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Pre-election pendulum for the 2022 Australian federal election

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The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or IRV.

The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the crossbenches according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.

Classification of seats as marginal, fairly safe or safe is applied by the independent Australian Electoral Commission using the following definition: "Where a winning party receives less than 56% of the vote, the seat is classified as 'marginal', 56–60% is classified as 'fairly safe' and more than 60% is considered 'safe'."[1]

This Mackerras pendulum includes new notional margin estimates in Victoria and Western Australia due to boundary redistributions.[2][3] Members in italics have declared they will not contest their seats at the election, or have lost their party's preselection.

Government seats (74)
Marginal
Bass Tas Bridget Archer LIB 0.4
Chisholm Vic Gladys Liu LIB 0.5
Wentworth NSW Dave Sharma LIB vs. IND 1.3
Boothby SA Nicolle Flint LIB 1.4
Braddon Tas Gavin Pearce LIB 3.1
Reid NSW Fiona Martin LIB 3.2
Longman Qld Terry Young LNP 3.3
Swan WA Steve Irons LIB 3.3
Higgins Vic Katie Allen LIB 3.7
Leichhardt Qld Warren Entsch LNP 4.2
Robertson NSW Lucy Wicks LIB 4.2
Casey Vic Tony Smith LIB 4.6
Dickson Qld Peter Dutton LNP 4.6
Deakin Vic Michael Sukkar LIB 4.7
Brisbane Qld Trevor Evans LNP 4.9
Lindsay NSW Melissa McIntosh LIB 5.0
Pearce WA Christian Porter LIB 5.2
La Trobe Vic Jason Wood LIB 5.5
Flinders Vic Greg Hunt LIB 5.6
Kooyong Vic Josh Frydenberg LIB vs. GRN 5.6
Hasluck WA Ken Wyatt LIB 5.8
Fairly safe
Ryan Qld Julian Simmonds LNP 6.0
Banks NSW David Coleman LIB 6.3
Cowper NSW Pat Conaghan NAT vs. IND 6.8
Sturt SA James Stevens LIB 6.9
Monash Vic Russell Broadbent LIB 6.9
Bennelong NSW John Alexander LIB 6.9
Menzies Vic Kevin Andrews LIB 7.0
Bonner Qld Ross Vasta LNP 7.4
Goldstein Vic Tim Wilson LIB 7.8
Herbert Qld Phillip Thompson LIB 8.4
Petrie Qld Luke Howarth LNP 8.4
Forde Qld Bert Van Manen LNP 8.6
Flynn Qld Ken O'Dowd LNP 8.7
North Sydney NSW Trent Zimmerman LIB 9.3
Page NSW Kevin Hogan NAT 9.4
Tangney WA Ben Morton LIB 9.5
Safe
Aston Vic Alan Tudge LIB 10.1
Wannon Vic Dan Tehan LIB 10.2
Bowman Qld Andrew Laming LNP 10.2
Farrer NSW Sussan Ley LIB vs. IND 10.9
Canning WA Andrew Hastie LIB 11.6
Moore WA Ian Goodenough LIB 11.6
McPherson Qld Karen Andrews LNP 12.2
Capricornia Qld Michelle Landry LNP 12.4
Fisher Qld Andrew Wallace LNP 12.7
Hume NSW Angus Taylor LIB 13.0
Wide Bay Qld Llew O'Brien LNP 13.1
Mackellar NSW Jason Falinski LIB 13.2
Calare NSW Andrew Gee NAT 13.3
Grey SA Rowan Ramsey LIB 13.3
Fairfax Qld Ted O'Brien LNP 13.4
Durack WA Melissa Price LIB 13.5
Curtin WA Celia Hammond LIB 14.0
Fadden Qld Stuart Robert LNP 14.2
New England NSW Barnaby Joyce NAT vs. IND 14.4
Hinkler Qld Keith Pitt LNP 14.5
Forrest WA Nola Marino LIB 14.6
Wright Qld Scott Buchholz LNP 14.6
Lyne NSW David Gillespie NAT 15.2
Moncrieff Qld Angie Bell LNP 15.4
O'Connor WA Rick Wilson LIB 15.4
Berowra NSW Julian Leeser LIB 15.6
Mallee Vic Anne Webster NAT 15.7
Bradfield NSW Paul Fletcher LIB 16.6
Gippsland Vic Darren Chester NAT 16.7
Parkes NSW Mark Coulton NAT 16.9
Groom Qld Garth Hamilton LNP (b/e) 17.2
Very safe
Mitchell NSW Alex Hawke LIB 18.6
Barker SA Tony Pasin LIB 18.9
Cook NSW Scott Morrison LIB 19.0
Riverina NSW Michael McCormack NAT 19.5
Nicholls Vic Damian Drum NAT 20.0
Maranoa Qld David Littleproud LNP vs PHON 22.5
Opposition seats (69)
Marginal
Macquarie NSW Susan Templeman ALP 0.2
Eden-Monaro NSW Kristy McBain ALP (b/e) 0.4
Lilley Qld Anika Wells ALP 0.6
Cowan WA Anne Aly ALP 0.9
Corangamite Vic Libby Coker ALP 1.0
Blair Qld Shayne Neumann ALP 1.2
Dobell NSW Emma McBride ALP 1.5
Moreton Qld Graham Perrett ALP 1.9
Gilmore NSW Fiona Phillips ALP 2.6
Dunkley Vic Peta Murphy ALP 2.7
Greenway NSW Michelle Rowland ALP 2.8
Griffith Qld Terri Butler ALP 2.9
Hunter NSW Joel Fitzgibbon ALP 3.0
Solomon NT Luke Gosling ALP 3.1
Perth WA Patrick Gorman ALP 3.2
Parramatta NSW Julie Owens ALP 3.5
Richmond NSW Justine Elliot ALP 4.1
Shortland NSW Pat Conroy ALP 4.4
Paterson NSW Meryl Swanson ALP 5.0
Lyons Tas Brian Mitchell ALP 5.2
McEwen Vic Rob Mitchell ALP 5.3
Burt WA Matt Keogh ALP 5.4
Lingiari NT Warren Snowdon ALP 5.5
Werriwa NSW Anne Stanley ALP 5.5
Jagajaga Vic Kate Thwaites ALP 5.9
Fairly safe
Macnamara Vic Josh Burns ALP 6.1
Isaacs Vic Mark Dreyfus ALP 6.4
Oxley Qld Milton Dick ALP 6.4
Rankin Qld Jim Chalmers ALP 6.4
Hindmarsh SA Mark Butler ALP 6.5
McMahon NSW Chris Bowen ALP 6.6
Brand WA Madeleine King ALP 6.7
Fremantle WA Josh Wilson ALP 6.9
Bruce Vic Julian Hill ALP 7.3
Bean ACT David Smith ALP 7.5
Adelaide SA Steve Georganas ALP 8.2
Wills Vic Peter Khalil ALP vs. GRN 8.2
Macarthur NSW Mike Freelander ALP 8.4
Kingsford Smith NSW Matt Thistlethwaite ALP 8.8
Holt Vic Anthony Byrne ALP 8.9
Bendigo Vic Lisa Chesters ALP 8.9
Barton NSW Linda Burney ALP 9.4
Makin SA Tony Zappia ALP 9.7
Safe
Hawke Vic new seat ALP 10.2
Ballarat Vic Catherine King ALP 10.3
Maribyrnong Vic Bill Shorten ALP 10.3
Corio Vic Richard Marles ALP 10.3
Fenner ACT Andrew Leigh ALP 10.6
Whitlam NSW Stephen Jones ALP 10.9
Hotham Vic Clare O'Neil ALP 11.2
Kingston SA Amanda Rishworth ALP 11.9
Franklin Tas Julie Collins ALP 12.2
Chifley NSW Ed Husic ALP 12.4
Lalor Vic Joanne Ryan ALP 12.4
Gellibrand Vic Tim Watts ALP 13.0
Cunningham NSW Sharon Bird ALP 13.4
Watson NSW Tony Burke ALP 13.5
Newcastle NSW Sharon Claydon ALP 13.8
Fowler NSW Chris Hayes ALP 14.0
Spence SA Nick Champion ALP 14.1
Gorton Vic Brendan O'Connor ALP 14.3
Cooper Vic Ged Kearney ALP vs. GRN 14.6
Blaxland NSW Jason Clare ALP 14.7
Grayndler NSW Anthony Albanese ALP vs. GRN 16.3
Canberra ACT Alicia Payne ALP 17.1
Very safe
Fraser Vic Daniel Mulino ALP 18.1
Sydney NSW Tanya Plibersek ALP 18.7
Calwell Vic Maria Vamvakinou ALP 19.6
Scullin Vic Andrew Giles ALP 21.7
Crossbench seats (8)
Marginal
Indi Vic Helen Haines IND vs. LIB 1.4
Mayo SA Rebekha Sharkie CA vs. LIB 5.1
Fairly safe
Warringah NSW Zali Steggall IND vs. LIB 7.2
Hughes NSW Craig Kelly LIB 9.9
Safe
Kennedy Qld Bob Katter KAP vs. LNP 13.3
Dawson Qld George Christensen LNP 14.6
Very safe
Melbourne Vic Adam Bandt GRN vs. LIB 21.8
Clark Tas Andrew Wilkie IND vs. ALP 22.1

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Divisional classifications". Tally Room. Australian Electoral Commission. 11 July 2019. Retrieved 3 November 2022.
  2. ^ Green, Antony (2 August 2021). "2022 Federal Electoral Pendulum". Antony Green's Election. Archived from the original on 3 August 2021. Retrieved 3 August 2021.
  3. ^ "Pendulum". Australian Broadcasting Corporation News. Retrieved 7 May 2022.