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User:Smallbones/Quality4by4

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How does article quality change over time? Do articles in different topic categories increase in quality at different rates? Has the rate of quality increase changed over time? Are new articles getting better each year? This investigation proposes to examine these questions by following groups of random articles in 4 topic categories with 5 articles in each category for each of 5 years.

More specifically, using the random article data set from User:Smallbones/1000 random, I look at 4 categories of articles:

  • Biography
  • Geography
  • Culture & Arts
  • Other (any other category)

with 5 articles chosen in each category in each year (using the first randomly selected in each year-category) for articles started in

  • 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011
  • recording the modified ORES score as a measure of quality (sub-stubs or level 1 assigned where p of being a stub > .70 according to the ORES output, level 2 for an ORES prediction of "stub", level 3 for an ORES prediction of "start", etc. )
  • comparing the entire sample of 80 series aligned as 1st year, 2nd year, 3rd year and 4th year will show how quality, on average, changes for the first 4 years of an article's life.

Dividing this data into the 4 topic category groups should show whether topics categories affect how quality changed.

Realigning the data into the 20 articles started in 2008, the 20 started in 2009, etc. should show where the rate of quality change has itself changed over time, for articles of the same age. In particular, we'll be able to see whether new created articles are increasing in quality each year.

Results

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Overall article quality, as measured by the mORES scores, goes up on average 0.05 points each year from the end of an article's year of creation to the end of its fifth year. For each of the four article categories examined, over four years the average mORES score increases. The mORES score increases in eight of the possible 16 year*category combinations and decreases in only 2. While the scores increase fairly consistently each year, the size of the increase is small. A 0.05 annual increase translates to the increase by a single point (e.g. from stub to start) over 20 years.

Geographic articles have a much lower starting score on average, but the other three categories start at about the same level. The total average increase in scores is highest for the category Culture & Arts (0.35) and lowest for Biographies (0.10), with the other categories increasing 0.15.

Quality scores by category over article age
Category First Year Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Biographies 2.300 2.250 2.400 2.400 2.400
Culture & Arts 2.350 2.350 2.550 2.650 2.700
Geography 1.650 1.750 1.750 1.850 1.800
Other 2.300 2.400 2.450 2.450 2.450
All 2.150 2.188 2.288 2.338 2.338

When examined by the calendar year, articles for each calendar year on average increase in score over four years. In only 1 of the 16 possible calendar year*starting year combinations does an average score decrease, and the average score increases 9 times.

The scores for each year's newly created articles are much larger for the later 2 years, but the change is not uniformly positive. The average scores for newly created articles in 2011 (2.35) is 0.40 higher than the average score for newly created articles in 2008 (1.95), or an annual average increase of 0.13. While this tendency of the score to increase for newly created articles is not as consistent as for annual increases in previously created articles, it is more than twice the average size (0.13 to 0.05).

Quality scores by starting year over elapsed time
Articles
started in
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2008 1.950 2.050 2.200 2.250 2.250
2009 1.800 1.800 2.050 2.100 2.050
2010 2.500 2.500 2.500 2.550 2.550
2011 2.350 2.400 2.400 2.450 2.500

Looking at mORES score increases across articles sorted by page views shows that mORES score increase for all page view quartiles over 4 years. Average scores increase for 13 of the possible 16 quartile*year combinations, and decrease in only 2. The higher the page views, on average, the higher to scores increase. The lowest page view quartile average score increase by only 0.08 over four years, the 2nd quartile by 0.27, the 3rd by 0.32, and the highest by 0.20.

Quality scores by page view quartiles over article age
Page view quartile Page Views (range) N Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
1st (lowest) 20-49 20 1.703 1.730 1.757 1.784 1.784
2nd 50-85 20 2.545 2.727 2.727 2.909 2.818
3rd 87-199 20 2.136 2.182 2.364 2.409 2.455
4th (highest) 203-9170 20 3.400 3.300 3.600 3.600 3.600
All 332 (average) 80 2.150 2.188 2.288 2.338 2.338

Summary

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Quality as measured by mORES for previously created Wikipedia articles increases slowly, on average increasing only at a rate of 1 point (e.g. from stub to start) per 20 years. The tendency to increase is consistent however and holds for

  • articles in different categories
  • articles started in different years, and
  • articles in all page view quartiles.

The tendency for the quality of newly created articles to be better than the quality of the previous year's newly created articles is less consistent, but more than twice as large as the tendency for previously created articles to increase.

See also

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Data

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# Article subject start date year Page views NOV 2015 Notes to self mORES yr1 yr2 yr3 yr4 yr5
7 Zhang Taofang bio 14 July 2008‎ 2241 3 2 3 3 3
47 Scott Burns (newspaper columnist) bio 10 February 2008‎ 414 3 3 3 3 3
123 Laura Kraut bio 18 August 2008‎ 286 1 1 3 3 3
181 Ioan Pop bio 3 November 2008‎ 124 was a redirect until 2011. Replace
234 Anup Ghoshal bio 8 December 2008‎ 570 3 3 3 3 3
239 Thomas Blanchet bio 25 November 2008‎ 92 1 1 1 1 1
51 Ricardo Medina bio 26 June 2009‎ 101 3 3 3 3 3
237 Lincoln Holroyd bio 3 December 2009‎ 55 5 3 3 3 3
252 David Hamilton (bishop) bio 23 September 2009‎ 48 1 1 1 1 1
269 Dominic Douglas bio 7 September 2009‎ 59 2 3 3 3 3
280 Raja Khishtasub Khan bio 23 March 2009‎ 20 1 1 1 1 1
31 Philipp Andreas Nemnich bio 29 January 2010‎ 59 3 3 3 3 3
67 Ettore Gandini bio 17 June 2010‎ 57 3 3 3 3 3
77 Bobby Parker (footballer, born 1952) bio 27 May 2010‎ 102 1 2 2 2 2
130 José Antonio Noriega bio 20 March 2010‎ 220 3 3 3 3 3
169 Maria Lähteenmäki bio 2 November 2010‎ 50 3 3 3 3 3
18 Joseph Ginat bio 11 February 2011‎ 83 4 4 4 4 4
44 Empress Xia (Ming dynasty) bio 27 October 2011‎ 80 1 1 1 1 1
45 José del Castillo (footballer) bio 3 October 2011‎ 80 1 1 1 1 1
60 Adam Lam bio 9 June 2011‎ 81 1 1 1 1 1
112 Undule Mwakasungula bio 3 September 2011‎ 56 3 3 3 3 3
37 Mirat ul Memalik CA 25 April 2008‎ 211 2 2 2 3 3
110 The GrooveGrass Boyz CA 22 August 2008‎ 111 3 3 3 3 3
243 XV (album) CA 21 May 2008‎ 431 3 3 3 3 3
328 Vendetta... sarda CA 1 August 2008‎ 59 1 1 1 1 1
594 Castle of Terror CA 4 September 2008‎ 174 1 2 2 2 2
287 Minchina Ota (1980 film) CA 11 October 2009‎ 617 1 1 3 3 3
327 The Dog (film) CA 11 March 2009‎ 113 1 1 1 1 1
361 Windrush (TV series) CA, 24 January 2009‎ 165 2 2 3 3 3
377 Minuscule 514 CA 15 December 2009‎ 25 3 3 4 4 4
660 Ialemus CA 6 September 2009‎ 250 1 1 1 1 1
4 Fire: The Jimi Hendrix Collection CA 7 June 2010‎ 367 2 2 2 2 2
195 Canada's Worst Handyman 5 CA 17 April 2010‎ 139 5 4 4 4 4
208 The Burning Land CA 10 January 2010‎ 9170 4 4 4 4 4
373 Still Falling in Love CA 24 November 2010‎ 65 1 1 1 1 1
422 We Got Hood Love CA 6 April 2010‎ 199 3 3 3 3 3
152 Lithuanian National Symphony Orchestra CA 2 February 2011‎ 180 2 2 2 2 3
227 A Mulher Invisível CA, 15 June 2011‎ 238 3 3 3 3 3
389 Fresh Aire Interludes CA 6 December 2011‎ 137 1 1 1 1 1
511 Music of Nier CA 10 July 2011‎ 3112 6 6 6 6 6
525 Laurence Olivier Award for Outstanding Achievement in a Musical CA 26 August 2011‎ 85 2 2 2 3 3
9 Jawornik, Sanok County GEO, E 9 October 2008‎ 49 3 3 3 3 3
25 Gmina Zakroczym GEO, E 2 January 2008‎ 61 2 2 2 2 2
26 Tadaoka Station GEO, E 19 June 2008‎ 61 1 1 1 1 1
78 Shire of Upper Murray GEO, E 5 March 2008‎ 41 3 3 3 3 3
80 Kukowo, Podlaskie Voivodeship GEO, E 29 July 2008‎ 38 1 3 3 3 3
19 Lichnowo GEO, E 7 January 2009‎ 23 1 1 1 1 1
85 Ajjanahalli, Arsikere GEO, E 30 April 2009‎ 49 1 1 1 1 1
105 Altônia GEO, W 25 December 2009‎ 84 1 1 1 2 1
139 Periyavalayam GEO, E 15 August 2009‎ 32 1 1 1 1 1
219 Salehabad, Ilam GEO, E 27 December 2009‎ 56 1 1 1 1 1
32 Willow Creek (Columbia River) GEO, W 15 September 2010‎ 87 6 6 6 6 6
163 Novi Pot GEO, E 19 March 2010‎ 29 1 1 1 1 1
283 Žač GEO, E 22 May 2010‎ 42 2 2 2 3 3
432 Cercina GEO, E 4 May 2010‎ 77 1 1 1 1 1
447 Dola, Bileća GEO, E 25 June 2010‎ 23 1 1 1 1 1
10 Nové Mlýny reservoirs GEO, E 4 January 2011‎ 124 1 1 1 1 1
72 White Run (Rock Creek) GEO, W 5 December 2011‎ 35 1 1 1 1 1
96 Hehekou Township GEO, E 18 August 2011‎ 39 1 1 1 1 1
148 Zabojnica GEO, E 24 September 2011‎ 44 1 1 1 1 1
157 Sultans Trail GEO, E 31 May 2011‎ 315 3 3 3 3 3
58 New Zealand International Science Festival SCI 7 June 2008‎ 44 2 2 2 2 2
75 WHBB BUS 19 January 2008‎ 141 3 3 3 3 3
92 Solar charger SCI 8 June 2008‎ 2438 redirect until 2009. Replace
111 Acilius (genus) BHM 28 April 2008‎ 99 1 1 1 1 1
116 Bolandra californica BHM 11 December 2008‎ 47 1 1 1 1 1
143 Sambucus gaudichaudiana BHM 15 July 2008‎ 157 replaces 92 1 1 1 1 1
43 Wings Financial Credit Union BUS 13 July 2009‎ 341 4 4 3 3 3
109 Savore Sanguino SOC 17 May 2009‎ 141 1 1 1 1 1
179 Regional Elite Airline Services BUS 11 February 2009‎ 259 1 1 3 3 3
230 Beth Israel Synagogue (Norwalk, Connecticut) HIST 23 February 2009‎ 90 2 3 3 3 3
273 2007 Munster Senior Hurling Championship Final SOC 11 July 2009‎ 76 3 3 3 3 3
71 Iglesia de Santa María del Conceyu (Llanes) SOC 1 June 2010‎ 36 1 1 1 1 1
115 Andamia tetradactylus BHM 21 May 2010‎ 46 1 1 1 1 1
124 Mesa Grande Band of Diegueno Mission Indians SOC 27 May 2010‎ 203 3 3 3 3 3
158 Great Comet of 1823 SCI 19 December 2010‎ 329 2 2 2 2 2
166 Apparel industry of Sri Lanka BUS 13 June 2010‎ 1823 4 4 4 4 4
8 Coleophora impercepta BHM 15 June 2011‎ 29 1 1 1 1 1
202 2011 Conference USA football season SOC 4 August 2011‎ 111 4 4 4 4 4
254 2011–12 NCAA Division I women's basketball rankings SOC 31 October 2011‎ 60 3 3 3 3 3
292 North American Lacrosse League SOC 8 July 2011‎ 193 3 4 4 4 4
348 Myotis escalerai BHM 12 February 2011‎ 431 5 5 5 5 5