Wikipedia:Reference desk/Archives/Science/2021 June 4
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June 4[edit]
How experts can tell below 18+ are at high risk during third wave COVID19?[edit]
How experts can tell below 18+ are at high risk during third wave COVID19? I thought COVID19 any waves will target any person and their age group is immaterial. Rizosome (talk) 03:47, 4 June 2021 (UTC)
- If vaccination has been based on age groups, then the less-vaccinated ages are more at risk. --184.145.50.201 (talk) 09:21, 4 June 2021 (UTC)
My question is not related to COVID 19 vaccine. Rizosome (talk) 09:42, 4 June 2021 (UTC)
- But it is. This is an epidemiological concern, in other words based on emergent properties. For example, they may be concerned that—even though children rarely get hospitalized or die—an unhindered spread of the disease among children will find its way to those few that would get sick or die. Also, unhindered spread in a population allows time for the virus to evolve, and given that it is transmitting in children, it will evolve to have better fitness in children, which will result in a disease that will kill more children. 2600:1702:2670:B530:F898:DB9:4AE3:2F41 (talk) 10:07, 4 June 2021 (UTC)
- This may be related specifically to the B.1.1.7 lineage, the "UK variant", which has proved to hit children at a much higher rate than earlier strains.[1] This variant, with also a substantially higher transmissibility, is gaining traction in India and may lead to a third wave. --Lambiam 10:21, 4 June 2021 (UTC)
- I believe the problem in India is Lineage B.1.617 or the "India variant", which our article says seems to be more transmissible and results in a slightly higher hospitalisation rate in younger age groups. Alansplodge (talk) 11:13, 4 June 2021 (UTC)
- That variant is causing the current devastating second wave in India. The referenced article was about a predicted third wave, "a few months down the line". --Lambiam 08:55, 5 June 2021 (UTC)
- I believe the problem in India is Lineage B.1.617 or the "India variant", which our article says seems to be more transmissible and results in a slightly higher hospitalisation rate in younger age groups. Alansplodge (talk) 11:13, 4 June 2021 (UTC)
- This may be related specifically to the B.1.1.7 lineage, the "UK variant", which has proved to hit children at a much higher rate than earlier strains.[1] This variant, with also a substantially higher transmissibility, is gaining traction in India and may lead to a third wave. --Lambiam 10:21, 4 June 2021 (UTC)
- But it is. This is an epidemiological concern, in other words based on emergent properties. For example, they may be concerned that—even though children rarely get hospitalized or die—an unhindered spread of the disease among children will find its way to those few that would get sick or die. Also, unhindered spread in a population allows time for the virus to evolve, and given that it is transmitting in children, it will evolve to have better fitness in children, which will result in a disease that will kill more children. 2600:1702:2670:B530:F898:DB9:4AE3:2F41 (talk) 10:07, 4 June 2021 (UTC)
@2600:1702:2670:B530:F898:DB9:4AE3:2F41: Your edit didn't specify the reason behind how vaccine related in it. Rizosome (talk) 12:06, 4 June 2021 (UTC)
- People who have not been vaccinated are at a much greater risk of coming down with COVID-19 disease. As people who are under 18 are less likely to be vaccinated, they are more at risk to get the disease, quod erat demonstrandum. --Jayron32 13:30, 4 June 2021 (UTC)