Talk:2007 Pacific typhoon season/March

Week 1[edit]

99W.TD[edit]

99W.INVEST[edit]

New INVEST on the Navy site. — Alastor Moody _{(T + C + U)} 09:53, 2 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC 03/03 0600:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.6N 143.6E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 030031Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS JUST SOUTH OF THE 200 MB NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS, WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE WESTWARD AND POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BECAUSE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS JUST BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
- SpLo T // 07:06, 3 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Unlisted JMA low pressure area. - SpLo T // 04:23, 4 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

JMA TD (<30kt)[edit]

00z: Tropical Depression 10N 144E 1004 hPa, nearly stationary. - グリフオーザー 04:01, 6 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Maybe the first storm in this season. No TCFA from JTWC. --Irfan Faiz 05:48, 6 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

It's just a weak tropical depression. The JMA naming something a TD really has no implications on the strength of a system (think of it as the equivalent of an invest). --Core desat 05:55, 6 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC 060600 POOR. - SpLo T // 08:38, 6 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

JMA 060600 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 09N 143E WEST SLOWLY. - SpLo T // 08:40, 6 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

JMA 18z: Low Pressure Area 08N 145E 1004hPa, nearly stationary - グリフオーザー 22:56, 6 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

It's gone from NRL/FNMOC, but JMA still listing LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 09N 144E ALMOST STATIONARY. as of 070600. - SpLo T // 12:13, 7 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Week 3[edit]

90W.INVEST[edit]

2.0N 142.0E. --Core desat 01:51, 16 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

91W.INVEST[edit]

Possibly a respawn of 90W, 3.2°N 135.0°E. - SpLo T // 13:21, 19 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Gone. -- RattleMan 03:48, 20 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Week 5[edit]

01W.KONG-REY[edit]

92W.INVEST[edit]

3.0ºN 170.0ºE, 15 kts 1006 hPa - グリフオーザー 01:46, 27 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC 30-03/14Z:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.1N 158.1E, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTH OF POHNPEI. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING, AS THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS WEST-TO-EAST ALONG 5N (JUST SOUTH OF CHUUK TO JUST SOUTH OF POHNPEI). ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 300912Z SSMIS PASS REVEAL A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AT THE EASTERN END OF THIS TROUGH. IN FACT, POHNPEI (PTTP) HAS REPORTED 24-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AROUND THREE MILLIBARS. THE DISTURBANCE LIES BENEATH THE DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL, NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE; VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE ASSESSED AS LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
- SpLo T // 14:22, 30 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 06N 157E WNW 10 KT. --Core desat 20:36, 30 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

disturbance east of Chuuk, upgraded to fair by JTWC - グリフオーザー 23:34, 30 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

JMA TD (<30 kt)[edit]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 07N 157E WNW 10 KT. --Core desat 04:06, 31 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

TCFA. --Core desat 07:06, 31 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

JMA TD (30 kt)[edit]

WARNING. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 07.1N 156.6E MARSHALLS MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
- SpLo T // 08:47, 31 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

JMA TD (>30 kt)[edit]

Full JMA TD now. - SpLo T // 13:42, 31 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Depression 01W[edit]

01W from NRL/FNMOC. - SpLo T // 14:13, 31 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

JTWC first warning issued. Forecast to reach typhoon strength in 72h, heading for Guam. - SpLo T // 15:16, 31 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Storm Kong-rey[edit]

35 knots 1000 hPa - グリフオーザー 19:47, 31 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Fricken finally. The first northern hemisphere storm of the year took 4 months to form. But it's here. It's really organized, too. →Cyclone1→ 23:57, 31 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Kind-of late for the WPac. 12.9.32.226 01:04, 1 April 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Yes, the average for 1 April is 1.1 storms. – Chacor 01:12, 1 April 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Typhoon warning now in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan. – Chacor 13:40, 1 April 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Severe Tropical Storm Kong-rey[edit]

Now a 50 knot severe tropical storm from JMA, 60 kt from JTWC. --Core desat 00:18, 2 April 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Typhoon 01W (Kong-rey)[edit]

JTWC now has it as a typhoon (65 kt). CrazyC83 03:08, 2 April 2007 (UTC)[reply]

According to JTWC prognostic, will continue to track poleward in the long term and may make XT-trans or dissipate due to high vertical wind shear in 72h. Meanwhile, should strengthen slightly and then maintain intensity. - ζ pL o T // 13:04, 2 April 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Typhoon Kong-rey[edit]

TY from JMA, still two scenarios possible. - ζ pL o T // 11:54, 3 April 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Downgraded to STS. - ζ pL o T // 13:36, 4 April 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Down to JTWC TS, XT-trans not likely due to low SST and high shear. - ζ pL o T // 14:48, 4 April 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Now off JTWC, becoming extratropical. JMA TS still. - ζ pL o T // 08:46, 5 April 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Gone. - SpLo T // 03:32, 6 April 2007 (UTC)[reply]