User:D0li0/Future Energy Useage Scenarios
Well what do you know, https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-3 aligns pretty well with what I penned here back in 2005.
Future_energy_usage_scenarios[edit]
First we should frame future energy usage with our current level of energy consumption practices. The majority of humanities energy consumption is in the form on non-renewable Fossil Fuels which are the result of stored solar energy. Unfortunately we currently use them somewhat more rapidly than they are replenished by the natural processes which created them. Ironically enough, we currently further exacerbate this problem by employing the some of the least efficient conversion methods. Namely in the form of various types of thermo-dynamic conversion devices, very few of which employ co-generation practices which use the majority of the output energy which is in the form of heat, usually considered waste heat. So we currently waste the vast majority of our consumed energy.
Nuclear power while an order of magnitude greater in its potential energy density than FF is still a finite resource in terms of its availably here on earth. It's also still a fairly misunderstood technology by the masses and has gained more acceptance somehow in the form of weapons, rather than for power generation. Our current level of Nuclear technology used the radioactive decay or breaking down of heavy atoms which were created in the heart of some nearby supernova. We do not currently posses the ability to use the other form of nuclear energy, fission, which is the process of combining smaller atoms together into larger ones. Luckily enough this form of nuclear power already exists naturally in the form of our sun.
The Earth's Energy Budget (from the sun) yields numerous forms of Very Direct Solar Resources (VDSR). Some of which we already use on a small scale, these are (in order of directness) Solar Light/Heat via Photo Voltaic or Solar Heat Engines or simply Heat, Wind resources from horizontal or vertical wind generators, and Hydro from various types of hydroelectric generation. GeoThermal and Tidal although not technically Sun based may also be considered long term sustainable resources and are the result of other natural solar system properties such as Gravity and Radioactive decay.
Less direct Solar resources include Bio-Fuels of various forms which are unfortunately limited to the poor effeciency of photosynthesis and require dedicated agriculture whose primary propose is to create Hydro-Carbon fuels. (I believe) Bio-Mass while similar instead uses what might otherwise be considered waste products from other aspects of society and should be considered highly beneficial for bringing into ballance our waste production. Again FF are also the result of solar energy however so far removed by time and conversion losses to be considered a whole other form, a very precious form of stored energy, similar to the precious nature of heavy atoms used for nuclear fuel.
Another important feature of VDSR is their relatively even global distribution, such that they are directly available to individual households, businesses, and industry. Usually with enough energy density to satisfy the needs of such entities, especially if multiple forms are tapped into. But thus far we've only been reviewing energy collection and generation but not usage, so let's get on with it...
Which brings us to one possible future energy _usage_ scenario. Luckily for us the (semi-)direct output of most sustainable resources is electricity which is very versatile. Most homes, business, and industry already use electricity and convert it back into useful work with relatively high levels of efficiency.
By simply converting our transportation technologies from direct thermo-dynamic devices (ICE) to electricity storage and conversion devices we can reduce their energy requirements by 1/2 to 1/4 their current level of consumption. Since this is the sector in which most of our energy resources is consumed such gains represent the bulk of our energy consumption. This should be one of our first priorities as co-generation is impractical to implement in vehicles and as such there is little chance of somehow using their primary output, waste heat. Another important transition is from FF based electricity generation to a diverse set of primarily sustainable resources. A recent study suggests that 20% of available land based wind resources of level 3 (useful) and higher would satisfy all global energy needs, which doesn't take into consideration efficiency gains from transitioning from ICE to Electric transportation.