Opinion polling for the 2023 Dutch provincial elections

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In the run-up to the 2023 Dutch provincial elections, various organisations are carrying out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions in the Netherlands. In addition to national pollsters such as I&O Research and Ipsos, some local and smaller polling organizations have polled for voting intentions in specific provinces or even cities. The first opinion polls for these elections were conducted in January 2023, with final polls often being released close to the election. The elections were held on 15 March 2023.[1]

National[edit]

Vote Share[edit]

Polling firm Release
date 		Sample
size 		FvD VVD CDA GL PvdA D66 PVV SP CU PvdD 50+ SGP DENK Volt JA21 BBB BVNL Others Lead
Ipsos 10–14 Mar 2023 2,002 2.4% 14.2% 6.1% 9.4% 7.1% 5.8% 10.2% 6.9% 2.6% 5.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.1% 2.2% 4.1% 16.4% – 2.7% 2.2%
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 2023 8,196 3% 11% 5% 10% 8% 7% 9% 5% 4% 6% 1% 3% 1% 4% 6% 14% 1% 3% 3%
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 2023 5,291 3.2% 18.6% 7.1% 9.5% 6.4% 7.5% 11.2% 6.7% 2.9% 5.1% 1.2% 2.3% 0.9% 1.7% 4.0% 10.7% 0.1% 0.9% 7.4%
Ipsos 10–13 Feb 2023 1,961 3.2% 17.7% 6.5% 8.2% 6.4% 8.7% 11.5% 5.9% 3.1% 5.3% 0.9% 2.5% 1.2% 2.1% 4.1% 9.5% 0.6% 2.6% 6.2%
I&O Research 10–13 Feb 2023 2,489 3.3% 13.3% 4.8% 10.1% 8.1% 6.3% 10.7% 5.2% 3.6% 6.7% 1.0% 2.5% 1.2% 1.9% 6.0% 11.5% 0.4% 3.4% 1.8%
I&O Research 13–16 Jan 2023 2,489 2.5% 14.3% 5.3% 9.0% 6.5% 7.5% 11.0% 6.0% 3.4% 5.4% 0.6% 3.5% 1.4% 2.7% 7.0% 9.4% 0.7% 3.6% 3.3%
2019 election 20 Mar 2019 – 14.5% 14.0% 11.1% 10.8% 8.5% 7.8% 6.9% 5.9% 4.9% 4.4% 3.6% 2.5% 1.7% did not contest 7.0% 0.5%

Drenthe[edit]

See also: Provincial Council of Drenthe

Seats[edit]

Due to an increase of population to more than 500.000 in September 2022, the amount of seats in the Provincial Council of Drenthe is set to be expanded from 41 to 43.[2]

Polling firm Release
date 		Sample
size 		PvdA FvD VVD CDA GL PVV CU SP D66 SLD [a] 50+ PvdD SGP Volt JA21 BBB BVNL Others Lead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 2023 688 5 1 4 1 2 5 2 2 2 1 0 1 0 1 1 15 0 0 10
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 2023 309 4 2 5 2 2 7 2 4 2 1 0 2 0 0 1 9 0 0 2
2019 election 20 Mar 2019 – 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 did not contest 0 Tie

Vote Share[edit]

Polling firm Release
date 		Sample
size 		PvdA FvD VVD CDA GL PVV CU SP D66 SLD [a] 50+ PvdD SGP Volt JA21 BBB BVNL Others Lead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 2023 688 10.4% 2.4% 8.3% 3.7% 5.6% 10.7% 4.5% 5.6% 4.3% 3.2% 1.4% 3.4% 0.4% 2.9% 2.4% 30.2% 0.7% 0.0% 19.5%
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 2023 309 9.2% 4.4% 11.1% 5.6% 5.3% 13.4% 4.8% 7.5% 5.6% 2.0% 1.7% 4.5% 0.9% 1.6% 2.2% 18.7% 1.4% 0.1% 5.3%
2019 election 20 Mar 2019 – 14.1% 13.5% 13.0% 10.5% 8.3% 7.1% 6.8% 6.5% 5.7% 4.1% 3.7% 3.4% 0.8% did not contest 2.6% 0.6%

Flevoland[edit]

See also: Provincial Council of Flevoland

Seats[edit]

Polling firm Release
date 		Sample
size 		FvD VVD PVV GL CDA PvdA CU SP 50+ D66 PvdD SGP JA21 BBB BVNL KF [b] Others Lead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 2023 566 2 6 4 5 2 3 2 2 0 2 2 1 3 7 0 0 0 1
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 2023 308 2 7 6 5 2 2 2 3 0 3 3 1 1 3 0 1 0 1
2019 election 20 Mar 2019 – 8 6 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 did not contest 1[c] 2

Vote Share[edit]

Polling firm Release
date 		Sample
size 		FvD VVD PVV GL CDA PvdA CU SP 50+ D66 PvdD SGP JA21 BBB BVNL KF [b] Others Lead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 2023 566 4.8% 13.5% 8.5% 10.8% 4.5% 6.7% 5.2% 5.3% 1.4% 5.7% 5.1% 3.3% 6.8% 14.1% 2.0% 1.7% 0.5% 0.6%
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 2023 308 5.2% 15.8% 12.9% 10.0% 4.4% 5.3% 4.4% 6.5% 1.4% 6.7% 7.7% 3.7% 2.4% 6.6% – 2.3% 4.7% 2.9%
2019 election 20 Mar 2019 – 17.8% 13.2% 9.3% 8.5% 8.3% 8.2% 7.0% 5.8% 4.9% 4.9% 4.4% 3.8% did not contest 3.8% 5.6%

Friesland[edit]

See also: Provincial Council of Friesland

Seats[edit]

Polling firm Release
date 		Sample
size 		CDA FvD PvdA VVD FNP GL CU PVV SP D66 PvdD 50+ PBF [d] JA21 BBB BVNL Others Lead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 2023 636 3 2 6 4 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 0 1 2 10 0 0 4
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 2023 459 5 2 5 4 2 3 2 5 2 2 2 0 1 1 7 0 0 2
2019 election 20 Mar 2019 – 8 6 6 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 did not contest 0 2

Vote Share[edit]

Polling firm Release
date 		Sample
size 		CDA FvD PvdA VVD FNP GL CU PVV SP D66 PvdD 50+ PBF [d] JA21 BBB BVNL Others Lead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 2023 636 7.5% 5.4% 11.7% 9.2% 5.1% 5.5% 4.3% 6.8% 5.5% 4.7% 5.4% 0.2% 2.7% 4.4% 20.2% 0.8% 0.6% 8.5%
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 2023 459 10.2% 5.3% 10.1% 9.2% 4.9% 6.0% 4.8% 11.0% 5.5% 4.6% 3.9% 0.3% 3.6% 3.7% 14.6% 1.4% 0.9% 4.4%
2019 election 20 Mar 2019 – 16.7% 13.4% 13.4% 9.4% 7.9% 7.7% 6.6% 5.8% 5.2% 4.1% 3.2% 2.5% 1.8% did not contest 2.3% 3.3%

Gelderland[edit]

See also: Provincial Council of Gelderland

Seats[edit]

Polling firm Release
date 		Sample
size 		VVD FvD CDA GL PvdA D66 CU PVV SP SGP PvdD 50+ LPG [e] Volt JA21 BBB BVNL Others Lead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 2023 649 6 0 2 6 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 1 1 1 4 12 0 0 6
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 2023 507 9 1 3 6 4 3 3 4 3 2 2 0 2 1 3 9 0 0 Tie
2019 election 20 Mar 2019 – 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 0 did not contest 0 Tie

Vote Share[edit]

Polling firm Release
date 		Sample
size 		VVD FvD CDA GL PvdA D66 CU PVV SP SGP PvdD 50+ LPG [e] Volt JA21 BBB BVNL Others Lead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 2023 649 9.5% 1.5% 3.7% 10.4% 5.3% 5.9% 5.9% 7.1% 5.5% 6.0% 5.6% 1.6% 1.8% 3.1% 6.7% 19.9% 0.4% 0.0% 9.5%
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 2023 507 15.5% 2.7% 5.4% 9.4% 6.6% 4.8% 6.1% 7.7% 5.2% 3.3% 4.1% 1.2% 3.9% 2.7% 4.7% 15.4% – 1.2% 0.1%
2019 election 20 Mar 2019 – 14.0% 13.4% 11.6% 10.8% 8.3% 7.2% 6.8% 6.1% 5.8% 5.3% 4.5% 3.8% 1.2% did not contest 1.3% 0.6%

Groningen[edit]

See also: Provincial Council of Groningen

Seats[edit]

Polling firm Release
date 		Sample
size 		GL PvdA FvD CU SP VVD CDA GB [f] D66 PVV PvhN PvdD 50+ SGP Volt JA21 BBB BVNL Others Lead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 2023 558 5 5 1 2 4 3 2 1 2 2 1 2 0 1 2 0 10 0 0 5
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 2023 404 4 5 1 2 5 4 2 1 3 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 3
2019 election 20 Mar 2019 – 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 did not contest 0 1

Vote Share[edit]

Polling firm Release
date 		Sample
size 		GL PvdA FvD CU SP VVD CDA GB [f] D66 PVV PvhN PvdD 50+ SGP Volt JA21 BBB BVNL Others Lead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 2023 558 10.9% 9.9% 3.8% 5.7% 8.1% 7.7% 4.4% 3.3% 4.1% 5.0% 3.3% 5.4% 0.5% 2.1% 4.0% 1.2% 19.4% 1.0% 0.0% 8.5%
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 2023 404 7.7% 10.5% 3.5% 4.0% 9.9% 9.1% 5.8% 3.2% 6.5% 8.7% 5.1% 4.8% – – 1.8% 1.2% 16.9% – 1.2% 6.4%
2019 election 20 Mar 2019 – 12.5% 12.0% 10.2% 9.4% 8.7% 8.5% 8.1% 7.3% 6.6% 6.0% 4.1% 4.1% 2.2% did not contest 0.4% 0.5%

Limburg[edit]

See also: Provincial Council of Limburg

Seats[edit]

Polling firm Release
date 		Sample
size 		CDA FvD PVV VVD SP GL PvdA D66 LL [g] PvdD 50+ CU JA21 BBB BVNL Others Lead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 2023 743 3 2 10 5 4 5 3 3 0 2 0 0 3 7 0 0 3
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 2023 511 4 2 9 7 5 3 4 4 2 1 0 0 2 4 0 0 2
2019 election 20 Mar 2019 – 9 7 7 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 did not contest 0 2

Vote Share[edit]

Polling firm Release
date 		Sample
size 		CDA FvD PVV VVD SP GL PvdA D66 LL [g] PvdD 50+ CU JA21 BBB BVNL Others Lead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 2023 743 6.0% 5.2% 18.7% 9.8% 8.7% 10.1% 5.8% 6.4% 1.6% 3.9% 1.5% 0.6% 5.4% 12.4% 1.2% 2.4% 6.3%
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 2023 511 8.6% 4.6% 16.8% 12.8% 9.6% 6.1% 7.7% 8.4% 4.4% 2.9% 1.4% 1.1% 5.3% 7.5% 0.3% 2.5% 4.0%
2019 election 20 Mar 2019 – 18.7% 14.6% 13.5% 10.2% 8.7% 8.4% 6.5% 5.8% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 1.1% did not contest 0.9% 4.1%

North Brabant[edit]

See also: Provincial Council of North Brabant

Seats[edit]

Polling firm Release
date 		Sample
size 		VVD FvD CDA SP D66 GL PVV PvdA 50+ PvdD LB [h] CU–SGP Volt JA21 BBB BVNL Others Lead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 2023 650 8 2 3 4 3 5 6 4 1 4 2 1 2 3 7 0 0 1
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 2023 506 13 1 5 6 3 4 8 2 1 3 0 0 3 0 6 0 0 5
2019 election 20 Mar 2019 – 10 9 8 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 did not contest 0 1

Vote Share[edit]

Polling firm Release
date 		Sample
size 		VVD FvD CDA SP D66 GL PVV PvdA 50+ PvdD LB [h] CU–SGP Volt JA21 BBB BVNL Others Lead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 2023 650 12.5% 3.7% 6.2% 6.6% 5.9% 9.0% 9.9% 7.7% 1.9% 6.8% 3.2% 2.7% 3.6% 5.5% 12.4% 1.1% 1.3% 0.1%
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 2023 506 20.9% 1.6% 8.8% 10.0% 5.3% 7.7% 12.5% 4.1% 2.5% 5.3% 1.3% 1.3% 5.3% – 9.9% – 3.6% 8.4%
2019 election 20 Mar 2019 – 16.2% 14.5% 13.3% 9.2% 8.8% 8.7% 7.6% 6.4% 4.1% 3.7% 2.5% 1.9% did not contest 3.1% 1.7%

North Holland[edit]

See also: Provincial Council of North Holland

Seats[edit]

Polling firm Release
date 		Sample
size 		FvD GL VVD D66 PvdA CDA PvdD PVV SP CU 50+ DENK Volt JA21 BBB BVNL Others Lead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 2023 796 3 6 8 4 6 1 6 3 2 1 0 2 3 4 6 0 0 2
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 2023 512 2 6 11 6 4 3 4 4 4 1 1 1 1 3 4 0 0 5
2019 election 20 Mar 2019 – 9 9 9 6 6 4 3 3 3 1 1 1 did not contest 0 Tie

Vote Share[edit]

Polling firm Release
date 		Sample
size 		FvD GL VVD D66 PvdA CDA PvdD PVV SP CU 50+ DENK Volt JA21 BBB BVNL Others Lead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 2023 796 6.1% 10.1% 12.5% 7.3% 9.4% 2.6% 9.2% 5.8% 3.9% 2.3% 1.1% 3.3% 5.6% 7.6% 10.5% 0.3% 2.7% 2.0%
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 2023 512 3.7% 11.0% 18.5% 10.1% 6.4% 6.2% 6.5% 7.2% 7.0% 1.9% 2.0% 2.3% 1.9% 5.7% 7.1% 0.8% 1.8% 7.5%
2019 election 20 Mar 2019 – 15.33% 15.26% 14.5% 9.9% 9.8% 6.8% 6.1% 5.6% 5.0% 3.1% 2.8% 2.4% did not contest 3.4% 0.07%

Amsterdam[edit]

Polling firm Release
date 		Sample
size 		GL D66 PvdA VVD PvdD FvD DENK SP PVV CDA CU 50+ Volt JA21 BBB BVNL Others Lead
O&S 25 Feb 2023 1,246 18.3% 11.3% 17.5% 9.5% 10.7% 1.5% 3.5% 5.7% 2.0% 1.0% 2.1% – 2.9% 3.2% 4.7% – 6.2% 0.8%
2019 election 20 Mar 2019 – 23.8% 13.6% 11.4% 10.9% 8.7% 8.7% 6.0% 5.0% 3.4% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% did not contest 2.2% 10.2%

Overijssel[edit]

See also: Provincial Council of Overijssel

Seats[edit]

Polling firm Release
date 		Sample
size 		CDA FvD VVD GL PvdA CU PVV SP D66 SGP 50+ PvdD Volt JA21 BBB BVNL Others Lead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 2023 724 4 2 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 0 2 2 2 12 0 0 5
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 2023 513 6 1 7 4 2 2 4 3 3 2 0 1 1 1 9 1 0 2
2019 election 20 Mar 2019 – 9 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 did not contest 0 3

Vote Share[edit]

Polling firm Release
date 		Sample
size 		CDA FvD VVD GL PvdA CU PVV SP D66 SGP 50+ PvdD Volt JA21 BBB BVNL Others Lead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 2023 724 7.9% 3.7% 9.6% 8.3% 6.7% 5.6% 6.7% 3.8% 5.5% 3.5% 0.1% 4.0% 4.3% 5.2% 23.1% 0.9% 1.1% 13.5%
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 2023 513 11.0% 2.5% 13.8% 7.9% 5.1% 4.6% 7.7% 5.8% 6.4% 3.6% 0.2% 3.0% 2.2% 3.5% 18.0% 2.4% 2.4% 4.2%
2019 election 20 Mar 2019 – 17.1% 13.3% 12.9% 9.5% 8.5% 8.3% 7.2% 5.9% 5.8% 3.9% 3.4% 3.0% did not contest 1.2% 3.8%

South Holland[edit]

See also: Provincial Council of South Holland

Seats[edit]

Polling firm Release
date 		Sample
size 		FvD VVD GL D66 PvdA CDA PVV CU 50+ PvdD SP SGP DENK Volt JA21 BBB BVNL Others Lead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 2023 815 1 7 5 5 4 3 6 2 1 4 2 2 1 2 4 6 0 0 1
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 2023 500 3 11 5 4 3 3 7 2 1 3 2 3 1 0 3 4 0 0 4
Motivaction 1–31 Jan 2023 800+ 1 8 4 5 4 3 8 2 1 3 4 2 1 1 3 5 0 0 Tie
2019 election 20 Mar 2019 – 11 10 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 did not contest 0 1

Vote Share[edit]

Polling firm Release
date 		Sample
size 		FvD VVD GL D66 PvdA CDA PVV CU 50+ PvdD SP SGP DENK Volt JA21 BBB BVNL Others Lead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 2023 815 2.1% 11.6% 9.4% 8.2% 8.0% 4.8% 10.2% 3.6% 1.9% 6.4% 4.7% 3.8% 2.0% 4.8% 6.8% 10.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.9%
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 2023 500 4.7% 17.8% 8.5% 6.6% 6.0% 4.8% 11.5% 4.5% 2.4% 5.6% 3.5% 5.6% 1.9% 1.5% 6.0% 7.6% 0.6% 0.8% 6.3%
Motivaction 1–31 Jan 2023 800+ 2.5% 12.0% 7.5% 7.8% 6.8% 5.1% 12.7% 3.4% 1.6% 5.4% 6.5% 3.5% 2.3% 2.8% 5.8% 8.9% – 5.5% 0.7%
2019 election 20 Mar 2019 – 17.4% 15.7% 9.1% 8.5% 7.8% 7.7% 7.0% 5.6% 4.4% 4.4% 4.1% 3.9% 2.7% did not contest 1.6% 1.7%

Utrecht[edit]

See also: Provincial Council of Utrecht

Seats[edit]

Polling firm Release
date 		Sample
size 		GL VVD FvD CDA D66 PvdA CU PVV PvdD SP SGP 50+ DENK Volt JA21 BBB BVNL Others Lead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 2023 760 8 6 0 2 6 3 3 3 3 1 2 0 0 2 5 5 0 0 2
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 2023 503 7 9 0 3 5 3 2 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 3 3 0 0 2
2019 election 20 Mar 2019 – 8 8 6 5 5 4 4 2 2 2 1 1 1 did not contest 0 Tie

Vote Share[edit]

Polling firm Release
date 		Sample
size 		GL VVD FvD CDA D66 PvdA CU PVV PvdD SP SGP 50+ DENK Volt JA21 BBB BVNL Others Lead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 2023 760 14.3% 11.0% 1.6% 5.2% 11.1% 6.4% 5.7% 6.8% 6.4% 2.7% 3.9% 1.0% 0.4% 4.3% 9.1% 8.7% 0.4% 0.7% 3.2%
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 2023 503 13.4% 16.3% 0.4% 5.6% 9.6% 6.6% 5.0% 9.8% 5.7% 3.5% 3.1% 2.0% 1.7% 3.3% 5.6% 5.2% 1.5% 1.6% 2.9%
2019 election 20 Mar 2019 – 16.1% 15.3% 11.6% 9.9% 9.4% 7.3% 7.3% 4.9% 4.7% 3.9% 3.5% 2.9% 2.1% did not contest 1.1% 0.8%

Zeeland[edit]

See also: Provincial Council of Zeeland

Seats[edit]

Polling firm Release
date 		Sample
size 		CDA SGP FvD VVD PvdA GL PVV PvZ CU 50+ SP D66 PvdD JA21 BBB BVNL Others Lead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 2023 611 2 6 1 5 5 3 1 2 0 2 2 2 2 6 0 0 Tie
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 2023 259 7 4 1 7 5 3 2 1 0 2 2 1 1 3 0 0 Tie
2019 election 20 Mar 2019 – 7 5 5 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 did not contest 0 2

Vote Share[edit]

Polling firm Release
date 		Sample
size 		CDA SGP FvD VVD PvdA GL PVV PvZ CU 50+ SP D66 PvdD JA21 BBB BVNL Others Lead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 2023 611 6.0% 13.0% 2.1% 11.8% 12.2% 7.4% 4.0% 5.8% 1.6% 5.2% 5.4% 5.3% 5.0% 12.6% 2.0 0.4% 0.4%
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 2023 259 15.3% 10.0% 2.5% 15.3% 12.2% 7.7% 5.7% 3.3% 1.8% 4.6% 6.3% 3.5% 3.1% 7.6% – 1.1% Tie
2019 election 20 Mar 2019 – 16.3% 12.1% 11.8% 10.3% 8.4% 5.8% 6.2% 6.2% 5.2% 5.1% 4.8% 3.7% 3.5% did not contest 0.5% 4.2%

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ a b Strong Local Drenthe
  2. ^ a b Powerful Flevoland
  3. ^ DENK won one seat in the 2019 elections, but is not on the ballot in 2023.
  4. ^ a b Provincial Interests Frisia
  5. ^ a b Local Parties Gelderland
  6. ^ a b Groninger Interest
  7. ^ a b Local Limburg
  8. ^ a b Local Brabant

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Dag van stemming Provinciale Staten" (in Dutch). Kiesraad. Retrieved 4 March 2023.
  2. ^ "Mogelijk extra zetels voor het Drents Parlement" (in Dutch). Provinciale Staten Drenthe. Retrieved 4 March 2023.
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