User:Smallbones/Quality4by4
How does article quality change over time? Do articles in different topic categories increase in quality at different rates? Has the rate of quality increase changed over time? Are new articles getting better each year? This investigation proposes to examine these questions by following groups of random articles in 4 topic categories with 5 articles in each category for each of 5 years.
More specifically, using the random article data set from User:Smallbones/1000 random, I look at 4 categories of articles:
- Biography
- Geography
- Culture & Arts
- Other (any other category)
with 5 articles chosen in each category in each year (using the first randomly selected in each year-category) for articles started in
- 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011
- recording the modified ORES score as a measure of quality (sub-stubs or level 1 assigned where p of being a stub > .70 according to the ORES output, level 2 for an ORES prediction of "stub", level 3 for an ORES prediction of "start", etc. )
- comparing the entire sample of 80 series aligned as 1st year, 2nd year, 3rd year and 4th year will show how quality, on average, changes for the first 4 years of an article's life.
Dividing this data into the 4 topic category groups should show whether topics categories affect how quality changed.
Realigning the data into the 20 articles started in 2008, the 20 started in 2009, etc. should show where the rate of quality change has itself changed over time, for articles of the same age. In particular, we'll be able to see whether new created articles are increasing in quality each year.
Results
[edit]Overall article quality, as measured by the mORES scores, goes up on average 0.05 points each year from the end of an article's year of creation to the end of its fifth year. For each of the four article categories examined, over four years the average mORES score increases. The mORES score increases in eight of the possible 16 year*category combinations and decreases in only 2. While the scores increase fairly consistently each year, the size of the increase is small. A 0.05 annual increase translates to the increase by a single point (e.g. from stub to start) over 20 years.
Geographic articles have a much lower starting score on average, but the other three categories start at about the same level. The total average increase in scores is highest for the category Culture & Arts (0.35) and lowest for Biographies (0.10), with the other categories increasing 0.15.
| Category | First Year | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biographies | 2.300 | 2.250 | 2.400 | 2.400 | 2.400 |
| Culture & Arts | 2.350 | 2.350 | 2.550 | 2.650 | 2.700 |
| Geography | 1.650 | 1.750 | 1.750 | 1.850 | 1.800 |
| Other | 2.300 | 2.400 | 2.450 | 2.450 | 2.450 |
| All | 2.150 | 2.188 | 2.288 | 2.338 | 2.338 |
When examined by the calendar year, articles for each calendar year on average increase in score over four years. In only 1 of the 16 possible calendar year*starting year combinations does an average score decrease, and the average score increases 9 times.
The scores for each year's newly created articles are much larger for the later 2 years, but the change is not uniformly positive. The average scores for newly created articles in 2011 (2.35) is 0.40 higher than the average score for newly created articles in 2008 (1.95), or an annual average increase of 0.13. While this tendency of the score to increase for newly created articles is not as consistent as for annual increases in previously created articles, it is more than twice the average size (0.13 to 0.05).
| Articles started in |
2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 1.950 | 2.050 | 2.200 | 2.250 | 2.250 | |||
| 2009 | 1.800 | 1.800 | 2.050 | 2.100 | 2.050 | |||
| 2010 | 2.500 | 2.500 | 2.500 | 2.550 | 2.550 | |||
| 2011 | 2.350 | 2.400 | 2.400 | 2.450 | 2.500 |
Looking at mORES score increases across articles sorted by page views shows that mORES score increase for all page view quartiles over 4 years. Average scores increase for 13 of the possible 16 quartile*year combinations, and decrease in only 2. The higher the page views, on average, the higher to scores increase. The lowest page view quartile average score increase by only 0.08 over four years, the 2nd quartile by 0.27, the 3rd by 0.32, and the highest by 0.20.
| Page view quartile | Page Views (range) | N | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st (lowest) | 20-49 | 20 | 1.703 | 1.730 | 1.757 | 1.784 | 1.784 |
| 2nd | 50-85 | 20 | 2.545 | 2.727 | 2.727 | 2.909 | 2.818 |
| 3rd | 87-199 | 20 | 2.136 | 2.182 | 2.364 | 2.409 | 2.455 |
| 4th (highest) | 203-9170 | 20 | 3.400 | 3.300 | 3.600 | 3.600 | 3.600 |
| All | 332 (average) | 80 | 2.150 | 2.188 | 2.288 | 2.338 | 2.338 |
Summary
[edit]Quality as measured by mORES for previously created Wikipedia articles increases slowly, on average increasing only at a rate of 1 point (e.g. from stub to start) per 20 years. The tendency to increase is consistent however and holds for
- articles in different categories
- articles started in different years, and
- articles in all page view quartiles.
The tendency for the quality of newly created articles to be better than the quality of the previous year's newly created articles is less consistent, but more than twice as large as the tendency for previously created articles to increase.
See also
[edit]- User:Smallbones/Article quality prelim
- User:Smallbones/1000 random results
- User:Smallbones/vital articles
Data
[edit]| # | Article | subject | start date | year | Page views NOV 2015 | Notes to self | mORES yr1 | yr2 | yr3 | yr4 | yr5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Zhang Taofang | bio | 14 July | 2008 | 2241 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 47 | Scott Burns (newspaper columnist) | bio | 10 February | 2008 | 414 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 123 | Laura Kraut | bio | 18 August | 2008 | 286 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 181 | Ioan Pop | bio | 3 November | 2008 | 124 | was a redirect until 2011. Replace | |||||
| 234 | Anup Ghoshal | bio | 8 December | 2008 | 570 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 239 | Thomas Blanchet | bio | 25 November | 2008 | 92 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 51 | Ricardo Medina | bio | 26 June | 2009 | 101 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 237 | Lincoln Holroyd | bio | 3 December | 2009 | 55 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 252 | David Hamilton (bishop) | bio | 23 September | 2009 | 48 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 269 | Dominic Douglas | bio | 7 September | 2009 | 59 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 280 | Raja Khishtasub Khan | bio | 23 March | 2009 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 31 | Philipp Andreas Nemnich | bio | 29 January | 2010 | 59 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 67 | Ettore Gandini | bio | 17 June | 2010 | 57 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 77 | Bobby Parker (footballer, born 1952) | bio | 27 May | 2010 | 102 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| 130 | José Antonio Noriega | bio | 20 March | 2010 | 220 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 169 | Maria Lähteenmäki | bio | 2 November | 2010 | 50 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 18 | Joseph Ginat | bio | 11 February | 2011 | 83 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |
| 44 | Empress Xia (Ming dynasty) | bio | 27 October | 2011 | 80 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 45 | José del Castillo (footballer) | bio | 3 October | 2011 | 80 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 60 | Adam Lam | bio | 9 June | 2011 | 81 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 112 | Undule Mwakasungula | bio | 3 September | 2011 | 56 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 37 | Mirat ul Memalik | CA | 25 April | 2008 | 211 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| 110 | The GrooveGrass Boyz | CA | 22 August | 2008 | 111 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 243 | XV (album) | CA | 21 May | 2008 | 431 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 328 | Vendetta... sarda | CA | 1 August | 2008 | 59 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 594 | Castle of Terror | CA | 4 September | 2008 | 174 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| 287 | Minchina Ota (1980 film) | CA | 11 October | 2009 | 617 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 327 | The Dog (film) | CA | 11 March | 2009 | 113 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 361 | Windrush (TV series) | CA, | 24 January | 2009 | 165 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 377 | Minuscule 514 | CA | 15 December | 2009 | 25 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |
| 660 | Ialemus | CA | 6 September | 2009 | 250 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | Fire: The Jimi Hendrix Collection | CA | 7 June | 2010 | 367 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| 195 | Canada's Worst Handyman 5 | CA | 17 April | 2010 | 139 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |
| 208 | The Burning Land | CA | 10 January | 2010 | 9170 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |
| 373 | Still Falling in Love | CA | 24 November | 2010 | 65 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 422 | We Got Hood Love | CA | 6 April | 2010 | 199 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 152 | Lithuanian National Symphony Orchestra | CA | 2 February | 2011 | 180 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| 227 | A Mulher Invisível | CA, | 15 June | 2011 | 238 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 389 | Fresh Aire Interludes | CA | 6 December | 2011 | 137 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 511 | Music of Nier | CA | 10 July | 2011 | 3112 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | |
| 525 | Laurence Olivier Award for Outstanding Achievement in a Musical | CA | 26 August | 2011 | 85 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| 9 | Jawornik, Sanok County | GEO, E | 9 October | 2008 | 49 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 25 | Gmina Zakroczym | GEO, E | 2 January | 2008 | 61 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| 26 | Tadaoka Station | GEO, E | 19 June | 2008 | 61 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 78 | Shire of Upper Murray | GEO, E | 5 March | 2008 | 41 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 80 | Kukowo, Podlaskie Voivodeship | GEO, E | 29 July | 2008 | 38 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 19 | Lichnowo | GEO, E | 7 January | 2009 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 85 | Ajjanahalli, Arsikere | GEO, E | 30 April | 2009 | 49 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 105 | Altônia | GEO, W | 25 December | 2009 | 84 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| 139 | Periyavalayam | GEO, E | 15 August | 2009 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 219 | Salehabad, Ilam | GEO, E | 27 December | 2009 | 56 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 32 | Willow Creek (Columbia River) | GEO, W | 15 September | 2010 | 87 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | |
| 163 | Novi Pot | GEO, E | 19 March | 2010 | 29 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 283 | Žač | GEO, E | 22 May | 2010 | 42 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| 432 | Cercina | GEO, E | 4 May | 2010 | 77 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 447 | Dola, Bileća | GEO, E | 25 June | 2010 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 10 | Nové Mlýny reservoirs | GEO, E | 4 January | 2011 | 124 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 72 | White Run (Rock Creek) | GEO, W | 5 December | 2011 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 96 | Hehekou Township | GEO, E | 18 August | 2011 | 39 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 148 | Zabojnica | GEO, E | 24 September | 2011 | 44 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 157 | Sultans Trail | GEO, E | 31 May | 2011 | 315 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 58 | New Zealand International Science Festival | SCI | 7 June | 2008 | 44 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| 75 | WHBB | BUS | 19 January | 2008 | 141 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 92 | Solar charger | SCI | 8 June | 2008 | 2438 | redirect until 2009. Replace | |||||
| 111 | Acilius (genus) | BHM | 28 April | 2008 | 99 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 116 | Bolandra californica | BHM | 11 December | 2008 | 47 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 143 | Sambucus gaudichaudiana | BHM | 15 July | 2008 | 157 | replaces 92 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 43 | Wings Financial Credit Union | BUS | 13 July | 2009 | 341 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 109 | Savore Sanguino | SOC | 17 May | 2009 | 141 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 179 | Regional Elite Airline Services | BUS | 11 February | 2009 | 259 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 230 | Beth Israel Synagogue (Norwalk, Connecticut) | HIST | 23 February | 2009 | 90 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 273 | 2007 Munster Senior Hurling Championship Final | SOC | 11 July | 2009 | 76 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 71 | Iglesia de Santa María del Conceyu (Llanes) | SOC | 1 June | 2010 | 36 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 115 | Andamia tetradactylus | BHM | 21 May | 2010 | 46 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 124 | Mesa Grande Band of Diegueno Mission Indians | SOC | 27 May | 2010 | 203 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 158 | Great Comet of 1823 | SCI | 19 December | 2010 | 329 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| 166 | Apparel industry of Sri Lanka | BUS | 13 June | 2010 | 1823 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |
| 8 | Coleophora impercepta | BHM | 15 June | 2011 | 29 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 202 | 2011 Conference USA football season | SOC | 4 August | 2011 | 111 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |
| 254 | 2011–12 NCAA Division I women's basketball rankings | SOC | 31 October | 2011 | 60 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| 292 | North American Lacrosse League | SOC | 8 July | 2011 | 193 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |
| 348 | Myotis escalerai | BHM | 12 February | 2011 | 431 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |