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Opinion polling for the 2016 Serbian parliamentary election

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In the run up to the 2016 parliamentary elections in the Serbia, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Serbia. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

The date range for these opinion polls range from the previous parliamentary election, held on 16 March 2014, to the 2016 election, held on 24 April 2016. Most opinion polls predicted that the SNS was going to fare around 50%, while their partners in the ruling coalition SPS were stable at above 10%. Serbian Radical Party, strengthened by the return of their leader Vojislav Šešelj from the Hague Tribunal, seemed the only party certain to make it to the Parliament with the support of 6–8% polled, while all other major lists undulated around the 5% threshold.

Party vote

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Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.

Date Polling Firm SNS et al. SPS
JS
DS SRS Dveri DSS SDS LDP DJB Others Lead
24 Apr 2016 2016 Election result 48.4 10.9 6.0 8.1 5.0 5.0 (+LSV) 6.0 10.6 37.5
21 Apr CeSid 54.0 11.0 5.0 7.0 5.0 6.0 (+LSV) 6.0 6 43.0
20 Apr Faktor Plus 50.9 12.3 5.5 7.9 5.2 5.1 (+LSV) 4.6 8.5 38.6
6–13 Apr Ninamedia 47.2 13.3 5.1 9.3 6.3 5.6 (+LSV) 4.9 8.3 33.9
7–14 Apr NSPM 44.8 12.7 7.5 9.8 6.3 6.9 (+LSV) 4.2 7.8 32.1
19 Apr ProPozitiv 50.6 11.4 4.9 8.2 5.6 6.9 (+LSV) 5.3 7.1 39.2
mid–Apr FPN [a] 27.2 11.6 5.6 17.5 8.1 12.0 (+LSV) 8.8 9.2 9.7
3–10 Apr Faktor Plus 50.9 12.3 5.7 7.8 5.1 5.0 (+LSV) 4.5 8.7 38.3
31 Mar ProPozitiv 52.4 12.3 4.6 6.5 7.4 7.3 (+LSV) 5.7 3.8 40.1
28–31 Mar CeSID 53.0 13.0 5.0 7.0 8.0 6.0 (+LSV) 5.0 3 40
27 Mar Faktor Plus 52.6 11.9 6.1 6.1 5.5 5.0 (+LSV) 3.3 9.5 40.7
3 Mar Faktor Plus 49.4 12.7 6.4 6.0 5.7 5.0 (+LSV) 3 11.8 36.7
28 Jan–7 Feb NSPM 44.9 11.8 10.8 7.0 6.8 8.5 (+LSV) 3.4 6.8 33.1
3 Feb Faktor Plus 49.5 12.0 6.8 6.0 5.6 5.2 (+LSV) 2.3 12.6 37.5
2016
20–27 Dec Ninamedia Research 47.7 11.1 6.0 5.9 4.0 2.4 4.8 18.1 36.6
15–25 Dec Faktor Plus 51.4 9.5 6.5 6.0 5.2 4.1 2.2 15.1 41.9
c. 24 Dec Ipsos Strategic Marketing 52.0 11.0 5.9 6.2 5.0 6.9 13 41.0
mid–Dec Ipsos Strategic Marketing 52[b] 10[b] 5[b] 3[b] 5[b] 2[b] 4[b] 2[b] 2[b] 15[b] 42
25 Nov–3 Dec NSPM 42.1 10.7 11.1 5.3 4.9 3.5 3.0 2.8 2.8 13.8 31.0
24–30 Nov Faktor Plus 51.6 8.7 6.5 6.2 3.1 2.8 2.9 1.3 2.0 14.9 42.9
24–27 Nov Ipsos Strategic Marketing 52 10 5 5 4 3 7 14 42
26–30 Oct Faktor Plus 51.5 8.7 6.0 6.6 3.3 2.9 2.8 1.2 2.0 15 42.8
10–18 Oct NSPM 45.8 10.4 9.4 5.8 4.5 3.9 3.2 2.5 1.6 12.9 35.4
c. 12 Oct Ipsos Strategic Marketing 50 10 5–6 5–6 28–30 40
1–7 Oct Ninamedia Research 48.1 14.3 (+PUPS) 5.8 6.2 3.2[c] 3.0[c] 3.3 2.6 2.2 11.3 33.8
25 Sep–4 Oct Ipsos Strategic Marketing 54[d] 9[d] 5[d] 6[d] 3[d] 4[d] 2[d] 3[d] 2[d] 12[d] 45
25–30 Sep Faktor Plus 51.5 8.8 7.0 6.0 3.1 3.0 3.0 1.2 1.5 14.9 42.7
5–14 Sep NSPM 39.1 11.6 11.1 5.9 4.6 4.3 2.8 3.3 2.3 15 27.5
late Aug–early Sep Ipsos Strategic Marketing [e] 48 10 6 4 3 3 4 5 3 14 38
26–30 Aug Faktor Plus 51.0 9.0[f] 7.0 5.8 2.9 2.8 3.1 1.2 1.0 16.2 42.0
24–30 Jul Faktor Plus 50.7 9.2[g] 7.1 5.8 2.8[g] 2.5[g] 3.0 1.2 1.0 16.7 41.5
18–26 Jun NSPM 45.0 10.7 10.9 3.5 4.5 4.0 3.4 0.8 17.2 34.1
18–25 Jun Faktor Plus 50.5 9.3 7.0 6.4 2.9 2.2 3.2 1.2 1.0 16.3 41.2
21–27 May Faktor Plus 50.6 9.5 7.0 6.1 3.0 2.0 3.1 1.3 1.2 16.2 41.1
late May Ipsos Strategic Marketing 50.0 12.0 (+PUPS) 6.1 6.8 6.6 4.9[1] 2.5 1.4 9.7 38.0
25–29 Apr Faktor Plus [h] 52.1 9.5 8.3 6.4 4.1 19.6 42.6
17–24 Apr Faktor Plus 50.8 10.1 7.2 6.0 3.5 1.9 3.3 1.3 1.4 14.5 40.7
10–22 Apr NSPM 42.4 10.7 12.5 6.1 4.2 4.8 2.4 2.4 0.8 13.7 29.9
30 Mar–3 Apr Faktor Plus 50.6 10.8 7.1 4.8 3.7 2.0 3.4 1.5 1.6 14.5 39.8
early Mar Faktor Plus 50.1 10.2 7.1 4.6 3.9 1.8 3.2 1.7 1.6 15.8 39.9
24–30 Jan TNS Medium Gallup [i] 48.7 6.4[i] 3.2 3.4 2.2 0.8 3.6 1.6 30.1 42.3
27 Dec–5 Jan NSPM 47.9 12.0 10.8 3.3 3.4 4.4 3.9 2.7 0.7 10.9 35.9
2015
16–19 Dec Faktor Plus 51.1 10.8 6.6 4.6 3.9 1.1 4.5 1.0 16.4 40.3
late Nov Faktor Plus 51.0 10.5 6.5 4.6 3.8 4.5 19.1 40.5
late Nov Ipsos Strategic Marketing 50 10 6 3 5 3 3 3 3 14 40
10–15 Oct NSPM 46.7 13.3 6.5 3.7 3.1 3.4 5.9 3.7 13.7 33.4
8–10 Oct Faktor Plus 50.5 10.8 6.1 3.0 2.6 4.8 22.2 39.7
24 Sep–1 Oct Ninamedia Research 49.6 10.9 5.9 3.4 5.1 4.1 4.5 3.1 2.2 11.2 38.7
1–6 Sep Faktor Plus 50.5 11.0 5.9 3.1 2.0 4.8 22.7 39.5
9–13 Aug Faktor Plus 50.6 11.0 5.2 3.9 4.8 24.5 39.6
26 Jun–2 Jul Faktor Plus 50.5 10.5 6.1 4.3 5.6 23 40.0
27–29 May Faktor Plus 50.1 12.8 6.2 5.8 25.1 37.3
22–29 May Danas 55 13 (+PUPS) 5 3 4 4 5 5 2 4 42
mid–Apr Faktor Plus 51.1 12.5 6.3 3.9 5.9 20.3 38.6
16 Mar 2014 2014 Election result 48.4 13.5 (+PUPS) 6.0 2.0 3.6 4.2 5.7 3.4 2.1 11.1 34.9

Notes

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  1. ^
    Based on 890 respondents aged 18 years (first-time voters).
  2. ^
    If the parties were to run in coalition: (mid–Dec 2015)
  3. ^
    DveriDSS coalition 7.8.[2] (1–7 Oct 2015)
  4. ^
    If the parties were to run in coalition: (24 Sep–4 Oct 2015)
  5. ^
    Ipsos Strategic Marketing poll for International Republican Institute (IRI).[3]
  6. ^
    Between 13–15 if in coalition with JS and PUPS.[4] (26–30 Aug 2015)
  7. ^
    If in coalition:[5] (24–30 Jul 2015)
  8. ^
    Based on 800 respondents aged 18–25 years.
  9. ^
    Percentages would be higher if undecided voters were excluded.
    • SPSJSPUPS coalition 8.5. (24–30 Jan 2015)

References

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  1. ^ "DESNICA JAČA IZ DANA U DAN Radikali, Dveri i DSS prešišali DS". Informer. 26 May 2015.
  2. ^ "Za SNS 48,1 za DVERI - 7,8 odsto". Svedok. 3 November 2015.
  3. ^ "I LDP prelazi cenzus?". Danas. 6 September 2015.
  4. ^ "Faktor plus: Građani podržavaju Vučića i pomoć izbeglicama". N1. 31 August 2015.
  5. ^ "Faktor plus: SNS iznad 50 odsto". Novosti. 1 August 2015.