Israel–Hamas war protest vote movements

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The Israel–Hamas war protest vote movements are protest vote movements targeting the 2024 United States Democratic Party presidential primaries to protest US president Joe Biden's policy towards the Israel–Hamas war as part of larger Israel–Hamas war protests in the United States.[1][2] After a notable "uncommitted" vote in the US state of Michigan, activists sought to replicate the protest in other US states.[1][2][3] The movement is primarily led by a vocal minority[4] of Muslim Americans, Arab Americans, and progressives.[1][2]

While some activists under Abandon Biden argue against supporting Biden entirely during the 2024 general presidential election,[5] others in uncommitted movements have argued for using uncommitted votes during the presidential primary to push for pro-Palestinian action before the presidential election.[5][6] Both groups overlap and support each other's goals, to the point of being considered "twin" movements.[7][8]

"Ceasefire" movement

On January 18, 2024, voters promoting a ceasefire in the Israel–Hamas war launched a write-in campaign for "ceasefire" in the New Hampshire Democratic primary.[9] Since incumbent president Joe Biden had declined to appear on the ballot due to DNC sanctions, with allies instead mounting a write-in campaign, advocates of the ceasefire campaign hoped that the increased focus on the write-in section of election results would send a message.[10][better source needed] New Hampshire secretary of state David Scanlan indicated that these "ceasefire" votes were tallied.[11] Ultimately, "Ceasefire" received 1,497 votes, or 1.28%.[12]

Uncommitted movements

See also: Uncommitted (voting option) § Michigan, Minnesota, and Washington, 2024

The uncommitted movements are protest vote movements built around urging voters to write-in or check an uncommitted voting option to protest Biden's support for the Israel-Gaza war, and to push for a permanent ceasefire and ending military aide to Israel.[13] The movements aims to "make these changes ahead of the general election or risk losing Democratic voter support".[13]

2024 Michigan Democratic Primary

See also: 2024 Michigan Democratic presidential primary § Campaign for "uncommitted"

A movement for an uncommitted vote called Listen To Michigan was started by community organizers in Dearborn, including the younger sister to representative Rashida Tlaib with a budget of $250,000.[6] The group aimed to use the uncommitted vote during the presidential primary to send a message to the Biden campaign to support a ceasefire, or else lose the presidential election.[6][14] Both Rashida Tlaib and Dearborn mayor Abdullah Hammoud endorsed the campaign.[15] Democratic Majority for Israel ran opposition ads against the uncommitted movement, arguing that a vote for uncommitted would represent support for Trump.[16] Our Revolution endorsed the uncommitted movement and also helped support outreach for it.[5]

Though the campaign aimed originally for 10,000 votes, which was the margin by which Hillary Clinton lost in the 2016 election, which was considered a low vote total historically,[17] the final vote count exceeded it and reach 101,000 votes, or approximately 13.2% of the vote.[18] As a result, the campaign won 2 delegates to send to the 2024 Democratic National Convention.[19] While some progressive commentators, such as Michael Moore, stated that Biden's actions in Gaza could ultimately lose him the general election,[20][21][22] others, including Biden campaign officials, argued that the result matches similar uncommitted movements in 2012 and 2008 in Michigan.[23][24]

In March 2024, Listen To Michigan announced it was expanding into a national operation.[25]

2024 Super Tuesday uncommitted movement

See also: 2024 Minnesota Democratic presidential primary

After the Michigan result, organizers in several states launched similar campaigns.[13] However, most states do not have a dedicated "uncommitted" option, which can make organizing a protest vote more difficult.[5] Minnesota organizers launched a protest vote movement for "uncommitted" with only four days before the primary.[26] The movement was able to improve on Michigan's vote share,[27] winning over 18% of the vote and 11 delegates.[28][13][29] In North Carolina, where no actual candidates made the ballot other than Biden, 12% voted for "no preference," which some sources attributed to groups protesting Biden's support for Israel.[30][31] Multiple sources observed that though the movement had "spread to other base Democratic voters" besides Muslim Americans,[27][28] results from Super Tuesday suggested the Democratic Party "continues to coalesce around Biden."[27]

Other races

In the 2024 Hawaii Democratic presidential caucuses, the uncommitted vote achieved 455 votes, or nearly 29% of the vote total, which net the movement 6 delegates.[32] However, Hawaii did not appear to have any specific organized uncommitted movement organization.[33]

In Georgia, a coalition of multi-ethnic, multi-faith progressives launched a Listen to Georgia Coalition to replicate a similar protest movement.[34] Because Georgia does not release write-in candidate results, a local news organization looked at blank ballots instead, finding 3% of Democratic primary voters had submitted blank ballots within 5 counties.[35]

An effort was organized in Washington,[36] where uncommitted achieved slightly over 9% of the vote.[37]

A similar effort is being replicated in Connecticut,[38] Pennsylvania,[3][39] New Jersey,[40] and other states.[41] However, few races after Super Tuesday have dedicated uncommitted options, and those which do may not have many progressive, Muslim, or Arab American votes.[36]

Impact

Some argued that as a result of the uncommitted movement, Kamala Harris began calling for a 6 week ceasefire in the region.[13][42] Because the uncommitted option receives varied votes in each state during the primary, analysts find it "hard to compare apples-to-apples" the impact of the movement, especially with regards to past historical uncommitted vote results.[13][41][43]

Though Biden supporters and some analysts generally suggest that the uncommitted vote is similar to historical patterns, some progressives, including Ro Khanna argue that the pattern of the vote suggests “particular groups of our coalition that are upset.”[41] Some uncommitted results (i.e. North Carolina) are believed to be attributed to conservative “DINOs” (i.e. Democrats in Name Only) who vote uncommitted during the primary but would never vote Democrat during a general election.[44]

Abandon Biden movement

See also: Joe Biden 2024 presidential campaign § Arab and Muslim Americans

Abandon Biden was originally started in Minnesota but has since spread to other swing states, with the goal of preventing a second-term Biden presidency.[1][2][3] Many in the Abandon Biden movement have argued that Biden cannot undo damages, even if he called for a ceasefire[15] and some within the movement have argued even for voting for Republicans in order to deny Biden a victory,[45] though others say they will never vote for Trump and would instead write a third party candidate or abstain.[1][8]

Trump has notably suggested total war in Gaza, deporting refugees from Gaza, revoking visas of pro-Palestinian demonstrators, and reinstituting a "Muslim ban", which many Democrats have argued would allow them to win Muslim votes.[3] In addition, though Biden won many swing states by small margins, the Muslim American and Arab American proportion in most of those states constitutes a very small proportion of the electorate.[46][42] However, some commentators argued that small margins of victory in swing states may suggest that the groups could have outsized effects.[2][46] Michigan is noted as among the swing states with more than 200,000 Muslim voters, and 300,000 Arab Americans, well exceeding Biden's vote margin in 2020, and some have pointed out that disapproval with the conflict could be spreading to other groups such as youth and progressives.[18]

Other movements

A Black Muslim group called the Black Muslim Leadership Council has worked towards supporting the uncommitted movement, but have argued they would not necessarily abandon Biden during the presidential election.[47]

See also

References

  1. ^ a b c d e Hay, Andrew (3 December 2023). "Muslim Americans face 'Abandon Biden' dilemma - then who?". Reuters.
  2. ^ a b c d e Ward, Myah (2 December 2023). "Swing-state Muslim leaders launch campaign to 'abandon' Biden in 2024". Politico.
  3. ^ a b c d Schneider, Aliya (2024-02-19). "These Muslim activists in Pennsylvania want to 'abandon Biden' over Gaza". The Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved 2024-03-03.
  4. ^ Lerer, Lisa (March 28, 2024). "4 Presidents, 2 Events and a Preview of Campaign Clashes to Come". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved March 30, 2024. Nearly all Democratic Party officials, politicians and strategists stand behind his effort. Yet, he has faced sustained opposition from a vocal minority of progressives who have protested the war in Gaza, through protest votes and event disruptions.
  5. ^ a b c d Mueller, Julia (2024-02-29). "Biden critics look to replicate Michigan's 'uncommitted' vote in other states". The Hill. Retrieved 2024-03-03.
  6. ^ a b c Epstein, Reid J. (2024-02-06). "Group in Michigan Urges Protest Vote Against Biden Over Israel-Gaza War". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2024-03-03.
  7. ^ Gangitano, Alex (2024-02-19). "Michigan progressives angry over Gaza urge voters to ditch Biden in primary". The Hill. Retrieved 2024-03-03.
  8. ^ a b Stepansky, Joseph; Silmi, Malak. "Birth of a Movement: Michigan's Arab voters rise up to challenge Biden". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 2024-03-03.
  9. ^ Alpert, Arnie (January 18, 2024). "Primary write-in campaign launched for 'Ceasefire,' instead of Biden's name". The Telegraph. Archived from the original on January 20, 2024. Retrieved January 20, 2024.
  10. ^ "Vote Ceasefire – The future of American democracy is at stake". voteceasefire.info. January 22, 2024. Archived from the original on 2024-02-28. Retrieved 2024-03-03.
  11. ^ Winger, Richard (January 23, 2024). "New Hampshire Secretary of State Will Count Write-ins in Presidential Primaries for "Ceasefire"". Ballot Access News. Archived from the original on January 24, 2024. Retrieved January 23, 2024.
  12. ^ "2024 Democratic Presidential Primary Election Results". New Hampshire Secretary of State. Archived from the original on January 25, 2024. Retrieved January 24, 2024.
  13. ^ a b c d e f Moore, Elena (6 March 2024). "'Uncommitted' movement spreads to Super Tuesday states". NPR.
  14. ^ Egan, Lauren; Stokols, Eli; Johansen, Ben (27 February 2024). "Just how committed is uncommitted?". Politico.
  15. ^ a b Shalal, Andrea (6 February 2024). "Michigan Democrats, organizers urge 'uncommitted' vote in Feb. 27 primary". Reuters.
  16. ^ Lacy, Akela; Thaker, Prem (2024-02-23). "AIPAC Ally Slams "Uncommitted" Voters Warning Biden to Change Course on Gaza". The Intercept. Retrieved 2024-03-03.
  17. ^ "Michigan's 100,000 'uncommitted' votes show Israel impact on Biden". Reuters on MSN.com. Retrieved March 6, 2024.
  18. ^ a b Moore, Elena (28 February 2024). "The push to vote 'uncommitted' to Biden in Michigan exceeds goal". NPR.
  19. ^ "How 'uncommitted' won two delegates in Michigan's Democratic primary". AP News. 2024-02-28. Retrieved 2024-03-03.
  20. ^ Shahid, Waleed (2024-02-29). "Michigan's Democratic Voters Sent President Biden a Clear Message on Gaza". ISSN 0027-8378. Retrieved 2024-03-03.
  21. ^ "Opinion | Biden can't afford to ignore the 'uncommitted' voters in Michigan". MSNBC.com. 2024-02-29. Retrieved 2024-03-03.
  22. ^ "Michael Moore warns Biden's stance on Gaza could cost him election". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 6 March 2024.
  23. ^ Shapiro, Walter (2024-02-29). "The Media Is Overhyping the "Uncommitted" Threat to Biden". The New Republic. ISSN 0028-6583. Retrieved 2024-03-03.
  24. ^ Abutaleb, Yasmeen; Pager, Tyler; Scherer, Michael. "Sizable 'uncommitted' vote in Michigan ignites debate among Democrats". Washington Post.
  25. ^ Stepansky, Joseph. "How the uncommitted vote against Biden's Gaza policy is going 'national'". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 22 March 2024.
  26. ^ Masters, Clay (2024-03-01). "Organizers scramble to induce 'uncommitted' votes in Minnesota presidential primary". MPR News. Retrieved 2024-03-06.
  27. ^ a b c Haberkorn, Jennifer; Ward, Myah (5 March 2024). "Biden can't quite shake the protest vote, even on his big night". Politico.
  28. ^ a b Stepansky, Joseph. "Minnesota's 'stunning' uncommitted vote reveals enduring problem for Biden". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 2024-03-07.
  29. ^ "Super Tuesday Results: Key Races to Watch". The New York Times. 2024-03-05. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2024-03-06.
  30. ^ Nehamas, Nicholas; Epstein, Reid J. (5 March 2024). "'Uncommitted' voters showed their strength against Biden in Minnesota". NYTimes. Retrieved 6 March 2024.
  31. ^ Habeshian, Sareen; Hurt, Emma (5 March 2024). ""Uncommitted" vs. Biden: How the protest vote fared on Super Tuesday". Axios.
  32. ^ Press, Associated (2024-03-06). "Joe Biden easily wins Hawaii Democratic presidential caucuses". Honolulu Star-Advertiser. Retrieved 2024-03-07.
  33. ^ News, A. B. C. "'Uncommitted' Biden protest votes winning some delegates as he dominates Democratic primary". ABC News. Retrieved 2024-03-09. {{cite web}}: |last= has generic name (help)
  34. ^ Hellmann, Melissa (2024-03-06). "After Michigan success, Biden ballot protest movement heads to Georgia". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2024-03-07.
  35. ^ "Here's a look at how the 'Leave it Blank' protest campaign among Democratic voters in Georgia did". 11Alive.com. 2024-03-13. Retrieved 2024-03-18.
  36. ^ a b Shepard, Steven (12 March 2024). "Where the 'uncommitted' protest vote could jolt Biden". Politico.
  37. ^ "Washington Presidential Primary Election Live Results 2024". www.nbcnews.com. Retrieved 2024-03-18.
  38. ^ Fenster, Jordan Nathaniel (March 6, 2024). "'Uncommitted' primary votes were a protest against Biden on Super Tuesday. It could happen in CT". CT Insider. Retrieved March 9, 2024.
  39. ^ Schneider, Aliya (2024-03-05). "What is an uncommitted vote, and can it be done in Pennsylvania?". Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved 2024-03-07.
  40. ^ "It's not just Michigan. Some NJ voters vow to 'abandon Biden' in presidential primary". North Jersey Media Group. Retrieved 2024-03-08.
  41. ^ a b c "The Democratic protest vote movement over the Israel-Hamas war spreads from Michigan to other states". AP News. 2024-03-11. Retrieved 2024-03-11.
  42. ^ a b "Trump's Gaza comments highlight tough choice for peace-supporting US voters". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 2024-03-06.
  43. ^ Bump, Philip; Bronner, Lenny (6 March 2024). "The 'uncommitted' vote story isn't exactly what you might think". Washington Post.
  44. ^ Zhang, Christine (2024-03-19). "The Three Kinds of Biden Protest Voters". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2024-03-25.
  45. ^ Iqbal, Zainab (1 March 2024). "'Just because I can': The Arabs and Muslims voting for Donald Trump out of spite". Middle East Eye. Retrieved 2024-03-03.
  46. ^ a b Rakich, Nathaniel (28 February 2024). "Could Arab American and Muslim voters cost Biden the 2024 election?". ABC News. Retrieved 2024-03-03.
  47. ^ Alcindor, Yamiche (2024-03-01). "New Black Muslim group wants to put pressure on Biden — but not abandon him". NBC News. Retrieved 2024-03-03.
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