2024 United States presidential election in California
 | |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
.jpg)
.jpg)
| Elections in California |
|---|
 |
The 2024 United States presidential election in California is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] California voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. California has 54 electoral votes in the Electoral College, the most in the country.[2]
The most populous state in the Union as well as one of the most Democratic, California is a deeply blue state today and has voted Democratic in every presidential election starting in 1992. It has done so by double digits in each of them excluding 2004, when John Kerry won it by 9.95%. It is thus expected that California will be continue its streak, with Vice President Kamala Harris – a native Californian who served as the state's Attorney General from 2011 to 2017 and later represented it in the U.S. Senate from 2017 to 2021 before assuming the vice presidency – being the Democratic nominee for president.
Harris is the first Californian to appear on a major party presidential ticket since Ronald Reagan in 1984, and if elected, she will be the fourth president from California after Herbert Hoover, Richard Nixon, and Reagan, as well as the first Californian and Western Democrat to do so.[a][3][4]
In April 2024, the American Independent Party of California nominated independent candidate, environmental lawyer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (whom resides in the state) as its presidential nominee, despite not seeking the party's nomination.[5]
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The California Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. President Biden won all 424 pledged delegates with nearly 90% of the vote, the largest share of delegates awarded by any contest in the 2024 primaries.
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- >90%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 3,207,687 | 89.1% | 424 | 424 | |
| Marianne Williamson | 146,356 | 4.1% | |||
| Dean Phillips | 100,284 | 2.8% | |||
| Armando Perez-Serrato | 43,105 | 1.2% | |||
| Gabriel Cornejo | 41,390 | 1.2% | |||
| "President" R. Boddie | 25,455 | 0.7% | |||
| Stephen P. Lyons | 21,062 | 0.6% | |||
| Eban Cambridge | 12,758 | 0.3% | |||
| Total (including write-ins): | 3,598,126 | 100.00% | 424 | 73 | 497 |
Republican primary
[edit]The California Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald Trump was challenged by Nikki Haley, the only other major candidate remaining in the Republican primaries. Trump won the state in a landslide, defeating Haley by 60 points and earning all 169 delegates.
The state was the site of the second Republican primary debate, held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library on September 27, 2023.
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 1,962,905 | 79.25% | 169 | 0 | 169 |
| Nikki Haley | 431,876 | 17.44% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 35,717 | 1.44% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 20,210 | 0.82% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 11,113 | 0.45% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rachel Swift | 4,253 | 0.17% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Stuckenberg | 3,909 | 0.16% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 3,577 | 0.14% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 3,336 | 0.13% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 2,476,896 | 100.00% | 169 | 0 | 169 |
Libertarian primary
[edit]Charles Ballay was the only candidate to qualify for the Libertarian Party primary ballot.[11] Chase Oliver later qualified as a write-in candidate.[12]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Charles Ballay | 21,906 | 98.6% |
| Chase Oliver (write-in) | 313 | 1.4% |
| Total: | 22,219 | 100.0% |
Green primary
[edit]Jill Stein, the Green Party's nominee for president in 2012 and 2016, was the only candidate on the California primary ballot, although she was followed by three write-in candidates.[11][12] Stein won the primary and earned all 59 of the state's delegates.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jill Stein | 15,801 | 99.96% | 59 |
| Matthew Pruden (write-in) | 3 | 0.02% | |
| Jorge Zavala (write-in) | 3 | 0.02% | |
| Davi (write-in) | 1 | 0.00% | |
| Total: | 15,808 | 100.0% | 59 |
Peace and Freedom primary
[edit]
- 100%80–85%75–80%70–75%65–70%60–65%55–60%50–55%45–50%40–45%35–40%
- 100%65–70%60–65%55–60%50–55%45–50%40–45%35–40%
- 45–50%40–45%35–40%
- 50%
- 35–40%
- No votes
Three candidates successfully achieved ballot access in the Peace and Freedom Party non-binding presidential primary: Claudia de la Cruz, the nominee for the Party for Socialism and Liberation; Cornel West, who is running an independent campaign after withdrawing from the Green nomination; and Jasmine Sherman.[14] The party's presidential nominee will be chosen by the state central committee in August.[15]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Claudia de la Cruz | 6,430 | 47.0% |
| Cornel West | 5,455 | 39.9% |
| Jasmine Sherman | 1,795 | 13.1% |
| Total: | 13,680 | 100.0% |
American Independent Party
[edit]The sole candidate of the American Independent Party primary was James Bradley, who was simultaneously running for U.S. Senator as a Republican in the blanket primary held on the same day.[11][16] Andrew George Rummel also qualified as an official write-in candidate.[12]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| James Bradley | 45,565 | 99.96% |
| Andrew George Rummel (write-in) | 16 | 0.04% |
| Total: | 45,581 | 100.0% |
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[17] | Solid D | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[18] | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Safe D | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[20] | Safe D | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[21] | Solid D | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[22] | Solid D | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[23] | Safe D | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[24] | Solid D | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP[25] | Solid D | June 26, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his campaign and endorses Trump. | ||||||
| ActiVote[26] | August 2–19, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 65% | 35% | – |
| UC Berkeley IGS[27] | July 31 – August 11, 2024 | 3,765 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 59% | 34% | 7% |
| Biden announces his withdrawal; Harris declares her candidacy. | ||||||
| Trump survives an attempted assassination. | ||||||
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[28][A] | November 11–14, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 38% | 15% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capitol Weekly[29] | July 25–27, 2024 | 1,904 (LV) | – | 59% | 35% | 5% | 0% | 2% | – | – |
| Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Harris declares her candidacy. | ||||||||||
| Capitol Weekly[30] | July 19–22, 2024 | 2,121 (LV) | – | 54% | 33% | 7% | 0% | 4% | – | 2%[c] |
| Capitol Weekly[31] | July 12–14, 2024 | 1,044 (LV) | – | 54% | 35% | 7% | 0% | 3% | – | 2%[d] |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Institute of California[32] | June 24 – July 2, 2024 | 1,261 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 55% | 30% | 15%[e] |
| Public Policy Institute of California[33] | May 23 – June 2, 2024 | 1,098 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 55% | 31% | 14%[f] |
| Public Policy Institute of California[34] | March 19–25, 2024 | 1,089 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 54% | 31% | 14% |
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[35][A] | February 24–27, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 57% | 35% | 8% |
| UC Berkeley IGS[36] | February 22–26, 2024 | 6,536 (LV) | ± 1.5% | 52% | 34% | 14% |
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[37][A] | February 16–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 55% | 33% | 12% |
| Public Policy Institute of California[38] | February 6–14, 2024 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 55% | 32% | 13% |
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[39][A] | January 11–14, 2024 | 1,087 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 54% | 34% | 12% |
| UC Berkeley IGS[40] | January 1–4, 2024 | 4,471 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 56% | 37% | 19% |
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[28][A] | November 11–14, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 37% | 13% |
| Public Policy Institute of California[41] | November 9–16, 2023 | 1,113 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 54% | 30% | 16% |
| UC Berkeley IGS[42] | October 24–30, 2023 | 4,506 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 46% | 31% | 23% |
| Public Policy Institute of California[43] | October 3–19, 2023 | 1,377 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 60% | 29% | 12% |
| Data Viewpoint[44] | October 1, 2023 | 533 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 67% | 33% | – |
| Public Policy Institute of California[45] | August 25 – September 5, 2023 | 1,146 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 57% | 26% | 17% |
| UC Berkeley IGS[46] | August 24–29, 2023 | 6,030 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 51% | 31% | 18% |
| Public Policy Institute of California[47] | June 7–29, 2023 | 1,089 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 57% | 31% | 12% |
| Public Policy Institute of California[48] | May 17–24, 2023 | 1,062 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times[49] | February 14–20, 2023 | 5,149 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 59% | 29% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capitol Weekly[50] | July 19–22, 2024 | 2,121 (LV) | – | 52% | 35% | 6% | 0% | 4% | 3%[g] |
| Capitol Weekly[51] | July 12–14, 2024 | 1,044 (LV) | – | 51% | 33% | 6% | 0% | 5% | 5%[h] |
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[35][A] | February 24–27, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 32% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 8% |
| UC Berkeley IGS[36] | February 22–26, 2024 | 6,536 (LV) | ± 1.5% | 40% | 28% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 16% |
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[37][A] | February 16–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 31% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 10% |
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[39][A] | January 11–14, 2024 | 1,087 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 32% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
| UC Berkeley IGS[40] | January 1–4, 2024 | 4,471 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 47% | 31% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 11% |
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[28][A] | November 11–14, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 31% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 15% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley IGS[42] | October 24–30, 2023 | 4,506 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 43% | 29% | 9% | 4% | 15% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times[49] | February 14–20, 2023 | 5,149 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 56% | 34% | 10% |
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Viewpoint[44] | October 1, 2023 | 533 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 58% | 42% | – |
Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[28][A] | November 11–14, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 35% | 13% |
Gavin Newsom vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probolsky Research[52] | August 4–9, 2022 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 55% | 38% | 7% |
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in California
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ Although Barack Obama was born and raised in Hawaii, he would later reside in Illinois, where his political career would have taken place.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ De La Cruz (PSL) with 2%
- ^ De La Cruz (PSL) with 2%
- ^ "Someone else" with 11%
- ^ "Someone else" with 13%
- ^ De La Cruz (PSL) with 3%
- ^ De La Cruz (PSL) with 4%
References
[edit]- ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ Wislon, Reid (August 11, 2020). "Kamala Harris makes history — as a Westerner". The Hill. Archived from the original on December 15, 2023. Retrieved August 8, 2024.
- ^ Masih, Niha (July 23, 2024). "The dizzying array of firsts for Harris if she wins nomination or election". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on July 23, 2024. Retrieved August 3, 2024.
- ^ "Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will appear on California ballot with this small, far-right party". Sacramento Bee. April 29, 2024.
- ^ "Certified List of Presidential Candidates for voter-nominated offices for the March 5, 2024, presidential primary election" (PDF). Secretary of State of California. December 28, 2023. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
- ^ "California Presidential Primary". Associated Press. March 5, 2024. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
- ^ "Certified List of Presidential Candidates for voter-nominated offices for the March 5, 2024, presidential primary election" (PDF). Secretary of State of California. December 28, 2023. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
- ^ "California Presidential Primary - Republican". California Secretary of State. March 13, 2024. Retrieved March 13, 2024.
- ^ "California Presidential Primary". The AP. May 9, 2024. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
- ^ a b c "Certified List of Candidates" (PDF). California Secretary of State. December 28, 2023. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
- ^ a b c "Certified List of Presidential Write-In Candidates" (PDF). Office of the Secretary of State of California. February 23, 2024. Retrieved March 9, 2024.
- ^ a b c d "STATEMENT OF VOTE MARCH 5, 2024, PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY RESULTS" (PDF). California Secretary of State. April 12, 2024. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 13, 2024. Retrieved April 12, 2024.
- ^ "Certified List of Presidential Candidates for voter-nominated offices for the March 5, 2024, presidential primary election" (PDF). Secretary of State of California. December 28, 2023. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
- ^ Winger, Richard (December 3, 2023). "Peace & Freedom Presidential Primary Ballot Will Contain Three Names". Retrieved December 3, 2023.
- ^ Frisk, Garrett (September 22, 2023). "California Senate Candidate Roundup: September 22, 2023". Diamond Eye Candidate Report. Retrieved September 22, 2023.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ Allis, Victor (August 19, 2024). "Harris Far Ahead in Her Home State". ActiVote.
- ^ Rainey, James (August 14, 2024). "Poll: Harris and Walz build huge lead among likely California voters". Los Angeles Times.
- ^ a b c d Mumford, Camille (November 17, 2023). "California 2024: Tight Race for U.S. Senate Nomination Between Schiff, Porter, Garvey, and Lee; Plurality Remain Undecided". Emerson Polling.
- ^ Mitchell, Paul (August 1, 2024). "CA120: New polls show young voters, Latinos key to Dem hopes in November". Capitol Weekly.
- ^ Mitchell, Paul (July 24, 2024). "CA120: Pour one out for the pollsters". Capitol Weekly.
- ^ Mitchell, Paul (July 24, 2024). "CA120: Pour one out for the pollsters". Capitol Weekly.
- ^ "PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and the Environment". Public Policy Institute of California.
- ^ "Public Policy Institute of California".
- ^ "Public Policy Institute of California" (PDF).
- ^ a b Mumford, Camille (February 29, 2024). "California 2024 U.S. Senate Poll: Schiff 28%, Garvey 20%, Porter 17%; 17% undecided". Emerson Polling.
- ^ a b DiCamillo, Mark (March 1, 2024). "Release #2024-07: Trump dominating next week's California GOP presidential primary. Disaffection with both Biden and Trump is drawing support away from each in a multi-candidate general election field" – via escholarship.org.
- ^ a b Mumford, Camille (February 20, 2024). "California 2024 Poll: Schiff Continues to Lead U.S. Senate Primary with 28%". Emerson Polling.
- ^ "Public Policy Institute of California".
- ^ a b Mumford, Camille (January 18, 2024). "California 2024 Poll: Schiff and Garvey Gain Support in Crowded Primary". Emerson Polling.
- ^ a b "UC Berkeley IGS" (PDF).
- ^ "Public Policy Institute of California".
- ^ a b "UC Berkeley IGS" (PDF).
- ^ "Public Policy Institute of California" (PDF).
- ^ a b "Data Viewpoint" (PDF).
- ^ "PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government". Public Policy Institute of California.
- ^ "UC Berkeley IGS" (PDF).
- ^ "PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and the Environment". Public Policy Institute of California.
- ^ "PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government". Public Policy Institute of California.
- ^ a b DiCamillo, Mark (February 24, 2023). "Tabulations from a February 2023 Poll of California Registered Voters about President Biden and 2024 Presidential Politics" – via escholarship.org.
- ^ Mitchell, Paul (July 24, 2024). "CA120: Pour one out for the pollsters". Capitol Weekly.
- ^ Mitchell, Paul (July 24, 2024). "CA120: Pour one out for the pollsters". Capitol Weekly.
- ^ "DeSantis Shows Surprising Strength Among Some CA Voters – Probolsky Research". www.probolskyresearch.com.
