User:Joe Bfsplk/sandbox/Long term future trends

Long-term future trends

Main article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth

A long-term population decline is typically caused by sub-replacement fertility, coupled with a net immigration rate that fails to compensate for the excess of deaths over births. A long-term decline is accompanied by population aging, created by an increase in the ratio of retirees to workers and children. When a sub-replacement fertility rate remains constant, population decline accelerates over the long term.

Because of the global decline in the fertility rate, projections of future global population show the possibility of long-term decline.

For example, the 2019 forecast from the UN’s Population Division shows that world population growth peaked at 2.1% in 1962, has since dropped precipitously, and could drop even further to 0.1% by 2100, a growth rate not seen since pre-industrial revolution days. ¹

1. United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects 2019, Population Growth Rate file, Median Variant tab

https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/

https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth

median variant projection

Note: upload this to wikimidea.  It is 2019 version

Based on this, the UN Population Division expects world population to level out at or soon after the end of the 21^st Century (the median line), but also that there is a chance (seen in the 80% prediction interval line) that it could peak earlier, around 2070-80, and then start a slow decline.

https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/900

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The table below breaks out the UN’s predictions by region.¹

                                                      2015-20              2060-65      2095-2100          

Africa                                                2.51            1.36            0.61

Asia                                                  0.92            -0.12          -0.39

Europe                                             0.12            -0.34          -0.14

Latin America & the Caribbean      0.94            -0.07          -0.46

Northern America                            0.65            0.34            0.25

Oceania                                           1.37            0.63            0.37

World                                                1.09            0.33            0.04

The UN predicts long-term decline of global population growth rates, however, short term baby booms, and healthcare improvements, among other factors, created can cause flip-flops reversals of trends. Population decline trends in Russia (1995-2010), Ireland (1950-1960), and Germany (1975-1985) have seen long term reversals.¹  in places such as Russia, Germany, Ireland, and the UK, the latter two seeing declines as early as the 1970s, yet The UK, having seen almost zero growth during the period 1975-1985, is now (2015-2020) growing at 0.6% per year.¹ now (2013) is growing more rapidly than any year since it first tipped into declines.

In spite of more recent declines, it is very uncommon for population to dip under the levels shortly after World War II. Bulgaria and Latvia are the only nations with a net population decline since 1950, and half of all nations worldwide have more than quadrupled their populations. UAE's current population is over 120 times that of 1950, and Qatar's population has grown over 80 times the 1950s level.

2. United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects 2019, Population Growth Rate file, Estimates tab

https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/

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