Opinion polling for the 2019 Estonian parliamentary election

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In the run up to the 2019 Estonian parliamentary election, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Estonia. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 22 September 2015, to the 26–28 February 2019.

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each poll is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's color. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded.

Graphical Summary[edit]

30 day moving average trend line of Estonian polls towards the election in 2019, each line corresponds to a political party.
30 day moving average trend line of Estonian polls towards the election in 2019, each line corresponds to a political party.

Polling Results[edit]

2019[edit]

Date Polling firm Ref Kesk SDE I EVA EKRE Green E200 Others Lead Ratas' cabinet – Opposition
3 Mar 2019 Election Results 28.9 23.1 9.8 11.4 1.2 17.8 1.8 4.4 1.6 5.8 44.3 – 55.7
26–28 Feb 2019 Kantar Emor 26.6 24.5 11.9 10.1 1.3 17.3 2.2 4.3 1.8 2.1 46.5 – 45.2
28 Jan–24 Feb 2019 Norstat 29.5 25.7 10.2 9.2 1 16.4 2.9 3.3 1.8 3.8 45.1 – 46.9
7–20 Feb 2019 Turu-uuringute AS 24 28 11 10 2 17 3 4 1 4 49 – 43
14–20 Feb 2019 Kantar Emor 25.7 24.7 10.1 9.2 0.9 21.3 2 5.6 0.5 1 44 – 47.9
12–18 Feb 2019 Faktum Ariko 25 22 11 11 2 18 2 4 4 3 44 – 45
21 Jan–17 Feb 2019 Norstat 28.8 27.1 9 9.2 0.9 16.4 3 3.4 2.2 1.7 45.3 – 46.1
14 Jan–11 Feb 2019 Norstat 27.9 28.8 8.9 7.7 1 17 2.8 3.8 2.1 0.9 45.4 – 45.9
4–7 Feb 2019 Kantar Emor 24.5 26.5 11.5 8.6 0.7 18.9 2.2 6.4 0.7 2 46.6 – 44.1
7 Jan–4 Feb 2019 Norstat 27 28.7 9.1 7.4 0.7 17.7 2.7 3.7 3 1.7 45.2 – 45.4
24–29 Jan 2019 Kantar Emor 26.3 24.4 9.7 7.5 1.7 18.2 4.4 7.2 0.6 1.9 41.6 – 46.2
15–28 Jan 2019 Turu-uuringute AS 25 33 7 6 1 17 3 5 3 8 46 – 43
7–13 Jan 2019 Norstat 27 27 10 7 – 20 2 2 5 0 44 – 47
4–8 Jan 2019 Kantar Emor 24.4 23.3 11.8 8 1.4 20.2 3 6.6 1.3 1.1 43.1 – 46
3–9 Jan 2019 Turu-uuringute AS (Online poll) 20 26 12 9 1 20 1 7 4 6 47 – 41

2018[edit]

Date Polling firm Ref Kesk SDE I EVA EKRE Green E200 Others Lead Ratas' cabinet – Opposition
13–19 Dec 2018 Turu-uuringute AS (Online poll) 22 25 12 8 1 21 3 6 2 3 45 – 44
December 2018 Kantar Emor 23 25.9 9.2 7.8 2 20.3 3.5 8.2 – 2.9 42.9 – 45.3
December 2018 Turu-uuringute AS 21 31 8 5 1 18 3 7 6 10 44 – 43
November 2018 Turu-uuringute AS 23 33 7 5 1 15 3 8 5 10 45 – 39
November 2018 Kantar Emor 29 25 11 5 2 17 3 8 – 4 41 – 48
October 2018 Kantar Emor 28 25 14 5 2 16 4 5 1 3 44 – 46
October 2018 Turu-uuringute AS 28 30 12 5 2 17 2 – 4 2 47 – 47
September 2018 Kantar Emor 27 25 13 5 3 20 3 – 4.7 2 43 – 50
September 2018 Turu-uuringute AS 27 28 14 3 2 17 3 – 6 1 45 – 46
August 2018 Turu-uuringute AS 25 27 11 5 2 19 4 – 7 2 43 – 46
August 2018 Kantar Emor 29.8 23.8 12.7 5.2 4.7 21.2 2 – 0.6 6 41.7 – 55.7
July 2018 Kantar Emor 30 24 13 5 3 22 3 – 0.7 6 42 – 55
June 2018 Kantar Emor 32 23 14 7 3 17 5 – – 9 44 – 52
June 2018 Turu-uuringute AS 28 27 9 5 4 18 2 – 7 1 41 – 50
May 2018 Kantar Emor 32 21 11.9 5 4 16.7 3 – 6.4 11 37.9 – 52.7
May 2018 Turu-uuringute AS 30 26 9 5 3 15 4 – 8 4 40 – 48
April 2018 Kantar Emor 30 21.6 10.6 5.8 5.8 19.1 6.1 – 1 8.4 38 – 54.9
April 2018 Turu-uuringute AS 33 26 6 4 3 14 3 – 9 7 36 – 50
8–21 Mar 2018 Turu-uuringute AS 31 26 10 5 3 13 3 – 9 5 41 – 47
8–14 Mar 2018 Kantar Emor 34.1 23.8 10.6 4.1 5.0 18.3 3.6 – 0.5 10.3 38.5 – 57.4
7–20 Feb 2018 Turu-uuringute AS 27 27 8 6 4 14 3 – 11 0 41 – 45
Feb 2018 Kantar Emor 34 21 11 6 7 17 4 – 0 13 38 – 58
15–29 Jan 2018 Turu-uuringute AS 26 27 11 5 4 12 4 – 11 1 43 – 42
18–25 Jan 2018 Kantar Emor 34.2 20.5 11 4.5 5.4 18.4 4.5 – 1.5 13.7 36 – 58

2017[edit]

Date Polling firm Ref Kesk SDE I EVA EKRE Green Others Lead Ratas' cabinet – Opposition
8–14 Dec 2017 Kantar Emor 28 22 15 8 6 17 4 0 6 45 – 51
22 Nov–5 Dec 2017 Turu-uuringute AS 24 29 11 8 3 12 3 10 5 48 – 39
1–14 Nov 2017 Turu-uuringute AS 22 27 10 8 4 13 3 13 5 45 – 39
1–9 Nov 2017 Kantar Emor 29.0 26.0 15.1 7.0 5.1 14.4 3.1 0.3 3 48.1 – 48.5
Oct 2017 Kantar Emor 27 27 16 7 4 15 3 1 0 50 – 46
26 Sep–10 Oct 2017 Turu-uuringute AS 25 29 10 7 3 13 4 9 4 46 – 41
5–18 Sep 2017 Turu-uuringute AS 25 27 12 8 4 14 2 8 2 47 – 43
8–14 Sep 2017 Kantar Emor 25.7 23.1 18.7 5.8 6.2 16.7 2.0 1.8 2.6 47.6 – 48,6
9–22 Aug 2017 Turu-uuringute AS 24 29 12 5 6 12 4 8 5 46 – 42
11–17 Aug 2017 TNS Emor 27.6 22.8 14.6 3.8 9.4 17.2 3.7 0.9 4.8 41.2 – 54.2
Jul 2017 TNS Emor 26.4 23.1 14.8 6.3 7.4 15.9 5.4 0.7 3.3 44.2 – 49.7
9–16 June 2017 TNS Emor 25.4 25.1 14.2 6.6 8.5 16.2 3 1 0.3 45.9 – 50.1
25 May–6 Jun 2017 Turu-uuringute AS 26 26 11 6 8 10 3 10 0 43 – 44
17–22 May 2017 Turu-uuringute AS 23.7 24.7 12.9 6.9 4.6 12.8 5.7 8.7 1 44.5 – 41.1
12–18 May 2017 TNS Emor 27.5 21.8 17.8 5.6 9.9 13.4 3.7 0.3 5.7 45.2 – 50.8
25 Apr–9 May 2017 Turu-uuringute AS 25 26 12 4 8 14 3 8 1 42 – 47
Apr 2017 TNS Emor 25 25 15 5 11 14 5 1 0 45 – 50
28 Mar–10 Apr 2017 Turu-uuringute AS 20 30 11 8 7 13 2 9 10 49 – 40
1–14 Mar 2017 Turu-uuringute AS 25 29 11 7 7 8 3 10 4 47 – 40
Mar 2017 TNS Emor 26 27 15 6 10 14 2 0 1 48 – 50
Feb 2017 Turu-uuringute AS 23 29 10 7 8 10 2 11 6 46 – 41
Feb 2017 TNS Emor 25 27 16 7 10 13 2 0 2 50 – 48
19–31 Jan 2017 Turu-uuringute AS 25 31 10 6 7 9 1 11 6 47 – 41

2016[edit]

Date Polling firm Ref Kesk SDE I EVA EKRE Green Others Lead Ratas' cabinet – Opposition
Dec 2016 TNS Emor 23 26 19 7 8 11 4 2 3 52 – 42
Dec 2016 Turu-uuringute AS 20 32 15 8 6 8 1 10 12 55 – 34
23 Nov 2016 Jüri Ratas' cabinet is sworn in[1]
Nov 2016 TNS Emor 23 24 19 9 11 10 3 1 1 —
Nov 2016 Turu-uuringute AS 21 29 13 9 9 12 – 7 8 —
Date Polling firm Ref Kesk SDE I EVA EKRE Green Others Lead Rõivas' cabinet – Opposition
9 Nov 2016 Taavi Rõivas loses the vote of no confidence in Riigikogu[2]
Oct 2016 TNS Emor 22 25 17 8 15 10 3 0 3 47 – 50
Oct 2016 Turu-uuringute AS 25 26 12 7 9 10 – 11 1 44 – 45
Sep 2016 TNS Emor 22 20 19 9 12 13 4 1 2 50 – 45
Sep 2016 Turu-uuringute AS 25 26 12 7 9 10 – 11 1 44 – 45
Aug 2016 TNS Emor 28 23 15 8 9 13 3 1 5 51 – 45
Aug 2016 Turu-uuringute AS 23 24 15 5 10 13 – 10 1 43 – 47
Jun 2016 TNS Emor 27 21 17 6 11 14 3 1 6 50 – 46
Jun 2016 Turu-uuringute AS 20 28 10 7 12 13 2 8 8 37 – 53
May 2016 Turu-uuringute AS 21 23 12 4 11 14 – 15 2 37 – 48
Apr 2016 TNS Emor 23 22 16 7 15 13 2 2 1 46 – 50
Apr 2016 Turu-uuringute AS 21 25 13 7 12 14 – 8 4 41 – 51
Mar 2016 Turu-uuringute AS 23 25 13 6 12 13 – 8 2 42 – 50
Mar 2016 TNS Emor 23 25 14 6 15 14 2 1 2 43 – 54
Feb 2016 Turu-uuringute AS 23 29 12 6 12 11 – 7 6 41 – 52
Feb 2016 TNS Emor 22 22 16 6 16 13 3 2 0 44 – 51
Jan 2016 Turu-uuringute AS 17 26 13 7 13 12 – 12 9 37 – 51

2015[edit]

Date Polling firm Ref Kesk SDE I EVA EKRE Green Others Lead Rõivas' cabinet – Opposition
Dec 2015 Turu-uuringute AS 20 25 14 7 13 10 – 11 5 41 – 48
Dec 2015 TNS Emor 21 25 16 8 15 11 3 1 3 45 – 51
Nov 2015 Turu-uuringute AS 17 33 13 8 11 9 – 9 16 38 – 53
Nov 2015 TNS Emor 20 23 16 7 16 12 3 1 3 43 – 51
Oct 2015 Turu-uuringute AS 19 27 14 8 14 10 – 8 8 41 – 51
Sep 2015 TNS Emor 24 24 18 7 17 7 3 1 0 49 – 48
Sep 2015 Turu-uuringute AS 21 29 15 9 11 6 – 9 8 45 – 46
Aug 2015 TNS Emor 20 25 16 9 17 9 3 2 5 45 – 51
Jun 2015 Turu-uuringute AS 16 28 18 9 15 6 – 8 10 43 – 49
Jun 2015 TNS Emor 18 26 16 8 19 9 3 1 7 42 – 54
May 2015 Turu-uuringute AS 18 31 13 9 14 7 – 8 13 40 – 52
May 2015 TNS Emor 19 26 17 8 18 8 3 1 7 44 – 52
Apr 2015 Turu-uuringute AS 22 26 17 10 12 7 – 6 4 49 – 45
Mar 2015 TNS Emor 28 24 16 10 12 9 1 0 4 54 – 45
1 Mar 2015 Election results 27.7 24.8 15.2 13.7 8.7 8.1 0.9 0.9 2.9 56.6 – 41.6

References[edit]

  1. ^ ERR (2016-11-23). "President appoints Jüri Ratas' government". ERR. Retrieved 2019-03-05.
  2. ^ ERR (2016-11-07). "Government falls as Social Democrats and IRL leave coalition". ERR. Retrieved 2019-03-05.
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