2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election

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See also: 2015 Kentucky elections and 2015 United States gubernatorial elections

2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election
← 2011 November 3, 2015 2019 →
Turnout30% (Increase2%)
 
Nominee Matt Bevin Jack Conway
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Jenean Hampton Sannie Overly
Popular vote 511,374 426,620
Percentage 52.5% 43.8%
Bevin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Conway:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80-90%
Governor before election

Steve Beshear
Democratic

Elected Governor

Matt Bevin
Republican

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The 2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election took place on November 3, 2015.[1] Incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Beshear was ineligible to run for a third term due to term limits.[2] Primary elections were held on May 19, 2015.[1]

Despite trailing in most pre-election polls, Republican nominee Matt Bevin defeated Democratic nominee Jack Conway by a margin of 52.5% to 43.8% in the general election. Statewide turnout in this election was 30%. With a margin of 8.7%, this election was the closest race of the 2015 gubernatorial election cycle. As of 2023, this was the only time since 2003 that a Republican was elected Governor of Kentucky.

This is the only instance in history in which Knott County has backed a Republican candidate for governor.

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

  • Running mate: Johnathan Masters[5]
  • Former running mate: Cherokee Schill[4]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Jack Conway/Sannie Overly
Statewide elected officials
Individuals
Members of the Kentucky legislature
Organizations

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jack
Conway 		Geoff
Young 		Undecided
Survey USA May 5–10, 2015 707 ± 3.5% 68% 13% 19%
Survey USA March 3–8, 2015 640 ± 3.9% 61% 12% 27%
Harper Polling January 28–31, 2015 255 ± 6.14% 59% 13% 28%

Results[edit]

Results by county:
  Conway
  •   Conway—60–70%
  •   Conway—70–80%
  •   Conway—80–90%
Democratic primary results[61]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jack Conway 140,627 78.8%
Democratic Geoff Young 37,887 21.2%
Total votes 178,514 100.0%

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

  • James Comer, Agriculture Commissioner of Kentucky, 2012–2016; and former state representative, 2001-2012[66]
  • Running mate: Rodney Coffey, former Menifee County Sheriff, 1999–2014; Kentucky Sheriffs Association President, 2014-2015 [72]

Withdrew[edit]

  • Robert Lee Rosier, U.S. Army veteran[73]
  • Running mate: John Yuen, candidate for the State Senate in 2012[73]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

James Comer/Chris McDaniel
Individuals
Organizations
  • Associated General Contractors[96]
Hal Heiner/K.C. Crosbie
Individuals
Organizations
  • Kentucky Pastors Action Coalition [97]
Matt Bevin/Jenean Hampton
Individuals
  • Hugh Hewitt, author and talk radio personality [98]
  • Sally Oh, co-founder of the Lexington Tea Party [99]
Organizations
  • Cincinnati Enquirer [100]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Cathy
Bailey 		Matt
Bevin 		James
Comer 		Hal
Heiner 		Will T.
Scott 		Undecided
Survey USA May 5–10, 2015 517 ± 4.4% — 27% 26% 25% 8% 14%
Public Policy Polling May 6–7, 2015 501 ± 4.4% — 25% 28% 27% — 20%
Triumph Campaigns March 26, 2015 601 ± 4% — 12% 19% 33% 3% 29%
Survey USA March 3–8, 2015 520 ± 4.4% — 20% 20% 28% 8% 25%
Harper Polling January 28–31, 2015 261 ± 6.07% — 18% 25% 19% 9% 30%
Remington Research January 27–28, 2015 1,000 ± ? — 19% 22% 18% 5% 26%
Public Policy Polling August 7–10, 2014 383 ± ? 11% 25% 20% 18% — 26%
— — 22% 28% — 50%
Public Opinion Strategies February 26–27, 2014 400 ± 4.9% — — 42% 14% — 13%

Results[edit]

Results by county:
  Bevin
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Comer
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
  Heiner
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Scott
  •   30–40%
  •   60–70%
  Tie
  •   20–30%

On May 19, 2015, Matt Bevin won the Republican primary, defeating second-place finisher James Comer by 83 votes.[61]

Republican primary results[61]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Matt Bevin 70,480 32.91%
Republican James Comer 70,397 32.89%
Republican Hal Heiner 57,951 27.10%
Republican Will T. Scott 15,365 7.20%
Total votes 214,187 100.00%

Independents[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

  • Running mate: Heather Curtis, COO of Fark.com and wife of Drew Curtis[101]
  • Running mate: Elisabeth Anderson, retired legal secretary

General election[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[104] Tossup October 26, 2015
Rothenberg Political Report[105] Tilt D October 27, 2015
Sabato's Crystal Ball[106] Lean D October 29, 2015
DKE[107] Tossup October 29, 2015

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jack
Conway (D) 		Matt
Bevin (R) 		Drew
Curtis (I) 		Undecided
Vox Populi October 26–27, 2015 618 ± 3.9% 44% 44% 6% 6%
43% 46% 6% 7%
Survey USA October 23–26, 2015 798 ± 3.5% 45% 40% 6% 10%
WKU Social Science Research Center October 19–25, 2015 770 ± 3.5% 45% 40% 7% 8%
Mason-Dixon October 6–8, 2015 625 ± 4% 43% 41% 6% 10%
Survey USA September 22–27, 2015 701 ± 3.8% 42% 37% 7% 15%
Survey USA July 22–28, 2015 685 ± 3.8% 43% 38% 8% 11%
45% 42% — 13%
Public Policy Polling June 18–21, 2015 1,108 ± 2.9% 35% 38% 6% 21%
38% 40% — 22%
Survey USA May 5–10, 2015 1,677 ± 2.4% 48% 37% — 16%
Survey USA March 3–8, 2015 1,917 ± 2.3% 42% 36% — 22%
Harper Polling January 28–29, 2015 640 ± 3.87% 45% 41% — 14%
Gravis Marketing January 5–6, 2015 608 ± 4% 44% 36% — 20%
Public Policy Polling August 7–10, 2014 991 ± 3.1% 39% 36% — 25%
Hypothetical polling
Conway vs. Bailey
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jack
Conway (D) 		Cathy
Bailey (R) 		Other Undecided
Gravis Marketing January 5–6, 2015 608 ± 4% 43% 30% — 27%
Public Policy Polling August 7–10, 2014 991 ± 3.1% 42% 30% — 28%
Conway vs. Comer
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jack
Conway (D) 		James
Comer (R) 		Other Undecided
Survey USA May 5–10, 2015 1,677 ± 2.4% 45% 39% — 16%
Survey USA March 3–8, 2015 1,917 ± 2.3% 40% 38% — 22%
Harper Polling January 28–29, 2015 640 ± 3.87% 41% 45% — 14%
Gravis Marketing January 5–6, 2015 608 ± 4% 40% 37% — 23%
Garin-Hart-Yang* December 19–21, 2014 608 ± 4% 48% 36% — 16%
Public Policy Polling August 7–10, 2014 991 ± 3.1% 38% 35% — 27%
Conway vs. Heiner
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jack
Conway (D) 		Hal
Heiner (R) 		Other Undecided
Survey USA May 5–10, 2015 1,677 ± 2.4% 48% 36% — 16%
Survey USA March 3–8, 2015 1,917 ± 2.3% 41% 38% — 21%
Harper Polling January 28–29, 2015 640 ± 3.87% 42% 44% — 14%
Gravis Marketing January 5–6, 2015 608 ± 4% 43% 34% — 22%
Garin-Hart-Yang* December 19–21, 2014 608 ± 4% 51% 30% — 19%
Public Policy Polling August 7–10, 2014 991 ± 3.1% 39% 32% — 28%
Gravis Marketing July 17–20, 2014 1,054 ± 3% 45% 36% — 19%
Conway vs. Scott
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jack
Conway (D) 		Will T.
Scott (R) 		Other Undecided
Survey USA May 5–10, 2015 1,677 ± 2.4% 48% 32% — 20%
Survey USA March 3–8, 2015 1,917 ± 2.3% 43% 33% — 24%
Harper Polling January 28–29, 2015 640 ± 3.87% 44% 40% — 16%
  • * Poll for the Kentucky Democratic Party

Results[edit]

Kentucky gubernatorial election, 2015[108][109][110]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Matt Bevin 511,374 52.52% +17.23%
Democratic Jack Conway 426,620 43.82% -11.90%
Independent Drew Curtis 35,597 3.66% N/A
Total votes 973,692 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

Results by county[edit]

County[111] Matt Bevin (R) Jack Conway (D) Other Total votes
# % % # % #
Adair 66.33% 2,727 30.84% 1,268 2.82% 116 4,111
Allen 69.00% 2,344 28.76% 977 2.24% 76 3,397
Anderson 55.34% 3,724 39.16% 2,635 5.50% 370 6,729
Ballard 55.20% 1,312 41.65% 990 3.16% 75 2,377
Barren 57.40% 5,289 38.72% 3,568 3.88% 358 9,215
Bath 46.65% 1,045 49.87% 1,117 3.48% 78 2,240
Bell 58.60% 2,425 37.60% 1,556 3.79% 157 4,138
Boone 65.78% 15,842 30.80% 7,418 3.41% 822 24,082
Bourbon 45.34% 2,202 51.68% 2,510 2.99% 145 4,857
Boyd 51.70% 4,747 45.24% 4,154 3.06% 281 9,182
Boyle 54.72% 3,968 40.65% 2,948 4.63% 336 7,252
Bracken 53.78% 854 42.82% 680 3.40% 54 1,588
Breathitt 49.81% 1,313 45.83% 1,208 4.36% 115 2,636
Breckinridge 56.78% 2,648 39.84% 1,858 3.39% 158 4,664
Bullitt 57.86% 9,856 38.11% 6,492 4.03% 686 17,034
Butler 67.24% 1,786 30.38% 807 2.37% 63 2,656
Caldwell 58.97% 1,838 37.86% 1,180 3.18% 99 3,117
Calloway 55.44% 4,742 41.59% 3,558 2.97% 254 8,554
Campbell 54.15% 10,671 41.90% 8,258 3.95% 779 19,708
Carlisle 60.66% 899 37.85% 561 1.48% 22 1,482
Carroll 46.61% 867 49.62% 923 3.76% 70 1,860
Carter 53.62% 2,405 43.57% 1,954 2.81% 126 4,485
Casey 79.31% 2,836 18.15% 649 2.54% 91 3,576
Christian 56.91% 4,830 40.60% 3,446 2.49% 211 8,487
Clark 54.55% 4,551 41.33% 3,448 4.12% 344 8,343
Clay 71.11% 2,311 26.65% 866 2.25% 73 3,250
Clinton 76.36% 1,531 22.14% 444 1.50% 30 2,005
Crittenden 65.52% 1,450 31.86% 705 2.62% 58 2,213
Cumberland 70.93% 927 26.17% 342 2.91% 38 1,307
Daviess 55.12% 13,483 42.38% 10,366 2.50% 611 24,460
Edmonson 63.02% 1,503 33.75% 805 3.23% 77 2,385
Elliott 40.21% 495 57.35% 706 2.44% 30 1,231
Estill 63.08% 1,770 31.72% 890 5.20% 146 2,806
Fayette 39.72% 27,788 54.64% 38,220 5.64% 3,945 69,953
Fleming 57.65% 1,907 38.81% 1,284 3.54% 117 3,308
Floyd 42.04% 3,390 54.46% 4,392 3.50% 282 8,064
Franklin 35.20% 5,942 58.29% 9,839 6.51% 1,098 16,879
Fulton 51.45% 568 45.65% 504 2.90% 32 1,104
Gallatin 56.16% 739 39.89% 525 3.95% 52 1,316
Garrard 65.67% 2,542 29.91% 1,158 4.42% 171 3,871
Grant 62.51% 2,433 34.07% 1,326 3.42% 133 3,892
Graves 60.84% 5,370 36.13% 3,189 3.04% 268 8,827
Grayson 62.86% 3,246 33.54% 1,732 3.60% 186 5,164
Green 69.66% 2,018 27.82% 806 2.52% 73 2,897
Greenup 57.12% 4,432 40.07% 3,109 2.81% 218 7,759
Hancock 49.93% 1,114 47.69% 1,064 2.38% 53 2,231
Hardin 56.71% 11,586 39.30% 8,029 3.99% 815 20,430
Harlan 62.34% 3,099 33.61% 1,671 4.04% 201 4,971
Harrison 51.15% 2,093 43.45% 1,778 5.40% 221 4,092
Hart 57.48% 2,043 38.80% 1,379 3.71% 132 3,554
Henderson 47.19% 4,837 49.92% 5,117 2.90% 297 10,251
Henry 52.75% 2,126 42.68% 1,720 4.57% 184 4,030
Hickman 61.43% 771 36.49% 458 2.07% 26 1,255
Hopkins 60.48% 5,802 36.73% 3,524 2.79% 268 9,594
Jackson 83.36% 2,310 14.18% 393 2.45% 68 2,771
Jefferson 38.57% 74,427 58.16% 112,232 3.27% 6,302 192,961
Jessamine 61.93% 7,581 33.77% 4,134 4.30% 526 12,241
Johnson 65.39% 3,040 30.80% 1,432 3.81% 177 4,649
Kenton 57.25% 18,007 39.11% 12,301 3.64% 1,145 31,453
Knott 55.88% 1,612 39.55% 1,141 4.58% 132 2,885
Knox 67.35% 3,706 29.69% 1,634 2.96% 163 5,503
Larue 59.79% 2,009 36.13% 1,214 4.08% 137 3,360
Laurel 74.48% 8,781 22.59% 2,663 2.93% 345 11,789
Lawrence 60.87% 1,616 36.65% 973 2.49% 66 2,655
Lee 67.84% 1,042 27.47% 422 4.69% 72 1,536
Leslie 77.43% 1,654 20.18% 431 2.39% 51 2,136
Letcher 54.65% 2,360 41.11% 1,775 4.24% 183 4,318
Lewis 73.56% 1,833 23.43% 584 3.01% 75 2,492
Lincoln 64.36% 3,289 31.82% 1,626 3.82% 195 5,110
Livingston 57.49% 1,340 39.77% 927 2.75% 64 2,331
Logan 58.49% 2,345 39.04% 1,565 2.47% 99 4,009
Lyon 52.32% 1,208 45.17% 1,043 2.51% 58 2,309
Madison 55.87% 10,268 39.98% 7,348 4.16% 764 18,380
Magoffin 53.86% 1,229 43.25% 987 2.89% 66 2,282
Marion 41.20% 1,591 55.20% 2,132 3.60% 139 3,862
Marshall 53.26% 5,969 43.09% 4,830 3.65% 409 11,208
Martin 73.25% 1,268 24.21% 419 2.54% 44 1,731
Mason 52.43% 1,792 44.79% 1,531 2.78% 95 3,418
McCracken 58.42% 9,028 39.03% 6,031 2.55% 394 15,453
McCreary 65.42% 1,362 31.12% 648 3.46% 72 2,082
McLean 56.57% 1,364 40.81% 984 2.61% 63 2,411
Meade 51.37% 3,310 44.04% 2,838 4.59% 296 6,444
Menifee 53.60% 1,160 41.45% 897 4.94% 107 2,164
Mercer 60.22% 3,517 35.17% 2,054 4.61% 269 5,840
Metcalfe 57.76% 1,344 38.16% 888 4.08% 95 2,327
Monroe 67.32% 1,642 29.56% 721 3.12% 76 2,439
Montgomery 54.61% 3,271 41.39% 2,479 4.01% 240 5,990
Morgan 54.93% 1,355 40.90% 1,009 4.18% 103 2,467
Muhlenberg 49.30% 3,613 47.12% 3,453 3.58% 262 7,328
Nelson 48.35% 4,902 48.14% 4,880 3.51% 356 10,138
Nicholas 38.20% 563 58.14% 857 3.66% 54 1,474
Ohio 59.41% 3,115 38.15% 2,000 2.44% 128 5,243
Oldham 60.54% 10,896 35.58% 6,403 3.88% 699 17,998
Owen 56.10% 1,444 38.85% 1,000 5.05% 130 2,574
Owsley 70.47% 580 26.73% 220 2.79% 23 823
Pendleton 59.92% 1,567 35.79% 936 4.28% 112 2,615
Perry 62.00% 3,276 35.14% 1,857 2.86% 151 5,284
Pike 54.76% 6,146 42.24% 4,741 2.99% 336 11,223
Powell 52.48% 1,335 43.63% 1,110 3.89% 99 2,544
Pulaski 72.00% 10,623 24.83% 3,664 3.17% 467 14,754
Robertson 53.12% 247 43.44% 202 3.44% 16 465
Rockcastle 74.33% 2,536 21.81% 744 3.87% 132 3,412
Rowan 46.67% 2,179 49.71% 2,321 3.62% 169 4,669
Russell 72.08% 3,312 24.90% 1,144 3.03% 139 4,595
Scott 51.32% 6,165 43.55% 5,232 5.14% 617 12,014
Shelby 56.74% 6,573 39.49% 4,575 3.76% 436 11,584
Simpson 59.57% 1,652 38.19% 1,059 2.24% 62 2,773
Spencer 62.84% 3,169 33.81% 1,705 3.35% 169 5,043
Taylor 61.28% 3,852 35.95% 2,260 2.77% 174 6,286
Todd 62.23% 903 34.67% 503 3.10% 45 1,451
Trigg 55.01% 1,746 42.28% 1,342 2.71% 86 3,174
Trimble 54.51% 1,033 42.06% 797 3.43% 65 1,895
Union 47.53% 1,829 50.10% 1,928 2.36% 91 3,848
Warren 55.17% 12,411 41.58% 9,354 3.25% 730 22,495
Washington 57.38% 1,796 38.50% 1,205 4.12% 129 3,130
Wayne 64.54% 2,412 33.15% 1,239 2.30% 86 3,737
Webster 55.82% 1,567 41.61% 1,168 2.57% 72 2,807
Whitley 69.73% 4,772 27.13% 1,857 3.14% 215 6,844
Wolfe 46.15% 689 51.11% 763 2.75% 41 1,493
Woodford 47.53% 3,804 46.28% 3,704 6.19% 495 8,003

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican[edit]

By congressional district[edit]

Bevin won 4 of 6 congressional districts. Conway won 2, including one held by a Republican.[111]

District Bevin Conway Representative
1st 58.01% 39.15% Ed Whitfield
2nd 56.96% 39.45% Brett Guthrie
3rd 37.63% 59.14% John Yarmuth
4th 58.49% 37.83% Thomas Massie
5th 62.74% 33.99% Hal Rogers
6th 46.21% 48.65% Andy Barr

References[edit]

  1. ^ a b Richard Pérez-Peña. "Matt Bevin Prevails as James Comer Concedes Kentucky Governor Primary - The New York Times". Nytimes.com. Retrieved November 6, 2019.
  2. ^ Haberkorn, Jennifer (August 31, 2013). "Kentucky's embrace of Obamacare". Politico. Retrieved November 6, 2019.
  3. ^ a b Ryan Alessi (May 5, 2014). "Jack Conway set to announce 2015 ticket for governor with Rep. Sannie Overly". Mycn2.com. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
  4. ^ a b Wynn, Mike (November 17, 2014). "New gubernatorial candidate touts 'BS detector'". The Lexington Courier-Journal. Retrieved November 20, 2014.
  5. ^ Mike Wynn (January 28, 2015). "Matt Bevin enters Kentucky governor's race". The Courier-Journal. Retrieved January 28, 2015.
  6. ^ "Jerry Abramson announces he will not run for governor". WLKY.com. Retrieved August 6, 2013.
  7. ^ Lana Bellamy (December 3, 2014). "Adkins not ruling out run at governor". The Lexington Courier-Journal. Retrieved December 5, 2014.
  8. ^ a b Kevin Wheatley (December 2, 2014). "House Majority Floor Leader Rocky Adkins says he's been contacted about running for governor, lt. governor in 2015". Mycn2.com. Retrieved December 5, 2014.
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  10. ^ Brammer, Jack (May 10, 2013). "Ben Chandler is named director of Kentucky Humanities Council | Politics and Government". Kentucky.com. Retrieved July 11, 2013.
  11. ^ Truman, Cheryl. "Uncommonwealth: In his new role, Ben Chandler begins 'a labor of love' | Stage and Dance". Kentucky.com. Retrieved July 11, 2013.
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  17. ^ Storm, Nick (June 18, 2014). "Edelen won't run for governor in 2015; Announces bid for second term as auditor". Mycn2.com. Retrieved June 18, 2014.
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  19. ^ "Alison Lundergan Grimes running for re-election as Secretary of State". WDRB.com. January 26, 2015. Retrieved January 26, 2015.
  20. ^ Alessi, Ryan (December 29, 2011). "Crit Luallen says if she runs statewide again it 'would be for governor'". Mycn2.com. Retrieved December 7, 2012.
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  27. ^ a b c d "High profile Democrats endorse Conway/Overly ticket in 2015 governor's race". CN2. June 26, 2014. Retrieved August 27, 2014.
  28. ^ "We are honored to have Louisville Metro Council President Jim King's support for our ticket in 2015". Twitter. December 23, 2014. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
  29. ^ "We are proud to have Louisville Metro Councilman @CMDavidYates's support". Twitter. January 5, 2015. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
  30. ^ "We are honored to have Commonwealth's Attorney Shane Young's support for our ticket". Twitter. January 6, 2015. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
  31. ^ "We are honored to have Commonwealth's Attorney Dan Boaz's support for our campaign". Twitter. December 17, 2014. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
  32. ^ "We are proud to have Sheriff Les Burgett's support for our ticket in 2015". Twitter. December 8, 2014. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
  33. ^ "Honored to have Judge Carpenter's endorsement". Twitter. October 28, 2014. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
  34. ^ "We are honored to have Mason County Attorney John Estill's endorsement for the Conway-Overly ticket in 2015". Twitter. December 9, 2014. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
  35. ^ "We are honored to have John's support". Twitter. September 3, 2014. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
  36. ^ "Sannie & I are grateful for Steve's support. Steve is a dynamic leader for the Henderson community". Twitter. August 22, 2014. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
  37. ^ "We are honored to have David O'Neill's support for our ticket". Twitter. January 16, 2015. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
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  39. ^ "We are honored to have Nicholas County Judge/Executive Mike Pryor's support for our campaign". Twitter. January 15, 2015. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
  40. ^ "Grateful for Judge Turner's support for our ticket". Twitter. December 1, 2014. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
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  54. ^ "We are excited to announce Rep. Doc Watkins has backed the Conway-Overly ticket!". Twitter. January 16, 2015. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
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External links[edit]

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