Wikipedia talk:Featured article review/Monty Hall problem/archive3

The logic in this theory is flawed. Once there are only 2 doors remaining, there is only the possibility of 2 outcomes and not 3. Therefore, the original matrix of 3 possibilities is no longer valid once there are only 2 doors remaining and therefore considering the 3 possibility matrix at this point is completely invalid. Once there are only 2 doors remaining, there are only 2 possible outcomes and therefore the odds are 50/50.

still confused

Consider a new scenario. You are shown two closed doors, one with a car and one with a goat. You choose one. The host than reveals that behind a curtain is a third open door with a goat. Has the probability of correctly choosing the door with the car changed? If so, does revealing additonal doors with goats behind them continue to increase your odds? How many doors have to be revealed to make your odds near certainty? Clearly, adding open doors with goats doesn't change your odds - they're still 1/2.

In the three door case, your chance of winning did improve - from 1/3 to 1/2. At the same time, your chance of losing went from 2/3 to 1/2.

For a simple test, mentally decide that you really want a goat instead of a car. The odds should be the same - but they can't be 2/3 for getting a car AND 2/3 for getting a goat. The cases are exclusive. 71.209.22.1 (talk) 09:10, 1 June 2011 (UTC)