2024 French legislative election
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An early legislative election is expected to be held in France in two rounds on 30 June and 7 July 2024, to elect the 577 members of the 17th National Assembly of the Fifth French Republic. This follows President Emmanuel Macron's decision to call a snap legislative election after the results of the 2024 European Parliament election were announced in which his L'Europe Ensemble suffered a heavy defeat to the far-right National Rally,[3] which prompted him to dissolve the National Assembly.[4]
Background[edit]
Following the 2022 legislative election, Ensemble lost its absolute majority in the National Assembly. Among the member parties of the coalition was President Emmanuel Macron's party, Renaissance (formerly La République En Marche!) – for the first time since 1997, the incumbent president failed to have an absolute majority in the National Assembly.
Meanwhile, the two main opposition blocs, the left-wing New Ecological and Social People's Union (NUPES) and populist right-wing (RN), saw a major surge in seats won in 2022. Despite that, no group won the absolute majority, resulting in a hung parliament for the first time since 1988.[5]
On 9 June 2024, shortly after 21:00 CET, Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called for snap elections in a national address following exit polls that indicated that the Renaissance party would be significantly eclipsed by the RN in votes for France's European Parliament elections. In his address, he called the rise of nationalism by agitators a threat to France, Europe, and France's place in the world. He also decried the far right as the "impoverishment of the French people and the downfall of our country". The first round of elections are scheduled for 30 June, and a second round for 7 July.[6]
RN leader Jordan Bardella called the disparity a "stinging disavowal" of Macron, calling for him to dissolve the National Assembly in the wake of the defeat he called "Day 1 of the post-Macron era".[7] Marine Le Pen, who leads the RN in the National Assembly, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of La France Insoumise, celebrated the poll results and welcomed the call for snap elections.[6]
The decision to hold an election came as a surprise, and was considered risky. Some suggested that Macron wished to force a decision between the RN and their opposition, others that Macron intended to win a majority. The decision was criticized by members of several political parties, with the mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo, expressing concerns about its effects on the 2024 Summer Olympics.[8][9]
Campaign[edit]
The timeline for candidates to register for the first round of elections is from 12 June until 16 June, while the candidate registration deadline for the second round is 2 July.[10]
Campaigning officially began on 17 June.[11]
Leftist politician François Ruffin called on all left-wing parties, including the Greens, to form a "popular front" in order to avoid the "worst" outcome.[12] Calls for unity were also shared by Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure, Greens leader Marine Tondelier and French Communist Party leader Fabien Roussel.[13] A letter of 350 intellectuals (including Esther Duflo and Annie Ernaux) calling for a union of left-wing forces was published in Le Monde on 10 June.[14] The New Popular Front was established on the same day.[15] The coalition unveiled its campaign platform on 14 June, which included overturning Macron's immigration policy and pension reforms, continuing military aid to Ukraine and sending peacekeepers to secure Ukraine's nuclear power plants.[16]
Marion Maréchal, a far-right candidate for Reconquête in the European election, met with her aunt Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, leaders of the RN, on 10 June, to discuss a potential far-right alliance during the legislative election.[17] After the meeting, Maréchal indicated that Bardella was opposed to an alliance with Reconquête as his party did not want to be affiliated with Reconquête party leader Éric Zemmour;[18] regardless, she announced her endorsement of the RN. On 12 June, Zemmour announced that he was expelling Maréchal from the party.[19] Bardella affirmed on 14 June that the RN and The Republicans would run joint candidates in 70 constituencies,[20] though the latter disputed the amount.[21]
Marine Le Pen promised that the RN would form a "national unity government" should it win the election.[16] At the same time, Bardella said that he was "the only one capable of blocking Jean-Luc Mélenchon and blocking the far left" and urged "all the patriotic forces of the republic" to unite and prevent the left from winning the election. He also pledged to pass an immigration law allowing the deportation of "delinquents and Islamists" and cut energy costs as prime minister.[21] On 18 June, Bardella urged voters to give his party an "absolute majority" for it to be able to govern effectively, while pledging to cut energy taxes to 5.5% from 20%.[22] In an interview with Le Monde, Le Pen confirmed that Bardella would not seek the post of prime minister in the absence of an absolute majority.[23]
The president of The Republicans, Éric Ciotti, spoke in favor of an alliance with the RN during an 11 June interview with the French channel TF1. Olivier Marleix, the head of the party in the National Assembly, called for Ciotti's resignation in response.[4] On 12 June, The Republicans' political committee voted unanimously to remove Ciotti as its president and expel him from the party. However, the latter rejected the decision, calling it "a flagrant violation of our statutes" that was illegal and void.[24] A Paris court reviewed the decision on 14 June, in which Ciotti was reinstated as party leader in the interim,[25] while Republicans in Hauts-de-Seine announced a local alliance with Renaissance.[21] Ciotti secured an agreement with RN to present 62 candidates, none of which are outgoing LR deputies except for himself and his close ally Christelle d'Intorni, while LR invested candidates in a majority of other constituencies, including all other incumbent deputies seeking re-election, as well as fielding candidates against both Ciotti and d'Intorni.[26][27][28][2]
Prime Minister Gabriel Attal vowed to do everything to avoid "the worst" outcome, with aides quoting him as saying that the far right was "at the gates of power" in France.[29] Finance minister Bruno Le Maire also warned that a victory by either the far-right or the left could cause a financial crisis.[21] On 12 June, Macron said that he had called the election to prevent a far-right victory in the 2027 presidential election. He criticised The Republicans for its potential alliance with the RN, as well as the New Popular Front, and urged all parties "able to say no to extremes" to unite.[30] Since then, Attal has pledged to lower electricity bills and inheritance taxes, link pensions to inflation and provide aid to first-time property buyers.[31]
Macron and his allies decided to focus their attacks on the program of the New Popular Front prior to the first round, largely avoiding direct confrontation against the RN until the second round.[32] Macron himself publicly denounced its "totally immigrationist" stance and decried proposals which would make it easier for transgender people to change their civil status,[33] and his former prime minister Élisabeth Borne decried the alliance as being one of "separatist wokists who support Islamism and communitarianism" with a nonsensical program and disastrous economic policies.[34] According to an Odoxa poll, 34% believed a RN-led government would be more dangerous for France compared to 33% in the case of a NFP-led government,[35] and an OpinionWay poll indicated centrist voters refusing to vote for NFP candidates in the second round could boost the RN, with NFP candidates trailing 34%–41% in second-round duels against RN candidates, whereas pro-Macron candidates led RN ones by a 44%–36% margin.[36]
Electoral system[edit]
The 577 members of the National Assembly, known as deputies, are elected for five years by a two-round system in single-member constituencies. A candidate who receives an absolute majority of valid votes and a vote total greater than 25% of the registered electorate is elected in the first round. If no candidate reaches this threshold, a runoff election is held between the top two candidates plus any other candidate who received a vote total greater than 12.5% of registered voters. The candidate who receives the most votes in the second round is elected.[37]
Deputies not running for re-election[edit]
Political parties and coalitions[edit]
Below are the major parties and alliances (including any primary components with candidates in at least 3 constituencies) contesting the elections in a majority (289 or more as tallied by Le Monde) of constituencies, listed by their combined results in the previous elections.[2]
Due to the suddenness of the dissolution, significantly fewer candidates will compete in the legislative elections in 2024 compared to previous years, with only 4,011 candidates in 577 constituencies (the lowest figure since the 1988 election). The decline is also explained by both national and local alliances as well as the absence of candidates in some constituencies in order to support other ideologically-aligned candidates. Smaller parties were the most significantly affected (such as the Animalist Party, which presented 421 candidates and received 1.1% of the vote in 2022 but announced it would not present candidates in 2024) due to their inability to negotiate alliances with larger parties and identify candidates in the majority of constituencies with such short notice.[38]
Opinion polls[edit]
Graphical summary[edit]
Results[edit]
National results[edit]
| Parties and alliances | Acronym | First round | Second round | Seats | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Seats | Votes | % | Seats | Total | +/− | |||
| Together for the Republic[o] | ER[p] | |||||||||
| New Popular Front[q] | NFP[r] | |||||||||
| National Rally and allies[s] | RN/UXD | |||||||||
| The Republicans[a] | LR | |||||||||
| Reconquête | REC | |||||||||
| Miscellaneous left | DVG | |||||||||
| Miscellaneous ecologist | ECO | |||||||||
| Miscellaneous right | DVD | |||||||||
| Regionalists | REG | |||||||||
| Miscellaneous centre | DVC | |||||||||
| Miscellaneous far-left[t] | EXG | |||||||||
| Sovereignist right[u] | DSV | |||||||||
| Miscellaneous | DIV | |||||||||
| Radical Party of the Left[v] | RDG | |||||||||
| Miscellaneous far-right | EXD | |||||||||
| Blank ballots | ||||||||||
| Total | ||||||||||
| Valid votes | ||||||||||
| Invalid votes | ||||||||||
| Votes cast / turnout | ||||||||||
| Abstentions | ||||||||||
| Registered voters | 49,339,714 | 49,339,714 | ||||||||
| Source: Ministry of the Interior[46] | ||||||||||
Results by constituency[edit]
Results listed below are according to the Ministry of the Interior, with some more specific parties listed in accordance with research by Le Monde where appropriate.[46][2]
See also[edit]
- Legislative elections in France
- List of deputies of the 17th National Assembly of France
- 2024 elections in the European Union
Notes[edit]
- ^ a b c d Vote and seat totals corresponding to LR candidates invested by the national investiture committee of The Republicans (French: commission nationale d'investiture des Républicains), including some directly in opposition to Ciotti himself and other candidates presented by his alliance with the RN in certain constituencies[2][27][28]
- ^ a b De jure The Republicans (LR) party leader but presenting a rival set of candidates in alliance with the National Rally (RN) against candidates selected by the national investiture committee of The Republicans (French: commission nationale d'investiture des Républicains), with Annie Genevard and François-Xavier Bellamy installed as interim party presidents before his reinstatement as president and party member.[42][2]
- ^ Standing as a RN-backed candidate and facing an LR opponent invested by the national investiture committee of The Republicans (French: commission nationale d'investiture des Républicains)[2]
- ^ Excluding UDI, who joined the alliance between the dissolution of the National Assembly and the beginning of the election
- ^ Includes 77 candidates, also presenting 1 candidate against official Together for the Republic candidates[2]
- ^ Includes 77 candidates[2]
- ^ Includes 11 candidates, also presenting 27 candidates against official Together for the Republic candidates[2]
- ^ Includes 3 candidates, also presenting 1 candidate against official Together for the Republic candidates[2]
- ^ a b Also presenting 1 candidate against official New Popular Front candidates[2]
- ^ Also presenting 6 candidates against official New Popular Front candidates[2]
- ^ Two candidates for Tāvini Huiraʻatira (1 candidate invested outside the framework of the New Popular Front) as well as one candidate each for Republican and Socialist Left (1 candidate invested outside the framework of the New Popular Front), Ecological Revolution for the Living, Ecology Generation, Picardie Debout, the New Anticapitalist Party (30 candidates invested outside of the framework of the New Popular Front), the Independent Workers' Party, Ecosocialist Left, and abertzale with the New Popular Front, as well as several dissident candidates not officially supported by their party.[2][39]
- ^ Includes candidates jointly backed by the Ciotti-led The Republicans faction. The right-wing populist party Debout la France will present its own candidates in only 76 constituencies as classified by Le Monde (although the party officially claims to have 107 candidates), and support RN-backed candidates in other constituencies[2][40][41]
- ^ Candidates invested in 291 (50.4%) constituencies according to the classification of Le Monde, although the party officially claims to have invested candidates in 330 (7.2%) constituencies[2][43]
- ^ Candidates invested in 550 (95.3%) constituencies[2]
- ^ a b c Vote and seat calculations include the following acronyms: ENS, REN, MDM, HOR, and UDI
- ^ Officially ENS[44]
- ^ a b c Vote and seat calculations include the following acronyms: UG, FI, SOC, VEC, and COM
- ^ Officially Union de la gauche (UG)[44]
- ^ a b c Vote and seat totals include the following acronyms: RN and UXD. The latter includes candidates jointly invested by the Ciotti-led faction of The Republicans and the National Rally in constituencies without a candidate presented by the RN, designated as the union of the far-right (French: union de l'extrême droite) by the Ministry of the Interior[2]
- ^ Includes 549 of 550 candidates Lutte Ouvrière and 30 of 31 candidates from the New Anticapitalist Party out of 654 total candidates[2]
- ^ Includes 74 of 76 Debout la France candidates classified by Le Monde (although the party officially claims to have 107 candidates) out of 114 total sovereignist right candidates, with DLF officially backing RN candidates in majority of constituencies.[2][40][41]
- ^ The Radical Party of the Left, abbreviated PRG (not to be confused with the Radicals of the Left, French: les Radicaux de gauche, abbreviated LRDG but not related to this acronym), is not officially a member or supporter of the NFP, but supports a left-of-centre coalition and primarily left-of-centre candidates. This acronym corresponding to the PRG has only been assigned to 4 candidates by the Ministry of the Interior.[2][45]
References[edit]
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- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t Sanchez, Léa; Derœux, Iris; Pateman, Lili; Parienté, Jonathan; Audureau, William; Imbach, Romain; Tovo, Françoise; Durand, Anne-Aël; Breteau, Pierre; Leloup, Damien; Baruch, Jérémie; Ferrer, Maxime (19 June 2024). "Découvrez la liste des candidats aux élections législatives 2024 dans votre circonscription". Le Monde. Retrieved 20 June 2024.
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- ^ Goury-Laffont, Victor (10 June 2024). "France's conservatives and far right explore uniting to beat Macron". Politico. Retrieved 12 June 2024.
- ^ Goury-Laffont, Victor (11 June 2024). "French far-right alliance talks break down". Politico. Retrieved 12 June 2024.
- ^ "Far-right Reconquest founder Zemmour expels Maréchal from party". France 24. 13 June 2024. Retrieved 13 June 2024.
- ^ "French MEP Glucksmann joins left-wing union New Popular Front, vows clear stance on Gaza, Ukraine". France 24. 14 June 2024. Retrieved 14 June 2024.
- ^ a b c d "French left forms 'popular front' to fight far right". BBC. 14 June 2024. Retrieved 15 June 2024.
- ^ "French left forms 'popular front' to fight far right". France 24. 18 June 2024. Retrieved 18 June 2024.
- ^ Guillou, Clément (20 June 2024). "« On ne s'interdit rien » : les plans de Marine Le Pen en cas de victoire de l'extrême droite aux législatives". Le Monde. Retrieved 21 June 2024.
- ^ "France's rightwing Les Républicains vote out leader Éric Ciotti over election pact with far right". France 24. 12 June 2024. Retrieved 12 June 2024.
- ^ "Court suspends French right-wing leader Ciotti's expulsion from party". Le Monde. 14 June 2024. Retrieved 14 June 2024.
- ^ Guez, Ariel (17 June 2024). "Législatives: au moins 62 candidats soutenus par Éric Ciotti et le RN, près de 400 par Les Républicains". BFMTV. Retrieved 20 June 2024.
- ^ a b Tremblay, Amaury (12 June 2024). "Alpes-Maritimes: Christelle D'Intorni dit être "la seule candidate LR légitime" sur la 5e circonscription". BFMTV. Retrieved 20 June 2024.
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- ^ "French PM Attal vows to 'do everything' to 'avoid the worst' in snap elections". Le Monde. 11 June 2024. Retrieved 14 June 2024.
- ^ "Macron says he called snap elections to prevent rise of far right in 2027 presidential vote". France 24. 12 June 2024. Retrieved 12 June 2024.
- ^ "French PM Attal pledges household finances boost ahead of legislative elections". France 24. 20 June 2024. Retrieved 20 June 2024.
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- ^ "Macron cible la gauche et brouille les pistes". Challenges. Agence France-Presse. 19 June 2024. Retrieved 21 June 2024.
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- ^ a b "Debout la France est fier de vous présenter ses 107 candidats aux élections législatives 2024". Debout la France. 19 June 2024. Retrieved 21 June 2024.
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