Jump to content

2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee

← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
TurnoutUnreleased[1]
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,966,865 1,056,265
Percentage 64.19% 34.47%


President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Tennessee voters have chosen electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Tennessee has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[2]

For the third time in a row, Tennessee voted for Republican Donald Trump by a wide margin in the election, with him winning the state by 29.7%, a considerable increase from his 23.2% victory in 2020 and to a lesser extent his 26% victory in 2016.[3] He received more than 1.96 million Tennessee votes which was a record for votes cast for any candidate in state history.[4] This is the best performance from a Republican candidate in Tennessee since Richard Nixon's 37.9% victory 1972.

Prior to the election, all major news organizations once again considered Tennessee a safe red state; the state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000, including by double-digit margins since 2004.

Background

[edit]

Incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden initially ran for re-election and became the party's presumptive nominee.[5] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[6] Biden's withdrawal from the race makes him the first eligible president not to stand for re-election since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968.

Former President and Republican nominee Donald Trump ran for re-election to a second non-consecutive term after losing in 2020.[7] Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gathered the required signatures to be on the ballot.[8] Despite that, he dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump.

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]

The Tennessee Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. President Biden won the state in a landslide, earning all 63 pledged delegates

Final results by county
Popular vote share by county
  Biden
  •   80–90%
      >90%
Tennessee Democratic primary, March 5, 2024[9][10]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 122,803 92.14% 63 63
Uncommitted 10,475 7.86% 0 0
Total: 133,278 100.00% 63 7 70

Republican primary

[edit]

The Tennessee Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald J. Trump was challenged by Nikki Haley, the only other major candidate remaining in the Republican primaries. Trump won the state in a landslide, defeating Haley by 57.8 points and earning all 58 delegates.

Final results by county
Popular vote share by county
  Trump
  •   60–70%
      70–80%
      80–90%
      >90%
Tennessee Republican primary, March 5, 2024[11][12]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 446,850 77.33% 58 0 58
Nikki Haley 112,958 19.55% 0 0 0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 7,947 1.38% 0 0 0
Uncommitted 4,884 0.85% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 1,874 0.32% 0 0 0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 1,714 0.30% 0 0 0
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) 722 0.13% 0 0 0
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) 533 0.09% 0 0 0
David Stuckenberg 352 0.06% 0 0 0
Total: 577,834 100.00% 58 0 58

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[13] Solid R December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[14] Solid R April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe R June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[16] Safe R December 14, 2023
CNalysis[17] Solid R December 30, 2023
CNN[18] Solid R January 14, 2024
The Economist[19] Safe R June 12, 2024
538[3] Solid R June 11, 2024
RCP[20] Solid R June 26, 2024
NBC News[21] Safe R October 6, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
ActiVote[22] October 5−28, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 62% 38%
ActiVote[23] September 24 – October 16, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 62% 38%
ActiVote[24] July 26 – August 29, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 63% 37%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Chase
Oliver
Libertarian
Other /
Undecided
Targoz Market Research[25][A] September 27 – October 8, 2024 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 54% 35% 5% 1% 1% 4%
971 (LV) 56% 35% 5% 0% 1% 3%
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald J. Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[26][B] April 13–21, 2024 510 (LV) 59% 35% 6%
Targoz Market Research[27][A] March 15 – April 2, 2024 1,139 (RV) ± 2.8% 60% 31% 9%
974 (LV) 55% 31% 14%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[28] February 29 – March 3, 2024 216 (RV) 58% 34% 8%[b]
201 (LV) 59% 34% 7%[b]
Targoz Market Research[29][A] December 14–28, 2023 1,139 (RV) ± 2.7% 61% 30% 9%
929 (LV) 63% 31% 5%
Siena College[30][C] November 5–10, 2023 805 (A) ± 3.8% 49% 20% 31%
Targoz Market Research[31][A] October 5–16, 2023 1,075 (RV) ± 2.8% 59% 29% 12%
835 (LV) 61% 30% 9%
Emerson College[32] October 1–4, 2023 410 (RV) ± 4.8% 55% 22% 23%
Targoz Market Research[33][A] June 14–22, 2023 1,120 (RV) ± 2.9% 51% 32% 17%
1,046 (LV) 54% 34% 11%
SSRS/Vanderbilt University[34] April 19–23, 2023 502 (RV) 42% 26% 31%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
Targoz Market Research[35][A] June 20 – July 1, 2024 1,152 (RV) ± 2.8% 55% 28% 7% 10%
962 (LV) 58% 28% 5% 9%
SSRS/Vanderbilt University[36] April 26 – May 9, 2024 1,003 (RV) ± 3.4% 47% 29% 8% 16%[c]
Targoz Market Research[27][A] March 15 – April 2, 2024 1,139 (RV) ± 2.8% 48% 25% 16% 11%
974 (LV) 47% 28% 15% 10%
Targoz Market Research[29][A] December 14–28, 2023 1,187 (RV) ± 2.7% 48% 23% 17% 12%
929 (LV) 51% 25% 16% 8%
SSRS/Vanderbilt University[37] November 14 – December 2, 2023 1,005 (RV) ± 3.4% 45% 26% 12% 17%
Targoz Market Research[31][A] October 5–16, 2023 1,164 (RV) ± 2.8% 46% 18% 22% 14%
872 (LV) 48% 23% 19% 10%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Joe Manchin as an Independent

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Joe
Manchin
Independent
Other /
Undecided
Targoz Market Research[31][A] October 5–16, 2023 1,118 (RV) ± 2.8% 52% 21% 5% 22%
844 (LV) 53% 23% 6% 18%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[26][B] April 13–21, 2024 510 (LV) 52% 35% 13%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[26][B] April 13–21, 2024 510 (LV) 55% 31% 14%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Ron
DeSantis
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Targoz Market Research[33][A] June 14–22, 2023 1,120 (RV) ± 2.9% 46% 32% 22%
977 (LV) 52% 36% 11%
SSRS/Vanderbilt University[34] April 19–23, 2023 502 (RV) 33% 24% 40%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee[38]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican 1,966,865 64.19% +3.53%
Democratic 1,056,265 34.47% −2.98%
Independent
21,535 0.70% N/A
Green 8,967 0.29% +0.14%
Independent
  • Jay Bowman
  • De Bowman
5,865 0.19% N/A
Socialism and Liberation 3,457 0.11% +0.03%
Socialist Workers
988 0.03% −0.05%
Total votes 3,063,942 100.00%
Republican hold

By county

[edit]
County[39] Donald Trump
Republican
Kamala Harris
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Anderson
Bedford
Benton
Bledsoe
Blount
Bradley
Campbell
Cannon
Carroll
Carter
Cheatham 14,987 72.26% 5,464 26.34% 290 1.40% 9,523 45.92% 20,741
Chester
Claiborne
Clay
Cocke
Coffee
Crockett
Cumberland
Davidson 102,256 35.26% 181,862 62.70% 5,918 2.04% −79,606 −27.44% 290,036
Decatur
DeKalb
Dickson 19,002 75.39% 5,913 23.46% 289 1.15% 13,089 51.93% 25,204
Dyer
Fayette
Fentress
Franklin
Gibson 16,346 75.51% 5,100 23.56% 202 0.93% 11,246 51.95% 21,648
Giles
Grainger
Greene
Grundy
Hamblen
Hamilton 97,195 55.72% 74,437 42.67% 2,806 1.61% 22,758 13.05% 174,438
Hancock
Hardeman 5,793 61.63% 3,527 37.53% 79 0.84% 2,266 24.10% 9,399
Hardin
Hawkins
Haywood 3,286 49.40% 3,311 49.77% 55 0.83% −25 −0.37% 6,652
Henderson
Henry 11,269 77.14% 3,286 21.80% 161 1.07% 7,983 55.34% 14,716
Hickman
Houston
Humphreys
Jackson
Jefferson
Johnson
Knox 130,815 58.96% 87,516 39.45% 3,533 1.59% 43,299 19.51% 221,864
Lake
Lauderdale
Lawrence
Lewis
Lincoln
Loudon
Macon
Madison 23,385 58.52% 16,115 40.32% 464 1.16% 7,270 18.20% 39,964
Marion
Marshall
Maury
McMinn
McNairy
Meigs
Monroe
Montgomery 47,795 58.46% 32,736 40.04% 1,224 1.50% 15,059 18.42% 81,755
Moore
Morgan
Obion
Overton
Perry
Pickett
Polk
Putnam
Rhea
Roane
Robertson
Rutherford 88,811 60.15% 56,656 38.37% 2,189 1.48% 32,155 21.78% 147,656
Scott
Sequatchie
Sevier
Shelby 118,917 36.42% 201,759 61.80% 5,821 1.78% −82,842 −25.38% 326,497
Smith
Stewart
Sullivan
Sumner
Tipton
Trousdale
Unicoi
Union
Van Buren
Warren
Washington
Wayne
Weakley
White
Williamson 94,562 65.36% 47,695 32.97% 2,411 1.67% 46,867 32.39% 144,668
Wilson 56,425 69.44% 23,855 29.36% 974 1.20% 32,570 40.08% 81,254
Totals 1,966,865 64.19% 1,056,265 34.47% 40,812 1.34% 910,600 29.72% 3,063,942

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won 8 of 9 congressional districts.[40][user-generated source]

District Trump Harris Representative
1st 78.41% 20.57% Diana Harshbarger
2nd 66.24% 32.38% Tim Burchett
3rd 67.28% 31.41% Chuck Fleischmann
4th 71.19% 27.61% Scott DesJarlais
5th 58.20% 40.21% Andy Ogles
6th 66.81% 31.94% John W. Rose
7th 60.41% 38.13% Mark E. Green
8th 69.99% 28.88% David Kustoff
9th 27.38% 70.84% Steve Cohen

By Grand Division

[edit]
Results by Grand Division
Trump:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

Trump won all three of Tennessee's Grand DivisionsWest, Middle, and East Tennessee. Middle and East Tennessee are solidly Republican, while West Tennessee, owing to its high Black population, was formerly loyal to the Democrats. It has become competitive for Republicans in recent elections. In 2020, Trump had won it with 49.43% to Biden's 49.06%. Democrats had previously won West Tennessee in 2004, 2008, and 2012.[41][42]

Grand Division Trump Harris
West 52.7% 45.9%
Middle 63.1% 35.5%
East 70.9% 27.8%

Analysis

[edit]

A fast-growing Southern state in the heart of the Bible Belt, no Democrat has won Tennessee's electoral votes since Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas, who shared the ticket with favorite son Al Gore, in 1996, nor has it been contested at the presidential level since 2000, when Gore narrowly lost his home state by less than 4 points. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win at least 40% of the state vote was Barack Obama in 2008, and Republicans have occupied all statewide offices in Tennessee since 2011.

Tennessee handed Republican Donald Trump a decisive victory, doing so by a margin of 910,600 votes, making it his third-largest state win in terms of vote count, following Texas and Florida, which are also in the South. This election marks the third consecutive cycle in which a presidential candidate secured over 60% of the Tennesseean vote. Notably, Trump improved his margins in every county and gained significant support across all demographics, performing better in suburban, rural, and urban areas.[43]

Trump was able to increase his support in the Nashville metropolitan area, particularly in the suburban counties of Williamson, Rutherford, Wilson, Sumner, and Cheatham, performing similarly to his 2016 results. He gained ground in every county and even recaptured some support in the Democratic strongholds of Shelby and Davidson Counties, respectively home to Memphis and Nashville, as well as in moderately-red Hamilton County (Chattanooga) and safely-red Knox County (Knoxville).

Trump also came close to flipping majority-Black Haywood County, losing it by just 25 votes. Notably, Haywood County voted Republican in the Senate and congressional race on the same ballot. This was the closest the county has come to voting Republican in a presidential race since 1972.

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ a b "Another candidate" with 4%
  3. ^ "Some other candidate" with 8%
  4. ^ a b c Listed on the ballot without party affiliation.
  5. ^ Replacement for Butch Ware, Stein's vice presidential nominee.

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Poll sponsored by the Beacon Center of Tennessee
  2. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by The Tennessean

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Tennessee Voter Turnout in 2024". Tennessee Secretary of State. November 5, 2024. Retrieved December 6, 2024.
  2. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
  3. ^ a b Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  4. ^ "Secretary of State's Division of Elections Announces Record Turnout, Certification of Nov. 5 Results | Tennessee Secretary of State". sos.tn.gov. Retrieved December 13, 2024.
  5. ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC. Archived from the original on April 25, 2023. Retrieved April 25, 2023.
  6. ^ "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 21, 2024.
  7. ^ Orr, Gabby (November 16, 2022). "Former President Donald Trump announces a White House bid for 2024". CNN.com. Retrieved October 8, 2023.
  8. ^ McCall, J. Holly. "Independent presidential candidate Robert Kennedy, Jr. submits Tennessee ballot petitions • Tennessee Lookout". Retrieved July 18, 2024.
  9. ^ "March 5, 2024 Democratic Presidential Preference Primary" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  10. ^ "Tennessee Democratic Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
  11. ^ "March 5, 2024 Republican Presidential Preference Primary" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  12. ^ "Tennessee Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
  13. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  14. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  15. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  16. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  17. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  18. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  19. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  20. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  21. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  22. ^ Allis, Victor (October 29, 2024). "Trump Stays Far ahead in Tennessee". ActiVote.
  23. ^ Allis, Victor (October 17, 2024). "Trump again far ahead in Tennessee". ActiVote.
  24. ^ Allis, Victor (August 30, 2024). "Trump far ahead in Tennessee". ActiVote. Retrieved August 31, 2024.
  25. ^ "Beacon Poll: October 2024 Results". Beacon Center of Tennessee. October 15, 2024.
  26. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  27. ^ a b "Beacon Poll of Tennessee March 15 to April 2, 2024" (PDF). Beacon Center of Tennessee. April 3, 2024.
  28. ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Super Tuesday States" (PDF). FAU Polling. March 4, 2024.
  29. ^ a b "Beacon Poll of Tennessee Dec. 14 to 28, 2023" (PDF). Beacon Center of Tennessee. January 3, 2024.
  30. ^ Jones, Vivian (December 17, 2023). "Tennesseans back Trump but a nearly third of GOP says party on the wrong track, poll shows". The Tennessean. Archived from the original on September 28, 2024.
  31. ^ a b c "Beacon Poll of Tennessee Oct. 5 to 16, 2023" (PDF). Beacon Center of Tennessee. October 22, 2023.
  32. ^ Mumford, Camille (October 17, 2023). "Tennessee 2024 Poll: Republican Senator Blackburn Leads Democrat Gloria Johnson in Potential Matchup". Emerson Polling.
  33. ^ a b "Beacon Poll of Tennessee June 14 to 22, 2023" (PDF). Beacon Center of Tennessee. July 4, 2023.
  34. ^ a b "Vanderbilt University Tennessee Poll – Spring 2023" (PDF). Vanderbilt University. April 26, 2023.
  35. ^ "Beacon Poll of Tennessee June 20 to July 1, 2024" (PDF). Beacon Center of Tennessee. July 6, 2024.
  36. ^ Clinton, John G.; Geer, Joshua D. (May 22, 2024). "Spring 2024 - Vanderbilt Statewide Poll" (PDF). Vanderbilt University.
  37. ^ "Vanderbilt University Tennessee Poll – Fall 2023" (PDF). Vanderbilt University. December 8, 2023.
  38. ^ State of Tennessee General Election Results, November 5, 2024, Results By Office (PDF) (Report). Secretary of State of Tennessee. December 2, 2024. Retrieved December 2, 2024.
  39. ^ State of Tennessee General Election Results, November 5, 2024, Results By County (PDF) (Report). Secretary of State of Tennessee. December 2, 2024. Retrieved December 2, 2024.
  40. ^ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZHx5E0-5vuXxcZShBgsAl_vwAntkkanGqYQp0owNjoQ/edit?gid=0#gid=0
  41. ^ "2024 Tennessee presidential election by Grand division". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved November 20, 2024.
  42. ^ "2024 Presidential General Election Results | DDHQ". decisiondeskhq.com. Retrieved November 20, 2024.
  43. ^ "Tennessee Presidential Election Results". The New York Times. November 5, 2024. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 12, 2024.