Talk:2024 Sri Lankan presidential election

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A news item involving 2024 Sri Lankan presidential election was featured on Wikipedia's Main Page in the In the news section on 24 September 2024.

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Errors/possible misunderstanding of reported opinion polls by Institute for Health Policy

IHP's voting intent estimates, which are reported in the Opinion polls section, are produced using multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) polling, which is a modeling approach to tracking public opinion. See Multilevel regression with poststratification for Wiki's write up, and the citation in that article to a New Scientist article discussing the YouGov use of MRP (https://www.newscientist.com/article/2134144-how-yougovs-experimental-poll-correctly-called-the-uk-election/#ixzz63vulf5ZP).

As the IHP reports, linked in the table, indicate, the sample sizes for the MRP estimates are the full sample over several months, so typically 10,000+. Wiki authors should consider this when reporting sample sizes. The actual full samples used in its MRP estimations are given in the linked documents.

As MRP polling is different to standard sample polling, this may make comparisons with other standard polls misleading. But this seems to be a generic issue in how polls are reported for elections in Wiki. Maybe a footnote should be added to the table to identify and elaborate on which of the polls use MRP modeling, with additional details. 49.45.134.55 (talk) 09:46, 10 February 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Helakuru poll

First of all, I am not a professional research scientist. However, I am literate enough in research methodology to tell what is a scientific poll and what is not. I am afraid, the Helakuru poll is not scientific. It is an open-access poll as opposed to a poll conducted by random sample selection. As such it lacks scientific elements such as frequency weighting, Reliability (statistics), variance and margin of error. A supermajority of its sample comes from youth, urban, educated, and Sinhala-speaking provinces demographic backgrounds. Per the 2016 population pyramid, the youth voters (those aged between 20-30) only account for about 3 million. When the total electorate is 17 million, there is a fair possibility that the youth electorate's wishes will be undermined, I am afraid.

As such I believe the Helakuru poll should not be included in this article. For those Sri Lankans who wish to be educated in scientific polling, I would like to suggest this YouTube video by Dr Ruchira Wijesena. Cheers. Chanaka L (talk) 14:16, 16 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Totally agree. A proper, scientific poll will weigh the sample/responses so that it reflects the demographic of the whole electorate e.g. age, gender, ethnicity, education level, socio-economic class etc. Otherwise you cannot extrapolate the results of the poll to say that's what will happen in the election. The Helakuru poll is no better than a poll on social media. Obi2canibe (talk) 09:53, 17 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Numbers.lk poll

There's a new poll from the numbers.lk that has not been updated on the article. https://numbers.lk/analysis/akd-maintains-lead-in-numbers-lk-s-2nd-pre-election-poll-ranil-surges-to-second-place Devon Ranatunge (talk) 19:53, 25 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Added the poll to the article. Not Wlwtn (talk) 20:52, 25 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Major/minor candidates

How was this judged? The media only really talked about the four ANURA KUMARA DISSANAYAKE SAJITH PREMADASA RANIL WICKREMESINGHE NAMAL RAJAPAKSA as the four main contenders. Some of the minor candidates earned more votes than the other two SARATH FONSEKA WIJEYADASA RAJAPAKSHE so it doesn’t make sense to keep these two as major candidates when most sources highlight the other four only as the major candidates. — Karnataka 13:43, 22 September 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Agreed. Vestrian24Bio (TALK) 13:58, 22 September 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Hindsight is a great thing.--Obi2canibe (talk) 14:02, 22 September 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Agreed. We should probably move those two to the minor candidates section. Looks like we were all guilty of WP:CRYSTAL! Not Wlwtn (talk) 14:04, 22 September 2024 (UTC)[reply]

They are quite prominent even though they did poorly. Fonseka received more than 40% of the vote at thee 2010 election. The SLFP is one of the two main parties in SL historically. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 175.157.26.129 (talk) 09:24, 24 September 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Dilith Jayaweera

Dilitha Jayaweera is not a communist party candidate. His party is Mawbima Janatha Party. If anything he’s the furtherest a candidate could be from the communist party. 112.134.230.21 (talk) 07:45, 24 September 2024 (UTC)[reply]

His party on the ballot was the Communist Party. It's true he's ideologically very far from being a communist, however he was endorsed by the Communist Party and that was his party on the ballot, not the MJP. Not Wlwtn (talk) 01:16, 26 September 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Name change!

i think we should change the name to 2024 Sri Lankan Elections.. NotMasterBread- (talk) 05:19, 26 September 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Why ? --Aréat (talk) 05:23, 26 September 2024 (UTC)[reply]

The title2024 Sri Lankan presidential election is more precise, while 2024 Sri Lankan elections is vague and implies multiple elections. The specific title should remain for clarity. For more information, see Elections in Sri Lanka and 2024 Sri Lankan parliamentary election. QEnigma (talk) 05:39, 26 September 2024 (UTC)[reply]