2024 Venezuelan presidential election

2024 Venezuelan presidential election

28 July 2024
Turnout	51.90% ( 6.17pp) CNE 61.35% ( 15.63pp) PUD
Candidate Nicolás Maduro Edmundo González Party PSUV Independent Alliance GPPSB PUD Popular vote 6,408,844 (CNE) 3,316,142 (PUD) 5,326,104 (CNE) 7,303,480 (PUD) Percentage 51.95% (CNE) 30.46% (PUD) 43.18% (CNE) 67.08% (PUD)
President before election Nicolás Maduro PSUV Elected President Nicolás Maduro (disputed with Edmundo González) PSUV Independent/PUD

Presidential elections were held in Venezuela on 28 July 2024 to choose a president for a six-year term beginning on 10 January 2025. The election has been politically contentious, with international monitors calling it neither free nor fair, citing the incumbent Maduro administration having controlled most institutions and repressed the political opposition before and during the election.

President Nicolás Maduro ran for a third consecutive term, while former diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia represented the Unitary Platform (Spanish: Plataforma Unitaria Democrática; PUD), the main opposition political alliance. The government disqualified other leading candidates of the Venezuelan opposition from participating in the election during their campaign or in previous elections. In June 2023, the Venezuelan government barred leading candidate María Corina Machado from participating. This move was regarded by the opposition as a violation of political human rights and has been condemned by international bodies such as the Organization of American States (OAS), the European Union, and Human Rights Watch, as well as numerous states.

Academics, news outlets and the opposition provided "strong evidence" according to The Guardian to suggest that González won the election by a wide margin, with the opposition releasing copies of official tally sheets collected by poll watchers from a majority of polling centers showing a landslide victory for González. The government-controlled National Electoral Council (CNE) announced falsified results claiming a narrow Maduro victory on 29 July. The CNE's results were rejected by the Carter Center and by the OAS. Analyses by media sources including the Associated Press, The Washington Post and El Espectador found the results statistically improbable and lacking in credibility.

In the aftermath of the government's announcement of falsified results, protests broke out across the country, and the Maduro administration detained opposition political figures while refusing to relinquish power; criminalization of protest was widely condemned by human rights organizations. Some world leaders rejected the CNE's claimed results and recognized González as the election winner, while some other countries, including Russia, China, and Iran, recognized Maduro as the winner. The first country to recognize González as Venezuela's president-elect was Peru, on 30 July. Political scientist Steven Levitsky called the official results "one of the most egregious electoral frauds in modern Latin American history."

Background

See also: Economy of Venezuela and Sanctions during the Venezuelan crisis

Democratic backsliding

The elections occurred within an authoritarian regime; Since the 1990s, there has been significant democratic backsliding in the nation, with an increasing trend towards authoritarianism.

Political scientist Steven Levitsky has considered "the years between 2004 and 2016 as a period of competitive authoritarianism" in which "government abuses power and violates rights such that the opposition is playing on a tilted playing field ... But there is a playing field, there is an opposition and there is real competition for power". Since Maduro's presidency in 2013, Levitsky has argued that the nation has "approached" the status of a full-scale dictatorship, particularly "since the largest opposition parties and major politicians were prohibited from running" in the 2018 Venezuelan presidential election.

Crisis in Venezuela

Main article: Crisis in Venezuela

Since 2010, Venezuela has been suffering a socioeconomic crisis under Maduro and briefly under his predecessor Hugo Chávez, with rampant crime, hyperinflation and shortages. As a result of discontent with the government, the opposition was elected to hold the majority in the National Assembly following the 2015 parliamentary election, for the first time since 1999. After the election, the lame duck National Assembly—with a pro-government majority—packed the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ), the highest court in Venezuela, with Maduro allies. The tribunal stripped three opposition lawmakers of their National Assembly seats in early 2016, citing alleged "irregularities" in their election, thereby preventing an opposition supermajority which would have been able to challenge President Maduro.

The TSJ approved several actions by Maduro and granted him more powers in 2017. As protests mounted against Maduro, he called for a constituent assembly that would draft a new constitution to replace the 1999 Venezuela Constitution created under Chávez. Many countries considered these actions a bid by Maduro to stay in power indefinitely, and over 40 countries stated that they would not recognize the 2017 Constituent National Assembly (ANC). The Democratic Unity Roundtable—the opposition to the incumbent ruling party—boycotted the election, saying that the ANC was "a trick to keep [the incumbent ruling party] in power". Since the opposition did not participate in the election, the incumbent Great Patriotic Pole, dominated by the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, won almost all seats in the assembly by default. On 8 August 2017, the ANC declared itself to be the government branch with supreme power in Venezuela, banning the opposition-led National Assembly from performing actions that would interfere with the assembly, while continuing to pass measures in "support and solidarity" with President Maduro, effectively stripping the National Assembly of all its powers.

2018 election and presidential crisis

Main articles: 2018 Venezuelan presidential election and Venezuelan presidential crisis

In February 2018, Maduro called for a presidential election to occur early—four months before the prescribed date of December. He was declared the winner in May 2018 after multiple major opposition parties were banned from participating, among other irregularities; many said the election was invalid. Politicians both internally and internationally said Maduro was not legitimately elected, and considered him an ineffective dictator. In the months leading up to his 10 January 2019 inauguration, Maduro was pressured to step down by nations and bodies including the Lima Group (excluding Mexico), the United States, and the OAS; this pressure was increased after the new National Assembly of Venezuela was sworn in on 5 January 2019. Between the May 2018 presidential election and Maduro's inauguration, there were calls to establish a transitional government.

Maduro's new six-year term did not begin until 10 January 2019, when he took his official oath at a public ceremony in Caracas in front of the Venezuelan Supreme Court. The election results were widely disputed both within Venezuela and in the broader international community. Some politicians both internally and internationally said Maduro was not legitimately elected That same month, the National Assembly invoked clauses of the 1999 Venezuelan Constitution to install National Assembly Speaker Juan Guaidó as acting president, precipitating the Venezuelan presidential crisis.

By January 2020, efforts led by Guaidó to create a transitional government had been unsuccessful and Maduro continued to control Venezuela's state institutions. In January 2021, the European Union stopped recognizing Guaidó as president, but still did not recognize Maduro as the legitimate president; the European Parliament reaffirmed its recognition of Guaidó as president, and the EU threatened with further sanctions. After the announcement of regional elections in 2021, Guaidó announced a "national salvation agreement" and proposed the negotiation with Maduro with a schedule for free and fair elections, with international support and observers, in exchange for lifting international sanctions.

In December 2022, three of the four main opposition political parties (Justice First, Democratic Action and A New Era) backed and approved a reform to dissolve the interim government and create a commission of five members to manage foreign assets, as deputies sought a united strategy ahead of the 2024 elections, stating that the interim government had failed to achieve the goals it had set.

2020 transitional government proposal

On 31 March 2020, the United States proposed a transitional government that would exclude both Maduro and Guaidó from the presidency. The deal would enforce a power-sharing scenario between the different government factions. Elections would have to be held within the year, and all foreign militaries, particularly Cuba and Russia, would have to leave the country. The US were still seeking Maduro's arrest at the time of the announcement. Other aspects of the US deal would include releasing all political prisoners and setting up a five-person council to lead the country; two members each chosen by Maduro and Guaidó would sit on the council, with the last member selected by the four. The European Union also agreed to remove sanctions if the deal went ahead. Experts have noted that the deal is similar to earlier proposals but explicitly mentions who would lead a transitional government, something which stalled previous discussions, and comes shortly after the US indicted Maduro, which might pressure him to peacefully leave power.

Guaidó accepted the proposal, while Venezuela's foreign minister, Jorge Arreaza, rejected it and declared that only the parliamentary election would take place in 2020.

Opposition primaries

Main article: 2023 Unitary Platform presidential primaries

In November 2022, Diosdado Cabello, vice-president of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), insisted that the presidential election be moved forward to the first semester of 2023, stating that the opposition would end up confronting each other if this were the case considering that the primaries to define the candidate to represent them were planned for the same year. The 2023 Unitary Platform presidential primaries were held on 22 October 2023.

June

A group of women identified with the ruling party insulted and physically assaulted pre-candidate Henrique Capriles during a visit to Santa Inés, Carabobo state, in an attempt to disrupt his campaign.

On 30 June 2023, the Comptroller General announced that pre-candidate and former National Assembly member María Corina Machado was disqualified from holding public office for 15 years, linking her to alleged crimes of Juan Guaidó, as well as supporting international sanctions against the country. She was allowed to participate in the opposition primaries because they are not regulated by Maduro's government. Capriles was given the same sentence and barred from holding office until 2032. Analysts stated that the accusations were incoherent, as Machado was not a member of the 2015 opposition National Assembly (having been disqualified by the Comptroller's Office), in addition to never having served in Guaidó's interim government. The disqualification was considered illegal and unconstitutional by several jurists, including constitutional lawyer Allan Brewer Carías. The Latin American and Caribbean Network for Democracy cited the precedent of the Petro Urrego v. Colombia sentence of the Inter-American Court of Human Rights in 2020, which determined that "it is a serious violation of political human rights if an administrative authority, and not a judge through due judicial process, politically disqualifies a citizen".

July

On 10 July 2023, reported militants of the Communist Party of Venezuela filed a writ of amparo to the Supreme Tribunal of Justice to appoint an ad hoc board considering to the party, saying that it is "kidnapped" by its general secretary Óscar Figuera. The action followed the pattern of the Democratic Action, Copei and Tupamaro parties, where new presidencies were imposed judicially, co-opting the name and symbols of the parties. Communist movements in Latin America expressed their support for the party, as well as the Communist Workers' Platform USA and the American Council of Bolsheviks, who said in a joint statement "the [United Socialist Party of Venezuela] (PSUV), as a servant of the bourgeoisie, can never fulfill their false promise of socialism".

Eight of the thirteen opposition candidates held a debate in the Universidad Católica Andrés Bello. It was the first presidential debate in Venezuela in 11 years. The participants were María Corina Machado for Vente Venezuela, Carlos Prosperi for Democratic Action, Freddy Superlano for Popular Will, transgender candidate Tamara Adrián for Unidos por la Dignidad, Delsa Solórzano for Encuentro Ciudadano, Andrés Velásquez for La Causa R, César Pérez Vivas for Concertación Ciudadana and Andrés Caleca for Movimiento por Venezuela.

The Venezuelan fact checking outlet Cazadores de Fake News denounced an operation to discredit María Corina Machado. The operation was promoted by a disinformation network that originally spread disinformation about Leopoldo López, Juan Guaidó and other opposition politicians. Pro-government militants tried to attack María Corina during a 15 July campaign act in Vargas state. The following day, they prevented a campaign rally in Petare, in the east of Caracas. On 22 July, Vente Venezuela denounced death threats to Machado by the National Liberation Army (ELN), a far-left Colombian guerrilla group, after her campaign headquarters in La Fría, Táchira state, was painted overnight with messages such as "death to María Corina" and "primaries without María Corina", signed by the ELN. The group denied being the authors of those threats.

On 27 July, the Popular Will denounced that Freddy Superlano, the party's pre-candidate, had his passport taken away by Venezuelan authorities at the Atanasio Girardot international bridge on the border with Colombia.

August

Pre-candidate Delsa Solórzano denounced death threats involving the ELN, including messages on social media such as "the collective forces of the ELN are going to kill you". Followers of Henrique Capriles said that Chavistas attacked Capriles supporters at a rally in Apure state. According to his party, Justice First, this was the seventh aggression against the pre-candidate or his followers since 29 May.

On 14 August, the Unitary Platform issued a communiqué rejecting statements by government authorities linking the opposition primaries to political violence.

October

On 12 October, political organization Fuerza Vecinal requested the primaries be suspended, arguing that conditions for primaries were not met. On the day before the primaries, the National Union of Press Workers denounced that the regulatory entity CONATEL prohibited several media from covering the elections, causing the main radio circuits and some television channels in Venezuela to suspend operations.

Conduct

In the early morning of 22 October, the day of the primary, Acción Democrática candidate, Carlos Prosperi, insulted journalist Eugenio Martínez after Martínez questioned accusations about the process of designation of table members.

The president of the National Primary Commission (CP), Jesus María Casal, offered the first balance of the primaries around 9:15 am, stating that by that time more than 70% of the polling stations had been installed and that by then no incidents had been registered.

In the morning, in the El Guarataro neighborhood of western Caracas, colectivos prevented the installation of the voting center in the area. The non-governmental organization Voto Joven denounced that the groups stole material from a voting table and that violence with a firearm was registered. Neighbors of the neighborhood installed the voting center after the intimidation. In Plaza La Estrella, in Caracas, the beginning of voting was postponed due to the intentional burning of garbage in the center of the voting point. Nuns of the Patronato San José de Tarbes denounced that voters who tried to participate were threatened by colectivos, and that the center had to be moved to another location. Also in the morning, armed civilians entered the voting point La Cañada, in San Juan parish, pointed at the coordinator of the voting center and took away a table during the beginning of the process, firing several shots.

In Santa Rosalía parish, motorcyclists threw a tear gas cannister in the vicinity of the voting center. The point remained open and voters continued with the process. In the afternoon, two men fired shots into the air at the voting point in Las Acacias, Caracas. Voters temporarily dispersed before returning to the polling place again.

The vice-president of the Regional Board of Monagas state, Dexcy Moya, denounced that colectivos shouted expletives and threats in several voting centers in Maturin.

From his polling station, Prosperi criticized again the organization of the primary election, stating that in some polling stations there was no distribution of electoral material. Prosperi was booed by the voters present. A video was later leaked on social networks where Prosperi disowned in advance the results of the primaries, before they were announced. His party Acción Democrática rejected the statements, saying that "it does not represent the position of the party" and to be "firm with unity".

Exclusion of Machado and broken 2023 deal

In May 2023, the Unitary Platform announced primaries would be held to choose a single candidate for the presidential election. The October 2023 Unitary Platform presidential primaries was won in a landslide by María Corina Machado. A few months earlier, in 30 June 2023, she had been disqualified for fifteen years by the Comptroller General of Venezuela. The sentence was then pending a decision in court.

In October 2023, a deal was made between the opposition and Maduro's government over the holding of free and fair elections and the US in return for easing sanctions over the sale of oil.

María Corina Machado disqualification was however confirmed by the Supreme Court of Justice of Venezuela in January 2024. Moreover, following the poor turnout in the 2023 Venezuelan referendum, the chief prosecutor of Venezuela, Tarek William Saab, accused opposition leaders of sabotaging the referendum and issued arrest warrants for 15 of them, with charges such as treason and conspiracy. This appeared to be a further attempt to suppress political opposition ahead of the 2024 presidential election, despite free and fair elections being agreed with the US as a condition for lifting sanctions. María Corina Machado and her supporters said they were attacked by colectivos during a February 2024 campaign rally in Charallave, Miranda state. Machado denounced that the attack occurred in front of security officials, who did not intervene. With the main opposition candidate being banned from running, the US claimed Maduro's government had "fallen short" on its commitments, and reinstated the oil sanctions in April 2024.

Organizations such as the United Nations, the Organization of American States, the European Union, and Human Rights Watch, as well as countries such as Colombia, Paraguay, Uruguay, Ecuador, United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Chile, Canada and France, rejected the political disqualification of opposition pre-candidate María Corina Machado. Several foreign political leaders have condemned her disqualification, such as President Luis Lacalle Pou of Uruguay, President Mario Abdo Benítez of Paraguay, and President Gustavo Petro of Colombia, who in the past was also disqualified by an administrative instance and the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights restored his political rights. At the Mercosur summit, President Alberto Fernández of Argentina, and President Lula da Silva of Brazil, refused to reject the disqualification. Antony Blinken, U.S. Secretary of State, called Machado's disqualification "deeply unfortunate". The European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, stated that the disqualification "undermines democracy". On 13 July 2023, the European Parliament passed a resolution condemning the disqualification.

Election dates and new law

The presidential election was scheduled to be held in 2024; according to the Venezuelan Constitution, presidential elections are to take place no later than December in the election year.

The National Election Council (CNE) announced in March 2024 that the election would be held on 28 July, the day that would have been Hugo Chávez's 70th birthday, with filing of candidacies taking place from 21 to 25 March and campaigning from 4 to 25 July. On 2 April, Delcy Rodríguez presented the Law against Fascism, Neofascism and Similar Expressions to the V National Assembly of Venezuela, controlled by the Maduro administration; it passed its first reading that day. The law, which would need a second hearing, would create penalties including increased sentences for organizations that promote what Maduro's government defines as fascism; critics say it would be used to limit opposition to Maduro's government ahead of the July election.

Negotiations with United States

Further information: Foreign policy of the United States

Direct talks between senior Venezuelan and United States officials that had been stalled since mid-April were restarted in early July, a few weeks prior to the election. In 2023, the Biden administration had relaxed some sanctions on Venezuela based on Maduro being willing to hold free and fair elections. According to The Washington Post, the US was willing to remove all sanctions if conditions were met, but the Maduro-controlled Venezuelan Supreme Court made Machado ineligible for the presidency in January 2024. The opposition was not included in the negotiations. Former US ambassador to Venezuela Bill Brownfield stated that the US deal was "looser than it should have been" and "Maduro got, front-ended, all of the benefits he was supposed to get in exchange for promises to comply with in the future. He didn't comply, but he got the stuff he really wanted." Several proposals to grant immunity to the loser of the election have been proposed; while the US restarted talks in the hope of furthering a fair election, the opposition held out "that a strong showing will force Maduro to the table".

Electoral process

See also: Elections in Venezuela § Polling procedure

The President of Venezuela is elected by plurality in a single round of voting. On 5 March 2024, the National Electoral Council in Venezuela called the presidential election for 28 July 2024, also announcing events and dates on the electoral schedule:

№	Event	Dates		Status
		Start	End
1	Call for the process	5 March 2024		Finished
2	Special registration day for the Electoral Registry	18 March 2024	16 April 2024	Finished
3	Selection of members of subordinate organizations	20 March 2024		Finished
4	Registration of candidates for the presidency	21 March 2024	25 March 2024	Finished
5	Electoral Registration Court	16 April 2024		Finished
6	Election campaigning	4 July 2024	25 July 2024	Finished
7	Presidential election	28 July 2024		Finished

Venezuelan elections are overseen by the National Electoral Council (CNE), with poll workers drafted via a lottery of registered voters. Polling places are equipped with multiple high-tech touch-screen DRE voting machines, one to a "mesa electoral", or voting "table". After the vote is cast, each machine prints out a paper ballot, also known as a Voter-verified paper audit trail, which is inspected by the voter and deposited in a ballot box belonging to the machine's table. The voting machines perform in a stand-alone fashion, disconnected from any network until the polls close. Voting session closure at each of the voting stations in a given polling center is determined either by the lack of further voters after the lines have emptied, or by the hour, at the discretion of the president of the voting table.

Poll witnesses

Venezuelan law provides for representatives of the opposition to observe at each voting place; anyone can witness the electoral process. Each machine prints tally sheets (actas de escrutinio or actas) after the polls close, showing how many votes were received by each candidate, and representatives of the parties receive a copy. After the secretary of the voting table and the witnesses accredited by the CNE agree that the acta tally matches the paper receipts in the ballot boxes, they sign the acta, which is transmitted to the CNE and signed copies are given to the witnesses. CNE typically posts counts, but not images of the tally sheets.

Lester Toledo, a strategist for the opposition, told the Miami Herald that—anticipating fraud in the vote tally—the opposition coordinated for several months before the election to arrange 600,000 volunteers into "command" groups of 10 (comanditos) to include "witnesses for each voting machine, lookouts outside the centers to ensure everything ran smoothly and monitors who made sure the actas were printed and then taken to outside locations to be scanned and, ultimately, uploaded to a centralized cloud". The Associated Press reported that 90,000 opposition party representatives were trained to use a custom-made app to report results and irregularities, and had been instructed not to leave polling centers before obtaining a copy of the tally sheets. Volunteers obtained over 80% of the actas, uploaded 24,576 of them, and tallied the votes by using the QR codes printed on each one.

Following the election, the opposition published a database and searchable website with images of the tally sheets, which registered voters can check and which they have provided to international observers and on a second website. Parties and governments disputing the government results have urged the CNE to produce the tally sheets to verify its count.

Number of voters and voting stations

The first issue of the Electoral Gazette reported that Venezuela's Electoral Registry had 21,010,514 registered voters. Of these, 20,675,478 were in Venezuela, 107,836 were abroad, and 227,200 were foreign citizens in the country. The NGO Súmate noted a decline in registered voters over the past six publications in 2021 and 2022, with 84,115 fewer voters since the last publication. They also highlighted that 53,991 voters had objections and couldn't vote, urging them to check their status on the Electoral Council's website and file a claim if necessary.

On election day, 15,767 poll stations had been set up by 08:20 local time, which amounted to 95% of the total, according to CNE.

Observers

There were very few independent international election observers.

Carter Center

On 20 June 2024, the Carter Center agreed to send observers in response to concerns about the lack of sufficient independent monitors, which could undermine the legitimacy of the election results. The Carter Center sent only "small technical team", according to the BBC of 17 experts to 4 cities.

United Nations

On 25 June 2024, the United Nations announced that it would send four monitors, following the opposition's refusal to sign an agreement recognizing the presidential vote's results. The UN team would independently produce a confidential report for the Secretary-General of the United Nations, including recommendations for future elections in Venezuela.

Invited participants

Following the requirements stipulated in the Barbados Agreement for transparent elections with observers, the Maduro administration invited over 600 international participants. Along with groups such as the United Nations, invitees were members from the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States and the African Union and representatives from Iran, China, Russia and Nicaragua, among others.

BBC News stated that Maduro "welcomed hundreds of guests from countries allied with his government, who he says will 'accompany' the vote." Clarin wrote that some invited envoys "were allowed entry on the condition that they belong to leftist organizations and not criticize the government; Clarin stated that "The observers are limited and cannot declare or express their opinion within Venezuela."

According to France 24, "numerous international actors, who were expected to participate in the oversight, have denounced that Chavismo has revoked their accreditations, while the opposition denounce[d] obstacles for their guests", adding that "not all actors accredited to verify the functioning of Venezuelan democracy have the same powers" and that the "Carter Center and the United Nations mission were the only missions accredited to carry out mere technical observation work, that is, limited."

Infobae wrote that the guests received as observers were "allies" of the Maduro administration who would not criticize, while others were not allowed to enter.

European Union

On 28 May 2024, the CNE revoked its invitation for observers from the European Union, citing existing sanctions against Elvis Amoroso, the head of the CNE and a Maduro ally.

After the European Parliament passed a resolution condemning the political disqualification of opposition pre-candidate María Corina Machado, the president of the pro-government National Assembly, Jorge Rodríguez, declared on 13 July 2023 that the Venezuelan government would not allow a European Union electoral observation mission.

Argentina and Brazil

On 17 July 2024, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) of Brazil, which had previously rejected the invitation from Maduro's government to send observers, announced a reversal of its decision, stating that it would send two observers. The TSE later informed Brazil's Ministry of Foreign Affairs that it would dispatch Sandra Damiani, director of the TSE's Electoral Management Advisory, and José de Melo Cruz, head of the Electoral Systems Coordination.

On 22 July 2024, Brazilian President Lula da Silva stated: "If Maduro wants to contribute for growth to return to Venezuela, for people who left Venezuela to come back and to establish a state of economic growth, he needs to respect the democratic process." Lula, who had previously refused to openly criticize Maduro, said he would send former foreign minister Celso Amorim to watch the election.

On 24 July 2024, TSE announced it would no longer send observers to the election in light of statements by Maduro in which, without proof, he accused the Brazilian electoral system of not being auditable. Nonetheless, Brazil's observation went on as planned.

Former Argentine president Alberto Fernández was uninvited to observe after agreeing with Lula.

Other countries

Spanish left-wing parties Podemos, United Left, Galician Nationalist Bloc and EH Bildu sent observers. Officials from Spain (ten members of its parliament), Portugal, and Colombia (senator Angelica Lozano) said they were denied entry to Venezuela days before the election.

A Copa Airlines flight from Panama bound for Caracas the day before the vote with former presidents Mireya Moscoso (Panama), Miguel Angel Rodriguez (Costa Rica), Jorge Quiroga (Bolivia) and Vicente Fox (Mexico), as well as Marta Lucia Ramirez (former Colombian vice president), was unable to depart Panama until the former officials deplaned.

Chilean Senators Felipe Kast and Rojo Edwards were deported by Venezuelan authorities a day after arriving to observe the vote. Francisco Paoltroni, president of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Argentine Senate, invited by the opposition for the election, was also deported. Former Mayor of Bogotá, Claudia López, was also expelled from Venezuela after arriving to observe the election. Uruguayan deputy Pablo Viana was deported from Venezuela after being invited by the opposition to attend the election.

Colombia was invited but did not send observers, with officials stating that the timing of the electoral process was inadequate for technical preparations.

Candidates

The Great Simón Bolívar Patriotic Pole

On 16 March 2024, the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) formally announced that incumbent President Nicolás Maduro would be their candidate to run in the presidential election. This will be Maduro's third run for a six-year term as president. Maduro officially registered his candidacy on 25 March.

Unitary Platform

On 16 May 2023, the Unitary Platform announced the holding of a primary process to elect a single candidate for the presidential election, the 2023 Unitary Platform presidential primaries. On 24 July 2023, the application period ended, in which 14 candidates registered. After the primary election was held on 22 October 2023, a first bulletin was released with only 26% counted and the winner was María Corina Machado, sweeping more than 90% of the vote. On 23 October, the second electoral bulletin of the National Primary Commission was delivered, where it was announced that with 92.65% counted, Corina Machado maintained more than 90% of the votes and was determined to be the candidate for the Unitary Platform for the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election.

On 22 March 2024, María Corina Machado announced that historian and professor Corina Yoris was selected as the presidential candidate of the Venezuelan opposition due to Machado's disqualification.

Yoris was unable to officially register as a candidate in the presidential election, with Unitary Platform representatives saying that the electoral commission had blocked her registration. Following outcry from countries including the US, Brazil, Colombia, and Guatemala the Unitary Platform registered former diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia as its temporary candidate pending the selection of another one. On 19 April 2024, the Unitary Platform voted, alongside the cooperation of aspiring candidate Governor Manuel Rosales, to have González Urrutia be the only candidate that represents the Venezuelan opposition. Rosales accepted this result, leaving González Urrutia to be the official opposition candidate for the July election.

A New Era

Governor Manuel Rosales officially inscribed and launched his candidacy for president "at the last minute"—a move that took the Unitary Platform by surprise, though he indicated he would cede his position to a unified opposition candidate. Rosales has been recognized as a more moderate opposition candidate and has been negotiable with the Maduro government; he recognized Maduro's contested 2018 election and condemned sanctions on Venezuela enacted by the United States.

On 19 April 2024, A New Era and the Unitary Platform announced that, after a unanimous vote, Rosales would withdraw from the race and endorse Edmundo González.

Democratic Alliance

At the moment, the Democratic Alliance, which has stated that it would not participate in the Unitary Platform's primary process, has not yet said by which means it will elect its candidate. Nonetheless, they have expressed their intentions for their nominee to be the sole candidate of the opposition.

On 22 April 2024, Juan Carlos Alvarado pulled out of the race to support Luis Eduardo Martínez. Martínez stated that if elected, he would appoint Alvarado as vice president.

Major candidates

Candidate				Party and Coalition	Ref.
			Edmundo González Urrutia	Independent (Ind.) Unitary Platform (PUD) Slogan: Edmundo for the world!
			Nicolás Maduro	United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) Great Patriotic Pole (GPPSB) Slogan: #ElQueVaEsNicolás

Other candidates

During the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election, eleven candidates without significant representation were registered following the Maduro administration's veto of opposition candidates María Corina Machado and Corina Yoris. Chavismo in Venezuela allowed the registration of candidates considered to be collaborators, false opposition, and politicians aligned with the Bolivarian strategy for the July 2024 presidential election, while blocking genuine opposition candidates.

Among these candidates are individuals with ties to Chavismo and diverse figures such as a comedian and an evangelical pastor. Luis Eduardo Martínez, a deputy for Acción Democrática (AD), has held positions as governor and councilor. Daniel Ceballos, former mayor of San Cristóbal and former member of the opposition student movement, has been favored by the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ). Antonio Ecarri, with a background in education and public management, has declined multiple candidacies in his political career. Juan Carlos Alvarado, current Secretary-General of COPEI, was appointed by the TSJ and has validated the Chavismo's control of the Parliament. Benjamín Rausseo, a comedian and businessman known as "Er Conde del Guácharo", has made previous attempts for public office. Javier Bertucci, an evangelical pastor and deputy, has a criminal record related to diesel smuggling. José Brito, a former member of Primero Justicia, has been accused of corruption and collaborating with the administration to prevent the re-election of Juan Guaidó. Claudio Fermín, with extensive political experience and positions in the Executive Branch, has been an unsuccessful presidential candidate several times. Luis Ratti, a businessman and preacher, requested the suspension of opposition primaries. Enrique Márquez, a former rector of the National Electoral Council (CNE), has held seats in the National Assembly and served as its vice president (2016–2017, after the electoral victory of the opposition). Finally, Manuel Rosales, current governor of Zulia and member of Un Nuevo Tiempo, has a history of confrontation and collaboration with Chavismo, having been a presidential candidate in 2006 and faced accusations of illicit enrichment.

Candidate				Party and/or Coalition	Ref.
			Luis Eduardo Martínez	Democratic Action (AD) Slogan: United we live better
			José Brito	Venezuela First (PV)
			Antonio Ecarri Angola	Pencil Alliance (Lápiz)
			Enrique Márquez	Centrados en la Gente (CG) transl. People-centered
			Benjamín Rausseo	National Democratic Confederation (CONDE) Slogan: With Rausseo, I stand up!
			Javier Bertucci	Hope for Change (El Cambio) Slogan: Yes, there is hope!
			Claudio Fermín	Solutions for Venezuela (SPV)
			Daniel Ceballos	Country Renewal and Hope Assembly (AREPA)

Conduct and irregularities

Disqualification of political parties

On 17 March, the CNE disqualified 16 political parties from nominating candidates in the presidential election, after not reaching 1% of the minimum votes in the 2021 Venezuelan regional elections, without offering a validation or repair process required by electoral law. The parties disqualified included: Adelante, Centrados, Única, National Convergence, Suma País, Encuentro Ciudadano, Generación Independiente (Gente), Partido Unión y Entendimiento (Puente), Movimiento al Socialismo (Venezuela) (MAS), Fuerza del Cambio (FDC), Nueva Visión para mi País (Nuvipa), Unidad Política Popular 89 (UPP-89), Unión y Progreso (Venezuela), Prociudadanos (LPC), Compromiso País (Compa).

Blocking of the CNE portal

Following the end of the registration period for candidates on 25 March, María Corina Machado said the next day that the Unitary Platform was prevented from registering Corina Yoris's candidacy, while Manuel Rosales said that he did not represent the Unitary Platform. Shortly afterwards, the CNE, following international pressure, authorized a 12-hour extension to register candidates, which enabled the Unitary Platform card to provisionally register its candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia.

Obstruction in overseas voting

See also: Voter suppression

Hunger strike in Madrid demanding the opening of the Electoral Registry abroad

Venezuelan opposition on the Colombian side of the Simón Bolívar International Bridge

The special day for voter registration abroad was marred by delays in the process of up to five days, as occurred in Spain, Argentina, Peru and Chile. Citizens complained that they were not able to register or update their data. The head of the negotiating delegation of the Unitary Platform, Gerardo Blyde, said the government was unwilling to guarantee the participation of Venezuelans abroad.

The requirements for voters to register abroad are very restrictive and not contemplated in the constitution. Requirements included a current passport (one of the most expensive in the world to obtain) and having permanent residence; the majority have the PTP (Temporary Permission to Stay) or PPT (Permission for Temporary Protection) and do not have residence, consequently, very few are registered.

On 16 April, registration and updating of the Electoral Registry of Venezuela concluded. With approximately 7.7 million Venezuelans abroad, 80% of whom have the right to vote, the CNE only authorized some consulates to hold registration; many Venezuelans could not register because there was no authorized consulate or it was very far from their location. In many of the consulates, delays were observed and the CNE registered little political interest in solving the problem; the majority of voters abroad register an opposition tendency. David Smolansky, former mayor of El Hatillo, accused the administration of blocking the registration of at least 4.5 million Venezuelans abroad through "a policy of systematic and generalized discrimination" as well as its "requirements to register and change residence address" that led to "queues at the consulates".

According to a preliminary report on 2 May from the CNE, of the almost 7.7 million Venezuelans abroad, only 69,189 will be able to vote, of which only 6,020 citizens abroad managed to change their voting center in Venezuela to the country where they reside. The number of new people registered to vote abroad was negligible due to the number of requirements imposed by the CNE and the Foreign Ministry: in Mexico 69 people managed to register as new voters, in Spain 97, in Argentina 27; in Colombia only 25; in Ecuador 13 and in Peru only six. The exact number of citizens able to vote is 21,402,220 citizens, of which only 69,189 will be able to do so outside the country.

In mid-June the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) demanded that Venezuela "adopt the necessary measures" to guarantee the right to vote for compatriots abroad for the presidential elections. He reiterated that "a genuine commitment to democracy requires that the State immediately reestablish the separation and independence of public powers".

Harassment, intimidation and other irregularities

Along with the issues in overseas voter registration and voting that "effectively disenfranchised most of the migrant population", the Carter Center listed other problems with the electoral process. Checkpoints were placed near polling stations to intimidate voters. Individuals and companies providing services to the opposition were harassed and intimidated. The TSJ replaced the leadership of opposition political parties with those who supported Maduro. The Maduro campaign frequently used government vehicles and social programs to promote their campaign.

The New York Times stated that irregularities on election day throughout the country "provoked fury". Intimidation of voters with violence and threats, and by state forces, included an example in Cumaná, where dozens of armed authorities lined up at a polling station. In one city, voters reported that government security forced tried to replace designated witnesses with their own personnel. The Venezuelan Electoral Observatory said that 17,000 voters found their polling place changed at the last minute; a New York Times reporter was detained after trying to enter an unofficial polling place. Voting centers stayed open past the required closing time to allow Maduro supporters to round up more votes. Some voting centers refused to print the vote tallies as required by law. From January to 26 July 2024, Foro Penal said that 135 individuals associated with the Gonzalez campaign had been arrested.

According to Toledo, as the polls were about to close, "he received reports from about 90% of the volunteers that the government had ordered election workers to not print the actas. But after a tense period of back-and-forth, soldiers with the national guard allowed most volunteers to take the actas home anyway." Inside the CNE as the machine vote tallies were being received, the two witnesses from the opposition were denied entry, and according to the Miami Herald, "Enrique Marquez, one of a handful of presidential candidates, said his own campaign monitor was allowed in the room and reported that the Council did not print the results of the election."

CNE rectors

In August 2023, the NGO Súmate denounced that at least 92 candidates for rectors of the CNE were linked to Chavismo, pointing out that article 9 of the Organic Law of Electoral Processes prohibits members of the Council to have any political affiliation. Sumate also stated that one of the nominees had been convicted for homicide and extortion in 1998, that 46 candidates repeated the candidacy after running in 2021 and that by that time they were deputies of the pro-government National Assembly. On 15 August, the pro-government National Assembly declared itself in permanent session to appoint the new CNE rectors.

Censorship

Further information: Censorship in Venezuela

TechRadar reported that websites, including Wikipedia and voting information websites, were blocked in Venezuela beginning on 28 July.

VE Sin Filtro, a non-governmental organization that monitors internet censorship, reported that more than 60 news providers are blocked in Venezuela, including 17 new sites that were blocked after the election campaigns started.

Ex Clé

The Argentine firm Ex Clé provided the technological platform for voting in the presidential election. Significant transactions moving from Venezuela through Ex Clé's accounts in banks in Uruguay and the United States triggered alerts from Argentina's Anti-Money Laundering Unit. The firm, which owns the voting machines and electronic counting software, came under suspicion, according to Infobae, when the Argentine anti-money laundering unit reported "the triangulation of funds (by EX Clé) through third countries without apparent economic justification" and "transfers abroad whose destinations could be questionable", among other concerns according to Argentine Law No. 25,246 on money laundering.

Endorsements

Main article: List of endorsements in the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election

After she was barred from running, Machado's endorsement of González was an important factor in the election as he gained support from even former socialist supporters of the government, along with support from the Machado-led opposition.

Opinion polls

Further information: Polls in Venezuela

As of July 2024, most polls favored González Urrutia to win by a wide margin; this trend was particularly true from the higher-quality pollsters in Venezuela.

An exit poll by Edison Research—which, according to The Guardian, "conducts high-profile election polling in the US and other countries"—gave González 65% of the vote and Maduro 31%.

Alleged manipulation of polls

Further information: Polling in Venezuela § 2024 presidential election

During the run-up to the election, several news outlets reported on the proliferation of polls favoring Maduro published since May 2024 by previously unknown polling firms, fuelling concerns that some polls were being used as propaganda tools by Chavismo. These poll results differed significantly from those published by more traditional pollsters, which showed Maduro trailing.

According to Medianálisis, Efecto Cocuyo, Cazadores de Fake News and Probox, working with the Latin American Center for Investigative Journalism, these polls were being used to discredit opposition candidates in what some outlets called a "poll war". Polls showing Maduro ahead were predominantly disseminated by media outlets claimed to be pro-Maduro, such as Globovisión, El Universal, Venezuela News, Correo del Orinoco and NotiTarde.

Six pollsters consistently placed opposition candidate González in first place, while others placed Maduro in front. Well-known pollsters in the Venezuelan political sphere, such as Datanálisis, Datincorp, Delphos, and Consultores 21, along with the emerging Poder y Estrategia, indicated that Urrutia had more than 50% of voting intentions. Results by lesser-known firms Hinterlaces, ICS Latam, IMC Orientación, and DataViva, among others, showed Maduro with between 54% and 70% of votes. Results by CECA Consultores showed a technical tie slightly favoring the opposition.

On 28 May, Colombian newspaper El Tiempo named IdeaDatos and Data Viva as examples of suspicious pollsters. NTN 24 singled out Insight in June 2024, writing that "Eight of ten [recent] polls give the winner to the opposition candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia, and the only two that give victory to ... Maduro, are unknown firms and their social media accounts are recent", adding that IdeaDatos and PoliAnalítico "actively campaign for Nicolás Maduro".

Venezuelan independent journalism website Efecto Cocuyo published several detailed exposés of pollsters, alleging faulty methodology, systematic bias in favor of Maduro, and repeated dissemination of their polls by pro-Maduro outlets. Polling firms alleged to be unreliable include IdeaDatos, CMIDE, Parametrica, Hinterlaces, IMC Orientación, and ICS Latam.

Exit polls

Pollster	Date conducted	Sample size	Nicolás Maduro PSUV	Edmundo González PUD
Edison Research	28 July 2024	6,846	31%	65%
Meganalisis	28 July 2024		14%	65%

After the official confirmation of candidates

Pollster	Date(s) conducted	Sample size	Nicolás Maduro PSUV	Edmundo González PUD	Luis Eduardo Martínez AD	Antonio Ecarri Lápiz	Benjamín Rausseo CONDE	Claudio Fermín SPV	Javier Bertucci El Cambio	José Brito PV	Daniel Ceballos AREPA	Enrique Márquez CG	Others	Undecided	None/Not voting
28 July 2024		Presidential election
25 July 2024		End of the electoral campaigns
21 July 2024		Closing of the legal period for polling
Poder y Estrategia	15–20 July 2024	1,100	21%	64%	1%	2%	2%	1%	2%	0.2%	0.4%	0.4%	-	6%	-
Hercon Consultores	19 July 2024	1,200	29.8%	63.3%	0.8%	1.2%	1.5%	-	0.6%	-	-	-	0.5%	2.3%	-
4 July 2024		Start of the electoral campaigns
Hercon Consultores	20 June – 3 July 2024	1,200	28.1%	62.1%	0.6%	1.3%	2.6%	-	0.5%	-	-	-	0.4%	1.5%	3%
ORC Consultores	22–28 June 2024	1,177	14.5%	58.6%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	4.3%	22.6%
Meganalisis	17–22 June 2024	1,123	11.3%	68.4%	-	1.8%	0.7%	-	1.5%	-	-	0.2%	0.6%	8.3%	7.2%
Hercon Consultores	10 June 2024	1,000	24.1%	61.1%	0.8%	2.8%	4.5%	-	0.7%	-	-	-	1%	2.5%	2.5%
Meganalisis	16–23 May 2024	1,116	9.8%	61.1%	-	1.1%	0.9%	-	1.3%	-	-	0.3%	0.7%	16.7%	8.1%
Hercon Consultores	3 May 2024	1,000	22.5%	58.8%	2%	3.1%	-	-	-	-	-	-	1.2%	2.2%	10.2%
Consultores 21	23 April – 2 May 2024	1,004	32%	50%	-	5%	13%	-	11%	-	-	4%	-	-	-
Datincorp	28 April 2024	1,200	18%	50%	1.75%	0.92%	3.42%	1.5%	2.25%	0.33%	0.25%	0.75%	N/A
Meganalisis	25–28 April 2024	1,009	11.2%	32.4%	-	0.9%	1.1%	-	-	-	-	-	2.0%	33.1%	19.3%
More Consulting	19 April 2024	-	21.6%	45.8%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Before the official confirmation of candidates

Pollster	Date(s) conducted	Margin of error	Sample size	Nicolás Maduro PSUV Great Patriotic Pole(incumbent)	María Corina Machado (disq.) Unitary Platform	Corina Yoris (ineligible) Unitary Platform	Edmundo González Unitary Platform	Benjamín Rausseo Independent	Manuel Rosales A New Era	Henrique Capriles Justice First	Juan Guaidó Popular Will	Others	Undecided	None/Not voting
22 April 2024		Luis Ratti and Juan Carlos Alvarado withdraw from the presidential race, endorse Luis Eduardo Martínez
19 April 2024		Manuel Rosales withdraws from the presidential race, endorses Edmundo González. Machado and Yoris also endorse González
Meganalisis	2–7 April 2024	3.43%	1,002	13.2%	-	-	-	1.3%	5.8%	-	-	2.9%	14.7%	62.1%
				10.4%	-	37.9%	-	1.4%	2.5%	-	-	3.4%	27.2%	17.2%
				9.4%	70.8%	-	-	1.2%	2.2%	-	-	2.2%	5.1%	9.1%
27 March 2024		The Unitary Platform registers Edmundo González Urrutia as a temporary candidate
26 March 2024		The National Electoral Council prevents Corina Yoris from registering as presidential candidate. Manuel Rosales registers
22 March 2024		María Corina Machado announces that Corina Yoris will take Machado's place as the nominee of the Unitary Platform
Meganalisis	7–13 March 2024	3.41%	1,010	7.4%	69.1%		-	0.8%	-	-	-	1.3%	12.8%	8.6%
Datincorp	25 February 2024	2.83%	1,200	13.92%	55%		-	4.83%	-	-	-	3.25%	8.58%	14.92%
26 January 2024		The Supreme Tribunal of Justice of Venezuela upholds the ban of Maria Corina Machado, disqualifying her
Meganalisis	22–31 January 2024		1,029	7.9%	71.80%		-	0.9%	-	-	-	1.0%	10.3%	8.1%
Meganalisis	24–28 November 2023	N/A	896	7.90%	72.70%		-	0.6%	-	-	-	0.1%	10.2%	8.4%
22 October 2023		Maria Corina Machado wins the 2023 Unitary Platform presidential primaries
Meganalisis	31 July 2023	N/A	1,013	12.10%	50.10%		-	0.9%	-	-	-	0.1%	23.9%	12.9%
Meganalisis	31 July 2023	N/A	1,013	11.50%	32.88%		-	-	-	4.41%	-	13.01%	24.65%	13.55%
30 June 2023		Venezuela's controller general bars María Corina Machado from running for political office for 15 years
Meganalisis	30 June 2023	N/A	1,011	6.90%	31.50%		-	-	-	5.51%	-	1.21%	25.23%
Datincorp	5 February 2023	N/A	1,192	15.69%	16.86%		-	11.91%	9.23%	6.8%	2.27%	5.7%	7.47%	24.08%

By party affiliation

Pollster	Date	Margin of error	Sample Size	Great Patriotic Pole (Chavismo)	Unitary Platform	Other	Undecided	Not voting
Datincorp	25 February 2024	N/A	1,198	14.4%	53%	-	11%	21.5%
Meganalisis	31 July 2023	-	1,013	11.5%	76.1%	-	12.4%	N/A
Consultores 21	29 March 2023	-	1,500	25.4%	55.1%	-	10.3%	9.2%
Hercon Consultores	3 February 2023	-	1,000	17.2%	20.1%	-	62.7%	N/A

Results

According to The New York Times, "Maduro was declared the winner in a presidential vote ... marred by irregularities"; these irregularities included "polling places [that] refused to release paper tallies of the electronic vote count, and ... widespread reports of fraud and voter intimidation", results that varied "wildly" from public opinion polls and voting center samples, "major irregularities and problems at those voting centers", and blocking of legal monitors from polling places.

The Carter Center, which sent a small team of observers, stated that there was a "complete lack of transparency" and that the election "did not meet international standards", "cannot be considered democratic", and had occurred in "an environment of restricted freedoms" and "clear bias" from electoral authorities; they could not verify the results from the electoral authority.

Tally sheets

Opposition groups stated their intent the day after the election to publish the detailed electoral results in the form of scanned copies of the tally sheets (actas de escrutinio) and other digital formats on a website resultadospresidencialesvenezuela2024.com where registered voters can check the results for their place of voting. According to La Patilla, Venezuelan authorities blocked access to the server on Venezuelan internet providers. La Patilla recommended the use of VPNs for accessing the website. The opposition reported that, on 31 July, more than 44 million website attacks were prevented, with more than 32 million users consulting the database in 24 hours.

On 1 August, presidents Gabriel Boric of Chile, Gustavo Petro of Colombia, Lula da Silva of Brazil, and Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico called for the CNE to publish its version of the tally sheets and the full vote counts. The following day, the Supreme Tribunal of Justice asked the CNE to provide the nationwide tally sheets and summed reports within three calendar days.

Parallel vote tabulation

In the AltaVista PVT project with a preregistered statistical sampling method of parallel vote tabulation, a team of statisticians applied their method by photographing results from 997 polling stations and inferring the national vote shares. They found 66.1% for González and 31.4% for Maduro, each with an error margin of 0.5%. The participation rate was estimated as 60.1%.

Turnout and voter changes

According to The New York Times, government officials believed that "a combination of high turnout among loyalists and suppressing the vote for the opposition" would assure a win for the incumbent party. But many voters who traditionally had supported the government had left Venezuela or had "turned from Mr. Maduro", so that "the financial muscle of an oil state to bring supporters to the polls" failed to produce the desired result. Efforts by the Maduro government to revive economic growth by privatizing the economy led to reduced public spending, including the handouts and social services traditionally used to mobilize the vote. In previous campaigns, one PSUV organizer explained, the government "gave out everything from motorbikes to refrigerators", while in this election campaign, "all she got was boxes of poor-quality food and house paint".

Results announced by the National Electoral Council (CNE)

The CNE announced initial results on 29 July. As of 30 July, the CNE had not released any tally sheets or voter data to support its results. On both 31 July and 1 August, the CNE announced that it would release the second bulletin of the results. On 2 August, the CNE announced a second bulletin of votes, still in favor of Maduro, but still without tally sheets or other polling station level details. Jennie Lincoln, who headed the Carter Center observation of the election, rejected the results again as not being transparent, and stated that Venezuela was able to provide individual table tallies as they had done so in past elections.

Journalists from The Washington Post analyzed the tally sheet scans published online by the opposition, and looked at "hundreds" of physical paper tally sheets stored by the opposition in secret locations. The journalists interviewed several of the people whose signatures appear on the physical tally sheets, and stated that the physical tally sheets appear to be authentic. They state that the physical tally sheets match the corresponding online scans. The journalists analysed 23,720 of the online tally sheets—those whose QR codes they were successfully able to extract from the images, constituting 97% of the online total, finding that González won 67% of the vote and Maduro 30%.

Sequences of zeros in the CNE values

Table showing percentages provided by the Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE) to varying levels of rounding

The CNE's 29 July counts of 5,150,092 votes for Maduro, 4,445,978 votes for González, and 462,704 other votes and a total of 10,058,774 votes, released on 29 July 2024, correspond, to a precision of 5 decimal places, to 51.20000%, 44.20000%, and 4.60000%, respectively. In the 2 August CNE results, the invalid/null vote count is 0.41000% at a precision of 5 decimal places. These sequences of successive zeros were discussed as a possible sign of fraud. Argentine journalist Matías Mowzet noticed that writing the three values as percentages rounded to five decimal places gave sequences ending in four zeros for each of the three values. The votes for Maduro, González and others correspond to the percentages 51.20000%, 44.20000% and 4.6000%, respectively.

For the vote counts to correspond to percentages that have zeros in the second to fifth decimal places is an unlikely coincidence, with a probability of around one in a hundred million, as discussed by Kiko Llaneras, a statistician writing in El País, and mathematician Terence Tao. El Espectador interpreted this as likely fraud. Infobae also stated that improbability raised suspicion about the 29 July CNE statement of the results.

Tao described a Bayesian analysis considering the null hypothesis that the 29 July CNE counts are authentic, and the alternative hypothesis that they are fraudulent. He found that the probability of the official counts occurring is "extremely small" in the case of the counts being authentic (the null hypothesis) and that there is a "plausible causal chain ... that leads to an elevated probability" of the official counts occurring for the hypothesis of manipulation (the alternative hypothesis). The causal chain of the manipulation hypothesis is that a decision was made to manipulate the data, officials followed orders to report vote counts based on a given rounded percentage, and other officials raised no objections to the fabricated counts.

On 2 August, Elvis Amoroso made a new statement, asserting that 96.87% of the ballots had been counted, accounting for 12,335,884 valid votes and 50,785 null/invalid votes, giving a total of 12,386,669 votes cast, which corresponds to 0.41000% of null/invalid votes at a precision of 5 decimal places.

96.87% reporting
Candidate		Party or alliance			Votes	%
	Nicolás Maduro	Great Patriotic Pole		PSUV	6,408,844	51.95
	Edmundo González	Unitary Platform		Independent	5,326,104	43.18
	Luis Eduardo Martínez	Democratic Action			152,360	1.24
	Antonio Ecarri	Pencil Alliance			116,421	0.94
	Benjamín Rausseo	National Democratic Confederation			92,903	0.75
	José Brito	Venezuela First			84,231	0.68
	Javier Bertucci	Hope for Change			64,452	0.52
	Claudio Fermín	Solutions for Venezuela			40,902	0.33
	Enrique Márquez	Centrados en la Gente			29,611	0.24
	Daniel Ceballos	Country Renewal and Hope Assembly			20,056	0.16
Total					12,335,884	100.00
Valid votes					12,335,884	99.59
Invalid/blank votes					50,785	0.41
Total votes					12,386,669	100.00
Registered voters/turnout					21,392,464	57.90
Source: Canal N, Efecto Cocuyo

Results announced by the Democratic Unitary Platform (PUD)

González-to-Maduro vote ratio versus registered voters per mesa; the ratios scatter around one in small voting places and from one to ten in large voting places (PUD data version 1).

A database which allowed Venezuelans to use their national identity card to verify vote tallies was released by the PUD on 30 July, which they said reflected 73% of the votes cast. The database shows scans of the vote tally sheets, with votes cast for each candidate at each voting place gathered during the electoral process. As of 30 July, the government had not released a similar accounting, which the Carter Center said was needed. Opposition groups released a CSV-format file with the polling-station level data for 24,532 polling stations. At the mesa (table) level in version 1 of the tally sheets, 86.60% of the mesas had more votes for González than for Maduro, 0.17% tied exactly, and 13.23% had more votes for Maduro.

An independent analysis of the count released by PUD was conducted by the Associated Press and corroborated the opposition results. However, AP stated it could not independently verify the authenticity of the published tally sheets.

Mebane statistical analysis of opposition vote data

A working paper published by Walter Mebane, that used statistical tools for electoral forensics, found no evidence of incremental or extreme fraud in the opposition-published results. He found no evidence of incremental or extreme fraud in the election minutes as published by the opposition. Using these minutes, he calculated that the probability of no fraud having occurred in the opposition tallies (π₁) at 99.97%. He also calculated that the probability of incremental fraud having occurred (π₂) at 0.0185% and that extreme fraud having occurred (π₃) at 0.0114%.

Mebane identified only two polling stations where fraud may have occurred; however, using a 99.5% credibility interval, it is not possible to state that this occurred in these two polls. Mebane's paper compared the results of other elections in Venezuela between 2000 and 2013. The tallies provided by the opposition in the 2024 elections have the highest probability of no fraud.

83.50% reporting
Candidate		Party or alliance			Votes	%
	Edmundo González	Unitary Platform		Independent	7,303,480	67.08
	Nicolás Maduro	Great Patriotic Pole		PSUV	3,316,142	30.46
	Luis Eduardo Martínez	Democratic Action			86,225	0.79
	Antonio Ecarri	Pencil Alliance			51,011	0.47
	Benjamín Rausseo	National Democratic Confederation			38,620	0.35
	Enrique Márquez	Centrados en la Gente			26,067	0.24
	José Brito	Venezuela First			22,097	0.20
	Javier Bertucci	Hope for Change			20,404	0.19
	Claudio Fermín	Solutions for Venezuela			12,632	0.12
	Daniel Ceballos	Country Renewal and Hope Assembly			10,584	0.10
Total					10,887,262	100.00
Valid votes					10,887,262	99.99
Invalid/blank votes					1,213	0.01
Total votes					10,888,475	100.00
Registered voters/turnout					18,122,062	61.35
Source: https://resultadosconvzla.com version 2 (full csv source; registered voters v2, Archived 7 August 2024 at the Wayback Machine)

States won by Edmundo González (24)

States won by Nicolás Maduro (0)

State	Edmundo González		Nicolás Maduro		Others		Difference		Blank/Null		Total/Participation†
	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
Amazonas	27,219	59.44	17,374	37.94	1,199	2.62	9,845	21.50	3	0.01	45,792	60.44
Anzoátegui	420,436	66.50	194,786	30.81	16,968	2.68	225,650	35.69	62	0.01	632,190	61.06
Apure	134,935	62.96	75,297	35.13	4,083	1.91	59,638	27.83	28	0.01	214,315	59.72
Aragua	487,938	67.43	212,285	29.34	23,376	3.23	275,653	38.09	99	0.01	723,599	60.06
Barinas	282,585	74.49	90,236	23.78	6,562	1.73	192,349	50.70	35	0.01	379,383	62.76
Bolívar	343,845	71.22	126,557	26.22	12,360	2.56	217,288	45.01	73	0.02	482,762	58.00
Carabobo	466,744	70.60	175,133	26.49	19,230	2.91	291,611	44.11	58	0.01	661,107	58.17
Cojedes	109,083	62.83	60,242	34.70	4,285	2.47	48,841	28.13	11	0.01	173,610	66.25
Delta Amacuro	30,074	53.44	24,797	44.07	1,402	2.49	5,277	9.38	10	0.02	56,273	55.49
Capital District	505,956	64.06	256,288	32.45	27,633	3.50	249,668	31.61	121	0.02	789,877	59.28
Falcón	301,236	70.77	114,586	26.92	9,860	2.32	186,650	43.85	55	0.01	425,682	61.07
Guárico	220,995	64.02	116,636	33.79	7,556	2.19	104,359	30.23	35	0.01	345,187	66.41
La Guaira	97,550	60.87	57,761	36.04	4,957	3.09	39,789	24.83	17	0.01	160,268	63.97
Lara	496,527	68.05	214,692	29.42	18,432	2.53	281,835	38.63	71	0.01	729,651	64.98
Mérida	303,767	76.90	84,482	21.39	6,778	1.72	219,285	55.51	36	0.01	395,027	62.91
Miranda	650,242	65.58	310,809	31.35	30,483	3.07	339,433	34.23	126	0.01	991,534	57.34
Monagas	201,689	60.36	125,364	37.52	7,095	2.12	76,325	22.84	50	0.01	334,148	60.86
Nueva Esparta	152,448	66.39	71,115	30.97	6,058	2.64	81,333	35.42	16	0.01	229,621	61.72
Portuguesa	281,482	64.05	147,673	33.60	10,293	2.34	133,809	30.45	57	0.01	439,448	68.27
Sucre	220,214	50.03	209,600	47.61	10,390	2.36	10,614	2.41	33	0.01	440,204	64.00
Táchira	398,690	81.89	79,224	16.27	8,937	1.84	319,466	65.62	45	0.01	486,851	57.54
Trujillo	222,227	63.93	119,730	34.44	5,645	1.62	102,497	29.49	32	0.01	347,602	63.43
Yaracuy	180,683	60.64	109,678	36.81	7,612	2.55	71,005	23.83	19	0.01	297,973	66.40
Zulia	766,915	69.39	321,797	29.12	16,446	1.49	445,118	40.28	121	0.01	1,105,158	51.48
Total	7,303,480	67.08	3,316,142	30.46	267,640	2.46	3,987,338	36.62	1,213	0.01	10,887,262	60.07
Source: version 2 (full csv source); †the column of participation percentages is from version 1; see also: tally sheet scans

Reactions

On 30 July, the Carter Center issued a harsh rebuke of the election authorities, stating there was a "complete lack of transparency" and that the election "cannot be considered democratic".

Fraud allegations

See also: Sequences of zeros in the CNE values

Anne Applebaum wrote in The Atlantic that it "was absolutely clear by [31 July] that ... the election had been stolen". Independent observers have described the election results as arbitrary, even by Venezuelan standards, according to The Guardian.

Political scientist Steven Levitsky called the vote "one of the most egregious electoral frauds in modern Latin American history."

Political scientist Dalson Figueiredo of the Federal University of Pernambuco, one of the authors of the AltaVista parallel vote tabulation project, stated, "After analyzing our own data, seeing the opposition's results and how they both match up, my conclusion is that we're witnessing the largest electoral fraud in the history of Latin America."

Domestic

Machado and González along with his wife, addressing the nation in front of the United Nations Development Programme office in Caracas, 2024

Supporting the PUD/González win announcement, María Corina Machado and Edmundo González rejected the results from the CNE and claimed victory. On 31 July, Maduro alleged that the US was fomenting civil war in Venezuela. González, at an event accompanied by Machado, said "The Venezuelans and the entire world know what happened ... Our struggle continues and we will not rest until the will of the Venezuelan people is respected".

The Communist Party of Venezuela objected to the CNE announcement and called for the complete election results to be published.

Supporting the CNE's announcement of his victory, Maduro described the result as "a triumph of peace and stability". Candidates Benjamín Rausseo, Daniel Ceballos, Luis Eduardo Martínez and José Brito recognized the official results. The latter three were nominated by intervened parties.

International

Main article: International reactions to the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election

The election results released by the government-controlled National Electoral Council (CNE) were followed by a mixture of scepticism and criticism from the leaders of most Latin American countries. Some Latin American countries—including Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua—recognized and congratulated Maduro as the election winner. Some world leaders expressed skepticism of the claimed results and did not recognize the CNE claims; however, The Washington Post reported that "Russia, China, Iran and Cuba were among those to congratulate Maduro".

Map showing the countries that have declared Edmundo González the winner of the presidential election

International reactions to the CNE version of the results of the election

  Venezuela

  Recognize

  Do not recognize/Asks for verification

  EU rejection without national response

  Not stated

President Gabriel Boric of Chile was the first foreign leader to question the CNE result, stating that the "results are difficult to believe". President Daniel Noboa of Ecuador warned that "that is the danger of dictatorship, and today we are witnessing how one more of them tries to take hope away from millions of Venezuelans." Condemnation from some countries, including Costa Rica, El Salvador, Peru and Uruguay described the CNE result in terms of fraud or corruption. Harsh criticism came from President Javier Milei of Argentina, who called Maduro a dictator.

The three leftist presidents of Brazil, Colombia and Mexico were quick in demanding that all votes be counted, along with full transparency of all ballot records from each precinct. Mexico and Colombia rejected the results and called for transparency and verification. The Colombian government called for the "total vote count, its verification and independent audit to be carried out as soon as possible". President Luís Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil called the controversy a "normal" process, but asked for the release of the total vote tally. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico said on 30 July that the vote tallies should be publicized, but he saw no evidence of fraud. On 1 August, the three presidents released a joint statement of concern over post-election violence, and asking for "impartial verification of results" quickly, at the disaggregated level. Officials from the three nations—whose governments are allied with Maduro according to the Associated Press (AP)—have worked with the government and the opposition, "seeking a solution to the country's political crisis". The AP writes that the opposition has reason to be wary of recommendations from this group to "follow Venezuelan laws and appear before the appropriate institutions", since the "ruling party controls every aspect of government, including the justice system, and uses it to defeat and repress real and perceived opponents".

United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken initially expressed doubts about the veracity of the results from the CNE, and on 1 August, said there was "overwhelming evidence" that González won. He called for talks and a peaceful transition, but the US has not referred to González as president-elect. The Miami Herald wrote on 7 August that Mark Wells, a State Department official, suggested in a phone call with reporters that the US was deferring to ongoing negotiations between Maduro and the Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, while spokesperson Matthew Miller said they weren't yet endorsing a president-elect.

The day after the election, nine Latin American countries (Argentina, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Guatemala, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay) called for an emergency meeting of the Organization of American States (OAS), for 31 July. The member states did not reach consensus on a resolution. OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro—referencing the ongoing investigation in the International Criminal Court (ICC) of Venezuela for crimes against humanity—said he would petition the ICC for the arrest of Maduro. Prior to the election, Maduro had stated that if he did not win, there would be a "bloodbath, a civil war"; Almagro said Maduro was fulfilling that promise and it was time for justice.

Diplomatic and commercial relations

Peru was the first country to recognize González as Venezuela's president-elect, on 30 July. Peru had recalled its ambassador from Venezuela on 29 July, and expelled the Venezuelan diplomats from Peru the next day. In response, Venezuela severed diplomatic relations with Peru.

Panama suspended diplomatic relations with Venezuela. Venezuela also expelled diplomats from Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Panama and Uruguay; as of 1 August, Brazil took over running the Caracas embassies of Argentina and Peru. Venezuela suspended flights between Venezuela and both Panama and the Dominican Republic after those countries requested a review of the election results. It also ordered the temporary suspension of flights to Peru.

Maduro ordered Argentina to abandon its embassy in Caracas within 72 hours, by 1 August, and cut power to the embassy residence, which was surrounded by security forces. The Argentine Embassy has given asylum to six of Machado's campaign workers since December 2023, when the Maduro administration sought their arrest while she was still a presidential candidate. The Argentine government said the asylum seekers must be given safe passage to leave with embassy personnel, but the Maduro administration did not agree to that condition; Brazil assumed mediation of the situation with the asylum seekers in the embassy residence after Argentine diplomats were expelled. Costa Rica has offered asylum to the six; international law affords protection of diplomatic personnel and political asylum seekers. Argentina recognized González as president-elect on 7 August.

Aftermath

Protests

Further information: 2024 Venezuelan protests

Peaceful demostrators took to the streets of Caracas one day after the CNE results.

Venezuelan citizens who considered the results to be fraudulent took to the streets to protest.

According to Infobae a "forceful statement following the electoral fraud in Venezuela and the criminalization of protests" was published on 1 August by Amnesty International in a joint statement with ten other human rights organizations that "condemned the repressive actions of the Nicolás Maduro regime in Venezuela and demanded that it guarantee the right to protest and full respect for the rights to life, personal integrity and freedom".

As of 7 August, at least 24 people had been killed during protests nationwide. According to Victims Monitor, those included a 15-year-old, all were shot, and "eight were linked to the military, three to police and seven to the pro-Maduro motorcycle gangs known as 'colectivos'." Statues of Maduro's predecessor, Hugo Chávez were also pulled down.

Alleged cyberattack on electoral system

On 29 July, CNE head Elvis Amoroso stated that during the election, CNE had been the victim of a cyberattack originating in North Macedonia, and accused the opposition of orchestrating it. Stefan Andonovski, Minister of Digital Transformation for North Macedonia, stated that "this is a socialist regime that for years has often leaked information not supported by evidence and accuses interested parties and states that have no responsibility in such cases." Jennie Lincoln from the Carter Center said there was no evidence of a cyberattack, including from "companies that monitor and know when there is a denial of service".

Crackdown

Demonstration in Caracas, August 2024

Maduro accuses the opposition of promoting a coup. In a crackdown by security forces following the elections, he mentioned using Operation Tun Tun; BBC News stated that "rights groups say it consists of the authorities going door-to-door to detain those with links to the protests or the opposition". Rafael Uzcategui of Laboratorio de Paz "suggested the operation was intended to terrify Venezuelans into submission", adding that "what we are seeing is simply an effort to sew a climate of terror", according to The Guardian.

Maduro personally encouraged individuals to report those protesting the CNE election result through an internet application, VenApp. Another internet page created by the government allows users to post media of protesters where they can be identified by other users.

At least 2,000 people had been arrested as of 7 August. Maduro ordered two prisons to be rehabilitated to contain the detained.

On 2 August, Vente Venezuela said its offices in Caracas were attacked by six armed individuals who ransacked the premises.

Charges against Machado and González

Diosdado Cabello and Jorge Rodríguez suggested two days after the election that Machado and González go to prison. Agreeing with Rodriguez and Cabello, Maduro asked authorities to apply "maximum justice" to Machado and González, accusing them of being leaders of violent groups. Costa Rica offered political asylum to opposition politicians, including González, Machado, and those hosted by the Argentine Embassy in Caracas; Machado responded that she would "continue the struggle".

On 1 August, Machado published a letter in The Wall Street Journal, stating that she had gone in to hiding "fearing for my life, my freedom, and that of my fellow countrymen from the dictatorship of Nicolás Maduro"; in the letter, she laid out the evidence she said she had from the vote tallies supporting PUD's win, and stated that Maduro had expelled witnesses from the polls, while the witnesses "protected the voter receipts with their lives throughout the night" of the elections.

Charges and arrests of other politicians and journalists

Further information: Operation Tun Tun

Freddy Superlano, a former candidate, was detained by masked men two days after the election. Shortly before, Cabello had announced that the arrest of ten opposition leaders was planned. A week later, attorney Joel García confirmed that Superlano and journalist Roland Carreño (who also worked for the Popular Will party) were held in El Helicoide on unknown charges. Representatives of Superlano's party said they were told by chavista informants that Superlano would be tortured to "make him confess to the false plan set up by regime spokesmen such as Tarek William Saab".

The same day that Superlano was detained, Ricardo Estévez, an advisor with Vente Venezuela, was taken from his residence by armed men in unmarked cars. Rafael Sivira, the youth coordinator for opposition party Radical Cause, and another unidentified person were also detained.

Vente Venezuela politician María Oropeza livestreamed as security forces broke into her residence without a search warrant and arrested her two hours after she described the ongoing detentions as a "witch hunt". The Venezuelan SNTP (Syndicate of National Press Workers) denounced that reporter Yousner Alvarado and cameraman Paúl León were arrested shortly after the election, and photographer Deysi Penna was detained on 2 August. That same day, Chilean National Television said its journalist Iván Núñez and his cameraman José Luis Tapia were arrested.

Allegations of persecution of poll watchers

Opposition leaders said that citizens who witnessed the vote tally sheets in the electoral process (poll watchers) were persecuted and detained. The CNE had their contact data; Maduro accused them of being guerillas, according to NTN 24. Many poll watchers reportedly have "fled their homes in fear".

Transparency in vote reporting and TSJ audit

Opposition leaders, world leaders and observers urged Maduro to make the vote tallies at the polling station level public, which had not happened as of 8 August.

Maduro approached the Supreme Tribunal of Justice on 1 August and, according to the BBC, "took the unusual step" of asking the court to audit and approve the results. BBC journalist Vanessa Buschschlüter called the members of the court "overwhelmingly government loyalists", while El País described it as under PSUV control. The BBC stated that this process is "likely to be conducted behind closed doors" where only the TSJ members will see the tallies. The Carter Center, anticipating this move, stated that "the TSJ is another government institution, appointed by the government ...  not an independent assessment". This move was seen as a means to delay the process while giving the appearance of compliance. A former member of opposition figure Juan Guaidó's cabinet told O Globo that this was done in an attempt to stall the opposition and give the results a veneer of legitimacy.

On 7 August, Edmundo González said he would not respond to a court summons issued by the TSJ as part of its audit procedures, citing procedural irregularities and concerns for his safety and saying the summons violated due process.

Brazil, Colombia and Mexico released a joint statement on 8 August that distanced themselves from the TSJ audit, according to El País, writing that "CNE has the legal mandate to transparently publish electoral results", while calling again for the release of the vote tallies.

Ongoing censorship

See also: 2024 Venezuelan presidential election § Censorship

A few hours after publication of Machado's 1 August letter in The Wall Street Journal, according to VE Sin Filtro, that newspaper was blocked by some providers in Venezuela.

On 8 August, Maduro ordered that X (formerly Twitter) be blocked for ten days in Venezuela; at 3 pm Venezuelan time, VE Sin Filtro announced the block was effective.

Negotiated peaceful transition proposals

See also: Puntofijo Pact

Negotiated peaceful transition of power proposals include an exit deal or power-sharing.

Exit deal proposals

On 19 July 2024, Elliott Abrams, diplomat and former special representative of the Trump administration for Venezuela, suggested that the United States should offer amnesty to Maduro.

González had expressed willingness to negotiate a transfer of power with Maduro, which included not persecuting his party and giving it a place in the National Assembly.

Nora Gámez Torres wrote on 8 August in the Miami Herald that Machado said the opposition was willing to negotiate for Maduro to recognize González's win. Machado presented four negotiating points:

1. Recognize the 28 July results, in
2. an "orderly and stable democratic transition" with
3. "guarantees, safeguards, and incentives" for a rapid outcome that
4. "has to be a negotiation in which the people of Venezuela, the leaders that the people of Venezuela trust and the sectors of civil society are represented".

Gámez Torres wrote that "there is no evidence that the Maduro regime is willing to negotiate with the opposition", adding that he "has threatened to jail" them. Former Colombian vice-president Francisco Santos Calderón opined that, with respect to the TSJ audit, "Maduro would use the legal maneuver to validate fake results presented by the electoral council, discredit the data presented by the opposition and eventually arrest Gonzalez and Machado".

Machado welcomed the efforts by Brazil and Colombia, but said the electoral victory was non-negotiable and the opposition would not agree to power-sharing.

Other proposals

Venezuelan economist and former advisor to the National Assembly Francisco Rodríguez argued in favor of a peaceful transition of power to be initiated via a power-sharing agreement similar to that of the 1989 Polish Round Table Agreement and Contract Sejm in Poland. Using the March 2020 US proposal "Democratic Transition Framework for Venezuela" as a starting point, he suggested that Maduro would symbolically retain the presidency, Maduro's supporters would retain the security and police ministries, and the opposition would have a prime minister and the rest of the cabinet.

Panama's president stated on 9 August that at least seven regional leaders said they would attend a regional summit he proposed, which could be held a week later in the Dominican Republic.

See also

• 1989 Panamanian general election
• 1988 Mexican general election
• 1986 Philippine presidential election

Further reading

• Chavez, Rebecca Bill; Broner, Tamara Taraciuk (6 August 2024). "For a peaceful transition in Venezuela, the Americas should unite". The Hill. Retrieved 6 August 2024.
• Nicas, Jack (4 August 2024). "How Could Maduro's Reign in Venezuela End?". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 4 August 2024. Retrieved 4 August 2024.
• O'Boyle, Brendan (10 August 2024). "Panama offers safe passage to Venezuela's Maduro to allow for transition". MSN (stories by Reuters). Retrieved 10 August 2024.
• Ormerod, Alex González (6 August 2024). "Where Venezuela Goes From Here". TIME. Retrieved 6 August 2024.
• Raisbeck, Daniel (30 July 2024). "Twelve Graphs on Why Maduro Could Only "Win" by Stealing Venezuela's Election". Cato Institute. Retrieved 31 July 2024.
• Viswanathan, R. (6 July 2024). "United States is the obstacle for free and fair elections in Venezuela". The Week. Retrieved 6 July 2024.

External links

• Venezuela election live updates
• Detailed election results provided by the opposition (Venezuelan identity needed for access)
• "Debate Primarias 2023 #HablanlosCandidatos – VPItv En Vivo". YouTube. 12 July 2023.