Talk:Opinion polling for the 2024 Portuguese legislative election

On 15 March 2022, it was proposed that this article be moved from Opinion polling for the 2026 Portuguese legislative election to Opinion polling for the next Portuguese legislative election. The result of the discussion was Consensus to move.

Elections and Referendums

This article is within the scope of WikiProject Elections and Referendums, an ongoing effort to improve the quality of, expand upon and create new articles relating to elections, electoral reform and other aspects of democratic decision-making. For more information, visit our project page.Elections and ReferendumsWikipedia:WikiProject Elections and ReferendumsTemplate:WikiProject Elections and ReferendumsElections and Referendums articles

Politics Low‑importance

	Politics portal This article is within the scope of WikiProject Politics, a collaborative effort to improve the coverage of politics on Wikipedia. If you would like to participate, please visit the project page, where you can join the discussion and see a list of open tasks.PoliticsWikipedia:WikiProject PoliticsTemplate:WikiProject Politicspolitics articles
Low	This article has been rated as Low-importance on the project's importance scale.

Portugal Low‑importance

This article is within the scope of WikiProject Portugal, a collaborative effort to improve the coverage of Portugal on Wikipedia. If you would like to participate, please visit the project page, where you can join the discussion and see a list of open tasks.PortugalWikipedia:WikiProject PortugalTemplate:WikiProject PortugalPortugal articles

Low

This article has been rated as Low-importance on the project's importance scale.

Portugal To-do:

Find correct name The airport is not listed as João Paulo II anywhere. The airport's own website calls itself simply Ponta Delgada, and has no mention of João Paulo.

Improve key articles to Good article

Improve

Review

Category:History of Portugal: lots to remove there
Template:Regions of Portugal: statistical (NUTS3) subregions and intercommunal entities are confused; they are not the same in all regions, and should be sublisted separately in each region: intermunicipal entities are sometimes larger and split by subregions (e.g. the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon has two subregions), some intercommunal entities are containing only parts of subregions. All subregions should be listed explicitly and not assume they are only intermunicipal entities (which accessorily are not statistic subdivisions but real administrative entities, so they should be listed below, probably using a smaller font: we can safely eliminate the subgrouping by type of intermunicipal entity from this box).

Requests

See Requested articles

Assess

Help assessing articles.

Need images

Translate from Portuguese Wikipedia

Wikify

Vote:

Watch this list — Edit this list

Move discussion in progress[edit]

There is a move discussion in progress on Talk:2026 Portuguese legislative election which affects this page. Please participate on that page and not in this talk page section. Thank you. —RMCD bot 21:07, 15 March 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Polling Graph[edit]

Hi, I was wondering if, considering precedent from the last elections, it would be an idea to make a LOESS image graph for this page. I would be able to do so, but I just wanted to ask first to confirm this would be acceptable rather than the current wiki-based graph. CC @Tuesp1985, @H3nrique Bregie, @Bogdy23636374478, @Leo0502. Thanks Quinby (talk) 13:57, 2 February 2023 (UTC)[reply]

I like the idea, you should go for it. H3nrique Bregie (talk) 23:04, 2 February 2023 (UTC)[reply]

Hi Quinby. I second Bregie on this, that would be a very good idea. Good work!Tuesp1985 (talk) 02:58, 3 February 2023 (UTC)[reply]

A Commons file used on this page or its Wikidata item has been nominated for deletion[edit]

The following Wikimedia Commons file used on this page or its Wikidata item has been nominated for deletion:

Luis Montenegro 02-07-2022.png

Participate in the deletion discussion at the nomination page. —Community Tech bot (talk) 02:48, 25 April 2023 (UTC)[reply]

ISCTE November poll[edit]

The ISCTE poll from November should not be included in the main poll table as it's a scenario poll with Pedro Nuno Santos and José Luís Carneiro as possible leaders. The new PS leader will only be elected in 16 December, and until then all polls that show both men as "leading the PS" should be put in the hypothetical scenarios content. When the poll was released, there was a bit of confusion as it seemed that there was a thrid poll with numbers regardless of the future PS leader, but the poll report only has the two scenario polls with the PS leadership candidates. ISCTE Poll report Tuesp1985 (talk) 12:25, 12 December 2023 (UTC)[reply]

Just ISCTE being ISCTE NotTheRealDiogoFaro (talk) 18:30, 12 December 2023 (UTC)[reply]

Paraná Pesquisa poll[edit]

CC @H3nrique Bregie, @Mestre Big Brother, @Quinnnnnby, @Rodri24, @Pedro Schuller, @Danopt, @Upoorde, @NotTheRealDiogoFaro Hi there, there is a poll conducted by Paraná Pesquisas, a Brazilian polling company, for the Portuguese legislative elections. The link is here. The poll seems legit, but it was published in CHEGA's political newspaper and ERC, the media regulator, because the polling company is not allowed to operate in Portugal, has opened an inquiry to investigate the situation. The data from the poll was collected by Intercampus, a Portuguese polling company. So, the question is if we should add the poll in the polling table. Open to opinions.Tuesp1985 (talk) 00:35, 23 February 2024 (UTC)[reply]

I think we should, it's still a poll for this election. In other countries' election polling there are also some polls that are added to the articles that are illegal because of legal bans. So I think we should add it. H3nrique Bregie (talk) 00:46, 23 February 2024 (UTC)[reply]

No. The poll is not legit.

Mestre Big Brother (talk) 14:26, 23 February 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Although it's undeniable that Paraná Pesquisas has strong ties to the Bolsonaro family, I must point out that this polling company has one of the best track records in brazilian elections, getting pretty close to the final result in both rounds in the 2018 and 2022 elections. As for it having pretty obvious ties to the brazilian Liberal Party, both Aximage and ISCTE-ICS have very clear connections to the Socialist Party yet no one ever asked for those polls to be removed, so I find odd that only now that seems to be an issue.

Aximage links to PS:

https://twitter.com/mlopes/status/1724362389347271020

ISCTE-ICS links to PS:

https://twitter.com/PSaserPS/status/1669629997986750465 NotTheRealDiogoFaro (talk) 17:25, 23 February 2024 (UTC)[reply]

According to usually reliable sources on Twitter there will be another brazilian poll coming out tonight on CNN Portugal by a company called "Duplimétrica", not sure if they are confusing it with the poll from Paraná Pesquisas or is it indeed another poll from another company. Duplimétrica has just been added to ERC list.

https://www.erc.pt/pt/sondagens/empresas-credenciadas-pela-erc NotTheRealDiogoFaro (talk) 17:32, 23 February 2024 (UTC)[reply]

The poll has been published on the ERC website and I added it to the polling table, with Intercampus as the polling company that conducted the poll.Tuesp1985 (talk) 11:46, 26 February 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Inclusion of ADN in the table[edit]

As of 27 February 2024, the last 3 Duplimétrica tracking polls have included the National Democratic Alternative, a party that is not in parliament. I think instead of getting into an edit war we should settle if they should be added to the table or not.

In my opinion, they should be added, since this is what is usually done to any party that is included in a poll (even if they are not in parliament), just like it is done for CH, IL, L and A in the 2019 opinion polling article, or PDR, MPT and L/TDA in the 2015 opinion polling article.

CC @Tuesp1985, @Mestre Big Brother, @Quinnnnnby, @Rodri24, @Pedro Schuller, @Danopt, @Upoorde, @NotTheRealDiogoFaro H3nrique Bregie (talk) 23:11, 27 February 2024 (UTC)[reply]

I agree, unfortunately Mestre Big Brother (talk) 23:28, 27 February 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Agree with you Upoorde (talk) 23:42, 27 February 2024 (UTC)[reply]

I think we should wait and see if this is just "statistical noise", like 0.6% that is round up to 1%, or a trend that holds. In 2019 and 2015, all parties, without seats, listed at the tables had shares of 3, 4 or 5% at some point, shown by different polling companies. In ADN's case, it's just one. I'm not against including it, but I vote for waiting a couple of days and see if they continue to appear.Tuesp1985 (talk) 00:38, 28 February 2024 (UTC)[reply]

I'm of the view that we should include parties once more than one polling agency has got numbers for a particular party. In many of the cases you have talked about, this is the case. In the mean time, it could be added as a note on the 'Others' figure^[a]

^ For example, ADN on 1%, Others on 4%

Quinby (talk) 09:03, 28 February 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Just realised that's already what's in place, so I would prefer to keep it as is Quinby (talk) 09:06, 28 February 2024 (UTC)[reply]

[1] For example, ADN on 1%, Others on 4%

[a]