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Expectation

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Expectation according to joint distribution equals single distribution Expectation

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Hence:

Also:

linearity

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hence:

hence:

Variance & Standard deviation

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definitions

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The meaning of standard deviation

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One way to look at standard deviation is as an approximation of the "expected drift" from the expectation. The "expected drift" could be defined as:

This value is probably not easy to manipulate.

Suppose that X can have only the two values and and that . Then:

and

and

, and doesn't change by adding a constant so any random variable that all its drifts are of the same absolute value has .

Whenever the drift values are not the same, averages with bigger weights to bigger values while keep fair plane average. *todo*: show why

Example:Suppose you are performing the following experiment: you flip a coin, if it's head you go 5 meters to the left, if it is tail, you go 5 meters to the right. The variance in this case is 25 and the standard deviation is 5. The expected drift is also 5 (all the drift values are equal). More on that example, see here.

Alternative definition of variance

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hence:

variance (and sd) doesn't change by adding a constant

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variance of multiplication

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hence:

SD of multiplication

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hence:

Variance of sum of random variables

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hence:

When and are independent, and hence:

Independent

When and are i.i.d (identically independent distributed) then:

i.i.d

Or more generally:

i.i.d

hence:

i.i.d


Note the difference from summing the variable with itself (identically distributed but not independent):

and

more on the last result

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We've showed that:

i.i.d

Why is this important?

is a measure for expected drift. The last result shows that the expected drift goes as square root (less than linear) with successive experiments... this means that the mean drift tends to zero:

Recall the example of the random walk +-5. Now, suppose You repeat the process times. What is the expected drift?

The standard deviation, which can be considered as a measure to that drift is:

The mean drift is:

For example, for 10000 iterations, the mean drift is: meter. Instead of 5 meter in each step it is 5 centimeter. The total drift is only 500 instead of 50,000.

  • todo:*...example of random walk +-5 gnuplot picture. the relation to the law of big numbers... the fact that frequent ration converges is an assumption in probability theory or a result?..

misc

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is constant.

hence:

is constant.

Covariance

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Alternative definition

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hence:

A special case is a covariance of two of the same random variable:

Covariance of independent variables

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Assume that and are independent:

And hence:

independent

The contrary is not true, however. For example, if X is a constant random variable then

But of course, X and X are very much dependent.

Wiener processes

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(also known as "Brownian motion")

Let Z be a stochastic process with the following properties: 1. The change in a small period of time is

where:

Summary

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Expectation

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Variance and standard deviation

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  • Independent
  • i.i.d
  • i.i.d

Covariance

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Misc

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int main() {
  cout << "hello lord\n";
}

Determinant is the area of the Parallelogram

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Let and be two vectors in . We will show that the determinant is equal to the area of the Parallelogram.

short way

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let be a vector orthogonal to and of norm equal to 1:

(a word about left/right systems? why we didn't choose  ?)

Let be the area of the Parallelogram:

longer way

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Let be the vector that resembles the height of the Parallelogram:

Let be the area of the Parallelogram:


(-1)*(-1) =?= 1

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