Talk:2005 Atlantic hurricane season/December

Week 1

Looks like the season is going into overtime once again! Anyone think this season will get a Christmas "present" in an active December? CrazyC83 23:08, 30 November 2005 (UTC)

If the season keeps up, (and, unfortunatly, I think it will), yes. --Freiberg, Let's talk!, contribs 03:15, 1 December 2005 (UTC)

And it's finally December 1st on the East Coast. -- RattleMan 05:02, 1 December 2005 (UTC)

Which also means the official end of the season. And an amazing one at that. NSLE _{(讨论+extra)} 05:05, 1 December 2005 (UTC)

The official end yes. The real end no. Only God knows when that will be. After all these Greek fraternities and sororities are still trying to do anything to get a part of history...since in 31 days, it's back to Alberto... CrazyC83 05:08, 1 December 2005 (UTC)

Pull-eaze...the Greek letter storms are not each a fraternity or a sorority,they are collectively one fraternity/sorority,each storm a brother or sister.Just like all the previous storms were each one "man" or "woman".--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 19:49, 1 December 2005 (UTC)

30L.Epsilon

See Talk:2005 Atlantic hurricane season/Epsilon

The Final Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 010315
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1030 PM EST WED NOV 30 2005 

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM EPSILON... LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 700 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1615 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

TODAY IS THE OFFICIAL END OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...
AND THIS IS THE LAST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON. 
ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL RESUME ON JUNE 1 2006. 
WHILE THIS IS THE LAST OUTLOOK...ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM
EPSILON WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE STORM DISSIPATES.

FORECASTER BEVEN

Just for posterity... -- RattleMan 03:31, 1 December 2005 (UTC)

Should that be put in Wikisource? Titoxd^{(?!? - did you read this?)} 03:35, 1 December 2005 (UTC)

Are there Invests in the off-season? Or do off-season storms come up by surprise and by an NHC decision? CrazyC83 03:57, 1 December 2005 (UTC)

TWDs are still issued offseason, are they not? NSLE _{(讨论+extra)} 05:10, 1 December 2005 (UTC)

Indeed. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 14:30, 1 December 2005 (UTC)

Winds now to 80mph, Epsilon refuses to give up. Weatherman90 21:20, 3 December 2005 (UTC)

-falls over- Epsilon is STILL a hurricane, Winds at 75mph. Who's gonna bet were gonna have a Christmas Hurricane? (Motto for this season: Nothing is impossible) Epsilon's motto: The Little Hurricane That Won't Give Up. Everyone, including the NHC, is going to have a nice winter and Spring...Bloing 5 December, 2005, 9:12 (UTC)

Relax. It's over now. --Mark J 20:20, 8 December 2005 (UTC)

AoI:12W1A - East-Central Atlantic

Strong convective activity at about 15°N, 30°W. Not much chance of development (but then again, this IS the 2005 season, so nothing is impossible). CrazyC83 17:25, 4 December 2005 (UTC)

Do you mean 5°N? There shouldn't be enough coriolis force there to get it spinning, but of course, this is 2005. --AySz88^-^ 17:46, 4 December 2005 (UTC)

This is 2005. We know. It's kind of getting old. Mike H. That's hot 23:57, 4 December 2005 (UTC)

Huh? It really wasn't meant as a joke, if you took it that way. I meant it as in "This is 2005," therefore, logic, climatology, and common sense don't work with regard to the tropics, and whatever I say (and anyone else says) might be blown to bits by this crazy season.

If you'd like to take it to an extreme - considering that the "2005 effect" was identified way back and later events corroborated its existence, one might make a stretch and say it's a verified scientific theory.

(I'm having too much fun playing with this. :p ) --AySz88^-^ 01:04, 5 December 2005 (UTC)

I was actually responding to CrazyC83 (although I can see how you took it as a response to you since it was under yours). CrazyC83 always says "This IS 2005" and it's gotten to the point where the horse, she hath been beaten to death, and now every time he says it, it's almost the subject of parody. Mike H. That's hot 02:18, 5 December 2005 (UTC)

7:05 p.m. TWD:

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1024 MB HIGH IS JUST SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N67W PRODUCING LIGHT 
WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER OVER W ATLANTIC.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH 
NO CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 32N47W TO 25N60W.  HURRICANE EPSILON 
IS JUST N OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC PRODUCING 
CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW N OF 25N BETWEEN 25W-45W AND FAIR WEATHER 
S OF 31N.  A 1022 MB HIGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 
34N5W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 
70W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 50W-70W.  WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW 
CONTINUES OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 50W.  AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
5N30W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-50W.  EXPECT 
AN INCREASE OF ITCZ CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
ESPECIALLY FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 10W-60W.  

It's anticyclonic as of now. NSLE _{(讨论+extra CVU)} 01:11, 5 December 2005 (UTC)

Wow, that makes no sense. Shouldn't convection be strongest at places with cyclonic circulation (and low pressure)? --AySz88^-^ 02:26, 5 December 2005 (UTC)

Actually it does, the increased convection is projected on the south side of the anticyclonic flow. The flow out of the anticyclone and into the ITCZ would cause more convergence, thus more convection.

There is nothing organized here! All I see is scattered showers. You cannot see an anticyclone well, it is an upper troposhpheric feature. There is no low pressure area here. There is no cyclonic rotation, or any convection whatsoever. That shower activity you see there does not equal convection. All it is is tropical rainstorms that the ITCZ churns out all year round. Why are we even talking about this? This is a waste of space. It's December! The season is over, give it up. There is nothing forming out there. Just Epsilon. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 22:22, 5 December 2005 (UTC)

But Eric, you're forgetting... this IS 2005. Just ask CrazyC83, I'm sure he'll tell you. - RPIRED 04:05, 6 December 2005 (UTC)

Care what year it is, this year may have defied several easily broken, yet rarely attempted, laws of nature. Yet it has not and will not defy the laws of physics! -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 05:25, 6 December 2005 (UTC)

Perish the thought! How dare you challenge the 2005 like that! ;) RPIRED 22:09, 6 December 2005 (UTC)

And the way physics work would want high pressure to dissipate towards low pressure but the earth is spinning, thus where it wanted to dissipate to no longer is where the higher pressure wanted to go...and then all of a sudden...barring topographical resistance...coriolis points to a counter clockwise solution...ergo...since the earth is still spinning...and since there is still a major vertical gradient between cold sky and toasty ocean, we can still dread more from the tropics...since it is 2005. Epsilon was a hurricane in cool water... dude, 2005, we fear thee. Hopquick 05:40, 17 December 2005 (UTC)

Week 2

Could we have peace at last (and a much-needed winter break for the NHC)? Or do the tropics still have a bag of tricks left in store? CrazyC83 17:37, 8 December 2005 (UTC)

The north Atlantic SSTs remain anomolously warm for this time of year, and indeed just plain anomolously warm off of the coast of Africa [1]. OTOH, the winds are totally hostile to tropical storm formation, especailly over the tropical north Atlantic where the waters are the warmest. So I get the feeling that the tropics do still have a "bag of tricks" in store, but they will have difficulty reaching into it. For now. However, there is always next year [2]. --EMS | Talk 16:17, 9 December 2005 (UTC)

What do people make of the idea that a possible storm may come from remnants of Epsilon? Jeff Masters says that there is a possibility next week that we could see Zeta. And the low has dipped below 1000 MB according to the 7:05 update at NHC. SargeAbernathy 00:12, 11 December 2005 (UTC)

I think it would cost me my betting pool victory! Jdorje 00:24, 11 December 2005 (UTC)

The commentors at Jeff Masters blog seem about ready to name a new storm, Zeta. Too bad the folks at NHC don't seem to be as willing. Anyone else here think that by 7:30 they will be forced to call up Zeta? SargeAbernathy 18:47, 11 December 2005 (UTC)

7:05 TWD:

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 22.5N-30N 
BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 22W.  THIS LOW IS BEING WATCHED FOR 
SIGNS OF SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS COMPUTER MODELS 
SUGGEST IT COULD BECOME MORE OF A HYBRID SYSTEM WITH TIME.  FOR NOW 
THERE ISN'T MUCH CENTRAL CONVECTION AND IT IS TOO ENTANGLED WITH 
FRONTS TO EVEN CONSIDER SUBTROPICAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS.  FOR 
WHAT IT IS WORTH... A CONSENSUS OF COMPUTER MODELS FORECAST THIS 
SYSTEM TO BE THE MOST SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL ON THE 13TH. 

We *may* get something soon. NSLE _(T+C+CVU) 00:19, 12 December 2005 (UTC)

What is that thing northeast of Nicaragua right now? Seems active for me... -unknown

It looks poorly organized... CrazyC83 18:30, 12 December 2005 (UTC)

If the season is truly over and nothing comes from this system. The season would have ran for 6 months exaclty June 8, Arlene to Dec. 8 Epsilon. Very fascinating. tduwhs

That's 6 months and 1 day ;-). Jdorje 01:42, 13 December 2005 (UTC)

A day? —The preceding unsigned comment was added by 66.189.156.178 (talk • contribs) 23:51, December 13, 2005 (UTC).

Agreed with the Anon; where did that extra day come from? Also, why are we refusing to let this season go? Suddenly, scattered showers and thunderstorms equal probable tropical development. NO! The season died whe Epsilon breathed his last breath. You guys are spending too much time looking as the discussions' complex meterological termonology for something you know. This season has defied the record books, but not the laws of nature. Looking at the sat photos, the disturbance near Africa looks good at first glance. But if you did a little deeper, the low pressure area is detached from the convection by about 50-100 miles and as well it should be, given the fact that wind shear on is near hurricane force! No more tropical cyclones, we're done. Let's now worry about snow and blizzards and wrapping presents and wonder what we'll get on that special day. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 06:49, 16 December 2005 (UTC)

Hey man, I've been saying for months that the season would end on December 8th! Now it's dead, and it should remain so. Jdorje 07:47, 16 December 2005 (UTC)

The season started on June 8th. If the season were exactly six months long, it would have ended on December 7th. But Epsilon died on December 8th. To make this more clear, compare it to this: From January 1st until February 1st is one month plus a day.

Plus, I believe the above users were discussing the possible Tropical Storm Zeta that Dr. Jeff Masters talked about in his blog. Just to note, Dr. Masters has since said that the storm system he was referring to won't become Zeta. 青い(Aoi) 07:35, 16 December 2005 (UTC)

Hah hah, I was just making a joke...I didn't mean to start an argument. The true answer is that those dates are 6 months long, to within a day. If Arlene formed at the exact same time of day on the 8th as Epsilon disbanded on the 8th, then that would be 6 months. However from the beginning of June 8th to the end of December 8th is 6 months and one day. So let's see...arlene's first report is 21:00 UTC on June 8th...epsilon's last report was 15:00 UTC on December 8th...so that is 6 hours short of 6 months. Jdorje 07:43, 16 December 2005 (UTC)

Week 3

Doesn't seem like much is happening. Something morbid in me want to see one more spin around like Epsilon. Perhaps it's time to start seriously cracking at any TO-DO items before we forget about 2005. (We can all only obsess about 2005 for a little bit longer) Hopquick 04:45, 16 December 2005 (UTC)

Yea, I want Zeta to form, become a major hurricane (almost impossible, I know, too much shear, yada, yada), get at least an ACE value of 3 (if it makes major hurricane, very likely), and be a fish-spinner. Fableheroesguild 01:30, 17 December 2005 (UTC)

So do you want a Cape Verde storm which makes the 2nd landfall in China?

That would be a pretty impressive feat. And I'm not just talking about managing to sustain convection for that long of distance/time. I'm talking about passing through the Carribbean and the mainland clear to the Pacific with only one official landfall. Can someone make a hypothetical track map that would accomplish that? -- PK9 20:23, 16 December 2005 (UTC)

Yes. 72KB ~2.5MB —The preceding unsigned comment was added by Ctrl build (talk • contribs) 01:50, December 17, 2005 (UTC).

RE:the image -- I would have gone between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic...lots of small islands in the lesser antilles, it would have to be a very tight eye. And going over Lake Cocibolca in Nicaragua might count as a going over a semi major body of water, ergo a second landing. Would there be enough coriolis(sp?) to allow a more southern route like Panama. It would then have less land to go over and thus could maintain more convection, with less topographical shredding. Wow. This is majorly off topic. All I was trying to say is that this season has been so horrifically facinating that the calm now seems almost odd, like something is wrong. 70.177.68.209 05:12, 17 December 2005 (UTC)\

Hope springs eternal. Is there some counter-clockwise spinning in the atlantic...could it be?! Look at an animated loop. You know its going to happen...it's 2005. :) Seriously though, any opinions? 70.177.68.209 08:02, 17 December 2005 (UTC)

Didn't realize that was a lake. Ooops. I chose Nicaragua because that track has occured before. --Ctrl build 06:10, 17 December 2005 (UTC)

I just remembered between Puetro Rico and the Dominican Republic is isla deseches (Image:Rico.png). --Ctrl build 14:22, 17 December 2005 (UTC)

Right now, I am just trying to decide on whether to create an article for the ice/snow storm that hit eastern North America over the last 48 hours...not exactly on the hurricane topic, but still within weather... CrazyC83 05:21, 16 December 2005 (UTC)

Unnotable. Unless it caused major, major economic effects, on the level of a Charley rather than a Dennis, or caused massive deaths, 200+, then I'd say no, it's just another cold snap. --Golbez 05:41, 16 December 2005 (UTC)

If a Hurricane did that feat, it would have to go through Wind Shear, but you know this season, nothing is impossible. Is Vince, Epsilon, Wilma, and Arlene could do it, then maybe it is possible for (future, maybe?) Zeta. And it would have to have three different names. -laughs- now that would be rare! -thinks- I wonder if any other Tropical Cyclone had three names... EDIT: Holy crap! I spelled my name wrong! O.o Bloing

I'll bite. Hurricane Hattie in 1961 is often known as the storm with three names, as it moved from Caribbean to EPAC (became Simone), then turned to the north and became Inga in the Gulf of Mexico. However, if it were to go from the Atlantic to the Western Pacific, it could to it on one name. Based on a new policy change, storms from the Atlantic to the Pacific keep their name if their circulation stays intact. Hurricanehink 16:15, 17 December 2005 (UTC)

There's still a small chance of development, but I don't see any storm that forms becoming a hurricane. --Revolución (talk) 03:23, 18 December 2005 (UTC)

I didn't know that policy! O.o wow. I get a little too glued into studying history. There were alot of Hurricanes that had two names. For example, in 1988, Hurricane Joan made landfall in..I think Nicaragua, and crossed into the Pacific, getting the name, Tropical Storm Mirim. Oh, and I'm starting to lose my bettings. Epsilon was the last to form. -pops champaigne- Bloing 21 December, 21:33 (UTC)

Week 4

It looks like we are home free at last. Finally, the exhausted folks at the National Hurricane Centre, and all of us, can enjoy peace and quiet and a much-deserved holiday. Hopefully Mother Nature won't break in and call them in on Christmas Day or anytime around there.

Merry Christmas to everyone here and in the NHC and other places of interest!!! (or Happy Hanukkah, or whatever you celebrate) CrazyC83 20:40, 23 December 2005 (UTC)

You too, and everyone else. :) --AySz88^-^ 21:22, 23 December 2005 (UTC)

Even though I'm late, you guys I wish too. -sigh- no more little suprises in the Atlantic, which is a huge relief. Bloing|talk  17:28, 26 December 2005 (UTC)

I guess Mother Nature decided that the exhausted NHC needs to have their Christmas break cut short...*sigh* CrazyC83 15:40, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

Week "5"

31L.Zeta

AoI: E. Atlantic

Do I see some circulation in this convection bunch? Hmm... -- RattleMan 14:59, 29 December 2005 (UTC)

Oh dear. At least it only has a couple days left to develop into a 2005 storm. I expect it to fall apart at midnight January 1 when it loses the 2005-effect. :p :p --AySz88^-^ 19:09, 29 December 2005 (UTC)

Oh please. This thing isn't even a low pressure area: [3], it's just scattered showers. It's also under 20-30 knot wind shear [4]. Now could we please stop fretting. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 02:32, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

I was wondering what on earth that was...it's way out in Vince territory! My estimate on chance of development: 5% into an Invest, 1% into TD30. CrazyC83 03:49, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

Wow, this is embarassing. I now find myself eating my words. But this thing seriously developed a low pressure center and significant convection literally overnight. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 18:31, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

It fooled even me; I wasn't expecting it to become Zeta last night either!!! At least 2006 is just around the corner...but I don't know if the tropics will care... CrazyC83 21:52, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

Looks like I won the pool.ColdRedRain 21:55, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

97L.INVEST

And, well, what do you know! It's an invest, ladies and gentlemen! [5] -- RattleMan 13:28, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

Words cannot describe how I responded. NSLE _(T+C+CVU) 13:31, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

Clicking on the image, the tag says 40kt, meaning if we get this before Sunday it's (Sub)Tropical Storm Zeta immediately. NSLE _(T+C+CVU) 13:33, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

TWD seems to agree that it could become Zeta: NSLE _(T+C+CVU) 13:37, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

1006 MB GALE LOW IS NEAR 24N36W IN THE NE ATLC MOVING WNW 5-10 
KT.  WELL-PLACED BUOY OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTER INDICATE A 
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1006.7 MB AT 8Z WHEN THE SYSTEM PASSED... 
FALLING RAPIDLY FROM 0Z AND 10.1 MB IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.  FIRST 
VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW DEEP CONVECTION ORGANIZING IN BANDS AROUND 
THE CENTER AND IT IS NOT INCONCEIVABLE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD 
BECOME "ZETA" BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR.  SHEAR IS FORECAST TO 
REMAIN MODEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN INCREASE THEREAFTER.  
SSTS ARE MARGINAL.. ABOUT 23-24C BUT COOL 200 MB TEMPS COULD 
HELP TO BALANCE THE BORDERLINE SSTS.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0752Z 
INDICATED WINDS OF GALE FORCE.. PROBABLY TO NEAR 40 KT.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM IN THE NRN 
SEMICIRCLE AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE 
SE QUADRANT.

-All I can say is WOW Weatherman90 15:13, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

Can anyone say "Alice"? The big question is whether this will become Zeta or Alberto? IMO, if it becomes Zeta or Alberto, it should immediately get its own article on grounds of how rare it is.

Also, if we have monthly discussions in January, we should not mark the weeks down (just group it by months in the 2006 page) because of the limited information.CrazyC83 15:36, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

Perhaps. I have no problems with that but we need to hunt down some information. I suggest we wait for the post-storm report on it before we create the article. So then we'd have detail info about its formation, existance and death. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 18:35, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Zeta

As I type this, The Weather Channel is announcing that Zeta has formed. Unbelievable end to an unbelievable season. --Patteroast 16:14, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

And some confirmation from NHC:

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL STORM ABOUT 1000
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.  A SPECIAL ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL STORM ZETA IS IN PREPARATION AND WILL BE ISSUED IN AN HOUR
OR SO.

--Patteroast 16:18, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

...! No words...Alice has FALLEN... -- RattleMan 16:18, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

This is unbelieveable!!! A harbinger for things to come in 2006??? Because of its timing, I believe that we should immediately create the Tropical Storm Zeta article. Time to call in the crews from Christmas Break! (See the 2006 talk page for more discussion - a mid-winter surprise in Alberto?) CrazyC83 16:31, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

What!? What!? I come back here to poke around and I see "Tropical Storm Zeta currently active." What!? - Cuivienen 17:30, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

I think actor Lloyd Bridges said it best in the movie Airplane!: "Looks like I picked a bad day to stop smoking." This is just insane! --Bushido Hacks 17:40, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

"Looks like I picked a bad day to stop drinking.", "Looks like I picked a bad day to sniff glue".Lets get back to the topic.HurricaneCraze32 17:43, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

I'd like to echo the above comment with a line from Independence Day: "I picked a Hell of a day to quit drinkin'". I just logged on to the Internet about ten minutes ago and saw that the Hurricane Center had "Zeta" up. At first I thought, "This is a joke right?". Then I thought that this could be a test storm like the one in 2002. Then I saw the tropical disturbance statement below it and knew this was no joke or test. Apparently this hurricane season has no concept of rules, Climatology, or regulations. Watch it fall apart on January 1st. I think 'insane' is a little bit of an understatement now. This season is well past insane. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 18:17, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

One thing is certain, their probably alot of hurricane hunters who are ticked off right now because this is suppost to be their downtime. Regardless, the weather in the Atlantic has been unbelievable this year. One storm I was particluarly tracking this summer was Maria. However, the NHC transfers responsibility over to AWIPS (whoever they are), the marine weather office (which I'm not to familiar with), or to the World Meteorological Organization, who obviously ignore it unless Switzerland gets hit with a hurricane. Because NHC did not continue tracking Maria by declaring it extra-tropical when it was far from extra-tropical strength, they did not track Maria as it hit Iceland and Scandinavia where one person was killed. Just cause a storm loses its tropical nature does not mean that when it hits inland it is over. Katrina was a good example of this. Katrinas reminance traveled as far north as Canada and had flooded inland states including Kentucy, Indiana, and Ohio. While the National Weather Service is one of the best meteorological agencies in the world, it needs improvement. --Bushido Hacks 19:12, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

Agreed. Those storms are often at tropical storm strength, and sometimes (as with Maria) at hurricane strength, when such happens. Delta was another "forgotten" example - when it hit the Canary Islands and killed 7, the NHC had long issued their final advisory. Last year's Frances and Ivan were also infamous examples - they caused severe flooding up to 5 days after landfall! CrazyC83 19:15, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

One should note that extratropical doesn't mean "weak", it just means it's not tropical anymore; you wouldn't really want to make the NHC track a blizzard that happens to have hurricane-force winds. The Tropical Prediction Center only specializes in tropical systems, after all. The NHC is already taking more responsibility than they really have to, too, since they have to cover basically all of North America.

I would hope they don't make the hurricane hunters fly out to the east side of the Atlantic Ocean, but I don't think they would. --AySz88^-^ 19:35, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

Firstly, AWIPS is not a meteorological organization... it's a software program that the NWS uses. Secondly, "extratropical strength" is not a term they use, since an extratropical storm can be of any strength. The NHC's responsibility is to issue advisories on tropical cyclones, and regardless of a storm's strength or location, if it's extratropical, it's not their problem anymore to deal with.

The NWS has other offices, like the local offices and HPC, to worry about flooding concerns after a tropical cyclone moves inland. They do a great job of it, but usually on a local scale, so just because you don't hear about each individual flood warning on CNN doesn't mean that the areas effected aren't receiving proper forecasts and warning information. --The Great Zo 19:56, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

What are the chances of this becoming Hurricane Zeta? CrazyC83 18:46, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

CrazyC83, everytime you speculate something that seems impossible, it comes true. I'll be checking for Alberto in early-mid January. —BazookaJoe 18:54, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

None, the water temps are not high enough for this to become anything [6], in fact, accuweather shows this dissipating by tomorrow [7]. --CFIF 18:57, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

Epsilon became a hurricane over 21-24°C water though, and Delta almost did over the same temperatures...am I giving the tropics ideas or something? Now let's try something that is DEFINITELY impossible, such as a Category 5 hurricane in the off-season...now if that ever happened, then you might as well make the whole year "hurricane season". CrazyC83 19:13, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

Turns out Zeta and Alice are tied for the latest storm to form in the Atlantic [8]. They also say Zeta may not have even reached that, hinting that it could have been a storm earlier than thought. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 21:21, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

We'll know for sure in the final report in January. It may take a historian to find out for sure! CrazyC83 21:27, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

This brings up a potential formatting problem for the timeline. If Zeta dissipates in January, are we going to put the dissipation entry in this article or the 2006AHS article? -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 21:47, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

I'd put it in this article; that seems to be how the 1954 Alice was set up. It is officially a 2005 storm that is part of the 2005 season, regardless of when it dissipates. Also important news on storm intensities (i.e. if one of the near-hurricanes is upgraded) should be mentioned on that page, similar to when Gaston was declared a hurricane on November 19, 2004. The timeline is for the 2005 hurricane season; it should include everything relevant from that season, regardless of when it actually took place. CrazyC83 21:58, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

I think it should go into both; it's a storm from the 2005 season, but remember that once 7pm EST Dec 31 (midnight 1/1/06 UTC) hits, we are now in the 2006 hurricane season. --Golbez 22:11, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

Following E Brown's timeline thinking, what if it becomes a hurricane in 2006? (now 10% chance according to the estimates)? Many cyclones this year have exceeded the 10% probability threshold of the NHC's intensity charts. It's at 60mph right now (or is that knots?) According to the way we're thinking that would be a (oh I've lost count) 14th or 15th - 2005 hurricane...right? Hopquick 13:22, 31 December 2005 (UTC)

<---- I think it would be called a 2006 hurricane, but a 2005 TS. Look at Epsilon. It was a November TS, but called a December hurricane. The same should apply between years. Hurricanehink 14:48, 31 December 2005 (UTC)

So It should be named hurricane Alberto by then? RoswellAtup

Its name will remain Zeta until it dissipates. --Golbez 16:09, 31 December 2005 (UTC)

Hmmm... What if it lost circulation and then regenerated? - Cuivienen 18:03, 31 December 2005 (UTC)

We went over this with TD10->TD12, not to mention Ivan. If the new system can be conclusively determined to be formed from the remnants of the old system - as Ivan was - it retains its old designation. If there was any addition of another system - as TD10 was - it's given a new designation. --Golbez 18:20, 31 December 2005 (UTC)

5 PM Discussion:

ZETA REMAINS LOCATED SOUTH OF WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE. COUNTERING THIS SLOW WESTWARD STEERING IS THE
CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY...WITH THE RESULT THAT ZETA HAS MOVED LITTLE
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENS...A SLOW
WESTWARD MOTION OF THE CENTER SHOULD RESUME IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
UNTIL THE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THAT
POINT THE REMNANTS OF EPSILON WILL LIKELY BE DEFLECTED NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 

The remnants of Epsilon are still out there? Damn, he's more of a fighter than we thought :) -- RattleMan 20:51, 31 December 2005 (UTC)

Are they getting too excited or something??? If that is indeed true, the "remnants of Epsilon" must have made 3 or 4 loops and dropped to a few clouds and light rain...also the GFDL model (latest run) takes Zeta up to a Category 2 hurricane! CrazyC83 21:55, 31 December 2005 (UTC)

Well, I must say that the GFDL was correct about other storms this season such as Katrina, Wilma and Epsilon that the other models predicted would be weak storms or not develop. Cat 2 seems like an overestimate, but, if Zeta survives the current bout of shear, it'll have clear sailing for a while.

And a chuckle at Hurricane Epsilon. I think Franklin needs some sleep. - Cuivienen 05:31, 1 January 2006 (UTC)

Happy New Year Zeta Jamie C 00:01, 1 January 2006 (UTC)

Yep! She nearly lost it but managed to hold on and may survive for quite some time in 2006... CrazyC83 03:27, 1 January 2006 (UTC)

looks like my prediction was exactly correct (including number of tropical storms and hurricanes), except for the predicted date of dissipation. --Revolución (talk) 23:16, 1 January 2006 (UTC)

11 PM Discussion:

THIS IS LIKE PREVIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE EPSILON ALL OVER AGAIN. MOST
OF THE CONVENTIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT ZETA SHOULD HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATED BY NOW...WELL IT IS NOT INDEED...AND ZETA IS PRETTY MUCH
ALIVE AT THIS TIME.

Uh oh :) -- RattleMan 03:07, 2 January 2006 (UTC)

The ACE record is looking to be within reach. Looking at the shear forecasts, Zeta will be in a low shear region in about 36 hours. If it can hold on that long it may be able to reach hurricane strength. - Cuivienen 03:41, 2 January 2006 (UTC)

Look at that! [9] Another round of deep convection since the last advisory. Looks like the NHC will have to bump it back up to 60 MPH or even more at 2100Z. Zeta's trying to become a hurricane before that system to the west sweeps it away. —BazookaJoe 19:33, 2 January 2006 (UTC)

I think we have an EYE forming believe it or not! [10] [11] Weatherman90 00:52, 3 January 2006 (UTC)

Back up to 60 mph (50 kt), though Dr. Avila said that that may be an underestimate. We are actually considering the possibility of system strengthening into a hurricane in January. The "2005 effect" continues on into 2006. - Cuivienen 04:34, 3 January 2006 (UTC)

Hmm...I looked on it just a minute ago. Pretty strong there, but if it starts wrapping...uh oh... ;P now if it live up to the 5th of January, that would be a birthday suprise. Bloing | Talk  16:49, 3 January 2006 (UTC)

From the 4 a.m. discussion:

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING ZETA
FROM THE WEST...BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE QUITE CONSISTENT IN
FORECASTING THIS TROUGH TO SPLIT AND DROP SOUTH OF ZETA.  IF THIS
OCCURS...THE WESTERLY SHEAR OVER ZETA COULD LESSEN SUBSTANTIALLY
OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND THE GFDL'S FORECAST OF A HURRICANE
DOESN'T LOOK SO UNREASONABLE ANY MORE.

Hurricane Zeta, anyone? Titoxd^{(?!? - help us)} 22:06, 3 January 2006 (UTC)

Yup....What a morning I had...-_- Power outages, and now a chance for a T.S to be a Hurricane... O.o And it's gonna live to my birthday. Why the heck is that every innocent (and usually what I say is sarcastically) thing I say comes true?! Bloing | Talk  14:17, 4 January 2006 (UTC)

The impossible

I know this is almost certainly not going to happen (although I might be giving the tropics ideas, it is STILL 2005 after all), but what would happen if a storm was named at the 10:00 pm EST advisory on December 31 (0300 UTC January 1) - would it be named Eta or Alberto? CrazyC83 16:49, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

Alberto. They go by the UTC time. At least that's what I read. Hurricanehink 16:51, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

This is just plain strange.2 days before 2006 and the 30th Storm forms.Looks like its the season that wouldn't quit. June 8-December 31st maybe?HurricaneCraze32 17:00, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

The ONLY thing this season lacked was a pre-season storm like Ana. CrazyC83 17:03, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

December just hasn't seemed like much of a problem for 2005. In 2003, both Odette and Peter developed from the same unusually strong and tropical frontal system. Epsilon and Zeta developed from two seperate weather systems. I think the Atlantic was trying to break the global deadlock. The entire globe has been quiet for the past week or two. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 18:22, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

What the [expletive]??? I thought this was the off-season! I come and check, and bam, TS Zeta... I'm just speechless. Titoxd^{(?!? - help us)} 21:00, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

From the 5pm discussion

"ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE SEEMS TO WANT TO DEVELOP TROPICAL STORMS AD NAUSEAM...THE CALENDAR WILL SHORTLY PUT AN END TO THE USE OF THE GREEK ALPHABET TO NAME THEM."

Indeed. No more Greeks. That doesn't nessisarily mean no more storms but no more Greeks. The next storm that forms in the Atlantic,(whenever that is), will be called Alberto. But I'm expecting a fresh round of insanity next year though. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 21:26, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

The Greek Letter Society has 27 hours to keep producing, and I don't see anything else out there with even a remote chance of development...safe to say Zeta is the end of the road. (Then again, we've closed the book once and surprise!) CrazyC83 21:32, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

Zeta developed from clear skies to a tropical storm basically overnight; over a period of about 12-16 hours. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 21:37, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

Even though Zeta isn't anywhere near the end of the Greek alphabet, the 'Z' name brings this storm to an appropriate end to this season. Americanadian 09:20, 31 December 2005 (UTC)

I wonder, official end of the hurricane season is November 30 but in recent years, December storm (or storms!) seem to have become norm rather than exception (noteworthy that long-time average for November storms is just 0.5 storms). I realize that we probably are just at the peak of the activity cycle, but if next few years feature December storms too, will they extend "official" season? --Mikoyan21 14:46, 31 December 2005 (UTC)

I've been thinking about that same thing. Perhaps they could extend the season into December 15 or something. It probably won't happen, but if this December activity continues for several more years, then it might. bob rulz 08:39, 1 January 2006 (UTC)

Only a special advisory within 2 hours could create Tropical Storm Eta now. CrazyC83 21:55, 31 December 2005 (UTC)

looks like my prediction was exactly correct (including number of tropical storms and hurricanes), except for the predicted date of dissipation. --Revolución (talk) 23:16, 1 January 2006 (UTC)