2024 Tuxedo provincial by-election
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Riding of Tuxedo | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Turnout | 45.62% ( 14.24 pp) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2024 Tuxedo provincial by-election was held on June 18.[1]
In an historic result, the NDP won the election with 49% to the PC's 42%, the first time the party has ever won the seat since its creation in 1981, and the first time a centre-left party won the area since 1945 when the NDP's predecessor, the CCF, won the Assiniboia constituency. The third-place Liberal Party's 7% vote share was the worst result the party ever received in the constituency.
Background
[edit]The riding was vacant after former Premier Heather Stefanson resigned from the Legislative Assembly on May 6, 2024.[2]
On May 20, Premier Wab Kinew announced that a by-election would be held in Tuxedo on June 18.[3]
Constituency
[edit]Tuxedo is an affluent,[4] traditionally safe Tory seat[5] in southwest Winnipeg.[6] In addition to Stefanson, it was the riding of former premier Gary Filmon.[5] The riding has voted for the Progressive Conservatives in every election since its creation in 1981. Despite the riding being considered safe, the NDP came within 268 votes of picking it up in the 2023 general election.[4]
Candidates
[edit]Progressive Conservative
[edit]A nomination meeting to determine the PC candidate was held on May 23 with family lawyer Lawrence Pinsky winning the contested race.[7][8] The other candidates seeking the nomination were Shannon Martin (MLA for McPhillips, 2019–2023 and Morris, 2014–2019) and Lori Shenkarow (real estate agent).[9]
Kevin Klein (MLA for Kirkfield Park, 2022–2023 and Winnipeg City Councillor for Charleswood-Tuxedo-Westwood, 2018–2022) was also considered a potential candidate, however, he ended up not running.[10]
New Democratic
[edit]On May 20, the NDP announced that they had nominated Carla Compton as the candidate for the by-election. She works as a registered nurse and was the Tuxedo candidate for the party in the 2019 election.[5]
Liberal
[edit]On May 21, The Liberals announced that their candidate would be Jamie Pfau, president of the Manitoba Foster Parent Association.[11]
Deputy leader of the party, Willard Reaves, who ran for the party in Fort Whyte in 2022 and 2023 sought the nomination before bowing out of the race and supporting Pfau.[9][11]
Green
[edit]On May 20, it was announced that the leader of the Green Party, Janine Gibson would be the candidate for the by-election.[9]
Results
[edit]
| Manitoba provincial by-election, June 18, 2024: Tuxedo Resignation of Heather Stefanson | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ** Preliminary results — Not yet official ** | ||||||||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | Expenditures | |||
| New Democratic | Carla Compton | 3,777 | 49.44 | +11.95 | ||||
| Progressive Conservative | Lawrence Pinsky | 3,175 | 41.56 | +1.36 | ||||
| Liberal | Jamie Pfau | 569 | 7.45 | -14.85 | ||||
| Green | Janine Gibson | 118 | 1.54 | |||||
| Total valid votes | 7,639 | 99.58 | ||||||
| Total rejected and declined ballots | 32 | 0.42 | +0.01 | |||||
| Turnout | 7,671 | 45.62 | -14.24 | |||||
| Eligible voters | 16,814 | |||||||
| New Democratic gain from Progressive Conservative | Swing | +5.30 | ||||||
Previous results
[edit]| 2023 Manitoba general election: Tuxedo | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | Expenditures | |||
| Progressive Conservative | Heather Stefanson | 3,968 | 40.21 | -7.65 | $10,145.15 | |||
| New Democratic | Larissa Ashdown | 3,700 | 37.49 | +17.70 | $1,572.48 | |||
| Liberal | Marc Brandson | 2,201 | 22.30 | -1.26 | $5,309.68 | |||
| Total valid votes/expense limit | 9,869 | 99.60 | – | $64,529.00 | ||||
| Total rejected and declined ballots | 40 | 0.40 | -0.40 | |||||
| Turnout | 9,909 | 59.86 | +1.96 | |||||
| Eligible voters | 16,554 | |||||||
| Progressive Conservative hold | Swing | -12.67 | ||||||
Source(s) | ||||||||
References
[edit]- ^ "PROVINCE ANNOUNCES BY-ELECTION SET FOR JUNE 18 IN TUXEDO". Government of Manitoba. May 20, 2024. Retrieved May 20, 2024.
- ^ "Former Manitoba premier Heather Stefanson resigning as MLA". CBC News. April 25, 2024. Retrieved May 15, 2024.
- ^ Streeter, Arin (May 20, 2024). "Premier Wab Kinew announces Tuxedo byelection". Global News. Corus Entertainment. Retrieved May 20, 2024.
- ^ a b "Tuxedo byelection has all 4 Manitoba parties eyeing Winnipeg constituency that has only ever voted Tory blue". CBC News. June 12, 2024. Retrieved June 13, 2024.
- ^ a b c Streeter, Arin (May 20, 2024). "Manitoba NDP announce candidate for Tuxedo byelection". Global News. Corus Entertainment. Retrieved May 20, 2024.
- ^ "Pinsky running for Tories in Tuxedo byelection". Winnipeg Free Press. June 12, 2024. Retrieved June 13, 2024.
- ^ Froese, Ian (May 23, 2024). "Family lawyer learns he'll be running for Tories in Tuxedo byelection via FaceTime from Israel". CBC News. Retrieved May 23, 2024.
- ^ "Manitoba parties line up candidates for June 18 byelection in former premier's seat". Global News. The Canadian Press. May 23, 2024. Retrieved May 23, 2024.
- ^ a b c Froese, Ian (May 20, 2024). "Clock is ticking to name candidates as Manitoba NDP calls Tuxedo byelection for June 18". CBC News. Retrieved May 20, 2024.
- ^ Froese, Ian (May 7, 2024). "Ex-MLA Shannon Martin among PC hopefuls for Tuxedo seat vacated by Heather Stefanson". CBC News. Retrieved May 15, 2024.
- ^ a b "Foster parent advocate Jamie Pfau will represent Manitoba Liberals in Tuxedo byelection". CBC News. May 21, 2024. Retrieved May 21, 2024.
- ^ "Summary of Votes Received" (PDF). Elections Manitoba. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ "CANDIDATE ELECTION RETURNS GENERAL ELECTION 2023". Elections Manitoba. Retrieved May 7, 2024.
- ^ "2023 GENERAL ELECTION CANDIDATE AND REGISTERED PARTY ELECTION EXPENSE LIMITS - FINAL EXPENSE LIMIT" (PDF). Elections Manitoba. Retrieved May 4, 2024.