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Hypothetical voting intention under different Conservative leaders

[edit]

In the run up to, and during, the 2022 Conservative Party leadership election, pollsters conducted multiple polls evaluating voting intention under certain potential candidates for leader of the Conservative Party.

Date(s)
conducted
Pollster/client Sample size Voting intention dependent on Conservative leader
Sunak as leader Truss as leader Mordaunt as leader
Con Lab Lib Dem Others Lead Con Lab Lib Dem Others Lead Con Lab Lib Dem Others Lead
18 - 19 July 2022 FindOutNow/
Electoral Calculus
1,261 25% 37% 15% 14%[a] 12% 25% 37% 16% 12%[b] 12% 27% 36% 15% 12%[c] 9%
Leadership contest begins.
14 - 16 January 2022 Yonder 2,075 36% 40% 9% 16%[d] 4% - - - - - - - - - -
15 - 22 December 2021 Opinium/The Guardian 1,902 34% 37% - - 3% 27% 43% - - 16% - - - - -

Red Wall only

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One pollster conducted a poll garnering hypothetical voting intentions in Red Wall seats.[a]

Date(s)
conducted
Pollster/client Sample size Conservative and Labour Party voting intention dependent on Conservative leader
Johnson as leader Sunak as leader Truss as leader
Con Lab Lead Con Lab Lead Con Lab Lead
19-20 January 2022 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,000 36% 48% 12% 38% 46% 8% 29% 51% 22%

Other potential scenarios were prompted (Gove as leader, Javid as leader, Raab as leader, Hunt as leader, Davis as leader, Patel as leader, and Zahawi as leader), and resulted in Labour leads of at least, and above, 20% in those scenarios. A scenario with Mordaunt as leader was not prompted.

  1. ^ Namely; Ashfield, Barrow and Furness, Bassetlaw, Birmingham Northfield, Bishop Auckland, Blackpool South, Blyth Valley, Bolsover, Bolton North East, Bridgend, Burnley, Bury South, Clwyd South, Darlington, Delyn, Don Valley, Dudley North, Gedling, Great Grimsby, Heywood and Middleton, Hartlepool, Hyndburn, Leigh, Newcastle-Under-Lyme, North West Durham, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Redcar, Rother Valley, Scunthorpe, Sedgefield, Stoke-On-Trent Central, Stoke-On-Trent North, Vale Of Clwyd, Wakefield, West Bromwich East, West Bromwich West, Wolverhampton North East, Workington, Wrexham, and Ynys Môn.

July 2022 - 2

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Hypothetical voting intention under different Conservative leaders

During the 2022 Conservative Party leadership election, polls were conducted evaluating voting intention under certain potential candidates for leader of the Conservative Party.

Date(s)
conducted
Pollster/client Sample size Voting intention dependent on Conservative leader
Sunak as leader Truss as leader Mordaunt as leader
Con Lab Lib Dem Others Lead Con Lab Lib Dem Others Lead Con Lab Lib Dem Others Lead
21 - 23 July 2022 Deltapoll[a] 1,558 29% 41% 12% 18% 12% 31% 41% 11% 17% 10% - - - - -
Penny Mordaunt is eliminated from the leadership contest on the fifth ballot.
18 - 19 July 2022 FindOutNow/
Electoral Calculus
1,261 25% 37% 15% 14%[b] 12% 25% 37% 16% 12%[c] 12% 27% 36% 15% 12%[d] 9%

...

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Hypothetical dependent on Conservative leader

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Date(s)
conducted
Pollster/client Sample size Conservative and Labour Party voting intention
Standard voting intention question Johnson as leader Sunak as leader Truss as leader Gove as leader
Con Lab Con Lab Con Lab Con Lab Con Lab
15 - 22 December 2021 Opinium/The Guardian 1,902 32% 39% 29% 41% 34% 37% 27% 43% 23% 41%
Lab +7 Lab +12 Lab +3 Lab +16 Lab +18

Original redesigned based on feedback

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted
Pollster/client Sample size Conservative and Labour Party voting intention dependent on Conservative leader
No specific leader Johnson as leader Sunak as leader Truss as leader Gove as leader
Con Lab Lead Con Lab Lead Con Lab Lead Con Lab Lead Con Lab Lead
14 - 16 January 2022 Yonder 2,075 Not released[e] 36% 40%[f] 4% - - - - - -
15 - 22 December 2021 Opinium/The Guardian 1,902 32% 39% 7% 29% 41% 12% 34% 37% 3% 27% 43% 16% 23% 41% 18%
  1. ^ Standard VI broke down: 31%/42%/10%/17% (worth including or not?)
  2. ^ 4% for Reform, 10% for Greens
  3. ^ 3% for Reform, 9% for Greens
  4. ^ 3% for Reform, 9% for Greens
  5. ^ Voting intention under Boris Johnson remaining as leader was conducted, but figures were not stated in the article; "the numbers for Boris were on the floor" was the only comment made in that regard.
  6. ^ Also polled other parties; Liberal Democrats on 9%, SNP on 5% and Others on 11%
'Red Wall' only
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Date(s)
conducted
Pollster/client Sample size Conservative and Labour Party voting intention dependent on Conservative leader
No specific leader Johnson as leader Sunak as leader Truss as leader Gove as leader Javid as leader Raab as leader Hunt as leader Davis as leader Patel as leader Zahawi as leader
Con Lab Lead Con Lab Lead Con Lab Lead Con Lab Lead Con Lab Lead Con Lab Lead Con Lab Lead Con Lab Lead Con Lab Lead Con Lab Lead Con Lab Lead
19-20 January 2022 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,000 36% 48% 12% 38% 46% 8% 29% 51% 22% 27% 52% 25% 31% 51% 20% 30% 51% 21% 27% 50% 23% 27% 51% 24% 26% 52% 26% 26% 53% 27%

Design 2

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Date(s)
conducted
Pollster/client Sample size Conservative and Labour Party voting intention
Leader candidate Con Lab Lead
15 - 22 December 2021 Opinium/The Guardian 1,902 None prompted 32% 39% Lab +7
Johnson as leader 29% 41% Lab +12
Sunak as leader 34% 37% Lab +3
Truss as leader 27% 43% Lab +16
Gove as leader 23% 41% Lab +18

Potential third design

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Bit like old seat prediction tables, as in the 2017 opinion polling article. With example of how further potential polling could fit in.

15 - 22 December 2021
Opinium/The Guardian
1,902 UK adults
xxxxx 2022
Opinium
xxx UK adults
xxxxx 2022
Opinium
xxx UK adults
Leader candidate Con Lab Lead Con Lab Lead Con Lab Lead
None prompted 32% 39% Lab +7 xx% xx% Lab +xx xx% xx% Lab +xx
Johnson as leader 29% 41% Lab +12 xx% xx% Lab +xx xx% xx% Lab +xx
Sunak as leader 34% 37% Lab +3 xx% xx% Lab +xx xx% xx% Lab +xx
Truss as leader 27% 43% Lab +16 xx% xx% Lab +xx xx% xx% Lab +xx
Gove as leader 23% 41% Lab +18 xx% xx% Lab +xx xx% xx% Lab +xx

July 2022

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Voting intention under each candidate

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A poll was also conducted to garner the prospective voting intentions of the public for the various political parties under each leadership candidate in a general election.

Date(s)
conducted
Pollster/client Sample size Voting intention under each candidate
Rishi Sunak Penny Mordaunt Liz Truss
Con Lab Lib Dem Others Lead Con Lab Lib Dem Others Lead Con Lab Lib Dem Others Lead
18-19 July 2022 Electoral Calculus 1,261 25% 37% 15% 14% 12% 27% 36% 15% 12% 9% 25% 37% 16% 12% 12%

Alt

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted
Pollster/client Sample size Voting intention dependent on Conservative leader
Sunak as leader Truss as leader Mordaunt as leader
Con Lab Lib Dem Others Lead Con Lab Lib Dem Others Lead Con Lab Lib Dem Others Lead
18 - 19 July 2022 Electoral Calculus 1,261 25% 37% 15% 14%[a] 12% 25% 37% 16% 12%[b] 12% 27% 36% 15% 12%[c] 9%
13 July 2022 Leadership contest begins.
14 - 16 January 2022 Yonder 2,075 36% 40% 9% 16%[d] 4% - - - - - - - - - -
15 - 22 December 2021 Opinium/The Guardian 1,902 34% 37% - - 3% 27% 43% - - 16% - - - - -
  1. ^ 4% for Reform, 10% for Greens
  2. ^ 3% for Reform, 9% for Greens
  3. ^ 3% for Reform, 9% for Greens
  4. ^ 5% for SNP, 11% for Others