User:Kahlores/Sandbox/Israel, election for the 21st Knesset, scenarios separate
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Scenario polls separate[edit]
Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest figure in each survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then both figures are shaded. Parties that fall below the threshold are denoted by the percentage of votes that they received (N%) instead of the seats they would have gotten. When a poll has no information on a certain party, that party is instead marked by a dash (–).
- Legend
- Gov. — sum of government parties, namely: Likud–Kulanu, Shas, United Torah Judaism (UTJ), United Right (UR), and New Right.
- Opp. — sum of all opposition parties, including: Labor, Blue & White, Joint List, Meretz, Gesher, Yisrael Beiteinu and Zehut.
Date | Polling firm | Publisher | Joint List |
Meretz | Labor– Gesher |
IDP | Blue & White |
Yisrael Beiteinu |
Likud– Kulanu |
Zehut | New Right |
United Right |
Shas | UTJ | Opp. | Gov. | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Seats at dissolution | 10 | 4 | 6 | N/A | 35 | 5 | 39 | – | – | 5 | 8 | 8 | 60 | 60 | |||||
19 Jul | Smith Institute | 103fm/Maariv[1] | 10 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 29 | 9 | 32 | – | 6 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 63 | 57 | |||
19 Jul | Direct Polls | Makor Rishon[2] | 11 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 29 | 8 | 32 | – | 5 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 64 | 56 | |||
18 Jul | Labor and Gesher agree to run on a joint list[3] | ||||||||||||||||||
Date | Polling firm | Publisher | Joint List |
Meretz | Labor | Gesher | IDP | Blue & White |
Yisrael Beiteinu |
Likud– Kulanu |
Zehut | New Right |
United Right |
Shas | UTJ | Opp. | Gov. | ||
17 Jul | Dialog | Arutz Sheva[4] | 11 | 7 | 8 | – | 4 | 28 | 8 | 31 | (1.0%) | 4 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 66 | 54 | ||
16 Jul | Midgam | Channel 12[5] | 11 | 4 | 6 | – | 4 | 30 | 10 | 31 | (1.7%) | 5 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 65 | 55 | ||
12 Jul | Smith Institute | 103fm/Maariv[6] | 10 | 5 | 5 | – | 4 | 30 | 8 | 33 | – | 6 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 62 | 58 | ||
11 Jul | Midgam | Walla![7] | 11 | 5 | 6 | – | 4 | 30 | 9 | 30 | (2.7%) | 5 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 65 | 55 | ||
9 Jul | The Jewish Home and Tkuma agree on a joint run[8] | ||||||||||||||||||
4 Jul | Maagar Mohot | Israel Hayom[9] | 9 | 6 | 8 | – | 4 | 30 | 7 | 31 | (1.0%) | 4 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 64 | 56 | ||
3 Jul | Midgam | Channel 12[10] | 12 | 4 | 8 | – | (3.0%) | 31 | 9 | 32 | (2.1%) | 5 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 64 | 56 | ||
3 Jul | Statnet | Channel 13[10] | 9 | 4 | 7 | – | 6 | 29 | 8 | 31 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 63 | 57 | ||
2 Jul | Labor elects Amir Peretz as its leader[11] | ||||||||||||||||||
27 Jun | Meretz elects Nitzan Horowitz as its leader[12] | ||||||||||||||||||
26 Jun | Panel Project HaMidgam | Channel 13[13] | 12 | 6 | 5 | – | 6 | 32 | 7 | 32 | – | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 68 | 52 | ||
26 Jun | Former PM Ehud Barak announces the founding of a new party[14] | ||||||||||||||||||
25 Jun | Otzma Yehudit leaves the United Right[15] | ||||||||||||||||||
20 Jun | Hadash–Ta'al and Ra'am–Balad agree to re-establish the Joint List[16] | ||||||||||||||||||
Date | Polling firm | Publisher | Hadash –Ta'al |
Ra'am –Balad |
Meretz | Labor | Gesher | Blue & White |
Yisrael Beiteinu |
Likud– Kulanu |
Zehut | New Right |
United Right |
Shas | UTJ | Opp. | Gov. | ||
Seats at dissolution | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | – | 35 | 5 | 39 | – | – | 5 | 8 | 8 | 60 | 60 | ||||
20 Jun | Maagar Mohot | 103fm[17] | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | – | 33 | 8 | 34 | – | 4 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 60 | 60 | ||
14 Jun | Maagar Mohot | 103fm[18] | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | – | 33 | 8 | 35 | – | 5 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 60 | 60 | ||
7 Jun | Panels Politics | Maariv[19] | 7 | – | 4 | 4 | – | 33 | 7 | 37 | – | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 56 | 64 | ||
2 Jun | Maagar Mohot | Israel Hayom[20] | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | – | 34 | 8 | 36 | (2.0%) | 5 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 61 | 59 | ||
30 May | Panels Politics | Maariv[21] | 5 | 4 | 6 | (1.9%) | – | 33 | 9 | 37 | (1.4%) | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 57 | 63 | ||
30 May | Panel Project HaMidgam | Reshet 13[22] | 7 | 4 | 6 | 4 | – | 33 | 9 | 36 | – | – | 7 | 7 | 7 | 63 | 57 | ||
30 May | NAKTAR | Kan 11[23] | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | (2.2%) | 34 | 8 | 35 | (3.1%) | 4 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 62 | 58 | ||
30 May | The 21st Knesset is dissolved[24] | ||||||||||||||||||
28 May | Kulanu and Likud agree to run on a joint list[25] | ||||||||||||||||||
Date | Polling firm | Publisher | Hadash –Ta'al |
Ra'am –Balad |
Meretz | Labor | Gesher | Blue & White |
Yisrael Beiteinu |
Kulanu | Likud | Zehut | New Right |
United Right |
Shas | UTJ | Opp. | Gov. | |
28 May | Direct Polls[26] | Makor Rishon | 7 | (2.30%) | 5 | 7 | (0.96%) | 33 | 9 | (1.67%) | 34 | (1.44%) | 5 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 61 | 59 | |
26 May | Panels Politics[27] | Maariv | 7 | – | 5 | 6 | – | 34 | 6 | – | 35 | – | 5 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 58 | 62 | |
9 Apr | Election results[28] | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | (1.73%) | 35 | 5 | 4 | 35 | (2.74%) | (3.22%) | 5 | 8 | 8 | 60 | 60 |
Scenarios[edit]
- Expanded Union of Right Wing Parties (headed by Shaked)
Date | Polling firm | Publisher | Joint List |
Meretz | Labor | IDP | Gesher | Blue & White |
Yisrael Beiteinu |
Likud– Kulanu |
United Right+ New Right+ Zehut+ Otzma Yehudit |
Shas | UTJ | Opp. | Gov. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
18 Jul | Dialog | Arutz Sheva[29] | 10 | 7 | 7 | 4 | – | 28 | 8 | 31 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 64 | 56 |
16 July | Midgam | Channel 12[5] | 11 | 4 | 6 | 4 | – | 30 | 10 | 28 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 65 | 55 |
- Expanded Union of Right Wing Parties
Date | Polling firm | Publisher | Joint List |
Meretz | Labor | Gesher | IDP | Blue & White |
Yisrael Beiteinu |
Likud– Kulanu |
United Right+ New Right+ Zehut+ Otzma Yehudit |
Shas | UTJ | Opp. | Gov. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
18 Jul | Dialog | Arutz Sheva[29] | 11 | 7 | 7 | 4 | – | 29 | 8 | 32 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 67 | 53 |
10 July | Kantar Institute | Saloona[30] | 10 | 6 | 7 | – | 5 | 29 | 6 | 28 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 62 | 58 |
4 Jul | Maagar Mochot | Yisrael Hayom[9] | 8 | 7 | 7 | – | 4 | 31 | 6 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 63 | 57 |
- Left Wing Union
Date | Polling firm | Publisher | Joint List |
Labor+ IDP+ Meretz |
Gesher | Blue & White |
Yisrael Beiteinu |
Likud– Kulanu |
Zehut | New Right | United Right | Shas | UTJ | Opp. | Gov. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
16 Jul | Midgam | Channel 12[5] | 11 | 15 | – | 28 | 11 | 31 | – | 5 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 65 | 55 |
4 Jul | Maagar Mochot | Yisrael Hayom[9] | 8 | 19 | – | 26 | 7 | 31 | – | 8 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 60 | 60 |
- Likud+Ayelet Shaked, United Right+Naftali Bennett
Date | Polling firm | Publisher | Hadash –Ta'al |
Ra'am –Balad |
Meretz | Labor | Gesher | Blue & White |
Yisrael Beiteinu |
Likud– Kulanu |
Zehut | United Right |
Shas | UTJ | Opp. | Gov. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
30 May | Panels Politics | Maariv[21] | 4 | 5 | 6 | – | – | 34 | 8 | 41 | – | 7 | 7 | 8 | 57 | 63 |
- Gabi Ashkenazi leading Blue & White
Date | Polling firm | Publisher | Hadash –Ta'al |
Ra'am –Balad |
Meretz | Labor | Gesher | Blue & White |
Yisrael Beiteinu |
Likud– Kulanu |
Zehut | New Right |
United Right |
Shas | UTJ | Opp. | Gov. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
14 Jun | Maagar Mohot | 103fm[18] | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | – | 35 | 8 | 33 | – | 5 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 63 | 57 |
Date | Polling firm | Publisher | Joint List |
Meretz | Labor | Gesher | IDP | Blue & White |
Yisrael Beiteinu |
Likud– Kulanu |
New Right –Zehut |
United Right |
Shas | UTJ | Opp. | Gov. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10 July | Kantar Institute | Saloona[30] | 10 | 6 | 6 | – | 4 | 29 | 8 | 30 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 64 | 56 |
9 July | Kantar Institute | Kan11[31] | 9 | 6 | 7 | – | 5 | 30 | 9 | 30 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 66 | 54 |
Date | Polling firm | Publisher | Joint List |
Labor+ IDP+ Meretz |
Gesher | Blue & White |
Yisrael Beiteinu |
Likud– Kulanu |
New Right –Zehut |
United Right |
Shas | UTJ | Opp. | Gov. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10 July | Kantar Institute | Saloona[30] | 10 | 18 | – | 30 | 7 | 29 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 65 | 55 |
- Labor and Meretz merger without Gesher
Date | Polling firm | Publisher | Joint List |
Labor+ Meretz |
IDP | Gesher | Blue & White |
Yisrael Beiteinu |
Likud | Zehut | New Right | United Right |
Shas | UTJ | Opp. | Gov. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
19 Jul | Smith | 103fm/Maariv[1] | 10 | 13 | 4 | – | 27 | 9 | 32 | – | 6 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 63 | 57 |
- Labor and Meretz merger without Gesher, Expanded Union of Right Wing Parties (headed by Shaked)
Date | Polling firm | Publisher | Joint List |
Meretz | Labor+IDP | Gesher | Blue & White |
Yisrael Beiteinu |
Likud-Kulanu | United Right+ New Right+ Zehut+ Otzma Yehudit |
Shas | UTJ | Opp. | Gov. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
19 Jul | Direct Polls | Makor Rishon[2] | 11 | 5 | 11 | – | 28 | 8 | 30 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 63 | 57 |
- Labor and Meretz merger without Gesher, Expanded Union of Right Wing Parties (headed by Peretz)
Date | Polling firm | Publisher | Joint List |
Meretz | Labor+IDP | Gesher | Blue & White |
Yisrael Beiteinu |
Likud-Kulanu | United Right+ New Right+ Zehut+ Otzma Yehudit |
Shas | UTJ | Opp. | Gov. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
19 Jul | Direct Polls | Makor Rishon[2] | 11 | 5 | 10 | – | 29 | 9 | 33 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 64 | 56 |
References[edit]
- ^ a b "Maariv/103 FM Radio Poll: Likud 32, Blue & White 29, Joint List 10; Scenario Poll: Labor+Meretz 13". Jeremy's Knesset Insider. 19 July 2019. Retrieved 19 July 2019.
- ^ a b c Jeremy Saltan (19 July 2019). "Makor Rishon Poll: Likud 32, Blue & White 29, Joint List 11; Scenario Polls on Shaked vs A.Peretz united right list & Barak vs R.Peretz united left list". Jeremy's Knesset Insider. Retrieved 19 July 2019.
- ^ "Labor's Amir Peretz and Orly Levy-Abekasis announce joint run in election". The Times of Israel. 18 July 2019. Retrieved 18 July 2019.
- ^ Ido Ben Porat (17 July 2019). "Arutz Sheva poll: Likud 31, Blue and White 28". Arutz Sheva. Retrieved 18 July 2019.
- ^ a b c Jeremy Saltan (17 July 2019). "Channel 12 Poll: Likud 31, Blue & White 30, Joint List 11; Scenario Polls: United Left List 15; United Right List led by Shaked 12". Jeremy's Knesset Insider. Retrieved 18 July 2019.
- ^ "Poll: Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu to decide who will form next government". The Jerusalem Post. 12 July 2019. Retrieved 12 July 2019.
- ^ Jeremy Saltan (11 July 2019). "Walla Poll: Likud 30, Blue & White 30, Joint List 11, Yisrael Beitenu 9, UTJ 8, Shas 7". Jeremy's Knesset Insider. Retrieved 11 July 2019.
- ^ Staff writer (9 July 2019). "Peretz, Smotrich agree to joint run". Arutz Sheva. Retrieved 9 July 2019.
- ^ a b c Raoul Wootliff (5 July 2019). "Poll shows separate unions of small right, left wing parties each surging". The Times of Israel.
- ^ a b Staff writer (3 July 2019). "TV surveys show Liberman holds balance of power, as Likud, Blue and White slip". The Times of Israel. Retrieved 3 July 2019.
- ^ "Veteran Labor Lawmaker Amir Peretz Overtakes Young Guard in Party Primary". Haaretz. 2 July 2019. Retrieved 2 July 2019.
- ^ "Nitzan Horowitz wins vote to lead left-wing Meretz party". Times of Israel. 27 June 2019. Retrieved 27 June 2019.
- ^ Staff writer (26 June 2019). "Left-wing bloc, Arab parties get 61 seats". Israel National News. Retrieved 26 June 2019.
- ^ "Ehud Barak returns to the political fray". Globes. 26 June 2019. Retrieved 26 June 2019.
- ^ "Far right faction dismantles partnership with right-wing parties". YNet. 25 June 2019. Retrieved 25 June 2019.
- ^ "Israel's Arab parties reunite for upcoming elections". The Times of Israel. 20 June 2019. Retrieved 20 June 2019.
- ^ Erik Bender (21 June 2019). "סקר: אחרי נתניהו - גדעון סער הוא המועמד המועדף על מצביעי הליכוד". Maariv. Retrieved 21 June 2019.
- ^ a b Staff writer (14 June 2019). "Poll: Right-wing bloc leads with 68 seats". Arutz Sheva. Retrieved 14 June 2019.
- ^ "Right-wing government doesn't need Liberman, poll shows". Arutz Sheva. 7 June 2019. Retrieved 7 June 2019.
- ^ מטי טוכפלד (2 June 2019). "סקר "ישראל היום": 59 מנדטים לגוש הימין בלי ליברמן - איש לא יכול להרכיב ממשלה". Israel Hayom (in Hebrew). Retrieved 2 June 2019.
- ^ a b אריק בנדר (31 May 2019). "סקר מעריב: הליכוד וליברמן מתחזקים, העבודה מתחת לאחוז החסימה". Maariv (in Hebrew). Retrieved 31 May 2019.
- ^ עקיבא נוביק (30 May 2019). "סקר: ליברמן מתחזק ל-9 מנדטים, איחוד של הליכוד וכולנו - 36". Reshet 13 (in Hebrew). Retrieved 31 May 2019.
- ^ מואב ורדי (30 May 2019). "סקר כאן חדשות: ליברמן המרוויח הגדול, כחלון לא מוסיף מנדטים לליכוד". Kan (in Hebrew). Retrieved 31 May 2019.
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
dissolved
was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Marissa Newman (28 May 2019). "Likud okays merger with Kulanu, confirms Netanyahu as PM candidate". The Times of Israel. Retrieved 28 May 2019.
- ^ "Second Post-Election Poll: Likud 34, Blue & White 33, Yisrael Beitenu 9, UTJ 8, 3 tied at 7; Right-Religious Bloc 68". Jeremy's Knesset Insider. 28 May 2019. Retrieved 28 May 2019.
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
jp
was invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ "הסתיימה ספירת הקולות: יהדות התורה עם מנדט שמיני, בנט ושקד בחוץ". Maariv (in Hebrew). 16 April 2019. Retrieved 16 April 2019.
- ^ a b Staff writer (18 July 2019). "Ayelet Shaked would boost United Right, right-wing camp". Arutz Sheva. Retrieved 18 July 2019.
- ^ a b c "סקר: איחוד בין מפלגות הימין מגדיל את כוחן, מצביעי השמאל רוצים ריצה משותפת". Channel 12. 11 July 2019. Retrieved 11 July 2019.
- ^ Staff writer (9 July 2019). "Poll: Likud, Blue and White tied at 30 seats". Arutz Sheva. Retrieved 9 July 2019.