User:Chaserh2003/sandbox

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For related races, see 2022 United States elections.
2022 United States Senate elections
← 2020 November 8, 2022
December 6 (Georgia runoff)		 2024 →
35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate
51[a] seats needed for a majority
  Majority party Minority party
 
Leader Chuck Schumer Mitch McConnell
Party Democratic Republican
Leader since January 3, 2017 January 3, 2007
Leader's seat New York Kentucky
Seats before 48 + VP[b][c] 50
Seats after 40[d] 58
Seat change Decrease 8 Increase 8
Popular vote 39,802,675 [e] 39,876,285[e]
Percentage 49.0% 49.1%
Seats up 14 21
Races won 6 29
  Third party
 
Party Independent
Seats before 2[b]
Seats after 2
Seat change Steady
Seats up 0
Races won 0
2022 United States Senate elections in California2022 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma2022 United States Senate election in Alabama2022 United States Senate election in Alaska2022 United States Senate election in Arizona2022 United States Senate election in Arkansas2022 United States Senate elections in California2022 United States Senate election in Colorado2022 United States Senate election in Connecticut2022 United States Senate election in Florida2022 United States Senate election in Georgia2022 United States Senate election in Hawaii2022 United States Senate election in Idaho2022 United States Senate election in Illinois2022 United States Senate election in Indiana2022 United States Senate election in Iowa2022 United States Senate election in Kansas2022 United States Senate election in Kentucky2022 United States Senate election in Louisiana2022 United States Senate election in Maryland2022 United States Senate election in Missouri2022 United States Senate election in Nevada2022 United States Senate election in New Hampshire2022 United States Senate election in New York2022 United States Senate election in North Carolina2022 United States Senate election in North Dakota2022 United States Senate election in Ohio2022 United States Senate election in Oklahoma2022 United States Senate election in Oregon2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania2022 United States Senate election in South Carolina2022 United States Senate election in South Dakota2022 United States Senate election in Utah2022 United States Senate election in Vermont2022 United States Senate election in Washington2022 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
Results of the elections:
     Democratic gain
     Democratic hold      Republican hold
     No election
Rectangular inset (Oklahoma): both seats up for election
Majority Leader before election

Chuck Schumer
Democratic

Elected Majority Leader

Chuck Schumer
Democratic

The 2022 United States Senate elections were held on November 8, 2022, concurrently with other midterm elections at the federal, state and local levels. Regularly scheduled elections were held for 34 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate, the winners of which will serve six-year terms beginning with the 118th United States Congress. Two special elections were held to complete unexpired terms. While pundits considered the Republican Party a slight favorite to gain control of the Senate, Senate Democrats outperformed expectations and expanded the majority they had held since 2021,[2][3] gaining one seat for a functioning 51-49 majority.

Senators are divided into three classes whose terms are staggered so that a different class is elected every two years. All 34 Class 3 Senate seats, last elected in 2016, were up for election in 2022. Prior to the elections, Class 3 consisted of 14 Democrats and 20 Republicans. Special elections were concurrently held in California, to fill Vice President Kamala Harris' unexpired Senate term ending in 2022,[4] and in Oklahoma, to fill the four remaining years of resigning senator Jim Inhofe's unexpired term.[5] Five Republican senators and one Democratic senator; 15 Republicans and 13 Democrats ran for re-election. Prior to the elections, Democrats had held a majority in the Senate since January 20, 2021. There were 48 Democratic senators and two independent senators who caucused with them; Harris' tie-breaking vote as vice president gave Democrats control of the chamber.[2]

While Republicans were slightly favored in several competitive races, a red wave election did not materialize.[6][7][8] Democrats gained one seat, in Pennsylvania, where Democrat John Fetterman won the election to succeed retiring Republican Pat Toomey.[9] All incumbents won re-election, and all other open seats besides Pennsylvania were held by the same party as the retiring senator. For the first time ever since the ratification of the 17th Amendment, no incumbent lost a U.S. Senate primary or general election.[10][f]

The better-than-expected performance of Democrats has been attributed to several factors,[11] including the issue of abortion after Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization,[12] the role of Donald Trump, and alleged extremism or election denialism among Republicans.[13][14][15] The 2022 election cycle was the first time in U.S. history in which multiple Senate races in the same year were contested between two Black nominees (Georgia and South Carolina).[16][g]

Predictions[edit]

Several sites and individuals publish predictions of competitive seats. These predictions look at factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election) and the other candidates and the state's partisan lean (reflected in part by the state's Cook Partisan Voting Index rating). The predictions assign ratings to each seat, indicating the predicted advantage that a party had in winning that seat. Most election predictors use:

  • "tossup" / "battleground": no advantage
  • "tilt" (used by some predictors): minimal, smallest advantage
  • "lean": slight advantage
  • "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
  • "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory
Constituency Incumbent 2022 election ratings
State CPVI[17] Senator Last
election[h] 		Cook
Oct 4,
2022[18] 		IE
Oct 7,
2022[19] 		Sabato
Aug 31,
2022[20] 		Politico
Sep 5,
2022[21] 		RCP
Sep 20,
2022[22] 		Fox
Sep 20,
2022[23] 		DDHQ
Oct 5,
2022[24] 		538[i]
Oct 7,
2022[25] 		Economist
Oct 5,
2022[26] 		WSJ
Oct 7,
2022[27]
Alabama R+15 Richard Shelby
(retiring) 		64.0% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R
Alaska R+8 Lisa Murkowski 44.4% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R (Tshibaka) Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R
Arizona R+2 Mark Kelly 51.2% D
(2020 sp.)[j] 		Lean D Tilt D Lean D Lean D Likely R (flip) Tossup Likely D Likely D Likely D Lean D
Arkansas R+16 John Boozman 59.8% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R
California[k] D+13 Alex Padilla Appointed
(2021)[l] 		Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Lean D Solid D Solid D Solid D Safe D Safe D
Colorado D+4 Michael Bennet 50.0% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D Lean R (flip) Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D
Connecticut D+7 Richard Blumenthal 63.2% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Likely D Tilt R (flip) Likely D Solid D Solid D Safe D Safe D
Florida R+3 Marco Rubio 52.0% R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Safe R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R
Georgia R+3 Raphael Warnock 51.0% D
(2021 sp. runoff)[m] 		Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Likely D Lean D Lean D Tossup
Hawaii D+14 Brian Schatz 73.6% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Solid D Solid D Safe D Safe D
Idaho R+18 Mike Crapo 66.1% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R
Illinois D+7 Tammy Duckworth 54.9% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Tilt R (flip) Solid D Solid D Solid D Safe D Safe D
Indiana R+11 Todd Young 52.1% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R
Iowa R+6 Chuck Grassley 60.1% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R
Kansas R+10 Jerry Moran 62.2% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R
Kentucky R+16 Rand Paul 57.3% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R
Louisiana R+12 John Kennedy 60.7% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R
Maryland D+14 Chris Van Hollen 60.9% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Lean D Solid D Solid D Solid D Safe D Safe D
Missouri R+10 Roy Blunt
(retiring) 		49.2% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R
Nevada R+1 Catherine Cortez Masto 47.1% D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Likely R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
New Hampshire D+1 Maggie Hassan 48.0% D Lean D Tilt D Lean D Lean D Lean R (flip) Lean D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D
New York D+10 Chuck Schumer 70.6% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Tilt D Solid D Solid D Solid D Safe D Safe D
North Carolina R+3 Richard Burr
(retiring) 		51.1% R Lean R Tilt R Lean R Lean R Safe R Lean R Tossup Lean R Tossup Lean R
North Dakota R+20 John Hoeven 78.5% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R
Ohio R+6 Rob Portman
(retiring) 		58.0% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Safe R Lean R Tossup Lean R Tossup Lean R
Oklahoma
(regular) 		R+20 James Lankford 67.7% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R
Oklahoma
(special) 		R+20 Jim Inhofe
(resigning) 		62.9% R
(2020) 		Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R
Oregon D+6 Ron Wyden 56.6% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Lean D Solid D Solid D Solid D Safe D Safe D
Pennsylvania R+2 Pat Toomey
(retiring) 		48.8% R Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Lean R Tossup Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Tossup
South Carolina R+8 Tim Scott 60.6% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R
South Dakota R+16 John Thune 71.8% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R
Utah R+13 Mike Lee 68.2% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Solid R Likely R Safe R Likely R
Vermont D+16 Patrick Leahy
(retiring) 		61.3% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Lean D Solid D Solid D Solid D Safe D Safe D
Washington D+8 Patty Murray 58.8% D Solid D Likely D Safe D Likely D Lean R (flip) Solid D Solid D Solid D Likely D Safe D
Wisconsin R+2 Ron Johnson 50.2% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Tossup Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R
Overall[n] D – 48
R – 48
4 tossups 		D – 48
R – 49
3 tossups 		D – 49
R – 49
2 tossups 		D – 48
R – 48
4 tossups 		D – 42
R – 58
0 tossups 		D – 47
R – 49
4 tossups 		D – 50
R – 47
3 tossups 		D – 50
R – 49
1 tossups 		D – 50
R – 47
3 tossups 		D – 48
R – 49
3 tossups


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  1. ^ 2023 Congressional Record, Vol. 169, Page S22 (January 3, 2023)
  2. ^ a b "2022 Election: Live Analysis and Results". FiveThirtyEight. November 8, 2022. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  3. ^ Hulse, Carl (December 7, 2022). "Democrats Didn't Just Win Georgia. They Secured a Firmer Grip on the Senate". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved December 7, 2022.
  4. ^ Wilson, Reid (September 28, 2021). "California rule change means Padilla faces extra election". The Hill. Archived from the original on September 28, 2021. Retrieved September 28, 2021.
  5. ^ Beavers, Olivia; Everett, Burgess (February 24, 2022). "Inhofe to retire from Senate, teeing up special election in Oklahoma". Politico. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  6. ^ Hounshell, Blake (November 9, 2022). "Five Takeaways From a Red Wave That Didn't Reach the Shore". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  7. ^ Knowles, Hannah; Scherer, Michael (November 9, 2022). "Democrats show strength, leaving fight for control of Congress unresolved". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  8. ^ McGraw, Meridith (November 9, 2022). "Trump's biggest midterm bets don't pay out". Politico. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  9. ^ "Democrat John Fetterman wins US Senate race in Pennsylvania". AP News. Associated Press. November 8, 2022. Retrieved November 10, 2022.
  10. ^ Girous, Greg (December 7, 2022). "Warnock Win Seals Perfect 2022 for Senators Seeking Re-election". Bloomberg Law. Retrieved December 12, 2022.
  11. ^ Koerth, Maggie (November 18, 2022). "So You Think You Can Explain The Election". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 20, 2022.
  12. ^ Radcliffe, Mary (November 17, 2022). "Abortion Was Always Going To Impact The Midterms". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 20, 2022.
  13. ^ Silver, Nate (November 9, 2022). "Candidate Quality Mattered". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 10, 2022.
  14. ^ Levine, Sam; Pilkington, Ed (November 9, 2022). "US midterm voters reject election deniers who support Trump's false claim". The Guardian. Retrieved December 12, 2022.
  15. ^ Wolf, Zachary B. (November 14, 2022). "These Republicans are admitting the party has an extremism problem". CNN. Retrieved November 30, 2022.
  16. ^ Amy, Jeff; Thanawala, Sudhin (May 28, 2022). "In Georgia, 2 Black candidates to compete for Senate seat". The Associated Press. Retrieved December 22, 2022.
  17. ^ "2022 Cook PVI: State Map and List". Cook Political Report. Retrieved August 7, 2022.
  18. ^ "2022 Senate Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. January 14, 2021.
  19. ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
  20. ^ "2022 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved January 28, 2021.
  21. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Politico. Retrieved April 19, 2022.
  22. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2022". RCP. January 10, 2022.
  23. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. September 20, 2022. Retrieved September 20, 2022.
  24. ^ "2022 Senate Elections Model". Decision Desk HQ. August 18, 2022. Retrieved August 18, 2022.
  25. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
  26. ^ "The Economist's 2022 Senate forecasts". The Economist. September 7, 2022. Retrieved September 7, 2022.
  27. ^ "2022 House and Senate Election Outlook". The Wall Street Journal. October 7, 2022. Retrieved October 7, 2022.
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