malley 3% |
Other 1%, None of the Above 7%, DK 3% |
| YouGov/CBS News[19]
Margin of error: ± 6.0%
|
November 15–19, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 72% |
Bernie Sanders 25% |
Martin O'Malley 2% |
Undecided 1% |
| Public Policy Polling[20]
Margin of error: ± 4.9%
|
November 7–8, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 72% |
Bernie Sanders 18% |
Martin O'Malley 5% |
Unsure 5% |
| Monmouth University[21]
Margin of error: ± 4.9%
|
November 5–8, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 69% |
Bernie Sanders 21% |
Martin O'Malley 1% |
Other 1% No Preference 8% |
| Winthrop University[22]
Margin of error: ± 3.4%
|
October 24 – November 1, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 71% |
Bernie Sanders 15% |
Martin O'Malley 2% |
Refused 2% Undecided 9% Wouldn't Vote 1% |
| YouGov/CBS News[23]
Margin of error: ± 8.2%
|
October 15–22, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 68% |
Bernie Sanders 25% |
Martin O'Malley 1% |
Jim Webb 1%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Lawrence Lessig 0%, No preference 4% |
| Clemson Palmetto[24]
Margin of error: 4.0%
|
October 13–23, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 43% |
Bernie Sanders 6% |
Martin O'Malley 1% |
Undecided 50% |
| CNN/ORC[25]
Margin of error: 5.5%
|
October 3–10, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 49% |
Joe Biden 24% |
Bernie Sanders 18% |
Martin O'Malley 3%, Someone else 1%, None/No one 1%, No opinion 4% |
| Gravis Marketing[26]
Margin of error: ± ?%
|
September 25–27, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 50% |
Joe Biden 19% |
Bernie Sanders 13% |
Lincoln Chafee 1%, Jim Webb <1%, Martin O'Malley <1%, Unsure 17% |
| YouGov/CBS News[27]
Margin of error: ± 6.8%
|
Sep. 3–10, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 46% |
Bernie Sanders 23% |
Joe Biden 22% |
No preference 8%, Jim Webb 1%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Martin O'Malley 0% |
| Public Policy Polling[28]
Margin of error: ± 5.6%
|
Sep. 3–6, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 54% |
Joe Biden 24% |
Bernie Sanders 9% |
Martin O’Malley, Jim Webb 2%; Lincoln Chafee 1% |
| Gravis Marketing[29]
Margin of error: ± 4.0%
|
July 29–30, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 78% |
Bernie Sanders 8% |
Elizabeth Warren 6% |
Joe Biden 6%, Jim Webb 1%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Lincoln Chafee 1% |
| Morning Consult[30]
Margin of error: ?
|
May 31 – June 8, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 56% |
Joe Biden 15% |
Bernie Sanders 10% |
Martin O'Malley 3%, Jim Webb 2%, Lincoln Chafee 1%, Someone else 2% Undecided 11% |
| Public Policy Polling
Margin of error: ± 6.2%
|
February 12–15, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 59% |
Joe Biden 18% |
Elizabeth Warren 10% |
Martin O'Malley 3%, Bernie Sanders 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Other/Undecided 8% |
| NBC News/Marist
Margin of error: ± 5.2%
|
February 3–10, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 65% |
Joe Biden 20% |
Bernie Sanders 3% |
Martin O'Malley 2%, Jim Webb 2%, Undecided 8% |
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clemson University
Margin of error: ±6%
|
May 26 – June 2, 2014 | Hillary Clinton 50% |
Joe Biden 12% |
Andrew Cuomo 2% |
Martin O'Malley 1%, Deval Patrick 0%, Brian Schweitzer 0%, Undecided/Don't know 35% |
Results
[edit]| South Carolina Democratic primary, February 27, 2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Popular vote | Estimated delegates | |||
| Count | Percentage | Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |
| Hillary Clinton | 272,379 | 73.44% | 39 | 5 | 44 |
| Bernie Sanders | 96,498 | 26.02% | 14 | 0 | 14 |
| Willie Wilson | 1,314 | 0.35% | |||
| Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) | 713 | 0.19% | |||
| Uncommitted | 0 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Total votes | 370,904 | 100% | 53 | 6 | 59 |
| Sources: The Green Papers, South Carolina State Election Commission | |||||
Results by county
[edit]Clinton won every county.[31]
| County | Clinton | % | Sanders | % | Others | Total votes cast | Turnout as % of total registered electors | Margin as % of votes cast in primary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbeville | 1,508 | 81.91% | 312 | 16.95% | 21 | 1,841 | 12.45% | 64.96% |
| Aiken | 6,889 | 70.17% | 2,877 | 29.31% | 51 | 9,883 | 9.41% | 40.87% |
| Allendale | 1,022 | 90.84% | 95 | 8.44% | 8 | 1,137 | 19.43% | 82.40% |
| Anderson | 5,576 | 66.79% | 2,712 | 32.48% | 61 | 8,401 | 7.54% | 34.30% |
| Bamberg | 1,710 | 89.20% | 197 | 10.28% | 10 | 1,928 | 20.08% | 78.93% |
| Barnwell | 1,561 | 87.45% | 209 | 11.71% | 15 | 1,800 | 13.50% | 75.74% |
| Beaufort | 9,970 | 73.30% | 3,575 | 26.28% | 56 | 13,664 | 13.21% | 47.02% |
| Berkeley | 9,485 | 71.96% | 3,592 | 27.25% | 104 | 13,264 | 12.04% | 44.71% |
| Calhoun | 1,536 | 86.05% | 241 | 13.50% | 8 | 1,809 | 17.31% | 72.55% |
| Charleston | 26,625 | 65.97% | 13,527 | 33.47% | 228 | 40,508 | 15.34% | 32.50% |
| Cherokee | 1,877 | 77.95% | 514 | 21.35% | 17 | 2,427 | 7.91% | 56.60% |
| Chester | 1,962 | 79.63% | 492 | 19.97% | 10 | 2,477 | 12.23% | 59.66% |
| Chesterfield | 2,209 | 82.80% | 446 | 16.72% | 13 | 2,696 | 10.71% | 66.08% |
| Clarendon | 3,571 | 90.87% | 337 | 8.58% | 22 | 3,976 | 17.17% | 82.29% |
| Colleton | 2,939 | 81.86% | 584 | 16.40% | 37 | 3,592 | 14.89% | 66.15% |
| Darlington | 4,990 | 81.86% | 1,081 | 17.73% | 25 | 6,148 | 14.49% | 64.12% |
| Dillon | 1,659 | 84.00% | 302 | 15.29% | 14 | 1,993 | 10.33% | 68.71% |
| Dorchester | 6,934 | 70.21% | 2,885 | 29.21% | 57 | 9,929 | 10.54% | 41.00% |
| Edgefield | 1,474 | 81.80% | 301 | 16.70% | 27 | 1,822 | 11.46% | 65.09% |
| Fairfield | 3,265 | 87.46% | 440 | 11.76% | 28 | 3,754 | 24.35% | 75.68% |
| Florence | 9,433 | 78.00% | 2,594 | 21.45% | 67 | 12,196 | 14.53% | 55.55% |
| Georgetown | 4,941 | 77.82% | 1,350 | 21.26% | 58 | 6,402 | 15.69% | 56.56% |
| Greenville | 19,966 | 63.95% | 11,118 | 35.61% | 138 | 31,398 | 10.56% | 28.34% |
| Greenwood | 3,623 | 77.46% | 987 | 21.10% | 67 | 4,710 | 11.82% | 56.36% |
| Hampton | 1,933 | 87.98% | 241 | 10.97% | 23 | 2,202 | 17.27% | 77.01% |
| Horry | 11,316 | 67.25% | 5,457 | 32.43% | 54 | 16,916 | 8.95% | 34.82% |
| Jasper | 2,195 | 85.08% | 355 | 13.76% | 30 | 2,594 | 15.48% | 71.32% |
| Kershaw | 3,761 | 77.10% | 1,093 | 22.41% | 24 | 4,914 | 12.32% | 54.69% |
| Lancaster | 3,346 | 72.96% | 1,221 | 26.62% | 19 | 4,615 | 8.98% | 46.34% |
| Laurens | 2,978 | 78.53% | 801 | 21.12% | 13 | 3,831 | 10.25% | 57.41% |
| Lee | 2,209 | 87.66% | 288 | 11.43% | 23 | 2,548 | 21.40% | 76.23% |
| Lexington | 8,847 | 60.93% | 5,611 | 38.65% | 61 | 14,572 | 8.69% | 22.29% |
| Marion | 3,361 | 85.37% | 552 | 14.05% | 23 | 3,978 | 18.42% | 71.32% |
| Marlboro | 2,137 | 88.97% | 253 | 10.53% | 12 | 2,412 | 13.60% | 78.43% |
| McCormick | 973 | 85.05% | 162 | 14.16% | 9 | 1,161 | 17.18% | 70.89% |
| Newberry | 2,121 | 80.92% | 471 | 17.97% | 29 | 2,641 | 11.77% | 62.95% |
| Oconee | 1,960 | 59.61% | 1,304 | 39.66% | 24 | 3,305 | 6.93% | 19.95% |
| Orangeburg | 11,872 | 88.64% | 1,473 | 11.00% | 49 | 13,515 | 23.74% | 77.64% |
| Pickens | 2,503 | 55.43% | 1,995 | 44.18% | 18 | 4,528 | 6.90% | 11.25% |
| Richland | 39,332 | 75.75% | 12,354 | 23.79% | 238 | 52,136 | 21.73% | 51.96% |
| Saluda | 1,023 | 83.72% | 192 | 15.71% | 7 | 1,237 | 10.97% | 68.00% |
| Spartanburg | 10,674 | 70.27% | 4,467 | 29.41% | 49 | 1,237 | 9.17% | 40.86% |
| Sumter | 9,830 | 86.61% | 1,443 | 12.71% | 77 | 15,239 | 17.42% | 73.89% |
| Union | 1,690 | 83.37% | 332 | 16.38% | 5 | 11,432 | 11.99% | 67.00% |
| Williamsburg | 4,613 | 88.52% | 557 | 10.69% | 41 | 5,272 | 23.90% | 77.84% |
| York | 8,890 | 63.40% | 5,127 | 36.20% | 57 | 14,216 | 9.26% | 27.20% |
| Total | 272,379 | 73.44% | 96,498 | 26.02% | 2,027 | 373,063 | 12.60% | 47.42% |
Delegates: The South Carolina Democratic Party - State Election Results Archived October 26, 2017, at the Wayback Machine
Analysis
[edit]As South Carolina's majority-black Democratic electorate had dealt a severe death-blow to Clinton's 2008 presidential effort against Barack Obama, it gave her campaign new life in 2016. Clinton won the primary in a 47-point routing thanks to ardent support from African American voters. According to exit polls, Clinton won the black vote 86-14, which comprised 61% of the Democratic electorate in South Carolina; she won among black women 89-11 who comprised 37% of the electorate. Clinton's near-unanimous support from black voters was fueled by their interest in a continuation of President Obama's policies,[32] and by black women who wanted to see a woman elected.[33]
Clinton won every county statewide. She won in upcountry 66-34, Piedmont 74-25, Central South Carolina, including the region which is majority African American 78-22, Pee dee/Waccamaw 83-17, and lowcountry 70-30.[34] She also swept the major cities of Charleston, Columbia, Greenville, and Rock Hill.
References
[edit]- ^ "Black Voters Boost Clinton in South Carolina". ABC News. February 28, 2016. Retrieved May 20, 2016.
- ^ "MSNBC's Rachel Maddow to moderate 2016 Democratic forum at Winthrop". The State. October 7, 2015.
- ^ "MSNBC's Rachel Maddow will bring Southern focus to forum". Charlotte Observer. November 4, 2015.
- ^ "S.C. Democrats to host three presidential candidates in Rock Hill". Greenvilleonline.com. October 7, 2015. Retrieved January 17, 2016.
- ^ "Three Republican candidates speak at anti-gay pastor's rally". MSNBC. Retrieved November 23, 2015.
- ^ a b Fix, Team (January 17, 2016). "The 4th Democratic debate transcript, annotated: Who said what and what it meant". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved January 18, 2016.
- ^ "Clemson University Palmetto Poll Democratic primary summary". Retrieved February 26, 2016.
- ^ "EMERSON POLL: CLINTON LEADS SANDERS BY A WIDE MARGIN IN SOUTH CAROLINA, WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM AFRICAN AMERICANS" (PDF). Retrieved February 26, 2016.
- ^ "Donald Trump's Lead Slashed in South Carolina: Poll". Retrieved February 19, 2016.
- ^ "Clinton Strong in South Carolina But Warning Signs Ahead, Bloomberg Poll Shows". Retrieved February 18, 2016.
- ^ "South Carolina primary: ARG Poll". Retrieved February 17, 2016.
- ^ http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article60547281.html
- ^ "South Carolina primary: CNN/ORC poll full results". Retrieved February 16, 2016.
- ^ http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/arg-23748
- ^ "CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker South Carolina" (PDF). CBS News. February 14, 2016. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
- ^ "NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll January 2016 South Carolina Questionnaire" (PDF). Retrieved February 5, 2016.
- ^ "CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker South Carolina" (PDF). CBS News. January 24, 2016. Retrieved January 24, 2016.
- ^ "CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker South Carolina" (PDF).
- ^ "CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker Iowa" (PDF).
- ^ "Trump Still Leads But Declining in SC; Clinton Dominant" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. November 10, 2015. Retrieved January 22, 2016.
- ^ "South Carolina: Clinton with Big Lead" (PDF). Monmouth University Poll. November 10, 2015. Retrieved January 22, 2015.
- ^ "Winthrop University: Winthrop Poll – Current Findings". winthrop.edu.
- ^ "PDF file" (PDF). Retrieved October 12, 2015.
- ^ "SC Poll". Retrieved November 5, 2015.
- ^ "CNN SC poll". Retrieved November 5, 2015.
- ^ "The Buzz". Retrieved October 1, 2015.
- ^ Will Jordan. "Sanders up big in New Hampshire and Iowa; Carson trails Trump". YouGov.
- ^ "The Buzz". Retrieved September 9, 2015.
- ^ "SC polling" (PDF). Retrieved August 4, 2015.
- ^ "Morning Consult SC" (PDF). morningconsult.com. Retrieved July 9, 2015.
- ^ "South Carolina Election Results 2016: President Live Map by County, Real-Time Voting Updates - POLITICO".
- ^ Chozick, Amy; Healy, Patrick (February 27, 2016). "Hillary Clinton Wins South Carolina Primary". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved October 18, 2016.
- ^ Hannah-jones, Nikole (February 26, 2016). "For Black Women in South Carolina, It's Clinton's Turn". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved October 18, 2016.
- ^ "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved October 18, 2016.