User talk:DracaenaGuianensis/sandbox

Suggestion: Does the IOS section requires three subsections?

For the $35bn IOS costs section to make sense, perhaps the explanation flow should go as follows:

1. Description of the IOS (as is)
2. Funding transfer to the “book end” projects which are not HS (give a very condensed description, don’t go offtopic)
3. Funding spent on overall project design & mgmt beyond the IOS, hopefully some of it is allocated to Phase 1 and some to P.2

They don’t make it easy, do they? XavierItzm (talk) 02:03, 19 March 2024 (UTC)

It turns out our friend @Shannon1 has made an edit for that spot in the meanwhile, so it now says "$28-35 billion" in the introduction. I also ended up doing most editing work for that one paragraph in the draft editor directly, so the final edit now looks quite different: The most up-to-date version is in Sandbox 1, and I forked it into this sandbox for reference. So sorry for the confusion by hopping between pages!

About the $35bn number:

• I agree it would be nice to cleanly separate it. Luckily, all three numbers should be algebraically implied by the official estimate tables.
• For the introduction, it is probably a bit too much detail -- there, for the sake of brevity it should suffice to mention that stuff is happening outside the IOS, so that the three headline numbers are (1) amount spent to date (2) total cost for IOS, and (3) total cost for Phase 1.
• But it would be an excellent clarification to make in the Finances section. Maybe either at the balance-sheet table, or in Current cost estimates, which should -- now that you mention it -- have a para + table dedicated to just the $35bn plan, since this is the most realistic outcome for now? As you'll see from the sea of yellow, that entire section is still in  Working

The financing schemes are confusing for sure -- I am learning myself as we write, and once this draft is dropped into the main namespace, we should all receive honorary accounting degrees. DracaenaGuianensis (talk) 02:38, 19 March 2024 (UTC)

OK, I did some homework. My source document is https://hsr.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/2023-Project-Update-Report-FINAL-022823.pdf

The total cost of the Bookends (B.Ends) is

• 500M for the South non-HS (p. 58, Table 3.5), and it consists of bond money transferred to
– Link US: railroad yard improvements in Union Station
– Rosecrans-Marquart Grade Separation: an overpass in Santa Fe Springs.

• 798 M for the North B.End non-HS (p.57 & T. 3.4), and it is CAHSR bond money given to some other agency/agencies’ project(s) in the north, which are not explained in the document, and which are merely described as “bookend project commitments”

Look, the thing to know is that this 1,298M pork was distributed as a result of a deal with the legislature, and that it is final: since it is simply a giveaway to third parties, it won’t increase no matter how well the money is managed or wasted by the grantees (sorry, “partners"), and it won’t be coming back, either.

Finally, please note the newspaper article currently used as a source for the $35.5 bn figure for the cost of the IOS is '’'correct'’': CAHSR estimates the cost of the IOS at "$32.1 billion (P30)” which means 30% probability and as "$35.3 billion (P65)” which means 65% probability. So the journalist was 100% correct: the most likely scenario is the 65% probable one, $35.3 b. I don’t think we want to know what the 5% P scenario is, but they’re probably looking at 40 b! XavierItzm (talk) 03:03, 19 March 2024 (UTC)

Re the bookends, that great to have, thanks for looking into it (and the links)!

Re the IOS, I think you are looking at Table 3.3 in the 2023 Project Update Report, or Table 5.0.1 in the 2024 Business Plan (they are identical). The $32.1bn (P30) and $35.3bn (P65) you mentioned are the last row, and refer to "171 miles and other Phase 1" costs, which include the three last rows in that table: Project dev Phase 1, Program Wide Support Phase 1 (which I believe just refers to our beloved Authority staff itself, but not sure), and Bookend. So the $35.3bn also includes things outside the IOS -- the number for the IOS itself, including trainsets etc., makes for a subtotal of $29.8 (P30) to $33bn (P65).

I wish I was talking about my bank account, with such numbers! DracaenaGuianensis (talk) 03:23, 19 March 2024 (UTC)